The worm, as it often does in basketball, has turned. (This is not a reference to Dennis Rodman.)
For once — a rarity these days in the NBA, where guard and wing play dominates almost all discussion – the top of this year’s NBA draft is about the bigs. Auburn power forward Jabari Smith, Gonzaga big Chet Holmgren and Duke forward Paolo Banchero are near locks to be, in some order, the top three players taken — by either Orlando, picking first, Oklahoma City at No. 2 or Houston at No. 3. Further making a big man the likely first pick is the Magic’s recent history of taking long, rangy players in the first round — Jonathan Isaac (2017), Mo Bamba (2018) and Chuma Okeke (2019) — under president of basketball operations Jeff Weltman and general manager John Hammond. It was Hammond who, famously, took a flier as the Bucks’ GM in 2013 on a ridiculously long but incredibly green prospect who was playing in Greece’s second-best professional league with Milwaukee’s first-round pick — a young man whose name few in the States could pronounce, or spell, correctly: Giannis Antetokounmpo.
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But that doesn’t mean this year’s group of incoming guards brings nothing to the party.
There are any number of incoming guards who have elite scoring potential, toughness, shooting and passing chops. Some, actually, care a little about defending. And if your team hits on the right one, man, it’s like an injection of adrenaline into a franchise. Memphis takes Ja Morant No. 2 in 2019, and the Memphis Grizzlies are, almost overnight, transformed. It took a little longer for the Golden State Warriors after taking Stephen Curry seventh in 2009, but it happened. Similar shapeshifts are taking place in Minnesota (Anthony Edwards, No. 1, 2020), Cleveland (Darius Garland, No. 5, 2019), Atlanta (Trae Young, No. 5, 2018) and Charlotte (LaMelo Ball, No. 3, 2020).
Again, for new readers and subscribers: I make no bones about the fact that this series is, while an offshoot of pre-draft columns I used to write for years for NBA.com, also a blatant rip-off of my colleague Bruce Feldman’s annual NFL Draft Confidential. As Bruce’s work is a complement to Dane Brugler’s insanely thorough NFL pre-draft guide, The Beast, this work serves as an adjunct to Sam Vecenie’s crazy good and complete year-long NBA draft coverage. I will never be as deep into the weeds about draft prospects as Sam, who also does this from about 14 time zones away and with animals in his home. (Sam is ridiculous, in a good way.)
But I have gone to some trouble over the past few weeks to assemble my yearly cross-section of NBA personnel people and executives, along with college head and assistant coaches, who’ve either scouted this year’s top prospects or whose teams played against them this year. In exchange for (most of the time) anonymity, these folks give their unvarnished and frank opinions.
What this is not is a mock draft. I cannot be more direct: Mock drafts are a blight upon the world, whose collective damage may not be known for generations, and are best left to historians. They are a colossal waste of your time and of those who do them. I do not criticize those who do them, for one has to do something for a living, I know. But it’s a time suck because I know that mockers are being lied to, on a constant basis, by agents who swear on a stack of Bibles that their guy, for reals, is going top 10 — while also knowing, for reals, that is as likely as mice being able to rap “California Love” in Spanish.
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So, my guys don’t mock. They just tell me what they like and don’t like about the prospects. Are the players coachable? Do they try to defend? How do they vibe with their teammates — including those who, like them, are also trying to get their shine on in anticipation of entering the draft early? Are they good shooters already, or does the shot need work? Are they willing passers? Incorporated in these opinions are the players’ season-long body of work and what the NBA bird dogs have gathered since last month’s combine in Chicago, and subsequent team interviews with the players, along with the players’ individual pro days and pre-draft workouts with teams.
This is the first of three Confidentials before the June 23 draft. The next, in a week or so, will discuss the top wing players in the draft; the last, the week or so after that, will discuss the top big man prospects. (Some players can, and will, obviously play both guard and wing spots; I listed some players at guard, others at wing. For example, Kansas’ Christian Braun is projected as both a guard and a wing; I’ll list him with the wings. It’s not a really big deal either way in today’s positionless NBA.)
It’s Jaden Ivey’s (top-five) world
The only guard likely to crack the elite level of the first round is Ivey, the Purdue sophomore who averaged 17.3 points this past season for the Boilermakers, and who gobbled up all-American honors: first team by the National Association of Basketball Coaches and by the John Wooden Award, second team by Associated Press. He was just the second Purdue underclassman in nine decades to garner first-team All-American honors. The six-foot-four Ivey’s ridiculous hops and first step make him the top incoming guard, with some separation, over the rest of the guard pack, according to my guys. His pedigree is enhanced by his family ties: His mother, Niele, is a longtime former WNBA player and current head coach at Notre Dame, where she played college ball — and where Jaden’s father, Javin Hunter, also starred as a wide receiver in football before playing in the NFL for several seasons.
