It's easy to pick which players are going to be the safest picks in any NFL Draft class. But selecting busts? That gets a bit trickier.
Any time you are prognosticating which players will bust, you are casting doubt upon talented players that will go early. These players are often viewed as relatively safe picks and "can't miss" prospects.
That said, as much as everyone likes to talk about the NFL Draft in certainties, it is largely a crapshoot. Busts exist, and they can come from anywhere. Of course, the most notable ones come in the first couple rounds of the draft, as those premium picks are the ones that teams are supposed to get right.
The 2022 NFL Draft class could provide a lot of early-round busts. Why? Because the draft lacks the top-end, blue-chip talent that recent classes have possessed. That means that some risky players will be overdrafted, and it also means that players with concerns about experience, size, competition level, character or injuries could go higher than usual.
But who are the biggest boom-or-bust candidates in the 2022 NFL Draft? Sporting News runs through some of the riskiest players that will likely go in the first or second round of this year's draft.
MORE NFL DRAFT: TSN's 7-round mock | Top 150 big board
2022 NFL Draft bust candidates
Every first-round quarterback
This is cheating a bit, but the fact of the matter is that this is one of the weakest quarterback classes that the NFL has seen in quite some time. That doesn't mean that all of the top passers are going to bust, but each player taken in the first round will come with a bevy of risks.
Malik Willis is currently the favorite to be the first quarterback taken in the draft. That makes sense given that he has the most impressive physical tools — arm strength, mobility, etc. — of the bunch. However, Willis' accuracy was fleeting at 61.1 percent, and he got nearly all of his college playing experience at Liberty.
While the Flames recently moved to the FBS, the NFL is still going to be a massive jump in competition for the raw Willis. As such, it could take him longer to adapt to the pro game than many are expecting. Essentially, he's facing a similar development curve to Zach Wilson and Trey Lance, so it could be hard for him to succeed as a rookie if pressed into starting duty.
The other seemingly surefire first-round quarterback prospect is Kenny Pickett. The Pitt product is the most pro-ready of this year's crop of passers and threw for 42 touchdowns last year. He has solid size, a good arm, is very accurate and can move around the pocket well.
What's not to like about Pickett? Two reasons. First, there are questions about his upside and whether he will be able to elevate the play of those around him. Second, he is a bit of a one-year wonder, as he totaled only 38 touchdowns compared to 24 interceptions in his previous three seasons combined. And during that time, he never posted a completion percentage higher than 61.6 percent.
There are other quarterbacks that could sneak into the first round as well. Desmond Ridder has been rising in mock drafts. He won a lot as a four-year starter in college, but he doesn't have the biggest arm. Matt Corral could also sneak into Day 1. He's a gritty competitor, but he's small and has to improve his field-reading ability at the NFL level.
Teams will take these quarterbacks early because they do have starting potential. However, the positional value of quarterbacks is pushing them up the draft board despite the fact that they all have potentially fatal flaws that could make them busts. That makes them a risky selection for any team wanting to spend a first-round pick on a passer.
Travon Walker, EDGE, Georgia
Walker has been one of the fastest risers ahead of the 2022 NFL Draft. He could end up being the No. 1 overall pick, but he could also end up being one of the biggest busts of draft weekend.
The logic for this pick is simple. Sure, Walker is a great athlete. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.51 seconds, completed the 3-cone drill in 6.89 seconds and blazed the short shuttle in 4.32 seconds, but he didn't exactly stand out in Georgia's defense.
Walker had decent numbers — 33 tackles, six sacks — with the Bulldogs last season. Even still, fans of college football heard more about Jordan Davis and Nakobe Dean as the driving forces of that Georgia front seven. There was decidedly less buzz about Walker, who put up pass-rushing tape that was only OK.
Walker has the athletic ability needed to be a good NFL pass rusher, but can he play as explosively as the numbers indicate? He didn't at Georgia. And will he do as well without other top-tier defenders around to help him? The upside is there, but it may be hard for Walker to live up to what's sure to be a lofty draft status.
Kayvon Thibodeaux, EDGE, Oregon
Thibodeaux was once considered a potential candidate for the No. 1 overall pick, but things have changed for the former Oregon star. He has steadily watched his draft stock decline and will probably be the third edge rusher off the board behind Aidan Hutchinson and Walker.
What has caused Thibodeaux to drop in the edge defender rankings? Some teams and draft analysts are questioning Thibodeaux's competitive drive, as ESPN's Todd McShay pointed out after the Senior Bowl.
I heard a lot about Oregon defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, including concerns that he just doesn't play with the same fire as some other top prospects. His ceiling is high, but the floor is lower than what you want for a top-five pick. And based on a handful of conversations, it wouldn't shock me if Thibodeaux fell out of the top five.
