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March Madness

From the No. 1 seed to Cinderella, here are 10 bold predictions for the 2021 NCAA Tournament

Remember when No. 16-seeded University of Maryland, Baltimore County upset No. 1 Virginia in 2018? No one saw that coming. Remember when Virginia won the national championship the next season? Not many felt comfortable with that pick, no matter how good the Cavaliers looked in 2019. 

Both could be considered bold picks in an office pool. Let's face it: It's boring to pick all the top seeds or favorites to advance. Everyone needs one (or several) eye-raising, unexpected picks to set themselves apart. We've got you covered in that department. 

Here are 10 bold predictions for this year's tournament. 

1. Gonzaga does not win the national championship. The Bulldogs (26-0) open the NCAA Tournament as the obvious favorite with an undefeated record. This is one of coach Mark Few's best chances to win his first national championship. But being unbeaten could work against the 'Zags. The last two teams to finish regular seasons undefeated -- Wichita State in 2014 and Kentucky in 2015 -- didn't win it all. The tourney isn't a best-of-seven series, and Gonzaga is used to pummeling West Coast Conference teams. The last time it played a team with a top-four seed on the bracket was December. 

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2. Illinois wins the national championship. OK, so maybe this isn't so bold picking a No. 1 seed with two All-Americans bound for the NBA – Ayo Dosunmu and Kofi Cockburn. But even if the Fighting Illini (23-6) are playing exceptional basketball, they don't have an easy path to the Final Four with underrated Loyola-Chicago or surging Georgia Tech waiting in the second round and likely Oklahoma State – led by projected No. 1 NBA draft pick Cade Cunningham – in the Sweet 16. 

Illinois Fighting Illini center Kofi Cockburn (left), guard Ayo Dosunmu (11), guard Andre Curbelo (5), and guard Trent Frazier (right) react against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the second half at Lucas Oil Stadium.

3. Michigan gets bounced in the second round. The loss of Isaiah Livers for the entire NCAA Tournament is a major issue. Livers was the backbone of this national title contender, and ripping him off the roster before the tournament drastically alters the team's identity – which showed in a Big Ten Tournament loss to Ohio State. The Wolverines' second-round matchup against LSU or Saint Bonaventure isn't as scary as Baylor's (against North Carolina or Wisconsin) or Illinois' (Loyola-Chicago or Georgia Tech), but coach Juwan Howard's team will be ripe for an early round upset. 

4. Colgate goes to the Sweet 16. The 14th-seeded Raiders (14-1) have only played 15 games this season due to a COVID-19-influenced schedule. So the sample size hasn't been optimal or the same as other mid-majors. But the ingredients are there to beat a red-hot No. 3-seeded Arkansas (winners of nine of 10) and Texas Tech/Utah State in the second round. Those ingredients include three-point shooting (Colgate ranks top-10 nationally in made triples and three-point field goal percentage) and a March star (Jordan Burns averages 17.1 points and 5.4 assists per game). 

5. A former bubble team goes to the Sweet 16. Syracuse famously went all the way to the Final Four in 2016 as a No. 10 seed, and coach Jim Boeheim always has his team ready. It has a favorable matchup against an overseeded San Diego State in the 6-vs.-11 seed game. Same situation with an overseeded West Virginia team or Morehead State in the second round. Buddy Boeheim, the coach's son, has been on fire in March, scoring 27 points in an ACC Tournament win over North Carolina State before dropping 31 points in a last-second loss to Virginia. There's also potential for one of the play-in winners, Drake-Wichita State or Michigan State-UCLA, to stage a run to the Sweet 16.

Syracuse Orange guard Buddy Boeheim (35) shoots over Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets guard Michael Devoe (0) in the first half at McCamish Pavilion.

6. Two No. 14 seeds win in the first round. On top of Colgate, the No. 14-seed line has other dangerous teams. Morehead State, winner of the Ohio Valley, has a high-flying player in freshman standout Johni Broome. The Eagles (23-7) meet No. 3 West Virginia in the Midwest Region. Coach Bob Huggins has a better offense than he's had in years' past, but not as sound of a defense, making the Mountaineers beatable. In the East Region, Abilene Christian draws a surging Texas, winner of the Big 12 Conference Tournament. But the Wildcats (23-4) are disciplined, leading the nation in assist-to-turnover ratio, while also ranking seventh in scoring defense (allowing 60.5 points to opponents). 

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7. No. 13 seeds are also nice. In the West Region, Ohio (16-7) is well-positioned to knock off No. 4 Virginia in the first round, as the Cavaliers aren't as dominant on defense as they have been. The Bobcats' Jason Preston (16.6 ppg, 7.2 apg) leads a balanced offense with five players averaging double-figures. In the South Region, North Texas (17-9) can beat No. 4 Purdue. The winners of Conference USA have an explosive guard in Javion Hamlet (15.0 ppg, 4.5 apg) and can smother opponents defensively – ranking 10th nationally with 61.2 points per game allowed.  

8. No. 12 seed Winthrop also becomes Cinderella. Coach Pat Kelsey has a well-rounded roster that does a lot of little things well, which is why this team lost just once all season while dominating Big South opponents. What's aiding Winthrop is the pathway to the Sweet 16. Villanova is as vulnerable a No. 5 seed as there is with the loss of starting point guard Collin Gillespie.

9. A No. 5 and 6 seed go to the Elite Eight. Colorado is a favorite to be upset by Georgetown in the first round, but that matchup and several other potential matchups in the West Region favor the Buffaloes (22-8). In the South Region, Texas Tech is a very strong No. 6 seed likely to beat Utah State before facing No. 2 Ohio State and potentially Big 12 foe Baylor, who beat the Red Raiders twice in the regular season. 

10. Houston goes to the Final Four. The Cougars (24-3) are a No. 2 seed, but not many are picking them to win the Midwest Region. But coach Kelvin Sampson's squad has been underrated all season playing in the American Athletic Conference. Houston has won seven in a row and nine of its last 10. Quentin Grimes, a Kansas transfer averaging 18 points a game, could be a March star. 

Follow college basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson

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