The Athletic’s guide to the Champions League knockout phase

Sixty-nine days after the group stage came to an end, the Champions League is back. Manchester City are many people’s favourites to win the competition, even though they could be without injured duo Kevin De Bruyne and Sergio Aguero for the first leg of their last-16 meeting with Borussia Monchengladbach. If they do go all the way, it would be manager Pep Guardiola’s first European title in a decade.

They face stern competition from both of Guardiola’s former employers, as Bayern Munich — the competition’s reigning champions — and Barcelona are also fancied. Ronald Koeman’s Barcelona face a tough early test to reach the quarter-finals, as they meet Mauricio Pochettino’s Paris Saint-Germain. Bayern meet the oldest team in the competition, Lazio, who feature in the last-16 for the first time since 2000-01 (back when that meant a second group stage).

There are plenty of other interesting match-ups among the round of 16 fixtures, so who better to go through the tactical and analytical aspects of them than The Athletic’s Michael Cox and Tom Worville?

To get a handle on team style and the quality of play displayed in the Champions League so far, The Athletic have built MORE pizza charts. These show a side’s rank in each metric compared to the other teams left in the competition, with the actual stat itself shown on the outside of the chart.

Here are a couple of key definitions:

Barcelona

Koeman’s preferred formation has evolved regularly throughout his debut season as Barcelona coach. Initially, he favoured 4-2-3-1, which sometimes appeared more like 4-4-2, before briefly moving to 3-4-2-1 over the Christmas period, then eventually settling on the 4-3-3 system that feels most natural for the Catalan club.

Indeed, Koeman has turned to perhaps the closest approximation of the classic Barcelona of a decade ago — Lionel Messi as the central attacker, with Antoine Griezmann and Ousmane Dembele breaking in behind from the wide positions.

More interesting, however, has been the midfield zone. Frenkie de Jong, previously considered a deep midfielder who could carry the ball forward aggressively, has been repositioned in a more attacking role, breaking forward from the right of the trio and often getting on the scoresheet. He’s scored six goals in the last two months — as many as he’d managed in the previous two and a half seasons. Pedri is also now a regular, playing a tidy role to the left.

After last season’s humiliating 8-2 quarter-final exit at the hands of eventual winners Bayern, Barcelona’s defence is the main concern. Sergio Busquets continues in the holding role, although questions have been asked of his mobility at age 32, while Gerard Pique has been out since November with a serious knee injury and his replacement Ronald Araujo is also a doubt for Tuesday’s first leg at home to PSG.

Key stat: Barcelona averaged the most shots, possession and field tilt — which is the share of final third passes that the team makes — in the group stage, admittedly in a top-heavy pool also including Juventus, Dynamo Kyiv and Ferencvaros.

Paris Saint-Germain

Paris Saint-Germain have changed coach since the group stage, replacing defeated 2020 finalist Thomas Tuchel with defeated 2019 finalist Mauricio Pochettino. Upon the former Tottenham manager’s appointment, there was plenty of speculation about whether Neymar and Kylian Mbappe would be capable of adapting to Pochettino’s approach, which surely misunderstood the power dynamic in Paris — Pochettino’s job is to adapt his system to suit the preferences of the world’s two most expensive players.

That situation has been complicated by the fact Neymar will miss the first leg of their last-16 against his previous side Barcelona this week because of a thigh injury, and may be a doubt for the second leg on March 10, too.

Tuchel was using a three-man defence during his final days at the club but Pochettino has switched to a four-man defence. Neymar and Mbappe have tended to alternate roles in the middle and on the left of a 4-2-3-1, with Angel Di Maria, as ever, drifting inside from the right onto his stronger left foot, and usually Mauro Icardi — or sometimes Everton loanee Moise Kean — leading the line.

Marquinhos, who spent much of last season playing as a holding midfielder, is now a permanent centre-back after the summer departure of compatriot Thiago Silva to Chelsea.

Key stat: PSG were the most-fouled side in the group stage, drawing 96.

RB Leipzig

Leipzig are probably the most tactically flexible side left in this season’s competition, with coach Julian Nagelsmann capable of deploying everything from a 4-3-3 to a 3-4-2-1, and regularly switching systems within matches. His most common approach in recent weeks has been more like 3-1-4-2: the type of formation he used in the knockout phase last season.

Within those systems, Nagelsmann’s players rotate positions in clever, structured ways — particularly with a wing-back tucking inside and the central midfielder alongside him aggressively overlapping into space, which often causes opponents problems down the flanks.