Eastern Conference Executive No. 1: He’s a (Russell) Westbrook/(Dwyane) Wade type of guy. I like (Purdue head coach) Matt Painter. But if Ivey had been in a situation where they get up and down the floor and get more open, there’s no telling what he could have done. I know Detroit loves Ivey.
Western Conference Executive No. 1: In his own tier. In the next two to three years, wherever he’s drafted, he’ll start immediately.
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College Assistant Coach No. 1 (his team played Purdue): Everybody always tries to make the Ja Morant comparison, which I think is a huge reach. It’s not close. If people could lose what they’ve seen from Russell Westbrook, and how they feel about Westbrook, Ivey is very similar. He’s downhill, he’s tough to guard. Against us, he beat us from the free-throw line. He got downhill. He can create a lot of fouls just because of his athleticism. I think he’s got a lot of work to do as a point guard. But I think his upside is really good, and from what I hear, he works his tail off. He’s got a lot of his game he has to work on. The part that people, when they make those comparisons with Ja Morant, it’s a horrible one. Ja Morant was leading college basketball in scoring and assists. Jaden passes it a little bit. And he don’t score it like that.
Western Conference Executive No. 2: Ivey’s a freak. Tad wild but puts immense pressure on the defense. May struggle some in the half court for a while.
Eastern Conference Executive No. 2: He’s got elite speed. He’s got the elite-level speed. And he’s got some size. He’s not like 6-foot or 5-11. He’s got good size to him. And he can touch the paint when he wants to. And in the open floor — oh, he’s got some turbo boost, kind of in the same vein as Ja Morant and Westbrook. And I think his neck up is better than what people give him credit for, because of his mom. He’s been around the game. It’s just getting the reps, and understanding when you put the ball in his hands as a point guard, what he needs to do on the NBA floor…
I think his execution will be a whole lot better than Russell’s, even at a young age. And the difference is, he’ll be getting coached. When Russell was young, Russell was allowed to just go out there. … (Ivey’s) shooting has gotten better. He’s got the toolset to do it (defensively), and he’s competitive enough that he’ll sit down and want to guard people. I don’t see him not giving a shit. He’s competitive enough. And you’ve got to be held accountable. If he’s held accountable, I think the kid will play defense. Watching him, I didn’t see a non-defender…
I see his advantage being at the point. How many traditional point guards are there in the NBA? ‘Cause positionless basketball has filtered into the backcourt, too. His IQ is just as good as Tyrese Maxey’s. Putting him at the point is the advantage. He’s not a guy that you’re going to be running a bunch of pindowns for. His advantage is open floor, getting into the seams, second side, third side, late in the shot clock, he’s got the boogie-woogie to get where he needs to go. He’s got the toolset. Now it’s on whoever drafts him to coach him to bring that all out.
The Mystery Man
Kentucky freshman Shaedon Sharpe is as big an unknown as there’s been coming into a draft as there’s been in some time. The 19-year-old was rated the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2022 draft class by ESPN, Rivals and 247Sports after dominating Nike’s EYBL in 2021. Initially, the thought was Sharpe would practice this year with the Wildcats, but not play until the 2022-23 season. But he enrolled at Kentucky last January, leading to speculation that he would play this season, during the Wildcats’ SEC schedule and in the NCAA Tournament. But he never played in a game before declaring for the NBA Draft in April.
It’s not that NBA people don’t think Sharpe can play. The question is whether one of them will use a top-10 pick on a talent whose scholastic career ended at Dream City Christian Academy in Arizona after starting out in high school in his native Ontario. Teams that weren’t certain if Sharpe would even be eligible for the draft — he turned 19 on May 30, but there was at least some initial uncertainty about his status — had to get up to speed, and there were no games of his to watch in Lexington. Still, someone will take the plunge early on draft night.
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Western Conference Executive No. 3: How the (expletive) can you be the fifth pick in the draft if you haven’t played in a year and a half? It’s not like it’s (James) Wiseman and the guy is 7 feet tall. Show me where the five (-star) shit is. Show me.
Western Conference Executive No. 4: (Michael) Porter (Jr.) had those last several games at Missouri (after back surgery). Kevin Porter at USC didn’t play the entire year because he was suspended off and on. This kid, we have nothing but YouTube video to go on. I think you are just taking an absolute swing. And you (have to) have ownership completely behind you in that swing, as well as your head coach and that staff. You gotta be patient, and you better have a plan, and everybody’s on board. You’re saying, we’re getting, he should have been the first pick in the draft, but we’re getting him at seven. We’re getting him at 11. There is just not a lot to go on. … The teams that are allowed to bring him in, it’s not going to be so much the workout. I think it’s going to be just getting to know the kid, see where his head is at. … you know the teams that could do that — the Oklahoma Citys, the San Antonios. The synergy between ownership and front office and coaches and strength and conditioning. … you could see a team’s eyes perk up because of what they see in this kid.
