2022 NBA Mock Draft: Magic take Chet Holmgren at No. 1 in first projection after Orlando wins lottery

Losing a lot can actually be a good thing in the NBA. On Tuesday night, the Magic were reminded of this fact when the reward for their 22-60 record was a lucky break in the lottery that gave them the right to select first in the 2022 NBA Draft.

Who will Orlando take?

That remains undetermined and is worthy of debate. No matter what anybody tries to tell you, this is not 2003 (LeBron James) or 2012 (Anthony Davis) or 2019 (Zion Williamson), all of which were years when every franchise would have selected the same player with the first pick. In 2022, at least three players — Chet Holmgren, Paolo Banchero and Jabari Smith — could reasonably go No. 1, and I'm certain you can find mock drafts with each of them going No. 1. But me? I've developed into a Holmgren-believer over the past year and genuinely think the Magic should select him with the No. 1 pick and pair him with former high school teammate and fellow Gonzaga alum Jalen Suggs.

Yes, I know, the center position has never been less valued in the NBA. But awesome centers — like two-time MVP Nikola Jokic, for instance — are still awesome. And Holmgren really could be, and really should be, an awesome center at the NBA level given that he's a 7-foot rim protector who is so skilled offensively that he can bounce it on the perimeter, play-make and reliably sink shots from the 3-point line. Is his skinny frame a concern? Sure. Nobody would suggest otherwise. But I just think it's smarter to focus on what Holmgren is rather than obsess about his possible limitations, and if the Magic do that they'll take this draft's most-talented prospect with this draft's first pick.

Mock Draft

Round 1

Round 1 - Pick 1 Chet Holmgren C Gonzaga • Fr • 7'1" / 208 lbs Projected Team Orlando PROSPECT RNK 2nd POSITION RNK 1st PPG 14.1 RPG 9.9 APG 1.9 3P% 39% I understand the concerns about Holmgren's slight frame — but he's such a unique talent that I'd be uncomfortable passing on a 7-foot legitimate rim-protector who can also bounce it like a guard and reliably make 3-pointers. He's the most talented prospect in this draft and should be selected as such.

Round 1 - Pick 2 Paolo Banchero PF Duke • Soph • 6'10" / 250 lbs Projected Team Oklahoma City PROSPECT RNK 3rd POSITION RNK 1st PPG 17.2 RPG 7.8 APG 3.2 3P% 33.8% Banchero is probably the safest option at the top of this draft. He's a big, strong and skilled forward who could be an incredible building block in Oklahoma City alongside Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.

Round 1- Pick 3 Jabari Smith PF Auburn • Soph • 6'10" / 220 lbs Projected Team Houston PROSPECT RNK 4th POSITION RNK 2nd PPG 16.9 RPG 7.4 APG 2 3P% 42% Smith still needs to develop in lots of ways but he's already a great shooter and switchable defender who plays with great energy. If he doesn't go first or second — and he obviously could — the Rockets will be thrilled to snag him with the third pick in this draft.

Round 1 - Pick 4 Jaden Ivey SG Purdue • Soph • 6'4" / 195 lbs Projected Team Sacramento PROSPECT RNK 1st POSITION RNK 1st PPG 17.3 RPG 4.9 APG 3.1 3P% 35.8% Ivey is an explosive athlete who plays big and is capable of attacking the rim in a variety of ways. As the Kings continue to build, the Purdue star would be a great option at this point in the draft in part because he could reasonably play beside DeAaron Fox.

Round 1 - Pick 5 Keegan Murray PF Iowa • Soph • 6'8" / 225 lbs Projected Team Detroit PROSPECT RNK 8th POSITION RNK 3rd PPG 23.5 RPG 8.7 APG 1.5 3P% 39.8% Murray is a switchable big who can guard in space and consistently make shots from the perimeter. What he does, at his size, is perfectly suited for the modern NBA and would fit well with a Detroit franchise trying to return to respectability with Cade Cunningham as the centerpiece.