Having sold last season’s top scorer Timo Werner to Chelsea, Leipzig don’t have one standout individual and remarkably, for a side second in the Bundesliga, no one has scored more than four league goals. The tall Alexander Sorloth has forced his way into the side, but hasn’t been prolific (which won’t surprise fans of his previous club, Crystal Palace), with Christopher Nkunku often making runs off him.

In deeper positions, Marcel Sabitzer pulls the strings and Manchester City old boy Angelino offers tremendous energy and crossing ability down the left, while Bayern-bound Dayot Upamecano remains one of the most promising centre-backs around.

Key stat: Leipzig were the youngest side in the group phase, with a weighted average age of 25.4. They also only used 19 players in their six group games — joint-lowest, with Atletico Madrid, of the 16 sides who have made it to the knockout stages.

Liverpool

Liverpool’s disappointing defence of their Premier League crown owes much to the complete absence of their regular centre-backs, with Virgil van Dijk, Joel Matip and Joe Gomez all unavailable for Jurgen Klopp’s side. In big matches, Klopp has elected to field a makeshift duo of Jordan Henderson and Fabinho, two midfielders, in central defence and Liverpool probably deserve credit for not conceding more than once in any Premier League game between the 2-2 draw with Everton on October 17, when Van Dijk sustained his ACL injury, and last weekend’s 4-1 loss to Manchester City.

The knock-on problem, though, is that their build-up play has been affected in midfield, and Van Dijk’s pinpoint balls downfield have also been missed. Thiago Alcantara hasn’t quite yet demonstrated his Bayern form in midfield, although suggestions he has hampered Klopp’s side’s rhythm are probably exaggerated, and less important than injuries to defenders and a fatigued forward line.

Klopp sometimes used a 4-2-3-1 or 4-2-4 system in the autumn when Diogo Jota was in fine form but he’s been another player out injured recently, so it’s usually been the tried and tested 4-3-3 of recent seasons. Roberto Firmino drops deep to supply Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah, who narrow their positions to allow full-backs Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold forward on the overlap.

Questions persist, though, about whether Liverpool still have the requisite physical level to match their performances of recent seasons.

Key stat: Liverpool have had the Champions League’s most direct attacks — moves that start in a team’s own half and result in a shot or a touch in the box within 15 seconds — with 25.

Porto

Sergio Conceicao’s side struggled in the opening weeks of the campaign while he was chopping and changing system, including two shock 3-2 defeats in the Portuguese league to Maritimo and Pacos de Ferreira, but their domestic form improved after a switch to a 4-4-2, and their Champions League form also fits that pattern. Following a 3-1 loss to Manchester City on the first match day, Porto collected 13 points from their remaining five games, keeping five clean sheets.

This is a hard-working, compact and well-organised side who depend on the combination of Moussa Marega and Mehdi Taremi for their goals, with the major supply line coming from right-sided Jesus Corona, a tricky dribbler. The midfield duties are clear — Mateus Uribe sits deep and breaks up play, and Sergio Oliveira is given more license to create.

Defensively, the cornerstone is veteran Pepe. He turns 38 this month and is surprisingly mobile for his age, while still boasting great aerial power. Chancel Mbemba is his usual partner, and for the goalless draw at home to Manchester City in early December, Conceicao moved away from a 4-4-2 for the first time in months, using a 3-5-2, which could also be an option against last-16 opponents Juventus’ flexible system.

Key stat: Porto created chances just worth 5.4 expected goals (xG) in their six group games, the lowest total of all teams to reach the last 16.

Juventus

Andrea Pirlo endured a difficult start to his coaching career, having taken over from Maurizio Sarri in the summer, but there have been some positive signs of progress in recent weeks and a stereotypically Italian defensive display to secure a crucial 0-0 last week in the Coppa Italia semi-final second leg against Inter Milan.

Pirlo has generally deployed a fluid system: roughly 4-4-2 without possession and more 3-4-1-2 when in attack. This is flexible and dependent upon individuals. So, for example, if left-back Alex Sandro is charged with overlapping, left-sided midfielder Aaron Ramsey would drift infield, while right-back Matthijs de Ligt would tuck into a back three. Or, if the overlapper is right-back Juan Cuadrado, right-sided midfielder Weston McKennie would move centrally and left-back Danilo would play cautiously. One wide player, often Federico Chiesa or Dejan Kulusevski, stays wider on the opposite flank.

What of the spine? Defensively, Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini are still defending ruggedly and distributing the ball effectively. Rodrigo Bentancur and Adrien Rabiot are probably the first-choice midfield duo, although Pirlo has chopped and changed, and doesn’t quite have a “Pirlo” in that zone. Up front, Cristiano Ronaldo is obviously the star, partnered by Alvaro Morata or Paulo Dybala, whose recent form has been inconsistent.

