Betting Guide for Capital One's The Match VI: Brady-Rodgers vs. Allen-Mahomes

The sixth edition of Capital One's The Match is nearly here, and with it comes a new wrinkle. This time the event will see an all-NFL quarterback scramble take place at the Wynn Golf Club on the Las Vegas strip.

The Match VI pits a pair of grizzled veterans in Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers—who went head-to-head in The Match IV last July—against two young superstars in Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, both making their first appearance in this series.

Their skills will be put to the test on the Tom Fazio-designed course. Regular viewers of The Match will be familiar with the setting after it hosted a faceoff between rivals Brooks Koepka and Bryson DeChambeau November.

It's a challenging, championship-caliber par-70 course where many of the holes will offer significant water hazards for participants to overcome as they battle to rake in money for their favorite charities.

The Match VI will use a shamble format, meaning each team will select the best tee-shot as a starting spot and then play their own balls from there. The best score from each side will be used to determine which squad wins that hole.

DraftKings Sportsbook recently put odds on the board for this matchup. Bettors can wager on far more than the outright winner of the event, with props covering everything from hole-in-ones and closest-to-the-pin challenges to the victors of individual holes and the longest tee shots.

This competition can be tricky to bet, with so much opportunity for chaos to unfold—especially with non-professionals involved—across 12 holes on a 6,722-yard course.

Read on to see some of the best wagers you can make before The Match VI tees off at 6:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday.

Brady/Rodgers to win: -210

Allen/Mahomes to win: +175

Bookmakers have installed Brady and Rodgers as the odds-on favorites for The Match VI.

The two Super Bowl champions have more than just NFL experience. They offered viewers a glimpse into their golfing skills last year when they battled alongside Phil Mickelson and Bryson DeChambeau, respectively, in Big Sky, Montana. Brady also participated in The Match II, teaming with Mickelson for the first time to take on Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning.

While Brady may be 0-2 in this setting, Rodgers was instrumental to his side's victory last year, making several big putts and other impressive shots in his first appearance. He will look to keep that record unblemished Wednesday.

The Green Bay Packers star has a great chance of accomplishing that goal given his status as the best golfer in the field, a tremendous boon in a shamble format where the best score is the only one counted on each hole. 

Jeff Faraudo of SI.com tracked down the handicaps of all four NFL stars and found that Rodgers has the lowest of the foursome at a 4.6. Mahomes comes in second with a 7.7, while Brady boasts an 8.1 and Allen is only slightly behind at a 9.0.

Allen and Mahomes have the chops to make this installment of The Match competitive, however, as both offer some big hitting power. While that power could come in handy on some holes, it could get them in trouble on some of the more challenging, hazard-filled portions of the Wynn Golf Club course.

Prediction: Bettors will have to pay a premium in the form of -210 odds—risking $2.10 to win $1—but the longtime NFL veterans are favorites here for good reason. They will outduel their younger counterparts over 12 holes thanks to Rodgers' low handicap and tendency to come up clutch in competitive golf scenarios.

Best Bet: Brady/Rodgers -210

Brady/Rodgers nearest to the pin: -130

Allen/Mahomes nearest to the pin: +105

One of the standard props for The Match involves picking which player or side will land a tee-shot closest to the pin. This prop is on the board for the fourth hole, a short par three that rewards the golfers who can hit their initial shots most true.   

With the flagstick sitting only 147 yards from the championship tees, there's a chance that all four participants land one on the green come Wednesday evening.

It's also possible that at least one side sends one or both tee shots into the water, which lurks to the left of the green and can turn a relatively straightforward hole into a nightmare.

Allen and Mahomes may have an advantage on some of the longer par threes at the Wynn Golf Club, but this particular hole is one where the collective precision of the older competitors will pay off.

While both teams have long odds of reaching within 10 feet of the pin in a separate prop bet, Brady and Rodgers have been given slightly better odds of placing one that close at +450 compared to Allen and Mahomes at +500.

Prediction: Rodgers' status as the best golfer in the field will be readily apparent here as he lands a shot within 15 yards, cashing tickets for his closest-to-the-pin backers on hole No. 4.

Best bet: Brady/Rodgers -130

Any player hits a hole-in-one on Nos. 4, 6, 8 or 12: Yes (+50000), NO (OFF)

Brady made headlines this week when a drone captured him allegedly holing out during a practice session.

Skeptics—including Allen—immediately questioned the veracity of the shot, which Brady carefully avoided calling a "hole-in-one" because it was taken off a makeshift tee in the middle of a fairway.

Regardless of whether Brady legitimately sank that, it's highly unlikely the 44-year-old or any of the other three competitors will pull off a real ace in Vegas.

There's yet to be a single hole-in-one carded in any prior The Match events, including one involving two of the top professional golfers at this same course a half-year ago.

If Koekpa or DeChambeau couldn't drain one off the tee at the Wynn Golf Club, it's improbable one of these amateur golfing quarterbacks will accomplish the feat Wednesday.

While it may be tempting to fish for a big payout—each of the four hole-in-one props would pay $500 for each $1 staked—serious bettors will want to avoid throwing away money here and save it for one of the other props with a much more realistic chance of profiting.

Prediction: No one will card a hole-in-one. 

Best bet: With the "No" side of this prop off the board, stay away from it entirely.

Brady/Rodgers have longest tee shot: -130

Allen/Mahomes have longest tee shot: +105

Rodgers and Brady may have a lower collective handicap, but these aging stars can't achieve the same length off the tee as their youthful rivals.

Fading them on tee-shot-length prop bets will be a profitable play during The Match VI, especially on hole No. 2.

This hole is the shortest par five of the four at Wynn Golf Club, spanning a reachable 515 yards. It's also one of the least hazardous holes, allowing the QBs to bomb off the tee with little to worry about.

While there will be some water to consider on the approach, Mahomes and Allen can try to outdo each other like it's the end of the 2022 AFC Championship Game and simply go for the longest possible drive.

Prediction: Given Mahomes' showing off the tee at other events—including a 347-yard drive at a contest during the American Century Celebrity Golf Championship—and Allen's proven ability to mash, there is great value in taking them at better than even money to win the longest-shot prop on No. 2.

Best bet: Allen/Mahomes +105

Brady/Rodgers to Win Hole No. 5: +170

Allen/Mahomes to Win Hole No. 5: +235

Tie at Hole No. 5: +130

The longest hole of The Match VI will be one of the most thrilling to watch. It's also a spot where bettors can lock in some immense prop value.

Despite the odds suggesting otherwise, this massive 591-yard par five is a hole where Mahomes and Allen should thrive.

Mahomes is confident his side has an advantage on the lengthy holes, boasting about his and Allen's driving skills while taking a jab at the age of Brady and Rodgers (via ESPN's Rob Demovsky):

"The reason we're going to win is that we're going to be able to play the course differently than old Tom and old Aaron over there. They might get us on a couple of par 3s and stuff like that but whenever we can really open it up and use the drivers ... it's going to be nice to be able to use our little wedges like they use their 6-irons."

These big-hitting QBs will be rewarded if they can avoid errant shots into the bunker off the tee and keep their follow-ups on the relatively narrow fairway, steadily working their way toward a green with water on two sides.

Prediction: While things could go wrong quickly because of the hazards, there is a high likelihood that both Allen and Mahomes will reach the green in fewer shots than their counterparts. As long as one putts well, they should have little issue taking this hole. Considering the underdogs will net bettors $2.35 for each $1 staked, it's well worth the risk.

Best Bet: Allen/Mahomes +235

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