Ranking the Best Players Supposedly on the Trade Block

Grant Hughes@@gt_hughesX.com LogoNational NBA Featured ColumnistFebruary 7, 2022

Ranking the Best Players Supposedly on the Trade Block

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    Nick Wass/Associated Press

    The quality of an NBA trade candidate is in the eye of the beholder, but a few of the best have obvious objective appeal.

    You know the names by now: Ben Simmons, Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes and several others have been hot topics for months. The trick, though, is drawing the line between who's really available and who's simply been tossed out by some unnamed executive as "potentially interesting." Inclusion here requires a long(ish) stay in the rumor mill, concrete reports or at least obvious circumstantial evidence suggesting a trade is realistic.

    Notable names like Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, James Harden and Russell Westbrook fail those tests. They won't appear here.

    Rankings will consider past and projected productivity alongside contract status. These are the best players available.

Honorable Mention

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    Darron Cummings/Associated Press

    Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers

    He'd be in the top four if healthy, but a stress reaction in his foot seems to have removed Turner from the list of likely deadline movers, per B/R's Jake Fischer. I'd still fire off an offer headlined by a first-rounder for the Pacers big man, who's under contract next season for a paltry $17.5 million. But Indy probably knows it will be able to do better than that by waiting until the offseason.

           

    Buddy Hield, Sacramento Kings

    The best shooter available, Hield and Stephen Curry are the only players with over 1,000 made treys on at least a 40.0 percent clip since 2016-17. On a declining deal that will only pay him $19.3 million in 2023-24, the Kings guard would add immediate stretch and quick-fire scoring to any second unit. Don't expect defense, ball-handling or passing, and Hield won't disappoint.

           

    Kyrie Irving, Brooklyn Nets

    There's nothing concrete indicating Irving is on the market, and any pursuit of the seven-time All-Star would be complicated by his unvaccinated status and the resulting questions about how many games he'd even be allowed to play. Toss in his ability to opt out and hit free agency this summer, and it's almost impossible to imagine another team ponying up something the contending Nets would actually want. We're including him here out of an abundance of caution.

10. Caris LeVert, Indiana Pacers

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    Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

    A high-usage wing who prefers to create his own looks in the ill-favored in-between scoring ranges, Caris LeVert is a solid sixth-man type miscast as a starter for the Indiana Pacers.

    Were he to find the right team, and were he to embrace a reserve role, LeVert could up his efficiency and make a real difference on a winner. His bucket-getting chops are real, as evidenced by his 13 career 30-point games. But LeVert hasn't finished a season with a true shooting percentage above the league average since 2016-17.

    Still, the 6'6" wing's assist rate has historically ranked in the top quartile at his position, and he's shooting a career-best 38.6 percent on catch-and-shoot threes. There may yet be a way to coax off-ball value from him, which would drastically expand the number of teams that could put him to use in a rotation.

    At $17.5 million this year and $18.8 million in 2022-23, LeVert might be a bit overpaid for his optimal role as a leader of reserves. But he's not without some upside, and shot creation is a critical skill.

    Hoops Hype's Michael Scotto reported the asking price for Indy's 27-year-old guard is a first-round pick and a good young player. That seems steep, so LeVert has to bring up the rear of our top 10.

9. Thaddeus Young, San Antonio Spurs

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    Eric Gay/Associated Press

    Thaddeus Young is six years older and far less heralded than Caris LeVert, but his relatively low cost and portable skill set give him an edge.

    Relegated to the bench as the San Antonio Spurs prioritize their youth, Young seems to have receded from the collective NBA consciousness. But just last season, he was putting up 12.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.3 assists on 55.9 percent shooting for the Chicago Bulls—almost exclusively as a small-ball 5.

    Though it's largely because he came up as a small forward, Young's assist and steal rates are positively elite among bigs today. He's not much help on the defensive boards, but the net gains he provides are clear; Young's career features far more seasons with positive on-off differentials than negative ones.

    On an expiring $14.2 million contract and toting per-36 stats that suggest he's the same guy who mattered so much in Chicago a season ago, Young is a perfect fit for playoff-bound teams in need of downsized lineup options. The Phoenix Suns and Utah Jazz are both ideal landing spots, but Young's game slots in nicely almost anywhere.

8. Christian Wood, Houston Rockets

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    Eric Christian Smith/Associated Press

    It's not totally his fault, but Christian Wood has yet to disprove the notion he's more than a "good stats, bad team" guy. 