Key stat: Cuadrado had seven goal-creation actions — the offensive actions directly leading to a goal, such as passes, dribbles and drawing fouls — in the group stage, joint-most alongside Messi.

Sevilla

It feels unusual to see Sevilla in the premier continental club competition rather than battling their way through to win yet another Europa League but Julen Lopetegui’s side are in excellent domestic form and have a track record of excellence in two-legged ties.

At their best, Sevilla are a perfect combination of comfortable in possession and capable of striking on the counter-attack. Lone centre-forward Youssef En-Nesyri is a pure striker all about intense running and clinical finishing, summarised by the fact he’s recorded 13 La Liga goals in 22 games this season but has zero assists.

Liverpool old boy Suso cuts inside from the right to finish with his left foot and on the opposite flank, Lucas Ocampos can beat the opposition right-back by going inside or out. Luuk de Jong, who couldn’t buy a goal during a spell on loan at Newcastle United seven years ago but was last season’s Europa League final hero, is their Plan B.

Deeper in the side, there are some familiar veterans — Ivan Rakitic has returned to the club after six years with Barcelona to dictate play from the left of midfield, Fernando is playing a steady holding role, and his former Manchester City team-mate Jesus Navas is now established as a right-back but still scampers up and down the touchline. The centre-back combination of sturdy Brazilian Diego Carlos and hugely promising Frenchman Joules Kounde works very effectively.

Key stat: Sevilla created 18 chances from crosses in the group stage, more than any other team.

Borussia Dortmund

Dortmund head into the knockout phase with an interim manager after Lucien Favre was replaced just before Christmas by his assistant Edin Terzic. Recent results have not been much better, although Dortmund haven’t regularly been outclassed.

Terzic’s decision to base the side around Marco Reus playing the No 10 role hasn’t worked out — his form has been poor in recent weeks and the 31-year-old rarely lasts the 90 minutes. He is, at least, surrounded by tremendously exciting young attackers in Erling Haaland, Jadon Sancho and Giovanni Reyna. Haaland is capable of winning games on his own and Sancho’s form has recovered after a slow start to the season. Still, they’re both attracting attention because of their transfer value rather than their consistency for Dortmund.

In midfield, Thomas Delaney covers the ground and performs the defensive duties while Julian Brandt has more attacking responsibility, although, at times, their chief creator is left-back Raphael Guerreiro.

The major issue is Dortmund’s defensive record, however. Goalkeeper Roman Burki hasn’t impressed domestically, although he was excellent in the Champions League group phase.

Key stat: Burki was the best shot-stopper in the group stage, conceding just one goal from chances worth 4.5 on average according to post-shot xG in his four appearances.

Atletico Madrid

Having spent years drilling his side in some variation of 4-4-2, Diego Simeone has made a radical departure from that system, instead lining up in a formation that is sometimes described as a 3-5-2 but is probably closer to a diamond midfield, with Joao Felix playing behind Luis Suarez.

Suarez is playing the same role as ever, aggressively running into the channels and scoring at a rate of almost a goal per game in La Liga, and feels perfect for a Simeone side. Felix, after a quiet debut season, suddenly seems capable of anything as an energetic deep forward who likes drifting towards the left.

A system like this depends on appropriate wing-backs, of course, so it’s a blow that right-sided Kieran Trippier is suspended, having breached gambling regulations. On the left, Yannick Carrasco has occasionally been superb, including starring in a 1-0 win over Barcelona in November as both Atletico’s fifth defender and, at times, their most advanced attacker.

When both wing-backs have been absent, Simeone has sometimes turned to Marcos Llorente and Saul Niguez, which feels odd as both are accustomed to central midfield roles but players always understand their duties in Simeone’s system.

Koke is still the midfield leader while defensively, Atletico feel particularly uncompromising with three rugged centre-backs in the side. Jan Oblak, meanwhile, is arguably Europe’s best shot-stopper.

Key stat: Atletico scored just seven goals in their group, the fewest of all sides to reach the knockout stages.

Chelsea

Thomas Tuchel has been in charge of Chelsea for less than a month, having replaced Frank Lampard, but the side already feels radically different.

Tuchel immediately went to a three-man defence, with the likes of Cesar Azpilicueta and Marcos Alonso reprising the roles they played in the Antonio Conte era from 2016-18. The midfield has thus far been based around the passing quality of Jorginho and Mateo Kovacic, rather than the energy of N’Golo Kante.