Since then, Thibodeaux decided not to do on-field drills at the NFL Combine, and negative reports of his work ethic and love of football emerged. Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer even reported that Dan Campbell and the Lions aren't considering him with the No. 2 pick.
“His personality is a lot,” an NFL executive told Breer, “and you hear the head coach there isn’t a fan.”
These rumors are enough to make the prospect of drafting Thibodeaux a risk. Perhaps the work ethic concerns will be unfounded, but if they aren't it will be hard for Thibodeaux to find consistent success against the bigger, stronger, faster athletes in the NFL.
NFL DRAFT ORDER: All 262 picks in the 2022 NFL Draft in order
Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
Penning looks the part of a quality offensive tackle at the NFL level, but he is undeniably raw. The 6-7, 325-pound blocker played very well against the lesser competition of the FCS, but has a couple of issues he needs to work on at the next level.
First and foremost, Penning was heavily penalized during his time at Northern Iowa. He committed a whopping 16 penalties in 2021, tied for the most in both FBS and FCS competition with Tulsa's Tyler Smith. During his career in total, Penning had 34 total penalties, including 12 in 2019.
Penning's biggest problem is that he tends to grab and hold players when he gets out of position and off balance. And his beloved "mean streak" can cause him to cross the line on occasion. As such, he needs to work on his technique, play with more discipline and add a bit of strength so he doesn't get pushed back on bull rushes, as he was at times during Senior Bowl practices.
Can I interest you in a tackle prospect who is easily bull rushed and was flagged 16 times? pic.twitter.com/3MlWhH8Evh
— Theo Ash (@TheoAshNFL) April 15, 2022
There's a good chance that Penning will improve at the NFL level, but he's definitely a boom-or-bust prospect. And as the draft draws nearer, he continues to rise and could end up going in the top 10. If that happens, it may be difficult for him to live up to that lofty billing.
Drake London, WR, USC
There's no doubt that London has potential. The 6-4, 219-pound receiver has a big frame and was productive at USC. He generated 88 catches for 1,084 yards and seven touchdowns for the Trojans despite playing in just eight games.
London compares favorably to Buccaneers star Mike Evans, though London is a bit lighter than Tampa Bay's long-time No. 1 receiver. However, London's speed is something of a concern, and it's one that he didn't quell before the 2022 NFL Draft.
London didn't run the 40-yard dash at his Pro Day. The importance of the 40-yard dash has waned in recent seasons, but it's still an important measure of straight-line speed, especially for big-bodied receivers. London didn't feel he was prepared to run it as he continued to recover from a fractured ankle, as he told ESPN, and also quipped that he did enough on tape to prove his speed.
"Watch the film," London said. "At the end of the day, I really don't have to blow by guys to catch the ball. I mean, I can, but I don't have to."
London is right. He doesn't have to beat players with speed; but if it's an issue for him, that could limit his ability to separate from faster NFL defensive backs.
Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
Dean was a star at Georgia and was a key part of their stellar defense during their College Football Playoff National Championship win in 2022. He totaled 72 tackles, six sacks and two interceptions for the Bulldogs and showed off solid instincts and great athletic abilities.
The only thing Dean is missing is size. He stands at just 5-11 and weighs 229 pounds. That's a full three inches shorter and 16 pounds lighter than the average NFL linebacker, according to the University of Idaho.
| Player | Height | Weight (lbs.) |
| Nakobe Dean | 5-11 | 229 |
| Average NFL linebacker | 6-2 | 245 |
Dean's athletic ability may help him to carve out a role in the NFL, but his lacking size and length could also limit his tackling ability against bigger ball carries. More importantly, it could impact his ability in coverage, as he will need to have great instincts and make-up speed to compensate for his lacking length.
Dean could pan out, as players like Matt Milano (6-0) and Nick Bolton (5-11) have emerged as quality producers in recent years. Still, there are enough reasons to be concerned about spending a first-round pick on him.
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Christian Watson, WR, North Dakota State
Watson, like Penning, will be dealing with a jump in competition when he comes to the NFL. He played at North Dakota State and was a star there, averaging 20.5 yards per catch during his college career and recording 800 receiving yards as a senior.
That said, Watson needs to work on his route running to ensure that he will make a bigger impact at the NFL level. Currently, he's best operating as a deep speed threat thanks to his 4.36 speed and 6-4, 208-pound size. He can continue to do that at the NFL level, but he needs to avoid becoming a one-dimensional field stretcher; he needs to work on his short to intermediate route running.
In short, Watson is raw. He has the traits needed to become a quality NFL player, but he needs to put it all together. If he does, he could become a true do-it-all weapon. If not, then he may end up being more of a Marquez Valdes-Scantling type as an inconsistent deep threat.
If a team uses a first-round pick on Watson, they'll be hoping to get the former version of Watson. It is a risk, however, and could take some time to pan out.