NFL Offseason Dominoes Left to Fall in June

Summertime is here.

OK, so technically summer doesn't begin until June 20. But Memorial Day weekend has come and gone, and that marks the unofficial beginning of summer.

It's also past the first of June—and that marks an important date on the NFL calendar.

Now that we're into the month of June, we should see player movement once again ramp up. The reason is simple: By waiting until after June 1 to trade or release a player, an NFL team can spread out any prorated bonus money over two years as opposed to just one.

Confused yet?

Here's an example. Let's say a player is signed to a four-year pact that includes $10 million in bonus money. One year into the deal, the team realizes that player isn't a fit and decides to trade or release him.

If said team deals or releases said player before June 1, the entire $7.5 million in remaining bonus money hits that year's cap. After June 1, only the original $2.5 million that would have already counted on that year's cap hits. The other $5 million won't hit the cap until the following year.

Given the reduced salary cap in 2021 and the big spike in the cap expected to come in 2022, that bit of creative accounting can be a big deal for cap-strapped franchises.

This part of the NFL calendar isn't just about players getting traded or released, either. With those moves potentially clearing money off the books and teams locking up their rookie classes, there will also be another wave of free-agent signings as veterans who have languished on the market since March finally find work.

The NFL calendar truly is a perpetual motion machine, and as this latest cog fires up here's a look at some of the dominoes we could soon see fall via trades and/or cuts—dominoes that could have a sizable impact on how the 2021 season plays out.

Aaron Rodgers Standoff

The domino that towers above all others in the NFL is one that doesn't appear to be falling anytime soon.

As Matt Schneidman reported for The Athletic, a source within the Packers organization indicated Green Bay general manager Brian Gutekunst has no intention of trading disgruntled quarterback Aaron Rodgers.

"The Packers would trade Rodgers if they believed he was truly committed to never playing for them again and wanted to get draft picks and players in return instead of forcing him to retire and receiving only the money they'd keep from him refusing to play in any of the final three years on his contract," he wrote. "According to a source, however, general manager Brian Gutekunst is still holding firm to the stance that he 'will not' trade the reigning NFL MVP."

Rodgers has reportedly indicated he would sooner retire than play in Green Bay unless things are fixed "to his liking." Gutekunst appears to be willing (as things stand) to call that bluff. There's a mandatory minicamp in mid-June (that Rodgers all but certainly won't show up for), and then training camp proper starts on July 27.

You can expect this burgeoning soap opera to be a dominant storyline in the NFL over that entire period.

Julio Jones Trade

Aaron Rodgers isn't the only NFL superstar who has made headlines of late.

With the Atlanta Falcons tight against the salary cap, there have been rumors that wide receiver Julio Jones could be moved swirling for some time. As ESPN's Michael Rothstein reported, those rumors kicked into hyperdrive when Jones told Shannon Sharpe of FS1 that "I'm outta there" during a televised interview.

However, it appears that any potential Jones deal has hit a snag.

Jones is unquestionably a fantastic player—or at least, was. But the odds that another team will pay a first-round pick for a 32-year-old receiver coming off arguably the worst season of his career with a $23 million cap hit in 2021 are slim to none.

The odds that a team will give up a first-rounder plus players lean toward the none part.

Per Over the Cap, the Falcons currently possess the second-least cap space in the NFL—less than $350,000. Trading Jones will clear $15.3 million off the books. It's wiggle room the rebuilding team badly needs.

There's no shortage of teams who could have interest in Jones, including WR-needy clubs like the New England Patriots, Las Vegas Raiders and Tennessee Titans.

But for any deal to get done, the Falcons are going to have to come to grips with the fact that given Jones' age, injury history and salary, a Day 2 pick is the best they're gonna get as the centerpiece of a trade.

Zach Ertz Trade

This is another trade that has reportedly been in the works for some time—and of the ones mentioned so far, it's probably the most likely to actually happen soon.

For several years, Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles was considered one of the best tight ends in the league, making three straight Pro Bowls from 2017 to 2019. But last year the 30-year-old recorded the fewest receiving yards and touchdowns of his career, and with Dallas Goedert on the roster and the Eagles able to clear over $8 million off the books by releasing or trading Ertz, it has long been rumored that he could be on the move,

However, via ESPN's Jeremy Fowler, the Eagles aren't just going to give Ertz away.

According to Brandon Lee Gowton of SB Nation, Eagles general manager Howie Roseman was originally believed to be looking for a third-round pick in return for Ertz. After his injury-marred 2020 season and headed into the last year of his contract, that could be pushing it. But there are a few playoff contenders in need of tight end help like the Arizona Cardinals, Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts who could use a boost at the position.

Edge-Rusher Emporium

There isn't a team in the NFL that isn't looking to boost the pass rush just about every season. And there are a few established edge-rushers who could be on the market as the summer warms up.

Back in 2018, Danielle Hunter of the Minnesota Vikings inked a five-year, $72 million extension. Since then, he has tallied two 14.5-sack seasons (2018 and 2019) and missed all of the 2020 season with a neck injury.

Hunter is reportedly unhappy with that contract and didn't show for OTAs, leading to speculation that he could be made available in a trade. A deal would save the Vikings $12 million and change against the cap.

It was just two years ago that Trey Flowers signed a five-year, $90 million contract with the Detroit Lions. It's a deal that makes him the team's highest-paid player in 2021, and while his numbers haven't been eye-popping, the 27-year-old has played relatively well with his second team.

But that big contract was signed by the old Lions regime, and with a new coach, new defensive scheme and the opportunity to clear $14.4 million off the books, Detroit may well at least listen to offers.

There have been calls for the Houston Texans to at least consider trading edge-rusher Whitney Mercilus dating back years.

After logging just four sacks last year and headed into the final season of his contract, the 30-year-old isn't going to net a king's ransom. Or a prince's. In fact, Houston already re-did Mercilus' deal, adding voidable years that will leave the team staring at $7 million in dead money in 2022 no matter what.

The Texans are a hot mess, and getting anything at all for Mercilus in 2021 beats getting nothing in 2022. It also saves the team $4.5 million against the cap. Mercilus has averaged six sacks a season over his career, and he could add some cheap pop to a team like the cross-state Cowboys.

Other Trade and Cut Candidates

There's a flip side to all those players who could be traded over the next few weeks. Some others might find themselves without a team altogether if teams can't work out a deal.

And at least one may just get the gate.

Back in March 2019, Landon Collins signed a whopping six-year, $84 million contract with Washington. But after piling up 117 total tackles in his first year with the team, he missed nine games a season ago with an Achilles tear.

With the emergence of youngster Kamren Curl last year and the signing of Bobby McCain in free agency, the WFT has a bit of a logjam at safety, and releasing Collins now would save the team a hair over $12.7 million against the cap.

All Jordan Hicks did as a member of the Arizona Cardinals in 2020 was lead the team with 118 total tackles. That came after piling up 150 in his first season in the desert the year before. But after spending a first-round pick on an off-ball linebacker for the second straight year, the Cardinals gave the 28-year-old permission to seek a trade. So far there have been no takers, although that could change as we move farther into the summer and the injury bug starts biting teams in camp.

To say C.J. Mosley's first two seasons at linebacker with the New York Jets haven't gone as planned is an understatement.

After signing a massive five-year, $80 million pact in 2019, the 28-year-old made it through all of two games in 2019 before going down for the season and opting out of the 2020 campaign altogether.

Releasing the four-time Pro Bowler isn't really realistic—the Jets would eat almost $16 million in dead cap money. A trade is another story—it would save the team $6 million and get them out from under one of the league's uglier contracts.