The real question is how Tuchel gets so many expensive attacking players firing. He’s used both 3-4-2-1 and 3-4-1-2 so far, with Mason Mount perhaps the most pivotal player between the lines in either formation. The former system could see him joined by Hakim Ziyech, Christian Pulisic or Kai Havertz as a second No 10, but the latter one features split strikers that suits Timo Werner better. He and Callum Hudson-Odoi, who has also featured at wing-back, played the wide forward roles expertly in a 1-0 away win over Tottenham 11 days ago.

We’ve seen lots of possession and not so much penetration from Tuchel’s Chelsea thus far.

In the last 16 against an Atletico Madrid side generally happy to concede possession and soak up pressure in two-legged knockout ties, it’s likely to be more of the same.

Key stat: Chelsea won the most penalties in the group stage with six.

Lazio

Lazio have reached this stage for the first time in two decades — back when they were the reigning Italian champions with Simone Inzaghi playing up front. Now he’s calling the shots from the dugout and deploys a consistent 3-5-2 system that is defensively solid and capable of providing multiple runners on the break.

The main man is Ciro Immobile, who has consistently recorded sensational goalscoring statistics in Serie A — 117 in 161 games for Lazio — yet whose reputation across Europe is still relatively minor, perhaps because of his lack of success in European competition and at international level. He’s generally partnered by the speedy Joaquin Correa, a fine counter-attacker who sometimes makes the system look more like 3-5-1-1.

If the main striker is Immobile by name, the main holding midfielder is immobile by nature. Liverpool fan favourite Lucas Leiva is now 34 and has only completed 90 minutes in one of his 14 Serie A starts this season, but his solid positioning allows Sergej Milinkovic-Savic to play an energetic box-to-box role, with former Liverpool winger Luis Alberto — another Anfield old boy — now darting forward on the break alongside him.

The defence also lacks speed, with Francesco Acerbi having turned 33 in the last week while 34-year-old Stefan Radu is a former team-mate of manager Inzaghi, who retired 11 years ago.

In fact, the Romans have the highest average age of any of the 98 clubs in Europe’s major five domestic leagues.

Key stat: Lazio are the oldest side to reach the knockout phase of the competition, with a weighted average age of 29.4.

Bayern Munich

Bayern’s thrilling, aggressive football that won them the European Cup last season hasn’t always been in evidence this time around, although considering Hansi Flick’s side are four points clear at the top of the Bundesliga with a game in hand, they’re hardly in cracked-badge territory.

Flick has largely persisted with the 4-2-3-1 and similar personnel from last season, with Thiago’s departure to Liverpool compensated for by moving the outstanding Joshua Kimmich into midfield and Benjamin Pavard playing at right-back. Corentin Tolisso and Javi Martinez, two World Cup winners, offer cover.

Leroy Sane offers another wide option, although the combination of Kingsley Coman and Serge Gnabry has been Flick’s preference. He did, however, switch to 4-1-4-1 for a 1-0 win at Hertha Berlin in their most recent Bundesliga game, with all three “wingers” and Thomas Muller supporting Robert Lewandowski, and Kimmich holding behind them. Muller is in double figures for both league goals and assists already, while Lewandowski is on course for his best-ever Bundesliga goalscoring season.

Opponents will feel Bayern’s incredibly high defensive line might be the best way to expose them, although with speedy defenders and goalkeeper Manuel Neuer still sweeping outside his box, Flick remains confident in his ultra-aggressive approach.

Key stat: Bayern scored 18 goals from a 10.8 xG in the group stage, the biggest overperformance of all teams to make the knockout rounds.

Atalanta

Gian Piero Gasperini’s side were arguably the revelation of last season until a gutting stoppage-time collapse to lose to PSG in the quarter-finals from 1-0 up after 89 minutes. Gasperini’s unusual 3-4-1-2 or 3-4-2-1 system, featuring rotating diamonds down either side, was truly innovative and has inspired many of his contemporaries.

The major change since last season has been the departure of Argentinian playmaker Papu Gomez in January, after falling out with Gasperini, seemingly stemming from a disagreement about how he was used in a group game against Midtjylland. Gomez had responded by posting a series of screenshots to Instagram, detailing his positioning.

Whatever the nature of their row, Atalanta have missed his invention. Gasperini has tried three players in his absence: Ruslan Malinovskyi, generally a super-sub last season, summer signing Aleksei Miranchuk, who has shown flashes of quality, and Matteo Pessina, who scored twice against Napoli in last week’s Coppa Italia semi-final win, and is now the man in possession of a starting berth.

