It has been just about two years since we have seen a NCAA Women's College Basketball Tournament bracket, but come tonight, that wait will be over. We have seen upsets, different teams atop the polls, and conference tournaments completed, and now we get set for the most exciting time of the year.
Schools across the country have navigated the COVID-19 pandemic in a variety of challenging ways, and here we are, just hours away from determining the fate of so many hopeful teams across the country. Who will be the top seeds? Who is on the bubble? Who can make a deep tournament run? There are many questions that will be answered over the next few weeks, but for now, we will look at four critical storylines as we head into Selection Monday.
Who will be the No. 1 seeds?
With all games taking place in and around San Antonio, Texas this year, the difference between the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds may not seem as significant, but when you look forward to the second weekend, what may seem like splitting hairs, all of a sudden looks incredibly important.
There are two locks for top seeds: Stanford and UConn. There is no doubt that the Cardinal and the Huskies will be No. 1 seeds this year. I would have Stanford as the top overall seed, as I believe their overall body of work is a bit better than UConn's, but that can go either way. The race for the other two top seeds isn't as clear cut.
There are likely three teams vying for the remaining two top seeds, but I'm going to argue that there is a fourth. The top three teams, in no particular order, are South Carolina, NC State, and Texas A&M. Baylor should be in the mix as well, and while Maryland is just on the outside of that top line of seeding, the Terps are playing some of the best basketball in the country.
In a race that is so tight, it's hard not to reward a conference champion. The Aggies, while having an unbelievable season this year, lost in the SEC semifinals to Georgia. It would be difficult to argue if Gary Blair's team received a No. 1 seed, especially with the resume that the Aggies boast, but I'm going with South Carolina and NC State for the final two No. 1 seeds, joining Stanford and UConn on the top line.
Don't look now, but the reigning champs are coming
South Carolina, Stanford, and UConn were the top three teams in the AP Preseason Poll this season, and here we are on the cusp of beginning the NCAA Tournament, and they likely remain the top-3 teams heading into tournament play. That said, there is another team that is very familiar with the spotlight in March and April.
That team is also the reigning national champions: The Baylor Bears.
The Bears have been on a tear as of late, and are fresh off yet another round of Big-12 regular season and tournament championships -- the ninth time Baylor has accomplished that double under Kim Mulkey. NaLyssa Smith has been one of the best players in the country this season, Queen Egbo has been a terrific inside force, and Didi Richards has come back from a devastating early-season injury to provide the defense and leadership this team needs. Baylor is also extremely efficient on both ends of the court, and while they may not be as talented as the 2019 team that went 37-1 and beat Notre Dame in the championship game, they have gotten better as the season has gone along and look primed for a deep tournament run.
This Baylor team seems to be flying a bit under the radar right now,, but they certainly have the talent to win it all again.
Who will get in and whose bubble is set to burst?
Teams like Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Wake Forest, and UCF find themselves squarely on the bubble right now. Notre Dame, BYU, Washington State, DePaul, and Oklahoma are also in danger of not hearing their name called on Monday night.
I would add North Carolina, LSU, Rice, and South Dakota State to that list as well. The wild situation that occurred in the Missouri Valley Conference on Saturday, with top-seeded Missouri State withdrawing from the conference tournament but keeping itself eligible for the Big Dance, ended up stealing a bid from one of the teams mentioned above. Bradley took home the automatic bid, leaving Missouri State, a tournament lock, as an at-large bid.
With six of these teams likely to get into the field, here's how I think it should shake out:
- South Dakota State: IN
- Washington State: IN
- North Carolina: IN
- Ole Miss: IN
- Mississippi State: IN
- UCF: IN
- DePaul: OUT
- Wake Forest: OUT
- Notre Dame: OUT
- BYU: OUT
- LSU: OUT
- Rice: OUT
- Oklahoma: OUT
Last Four In: UNC, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and UCF
First Four Out: DePaul, Wake Forest, Houston, and BYU
South Dakota State is comfortably in the field, and I actually think that Washington State is as well. While I have UNC as the first of the last four teams in, I too believe that the Tar Heels are comfortably in the tournament.
That leaves 8-10 teams vying for three spots. If teams are close, I look at who they beat and how they finished the season. With that metric in mind, no team on the bubble finished the season better than Ole Miss. They beat Kentucky twice, Alabama, and Arkansas -- all tournament teams -- and rank 42nd in NET rankings
Mississippi State finished just over .500 at 10-9. The SEC is loaded and despite a difficult end to the season, they are still 45th in the NET rankings, and hold wins against Ole Miss and at Georgia. That win over Georgia sets the Bulldogs apart for me.
Washington State has good wins over Arizona and UCLA, and also beat Oregon State twice. That's four wins over tournament teams, including two wins over likely 3-seeds.
When comparing UCF, BYU, and DePaul its splitting hairs, but the Knights won 11 of their final 13 games, with their only losses coming to South Florida, a team that they also defeated during that stretch. The early-season loss at Temple is not a good one, but UCF is also 37th in NET rankings, which is significantly higher than other teams on the bubble.
Which double-digit seeds are likely to surprise?
UConn, Stanford, Baylor, and South Carolina should be the favorites, but who are the Cinderella teams we need to keep an eye on this year? Here are three projected double digit seeds that can make a run at the second weekend or beyond.
- Washington State - I touched on this a bit earlier, but while their 12-11 record may not jump out at you as impressive, their wins might. The Cougars started the season 7-1, including a win over Arizona, before going 2-9 over their next 11 games in a loaded Pac-12. Sandwiched in the middle of those nine losses came wins over Oregon State and UCLA -- both NCAA Tournament teams. The deal with Washington State is not whether or not they can win a game in the NCAA Tournament, but can they play well enough on both ends to win multiple games. As a likely No. 10 or No. 11-seed, they will need to pull two upsets to get to the second weekend. They are the best equipped double digit seed to do just that.
- South Dakota- South Dakota didn't have to take on South Dakota State in the Summit League championship game in order to punch their ticket to the Big Dance, but the Coyotes challenged themselves early in the season by playing Gonzaga and South Carolina, and while they lost to the Zags by four and the Gamecocks by 10, this team showed that they are capable of competing at a high level. The Coyotes finished the season 19-5, and while they lack that big win like Washington State has, the metrics do add up. They are 29th in the country in scoring offense and 50th in scoring defense, so with the right matchups, this team is more than capable of winning one or two games in the tournament.
- North Carolina- The Tar Heels are back in the NCAA Tournament and have a team that is positioned to make a run to the second weekend. Their biggest win of the season came at home against NC State, and while Courtney Banghart's team has been a bit inconsistent this season, they have the offensive firepower that can score with any team in the country. The Tar Heels boast the 33rd best scoring offense in the country, and while their defense (201st) certainly is not great, their ability to score the ball at a high level will give them an opportunity to advance past the first weekend.