Round 1 - Pick 6 Shaedon Sharpe SG Kentucky • Soph • 6'5" / 208 lbs Projected Team Indiana PROSPECT RNK 5th POSITION RNK 2nd Even though he enrolled in January and was eligible to compete, Sharpe never played at Kentucky in part because the people around him wanted to protect his status as a projected top-10 pick. Unless he really bombs in workouts, it's hard to imagine the explosive athlete going much lower than this considering he's a gifted scorer with the physical tools to be a disruptive defender on the wing in Indiana.

Round 1 - Pick 7 Ochai Agbaji SG Kansas • Soph • 6'5" / 215 lbs Projected Team Portland PROSPECT RNK 9th POSITION RNK 3rd PPG 18.8 RPG 5.1 APG 1.6 3P% 40.9% I'm higher on Agbaji than most simply because I don't understand what's not to like about a 6-5 athlete who is a plus-defender on the wing and excellent 3-point shooter. Once you get past the top-tier prospects in this draft, the Kansas All-American makes as much sense as anybody and would provide Damian Lillard with a new teammate equipped to help from Day One.

From Los Angeles Lakers Round 1 - Pick 8 Johnny Davis SF Wisconsin • Soph • 6'4" / 195 lbs Projected Team New Orleans PROSPECT RNK 10th POSITION RNK 2nd PPG 19.7 RPG 8.2 APG 2.1 3P% 30.6% Davis went from a mostly anonymous power-conference player to a candidate for national player of the year in his sophomore season at Wisconsin. An ankle injury limited him down the stretch, but he showed enough before that to justify his status as a projected lottery pick.

Round 1 - Pick 9 Jalen Duren C Memphis • Soph • 6'10" / 250 lbs Projected Team San Antonio PROSPECT RNK 13th POSITION RNK 2nd PPG 12 RPG 8.1 APG 1.3 FG% 59.7% Duren isn't really the type of floor-spacing big franchises prefer these days, but he's such a physical specimen and great athlete that there's probably a place for him in the top 10 of this draft. At worst, he should be a terrific rim-running and rim-protecting center who alters shots and dunks everything.

Round 1 - Pick 10 Bennedict Mathurin SG Arizona • Soph • 6'5" / 210 lbs Projected Team Washington PROSPECT RNK 11th POSITION RNK 4th PPG 17.7 RPG 5.6 APG 2.5 3P% 36.9% Mathurin was the star of Arizona's team that won the Pac-12 and earned a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. The 6-6 wing is an impressive athlete and above-average shooter who could lighten the scoring load on Bradley Beal in Washington

Round 1 - Pick 11 Jeremy Sochan PF Baylor • Soph • 6'8" / 230 lbs Projected Team New York PROSPECT RNK 12th POSITION RNK 4th PPG 9.2 RPG 6.4 APG 1.8 3P% 29.6% Sochan is the rare sub-100 high school recruit who could be a one-and-done lottery pick. His ability to guard multiple positions in multiple ways is among the reasons he's a tantalizing prospect who is one of the most versatile players available in this draft.

From Los Angeles Clippers Round 1 - Pick 12 AJ Griffin SF Duke • Soph • 6'6" / 220 lbs Projected Team Oklahoma City PROSPECT RNK 7th POSITION RNK 1st PPG 10.4 RPG 3.9 APG 1 3P% 44.7% It took Griffin a little while to get comfortable at Duke because of a preseason knee injury that seemed to affect his ability to show his athleticism. But the five-star high school recruit, who is the son of former NBA player Adrian Griffin, eventually showed glimpses of why he's a lottery talent, mostly by proving to be a fantastic 3-point shooter who made 44.7% of his 4.1 attempts from beyond the arc per game.

Round 1 - Pick 13 Mark Williams C Duke • Soph • 7'0" / 240 lbs Projected Team Charlotte PROSPECT RNK 14th POSITION RNK 3rd PPG 11.2 RPG 7.4 APG 0.9 FG% 72.1% Williams, like fellow projected lottery pick Duren, is more of a traditional big than a modern big. But any franchise in need of a rim-protector and lob-catcher — like Charlotte — would have to consider him at this point in the draft.