    A late surge for the 20-46 Detroit Pistons got Wood paid in the summer of 2020, and he's averaged 19.2 points and 10.0 rebounds on strong scoring efficiency since signing with the Houston Rockets...who've stunk even worse than that woebegone Pistons squad.

    That said, this is as low as a modestly paid ($13.7 million this year; $14.3 million in 2022-23) center with three-level scoring skills can rank. Wood is a bucket just about anywhere, whether sniping in pick-and-pop sets, rolling down the lane or getting up for lobs.

    Close out aggressively, and he can put in on the deck to tee up a highlight. Crowd him in the mid-range area, and he'll face up for a jab-and-drive package you'd expect from a shooting guard.

    Wood is a poor rim protector and doesn't always bring the necessary level of focus on D, but his physical talent, especially on offense, is undeniable.

    The Athletic's Kelly Iko reported the Miami Heat are among the teams interested in Wood but that the Rockets would need to be overwhelmed by an offer in order to move him.

    With rookie Alperen Sengun likely featuring more in the rebuilding Rockets' plans, Wood is someone worth monitoring as the deadline approaches.

7. CJ McCollum, Portland Trail Blazers

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    Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

    For some, seeing CJ McCollum ranked this low will be a shock. He's among the smoothest jump-shooters in the game, and seven straight seasons with a scoring average north of 20.0 points lends a welcome level of certainty to any team pursuing the 30-year-old guard.

    Additional certainties include substandard defense, minimal upside and $69.1 million in guaranteed money across the two seasons after this one. Brass tacks: McCollum's superstar salary outstrips his solid-starter production.

    Alongside a bigger backcourt partner who could wrangle difficult defensive assignments, McCollum would still provide serious value. He's not a true top-option scorer, but he commands attention on and off the ball.

    Anytime the Blazers hit a rough patch, talk of breaking up the McCollum-Damian Lillard tandem seems to surface. Those two are a little like Indiana's Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner: mostly successful together but perhaps too duplicative to ever headline a big-time winner.

6. Eric Gordon, Houston Rockets

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    Rick Bowmer/Associated Press

    Eric Gordon falls short of CJ McCollum in most career catch-all metrics, but the Houston Rockets guard has a higher career true shooting percentage, gets to the foul line far more frequently and has the strength to guard bigger wings when circumstances call for it. Those three key advantages might not be enough to earn Gordon a spot ahead of McCollum on their own, but you also have to consider the financial side.

    Gordon is owed $19.6 million next season and has only a partial guarantee on his 2023-24 salary. That allows him to function as much more of a rental, which is the main reason he's more likely to cost suitors a first-round pick than McCollum, who may only appeal to interested teams if the Blazers included a first as a sweetener.

    Price matters when you're ranking trade candidates, as does recency.

    This year, Gordon is shooting it better than McCollum from two, three and the foul line. When you add in the elder guard's superior defense and downhill attacking game, his appeal as a midseason upgrade is clear. And when you compare their respective cap hits, Gordon only looks more intriguing.

5. Jerami Grant, Detroit Pistons

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    Gerald Herbert/Associated Press

    A Jerami Grant trade has felt inevitable for several weeks, as the rebuilding Detroit Pistons should value the first-round picks they might be able to secure in a swap more than the 27-year-old forward himself.

    Grant's career evolution is impressive. Once a total non-shooter, he grew into a three-and-D role before adding self-created offense upon joining the Pistons in 2020-21. Though he's a bit out of his depth in that final phase, any team looking to acquire Grant will value the fact that, if necessary, he can bail out an offense when a play breaks down.

    One reason Grant ranks below the player immediately ahead of him at No. 4 (is the suspense killing you yet?) is the way his career evolution seems to have shaped his own expectations. Grant chose to sign with the Pistons in 2020 partly because he wanted to prove he was capable of handling a top-line role, and B/R's Jake Fischer reported any team acquiring him had better be ready to offer a four-year extension worth nine figures when Grant hits free agency in 2023.

    Grant is a great value at his current price ($20 million this year and $21.0 million in 2022-23), but that likely won't be the case if he succeeds in getting what he wants in his next contract. This creates the possibility that he's closer to a rental than a long-term investment.

    There's a better option out there.

4. Harrison Barnes, Sacramento Kings

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    John Bazemore/Associated Press

    The comparison between Harrison Barnes and Jerami Grant isn't fair if you consider their entire careers. Barnes was a lottery pick who started (and closed) for a title winner in his age-22 season, while Grant didn't play a role of any real consequence until 2018-19, when he was already 24.

