The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine

Welcome to The Ringer’s NBA Odds Machine for the 2020-21 postseason. Based on team strength as measured by point differential—a historically strong predictor of future success—with adjustments for individual wrinkles like injuries and schedules, the Odds Machine includes four features: a breakdown of each day’s games, an analysis of those games’ importance, a look at each team’s likelihood of advancing through the various playoff rounds, and an examination of each series, game by game. The Odds Machine will update every day until a champion is crowned, so be sure to check back throughout the coming months as the league’s best teams battle for a title.

Getty Images/Ringer illustration

The chart below shows each team’s likelihood of advancing through each playoff round and, ultimately, winning the 2020-21 title. We’re simulating the rest of the postseason every day, so check back daily for the latest projections.

Getty Images/Ringer illustration

How likely is your favorite team to win in a sweep? What about losing in five, or winning in six, or going all the way to a nail-biter Game 7? These charts show the chances for each possible outcome in every series.