Green Room Ready
After Ivey and the uncertainty surrounding Sharpe, several guard prospects are jockeying with one another to go anywhere from inside the top 10 to the end of the lottery. The top prospects include Arizona sophomore Bennedict Mathurin, G League Ignite guard Dyson Daniels, Wisconsin sophomore Johnny Davis, Kansas senior Ochai Agbaji and three freshmen: Ohio State’s Malaki Branham, Notre Dame’s Blake Wesley and Kentucky’s TyTy Washington.
The book of Benn
Eastern Conference Executive No. 3: The system was better than it was with Sean (Miller). Still got a ways to go. The change to the system, more up-tempo, helped him tremendously this year. I went out there and watched practice early. Tommy (Lloyd, Arizona’s coach last season) was trying to get them to really push the pace, almost like Mike D’Antoni with the seven seconds. Of course, it was a little shorter with college, but they were throwing the ball all over the court, and I was thinking ‘Oh, man, this is not going to look well throughout the year,’ with the high turnovers. But they got a lot better as a team. It helped not only Ben; it helped (guard Dalen) Terry, it helped (center Christian) Koloko, and it helped the point guard, Kerr (Kriisa). But at the end, if Sean was still there, would (Mathurin) have had the year he had, this year? Probably would have had a good year, but not as good a year as he had with Tommy.
I think he’s better one-dribble pull-up, but he can do two. But I think he’s better as a one-dribble pull-up. It’s a better rhythm for him. He still needs to become a better ballhandler. The more times he has to put it on the floor, the more chances he’ll do something wrong. I would say (his range is) a foot beyond the NBA line right now, maybe, in terms of being consistent and knocking down shots. I would say (defense) is not totally consistent, but if he needs to focus in and shut someone down at a certain time of a game, he’s a pretty good defender. But he has to be more disciplined, more in focus during games than just down the stretch…
During the NCAA Tournament, it’s a finality in terms of the game. You don’t win, you’re out. So there is more pressure. But there’s also more focus, determination, desire to make sure that the play is done right, he makes the right play, or he knocks down the shot to make sure his team continues to go on. In that regard, do we look at that as scouts? Yes. Because it’s a big-time moment. … The story does have meaning, understands what his path or direction or journey might be, and how he overcomes those things.
Eastern Conference Executive No. 1: That guy, he reminds me of Ray Allen. Athletic. I don’t know if he shoots it quite as well. Ball skills are just OK. He can get better. Better defender than Ray, but similar. … They say him getting to the NBA Academy in Mexico may have saved him. He might have been in trouble had that not happened. Huge upside. Until he got to Arizona, he was an inside player. He doesn’t even realize what he can do. Doesn’t have a midrange game per se, and his ball skills are suspect, but that’s because he hasn’t played on the perimeter that long. But I think that can be developed.
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The Dyson vacuum
Western Conference Executive No. 4: If we re-draft in three to four years, he may be the guy who should have been taken higher. A 6-7 18-year-old that can play the point guard today, has a phenomenal basketball IQ and mature beyond his years. He can defend three positions. His shooting, sure, it needs work. But these kids get 250, 300 reps every single day, so his shooting will be adequate enough. He makes players around him better, and he can pass the ball. If there was a highlighted guy right now in my mind, this could be one where we should have took him and let the developmental time elapse, and we’ve got ourselves a cornerstone of our team for the next 10-12 years.
Jason Hart, Ignite Head Coach: That’s the difference with coming to Ignite and maybe going to college. If Dyson would have gone to college and gotten off to a slow start, he would have sat down on that bench for a junior or senior, and he would have gotten lost. Here, it was, (Ignite Program Director) Rod Strickland was saying, ‘We’ve got to bring it out of him.’ And the fastest way to do that was to keep him out there. I’m not taking you out. So there’s no life raft over here. It took him about two or three weeks to get used to the speed of the game. Now granted, he’s 18 years old, and he was over here from Australia by himself. So we’re talking about music, culture, living, weather, time. It just took a little time. Once he got acclimated, he took off. But I told him, ‘I’m not taking you out of the game. You make a mistake, you get tired, I’ll bring you out then. But you’ve got to fight through this.’ And it was more like the Orlando Magic and OKC — we’re going to let the young guys develop. It’s the same pattern. They’ve got to develop.
Western Conference Executive No. 2: Versatile with upside. Really covers.
