NBA Insiders See a 4-Man Race for MVP After Season's First Quarter

Despite a number of postponed games, and various other complications from running a season amid a pandemic, the NBA is roughly a quarter of the way through its abridged, 72-game calendar. The dust has largely settled in establishing which teams are true contenders and which players have taken a step forward. 

And sifting through these early impressions, it seems four stars have emerged as front-runners for the league's annual MVP award during conversations with league insiders: Kevin Durant, Joel Embiid, Nikola Jokic and LeBron James. "A lot of good storylines," said one front-office executive, "but the guy who helps his team pull away from the pack will probably get the nod."

From the jump of Brooklyn's scorching-hot 2-0 start, in which the Nets blasted Golden State by 26 and Boston by 28 three nights later, Durant forced his name into early MVP conversations. Now through 14 games, he's still scoring 30.4 per night—a mark that would be the second-highest of his career, trailing only his MVP season in 2013-14—while seeing the most minutes (36.4) since he collected that hardware, all in his first stint returning from a devastating injury. 

"He's just playing at such a high level there are times that I forget that he's coming back from an Achilles rupture," said another Eastern Conference executive. Perhaps that context, for an award that has always seemed to ebb and flow with the corresponding narrative—see Russell Westbrook's triple-doubles—will ultimately deliver Durant's second Maurice Podoloff Trophy. 

With James Harden now in the fold, Brooklyn clearly has the firepower to contend for the top spot in the East. But some league personnel suggested the presence of another one-time MVP in Harden may actually hurt Durant's chances of claiming the award this season. The Nets' struggling defense presents another potential roadblock. Although, amid Brooklyn's shaky attempts to guard opponents, Durant's defensive contributions have made an impression among onlookers around the league. 

"On a team that plays no defense, his individual effort and skill level is so much better than I actually gave him credit for," said the aforementioned East official. "He's been aggressive protecting the rim, rebounding, and it's really hard to get off a shot over top of him on the perimeter late in the shot clock."

Durant's biggest competition for MVP might reside in his own division, as Joel Embiid, fresh off winning Eastern Conference Player of the Week honors, continues posting astronomical numbers while powering Philadelphia to the best record in the East. "Embiid has stood out due to his consistency," said one team scout. "He's having the year we all knew he was capable of." 

The Sixers' All-Star center appears more than engaged under new head coach Doc Rivers, averaging career highs in scoring and shooting efficiency across the board, including a ridiculous 58.7 percent from mid-range, per NBA.com. Yet there are still a handful of Embiid skeptics. "He's proven that he can play well and refocus. Doing it for 40-50 straight games, we just haven't seen it yet," said one Western Conference coach. "At the end of the day, he just hasn't won yet. And I'm still not sure he can win." 

The Nuggets' centerpiece perhaps stands as the perfect foil to that argument. Nikola Jokic, of course, helped steer Denver to the conference finals a year ago. Since then, he's dug the Nuggets out from a 1-4 start to win nine of their last 12, all while his co-star Jamal Murray has been inconsistent in the early going. "Jokic is the leader of that team," said one executive.  

Denver's big man matched Embiid in taking home Western Conference Player of the Week honors while also serving as a creative pole of the Nuggets—the league's third-best offense that would rank as one of the most dangerous in NBA history. "He's 0.7 assists away from averaging a triple-double," said another Western Conference front-office figure. "Saying that out loud seems like I misspoke, but here we are. The Joker is not even in the prime of his career, and he's putting up huge numbers. We have not seen anything like this from a center in the modern NBA."

But like most conversations around the league, this MVP discussion naturally comes back to LeBron James. Dating back to his string of earlier MVP honors, James himself set a precedent for what present-day awards reflect. League personnel and media voters now look for players to make a leap every season, or at least add another element to their games. That expectation stems directly from James' constant improvement. 

"Year 18, best record in the league, 10-0 on the road, just in your face doing it on both ends of the floor," said one team's capologist. "It's hard not to marvel at him." 

Los Angeles is once again a dominant defensive force. An entire 2.2 points per possession stand between the Lakers' leading defense and Memphis' second-best unit. It would be easy for a defending champion, let alone one loaded with veterans, to coast through this regular season—especially after such a short break following the Finals. But here is the 36-year-old James, having played in all 18 of the Lakers' outings, posting his same 25, eight and seven, all while sniping a career-best 41.2 percent of a career-high 6.6 threes per game. 

"I think he just wants to win it. I think the media sentiment will be like Russell Wilson in football," said one Western Conference coach. "There was all this talk about how he'd never won [MVP] and he started off on a tear, then he just wasn't good enough. We have some of that same sentiment where, obviously LeBron has won it four times, but it's been a long time since his last, and how has he not won another one?" 

Three-quarters of the season still loom in the distance. The NBA campaign remains in constant flux amid ever-changing health and safety protocols. Maybe the league's end-of-year hardware will reflect the one constant the NBA has known for almost two decades: James as basketball's most valuable player.