But otherwise, it’s a familiar Atalanta side. Expect to see Gasperini choosing between Colombians Duvan Zapata and Luis Muriel up front, with Josip Ilicic the star man in the inside-right role, and plenty of rotations meaning central midfielders, wing-backs and even centre-backs pop up in goalscoring positions. The man-orientated defensive system, though, can see Atalanta pulled apart too easily, which may cause issues against the speed of Real Madrid’s attackers in their last-16 tie.

Key stat: Atalanta shifted the ball upfield quicker than any other team in the group stage on average, moving at 1.7 metres per second.

Real Madrid

After an unconvincing start to the season, Real Madrid’s form has improved significantly in the two months since a group stage where they were beaten home and away by a Shakhtar Donetsk side who did not make the last 16. Curiously, although their star attacker has probably been Karim Benzema, who tops both their goals and assists charts, his scoring rate has actually dipped over the period when their results have improved.

Their major issue at the moment is injuries. For last week’s game against Getafe, they were without Dani Carvajal, Alvaro Odriozola, Eder Militao, Sergio Ramos, Lucas Vazquez, Toni Kroos, Federico Valverde, Eden Hazard and Rodrygo, which prompted coach Zinedine Zidane to use an unusually innovative 3-4-3 system that featured Marcelo impressively tucking inside from wing-back to become an extra central midfielder. In the aftermath of that match, though, it was revealed that Marcelo himself is now also on the treatment table with a calf injury.

They can still depend on the midfield presence of Casemiro, Luka Modric and Kroos, survivors of Zidane’s three previous European Cup wins as coach, but with so many injury issues, this isn’t a particularly cohesive side at the moment, and probably lacking the individual magic in the final third that he has previously relied upon.

Key stat: Real Madrid averaged the most high turnovers — possessions started in the attacking third in open play — with 36, joint with Manchester City.

Borussia Monchengladbach

Borussia Monchengladbach scraped through to the knockout phase with two draws, two wins over Shakhtar and then two defeats. Bizarrely, they finished level on points with Shakhtar but progressed by virtue of having a 10 goals to nil aggregate score against them in those head-to-head fixtures.

Marco Rose has earned a reputation as one of the continent’s brightest young managers and, much like his compatriot Julian Nagelsmann at Leipzig, is a serial formation switcher. His side have played in everything from 3-4-3 to 4-4-2, although a 4-2-3-1 is the most common system. Squad rotation has also been a major part of Rose’s approach.

Rose can choose between Marcus Thuram, Breel Embolo and Alassane Plea up front, with all three good on the counter and Thuram strong in the air. Their captain Lars Stindtl was in good goalscoring form before Christmas in his No 10 role, although has only scored once since Santa Claus came to town, while Jonas Hofmann’s steady stream of crosses from the left makes him the side’s most creative outlet. Florian Neuhaus, on his day, can command the midfield excellently.

Rose’s side are conceding almost 1.5 goals per game in the Bundesliga, however, and a tough draw against in-form Manchester City means they are unlikely to progress to the quarter-finals.

Key stat: Monchengladbach scored the most goals from set pieces in the group stage, with four.

Manchester City

Pep Guardiola hasn’t won this competition in his last eight attempts — one with Barcelona, three with Bayern and four with Manchester City. Ninth time around, he seems to have a serious chance of ending that run because City have hit their stride over the past couple of months.

And it hasn’t just been about possession play and attacking drive — we’ve seen a significant defensive improvement. The arrival of Ruben Dias in the summer transfer window has given City the traditional defensive qualities Guardiola’s teams have sometimes lacked while John Stones’ re-emergence alongside him has created a classic partnership of a solid defender and a more cultured ball-player. The form of Joao Cancelo has been particularly remarkable — the right-back has drifted inside to become a holding midfielder and, increasingly, a genuine deep playmaker.

It’s not as if Guardiola needs more midfield quality, and Cancelo’s movement into midfield is part of the reason why Ilkay Gundogan has suddenly become the Premier League’s most prolific goalscorer, eternally bursting into the box to score close-range goals.

He’s often formed part of a fluid attacking section, also featuring four of Bernardo Silva, Riyad Mahrez, Kevin De Bruyne, Raheem Sterling, Ferran Torres and Phil Foden, meaning we’ve become accustomed to seeing Guardiola again playing without a recognised striker with Sergio Aguero consistently injured (he’s started only three of their 36 games this season) and Gabriel Jesus misfiring, although both could still play crucial roles in these knockout ties.

Key stat: City conceded just one goal in the group stage, the fewest in the competition since Barcelona did the same in 2017-18.

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