PGA Tour Hall of Famer Phil Mickelson and future NFL Hall of Famer Tom Brady team up once again, this time to take on Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers in The Match 4. The Match takes place Tuesday in Big Sky, Montana. Below, we look at The Match 4 odds and lines and make our golf picks and predictions to win.
Mickelson and Brady pair up for the first time since losing to Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning in The Match II. Mickelson, who defeated Woods in the first edition of “The Match”, then rebounded with partner Charles Barkley to defeat Stephen Curry and Manning last fall.
DeChambeau and Rodgers are making their first appearance in the made-for-TV golf exhibition. Rodgers is coming off an MVP season in the NFL as quarterback of the Green Bay Packers; DeChambeau is sixth in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings and fourth in the FedEx Cup standings.
Odds to win
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10 a.m. ET.
Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers: -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady: +150 (bet $100 to win $150)
DeChambeau and Rodgers are the favorites in The Match 4 with an implied win probability of 65.52 percent. Their odds can be expressed as a decimal of 1.53 or a fraction of 10/19.
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Prop bets
There are also a series of prop bets available. Bettors can wager on which team will be nearest to the pin on each of the par 3s, who will win Hole 1 or take the first lead, and whether there’ll be a hole in one or an eagle in The Match.
Here are some of the most interesting options:
- Will there be a hole-in-one? (Playoff holes don’t count): Yes +5000
- Any eagle in tournament: Yes +1400
- First to go 1 up: DeChambeau/Rodgers: -200 | Mickelson/Brady: +140
- First hole birdies: DeChambeau/Rodgers: +550 | Mickelson/Brady: +750
- Who will win Hole 1? DeChambeau/Rodgers: +175 | Mickelson/Brady: +300
Picks and predictions
Mickelson and Barkley opened and closed as underdogs in The Match 3 against Curry and Manning. The books were proven wrong in distrusting the then-50-year-old Mickelson.
That’s unlikely to be the case this time. While he recently won the 2021 PGA Championship in a resurgent effort, he’s just 109th in the Golfweek/Sagarin rankings and has since finished outside the top 60 in each of his last three PGA Tour events.
DeChambeau and Rodgers (-190) should be backed for the victory, albeit at a steep price. Round out your betting card by backing the underdogs to birdie the first hole and/or take the first lead.
YES (+1400) to Will there be an eagle? is also a strong bet for a 14-1 return regardless of which team records it.
Format and how to watch
Format: Modified alternate shot match play
Teams: Bryson DeChambeau and Aaron Rodgers vs. Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady
Where: The Reserve at Moonlight Basin in Big Sky, Montana
When: Tuesday, July 6 at 5 p.m. ET
How to watch: TNT
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