5 college football teams poised to take a step back in 2021
There are bound to be some teams that can't repeat their good 2020 seasons. Who will they be?
Here are five teams that we think won't be as good as they were in 2020.
Auburn (6-5 in 2020)
Auburn turned in a decent season in 2020 as it went 6-4 in the SEC before losing to Northwestern in the Citrus Bowl. But that 6-4 record wasn’t good enough for coach Gus Malzahn to keep his job as he was fired following the team’s final win of the season.
Bryan Harsin was hired as Malzahn’s replacement and it’s hard to see how his team tops last year’s win total. While Auburn brings back 15 starters including QB Bo Nix and leading tackler Zakoby McClain, the Tigers are in a crowded SEC West with an LSU team poised for a rebound and an Ole Miss team that has to be better on defense than it was in 2020.
The non-conference slate isn’t a walk in the park either. While Auburn should win all three of its home games against non-Power Five opponents, the Tigers will be underdogs at Penn State on Sept. 18. A loss in State College means the Tigers have to go 4-4 in the SEC to get to seven wins. With three top-10 teams on its SEC schedule, Auburn needs to pull an upset or two to finish above .500.
BYU (11-1)
This may seem a little unfair to the Cougars after such a spectacular season in 2020. Star QB Zach Wilson is with the New York Jets and the offense has to replace three other starters. On top of that, offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes and line coach Eric Mateos left for Baylor. The defense has to replace seven starters from a unit that gave up over 10 points fewer per game (15.3) in 2020 than it did in 2019.
That’s a unit primed for some regression even with a similar schedule. But BYU’s schedule is nothing like it was in 2020 when it had to cobble together a patchwork slate of games with no Power Five opponents because of COVID-19.
This year’s schedule includes seven games against Power Five opponents along with a trip to Georgia Southern late in the year and a visit from Boise State. BYU’s record may look a lot closer to the one it posted in 2018 and 2019 (7-6) than the one it had a year ago.
Indiana (6-2)
Last year’s Indiana team was no fluke. The Hoosiers went 6-1 in the Big Ten and only lost to Ohio State after beating both Michigan and Penn State. Can Indiana replicate that success in 2021? We’re not so sure.
The Hoosiers do bring back 17 starters including QB Michael Penix. But running back Stevie Scott (561 rushing yards) and receiver Whop Philyor (495 receiving yards) are both gone. No matter who replaces Scott, improvement in the run game will be key. Indiana has averaged fewer than four yards per carry in three of the past four seasons. The loss of defensive coordinator Kane Wommack also can't be overlooked.
While Indiana could be just as competitive as it was a year ago, we’re projecting Michigan and Penn State among our most improved teams in 2021. Both of those games are on the road for Indiana this year and the Hoosiers host Cincinnati on Sept. 18 in one of the better non-conference games of the season. Throw in Ohio State on Oct. 23 and it’s easy to see Indiana taking a step back in 2021. Going 8-4 or 7-5 is a great season by Indiana standards — but it also may be a bit of a disappointment after last year.
Northwestern (7-2)
Northwestern is one of the seemingly few teams that doesn’t have a majority of its starters back for 2021. The Wildcats bring back four starters on each side of the ball. That could be especially problematic for a defense that gave up less than 16 points per game in 2020. Northwestern was one of the stingiest defenses in the country and didn’t give up more than 20 points in a game until losing 29-20 to Michigan State. Not to mention, longtime defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired after the season.
The Wildcats get the Spartans at home to start the season and have a manageable schedule — the toughest games are trips to Michigan and Wisconsin in in the second half of the season. Throw in a trip to an improved Nebraska team on Oct. 2 and games against Minnesota and Iowa and it’s easy to see how Northwestern could finish the season at 8-4 or 7-5. That won't be good enough to repeat as the Big Ten West champion.
Notre Dame (10-2)
Notre Dame should be good again in 2021. But a College Football Playoff berth looks out of reach.
The Irish bring back just three starters on offense and six starers on defense. While RB Kyren Williams is back for 2021, Ian Book is not. The longtime QB starter was the catalyst for Notre Dame’s offense. Wisconsin transfer Jack Coan was effective for the Badgers, but he wasn’t the quarterback in the Badgers’ system that Book was for Notre Dame. The Irish can’t ask Coan to do everything that Book did.
Kyle Hamilton and Drew White are the only players back among Notre Dame’s top five tacklers in 2020. The defense has allowed fewer than 20 points per game over three consecutive seasons. Will that stretch to four?
There’s a reason we’re a tad skeptical. Notre Dame plays Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, USC, and North Carolina all in a row from Sept. 25 to Oct. 30. It’s not out of the question that the Irish go 1-4 in that stretch, even if it’s not likely. If Notre Dame can escape that run at 4-1, then another fantastic season is in the cards. But 3-2 or 2-3 is more likely. And after an undefeated 2020 regular season, that's a step back.
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