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NBA Trade Rumors: How Play-in Tournament for Playoffs Is Impacting 2021 Deadline

Timothy Rapp@@TRappaRTX.com LogoFeatured ColumnistMarch 14, 2021

Toronto Raptors guard Kyle Lowry (7) brings the ball up court against the Charlotte Hornets during the second half of an NBA basketball game in Charlotte, N.C., Saturday, March 13, 2021. (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)
Jacob Kupferman/Associated Press

There may be more buyers than sellers before the March 25 NBA trade deadline. 

Per Michael Scotto of Hoops Hype, "multiple NBA executives" believe the "installation of the play-in tournament has made some teams in the middle of the pack less inclined to be sellers at the deadline than in years past."

This year, the teams that finish the regular season Nos. 7-10 in the standings in each conference will enter a play-in tournament. The tournament will work as follows:

  • The No. 7 team in each conference will host the No. 8 seed in its conference in a play-in game. The winner of that game earns the No. 7 seed in the playoffs. 
  • The No. 9 team in each conference will host the No. 10 seed in its conference. The loser of that will be eliminated from postseason contention, while the winner will face the losing team from the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchup in its conference. 
  • The winner of that game in each conference will earn the No. 8 seed in the postseason. 

The league's new format will keep far more teams within striking distance of the playoffs. In the Eastern Conference, for instance, just four games separate the No. 10 Toronto Raptors (17-21) from the No. 14 Orlando Magic (13-25). 

In the West, just 3.5 games separate No. 10 Memphis (17-18) from No. 13 Sacramento (15-23). In the past, Sacramento might have looked at that number and determined that closing the gap with a young team might be too difficult and dealing key veterans would have made sense. 

Now, the chance to earn a playoff berth is far more feasible. 

The other factor to consider is that bottoming out isn't as potentially rewarding as it once was. In the past, finishing the season with the worst record in basketball earned you a 25 percent chance of winning the NBA draft lottery. The second-worst record granted you a 19.9 percent shot, while the third-worst record granted you a 15.6 percent chance. 

But after the NBA changed the rules in 2019, those odds were flattened. Now, the three worst records in the league all get a 14.0 percent chance of winning the lottery, while the fourth-worst record gets a 12.5 percent chance and the fifth-worst record comes in at 10.5 percent. 

In the new rules, the teams with the fourth- through 13th-worst records have better lottery odds than they did in the old system. When the New Orleans Pelicans won the lottery in 2019 and drafted Zion Williamson, for instance, they were ninth on the board and had a 6 percent chance to earn the No. 1 pick. 

In the previous system, they would have held just a 1.7 percent chance to earn the top selection. So the flattening of the lottery odds has already had an effect. Between the new play-in formula and the change in lottery odds, it isn't a huge shock that teams might be wary of being sellers this season.