    But even if we filter the data in a manner more favorable to Grant by starting the comparison in 2018-19, Barnes still profiles as the better asset. The Kings forward tops Grant in true shooting percentage, rebound rate, assist rate and win shares. Durability also favors Barnes, who's logged over 1,500 more minutes than his forward counterpart over the last four seasons.

    And whatever credit Grant gets for developing his game over the years should also go to Barnes. He was a fifth option in Golden State but then shone as a leading scorer with the Dallas Mavericks. His tenure with the Kings has included a mixture of spot-shooting and individual shot creation. Basically, Grant is still working on the complete game Barnes perfected several years ago.

    That Barnes has always been willing to play a supporting role also makes him more appealing, as does the fact that his deal drops from $20.3 million this year to $18.4 in 2022-23.

    Cheaper, more accomplished, more consistent and a demonstrably better shooter, Barnes should probably be a little annoyed that Grant is the available forward getting all the trade-deadline interest. But then, Barnes has also played his entire career without letting slip even the faintest wisp of egotism or self-absorption. Add zero-maintenance locker room leadership to his list of valuable attributes.

3. Domantas Sabonis, Indiana Pacers

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    Ringo H.W. Chiu/Associated Press

    It was a struggle to slot Domantas Sabonis here because several of the players ranked immediately beneath him have much cleaner plug-and-play games. It's a lot easier to fit a two-way wing or forward into a random rotation than a defensively suspect center who needs the ball in his hands to be his best self.

    Still, this is a two-time All-Star we're talking about—one who happens to make just $18.5 million in 2022-23 and $19.4 million in 2023-24. That's mid-tier starter money for a player averaging at least 19.0 points, 12.0 rebounds and 5.0 assists for the second season in a row.

    Let's not overthink it.

    Sabonis may not move unless the Pacers get offers in line with what the Orlando Magic received for Nikola Vucevic a season ago, per Michael Scotto of Hoops Hype. Chicago surrendered a haul headlined by Wendell Carter Jr. and two first-round picks, one of which Orlando used to take likely All-Rookie first-teamer Franz Wagner.

    Just 25 and among the most skilled bruisers in the league, Sabonis seems worth that price.

2. John Collins, Atlanta Hawks

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    Hakim Wright Sr./Associated Press

    Those two All-Star nods give Domantas Sabonis the more impressive resume, but John Collins is the most tantalizing big man available.

    Unlike the Pacers center, the 24-year-old Atlanta Hawks forward has the kind of scalability all teams should covet. He came into the league as an energy big converting more than a quarter of his field goals via the dunk and dabbling with the three-ball on mostly short-corner looks. Over the last several seasons, Collins has added layers to his game, removed any doubt about his long-range shooting (39.3 percent or better since 2019-20) and done the dirty work during a run to the conference finals.

    No wonder Collins is frustrated with his role in Atlanta. All signs point to him being capable of much more. Yet his usage rate has declined every year since 2018-19.

    Collins is locked into a sub-max deal that will top out at just $26.6 million in 2024-25, with a player option for that same amount in 2025-26. That makes him the best long-term value of anyone on this list. And when you price in his potential to keep improving, there's a chance he actually deserves to rank one spot higher.

1. Ben Simmons, Philadelphia 76ers

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    Matt Slocum/Associated Press

    This list is littered with quality starters, high-end role players and even a two-time of All-Star.

    Ben Simmons, warts and all, is on a different level.

    He's a two-time All-Defensive first-teamer, a three-time All-Star and the only guy we've discussed to have made an All-NBA team. Throw in career averages of 15.9 points, 8.1 rebounds and 7.7 assists—three-category figures no one in this exercise can even sniff—and slotting Simmons at No. 1 was an inevitability.

    No, Simmons isn't a top scoring option. And yes, his refusal to shoot threes will create fit issues wherever he lands. But a five-position defender who distributes like a point guard, rebounds like a center and supercharges a team's transition attack all on his own makes it worthwhile to work through those concerns.

    It's fair to worry about how Simmons will handle another pressure-packed moment after the way he wilted against the Hawks in last year's conference semifinals. But this is a 25-year-old star on a guaranteed contract that will keep him under team control through 2025. Daryl Morey is asking for a premium return because Simmons is a premium player.

           

    Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Feb. 2. Salary info via Spotrac.

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