Round 1 - Pick 14 Malaki Branham SF Ohio State • Soph • 6'4" / 180 lbs Projected Team Cleveland PROSPECT RNK 16th POSITION RNK 3rd PPG 13.7 RPG 3.6 APG 2 3P% 41.6% Branham is a shooting guard with good size and great length who really flourished in the second half of the season. While shooting 41.6% from the 3-point line, the one-and-done standout became the Big Ten's Freshman of the Year and a legitimate lottery option for his home-state franchise.

From New Orleans Pelicans Round 1 - Pick 15 Tari Eason PF LSU • Soph • 6'8" / 215 lbs Projected Team Charlotte PROSPECT RNK 15th POSITION RNK 5th PPG 16.9 RPG 6.6 APG 1 3P% 35.9% Eason was a breakout star at LSU after transferring following a so-so first season at Cincinnati. He's a versatile frontcourt option who can guard multiple positions and punish defenses in transition opportunities.

Round 1 - Pick 16 Ousmane Dieng SF France • Soph • 6'9" / 185 lbs Projected Team Atlanta PROSPECT RNK 26th POSITION RNK 6th Dieng is a long and skilled prospect who still needs to develop but is worth a serious look anywhere outside of the lottery. He might not contribute immediately but definitely projects as an interesting long-term investment with undeniable potential.

From Brooklyn Nets Round 1 - Pick 17 Dyson Daniels SG G League Ignite • Soph • 6'7" / 199 lbs Projected Team Houston PROSPECT RNK 17th POSITION RNK 5th PPG 11.3 RPG 5.9 APG 4.4 3P% 25.5% Daniels isn't quite the prospect previous Ignite stars have been but is still a fascinating guard with size who can play with or without the ball. His jumper, at this point, is the biggest area of concern.

Round 1 - Pick 18 Walker Kessler C Auburn • Soph • 7'0" / 245 lbs Projected Team Chicago PROSPECT RNK 28th POSITION RNK 4th PPG 11.4 RPG 8.1 APG 0.9 3P% 20% Kessler was arguably the best defensive player in college basketball this season while averaging 4.6 blocks per game. He's an incredible rim-protector with the potential to develop into a comfortable perimeter shooter.

Round 1 - Pick 19 TyTy Washington Jr. PG Kentucky • Soph • 6'3" / 195 lbs Projected Team Minnesota PROSPECT RNK 6th POSITION RNK 1st PPG 12.5 RPG 3.5 APG 3.9 3P% 35% Washington mostly played off the ball in his one season at Kentucky but projects as a lead guard in the NBA. Ankle injuries limited him in the second half of the season but the one-and-done Wildcat showed enough before he was hampered to solidify his status as a top-20 pick.

From Toronto Raptors Round 1 - Pick 20 Jaden Hardy SG G League Ignite • Soph • 6'3" / 198 lbs Projected Team San Antonio PROSPECT RNK 19th POSITION RNK 6th PPG 17.7 RPG 4.6 APG 3.2 3P% 26.9% Hardy didn't do much over the past year to help his draft stock — but he's still a likely first-round talent capable of developing into a special player. Being drafted by a franchise like San Antonio would probably be the best thing for the trajectory of his career.

Round 1 - Pick 21 Kendall Brown SF Baylor • Soph • 6'7" / 205 lbs Projected Team Denver PROSPECT RNK 18th POSITION RNK 4th PPG 9.7 RPG 4.9 APG 1.9 3P% 34.1% Brown never really became more than a role player in his one season at Baylor, which is notable and somewhat concerning. But the 6-8 wing still has the physical tools to make him worthy of a first-round pick from a Denver franchise desperate to put more talent around Nikola Jokic.

From Utah Jazz Round 1 - Pick 22 Kennedy Chandler PG Tennessee • Fr • 5'11" / 170 lbs Projected Team Memphis PROSPECT RNK 34th POSITION RNK 3rd PPG 13.9 RPG 3.2 APG 4.7 3P% 38.3% The possibility of Tyus Jones leaving via free agency might have Memphis in the market for a point guard. At this point in the draft, the best option would be Chandler — the Memphis-raised product who has won at every level and already possesses a close relationship with Grizzlies' star Ja Morant.

From Philadelphia 76ers Round 1 - Pick 23 E.J. Liddell PF Ohio State • Fr • 6'6" / 240 lbs Projected Team Brooklyn PROSPECT RNK 29th POSITION RNK 8th PPG 19.4 RPG 7.9 APG 2.5 3P% 37.4% Liddell is the type of player who could help Brooklyn's core of Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving and Ben Simmons theoretically compete for a title next season. He's undersized but effective.

Round 1 - Pick 24 Wendell Moore Jr. SF Duke • Soph • 6'5" / 215 lbs Projected Team Milwaukee PROSPECT RNK 30th POSITION RNK 7th PPG 13.4 RPG 5.3 APG 4.4 3P% 41.3% Moore shot above 40% from 3-point range in his final season at Duke. The bet here is that his jumper is a translatable skill, which would be valuable in a place like Milwaukee, where chasing championships with Giannis Antetokounmpo is the goal for the foreseeable future.

From Boston Celtics Round 1 - Pick 25 Christian Braun SG Kansas • Soph • 6'6" / 220 lbs Projected Team San Antonio PROSPECT RNK 31st POSITION RNK 11th PPG 14.1 RPG 6.5 APG 2.8 3P% 38.6% Braun is a wing with size who can guard his position, reliably make jumpers and finish in transition. He's the type of prospect who could flourish in the culture San Antonio has established.

Round 1 - Pick 26 Jean Montero SG Overtime Elite • 6'2" / 172 lbs Projected Team Dallas PROSPECT RNK 20th POSITION RNK 7th Jalen Brunson's pending free agency could lead to a departure from Dallas, which might have the Mavericks targeting a primary ball-handler with this pick. If so, Montero, a deep-shooting guard who is still only 18 years old, would be a reasonable option.

Round 1 - Pick 27 Blake Wesley SG Notre Dame • Soph • 6'3" / 185 lbs Projected Team Miami PROSPECT RNK 24th POSITION RNK 10th PPG 14.4 RPG 3.7 APG 2.4 3P% 30.3% Adding a young athlete to the backcourt wouldn't be the worst idea for a Miami franchise that has advanced to the Eastern Conference Finals. Wesley is exactly that and would be a steal at the bottom of the first round if his jumper becomes more consistent.

Round 1 - Pick 28 Christian Koloko C Arizona • Fr • 7'0" / 230 lbs Projected Team Golden St. PROSPECT RNK 45th POSITION RNK 5th PPG 12.6 RPG 7.3 APG 1.4 3P% 0% With James Wiseman's potential unclear, the Warriors could target a center with their first-round pick. Koloko is the reigning Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year with better mobility than most bigs his size.

Round 1 - Pick 29 Patrick Baldwin Jr. PF Milw. • Soph • 6'9" / 220 lbs Projected Team Memphis PROSPECT RNK 37th POSITION RNK 9th PPG 12.1 RPG 5.8 APG 1.5 3P% 26.6% Baldwin was a projected top-10 pick before he more or less disappeared for a year after choosing to play for his father at Milwaukee. The Grizzlies could afford to take a big swing here and see if they hit on another pick late in the first round.

From Phoenix Suns Round 1 - Pick 30 Nikola Jovic SF Serbia • Soph • 6'10" / 205 lbs Projected Team Oklahoma City PROSPECT RNK 21st POSITION RNK 5th Oklahoma City remains very much in rebuild mode with a young core of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey. Adding an 18-year-old international prospect like Jovic to the franchise could be a nice long-term move.