G League Coach (his team played Ignite): When I saw him early, everyone was saying ‘He’s probably going to be a lottery pick, and I’m like ‘That dude? For real?’ … He struggled with his confidence early, but he improved the whole year. Every part of his game improved. Even his shooting, which, right now, is subpar. His shooting improved dramatically. He’s got great size. Seems to have a good basketball IQ. I could see that. Even when we played them, I could pick up that he had a very good basketball IQ. And the fact that he improved after such a rough start says to me, he has some toughness about him. … size, can do a little bit of everything. Passes the ball well. Looking at the tape, he’s actually shooting the ball better than Ben (Simmons), which might not be saying much. But at least he’s willing to shoot some 3s. But clearly will be in the top 15 someplace. …
Thinking about what he was like in November to now, he just moves with so much more confidence, more fluidity, more strength. He can probably guard one through four in the NBA. And even on some smaller fives, he’ll front the post, he’ll box them out, that type of thing. The big question mark is obviously the shooting piece. Just needs reps. Guys get better.
Heeeeere’s Johnny!
College Assistant Coach No. 2 (his team played Wisconsin): Really about their fourth or fifth best player last year (2020-21). Had his breakout game (this season, in January) at Purdue where he almost single-handedly won the game for them, made all these big shots, on the road, down the stretch, in high ball screens. He hit multiple 3s and was very aggressive driving to the basket. I think that catapulted him in the draft. A little like (Iowa forward Keegan) Murray in the tournament — he got banged up late in the year, and he kind of came back to earth a little bit. He and (Badgers guard) Brad Davison had to do so much on their team, I think they got worn out. They had the Big Ten season won outright, total, and they lost to Nebraska in their last home game when they had no business losing. So they had to tie for the Big Ten regular season instead of winning outright, and then they played terrible the rest of the year. (Guard Chucky) Hepburn got hurt. They weren’t deep enough. And Johnny Davis got hurt in the Nebraska game, and he was just a normal player the last four, five games.
College Assistant Coach No. 3 (his team also played Wisconsin): Good one-on-one player. The thing I’m not sold on is his ability to shoot the 3. As far as catching going to get his shot, his midrange is very strong. Good defender. Not sure how consistently he’s going to shoot; 6-5 at best, I would say. Good, strong, two-foot jumper in the paint. It’s going to be interesting with him. Not sure about his ballhandling in the open court. One or two dribbles, straight-line driver.
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Eastern Conference Executive No. 1: I think he’s being a little overhyped. His upside isn’t what some of these other guys are. But I like him. First, his shooting range is suspect. He can improve that. He’s a good athlete, not as good as Mathurin. What he does, he does. I don’t think his game is going to change. He’s a power type two, backs guys down. Good midrange. Mathurin: He has a lot of room for improvement. Davis: He is what he is.
Ohhhhhhchai
College Assistant Coach No. 4 (his team played Kansas): He just came back this year playing with so much more confidence. Obviously, everybody said his game improved. I think his game improved because he was a lot more confident. He came in this year like, I’m the man. I’m the guy. There was no hesitation in the pull-up jumper, there was no hesitation in the transition 3s. He was always able to get the ball to the basket. The way he shot his pull-up jumpers and transition 3s was the difference. I just felt he came back with a lot of confidence. What he likes to do more than anything is just come off and pull up. He doesn’t really come off the ball screen and get it to the basket. If he’s going right, he can do that. But for the most part, he’d rather just come off and pull up, that midrange game. He’s good defensively when he’s locked in.
Western Conference Executive No. 4: He’s solid. You’re hitting a single and hoping it gets to a double. I don’t think he has the talents and upside and potential that Ivey has, that Mathurin has, that Dyson has, that Branham has … if he gets drafted by a good team, (if he’s) surrounded by a playoff-thirsty team that’s right there, with players that are established, I think he fits into that box really well. But if he went to, say, a not-very-good team, and has to do a lot of things on his own, I think he could be exposed some. There were times this year where that was the case when teams were just keying on him, and he had a couple of 2-of-13 nights, 5-of-18. But there’s a role for him. He’s too good of a kid, he works too hard, he’s about the right stuff.
Pro-Branham
College Assistant Coach No. 2 (his team played Ohio State): Really had a great year. He got better as the season went on, especially if you let him get to his right hand. He loves (to) fake going left, then goes between the legs or crossover dribble and comes back to his right hand. I don’t think he’s as tall as advertised. I’ll be anxious to see what they officially measured at. Definitely a two. Streak shooter. Can get on a roll. He had some big games. I don’t think his (defensive commitment) was great throughout the year. He’ll have to improve in that area. I don’t know how good a defender Branham is.
Western Conference Executive No. 4: In that tier with Daniels. I don’t know another guard, unless you can name him, that came into the season not very heralded, and how he went through the year and progressed on that trajectory, and how he finished, was pretty impressive. We put Malaki in very high regard. His age, his versatility positionally, his basketball IQ. Guys like him are only in one place: They’re playing at least as a rotational or as a key reserve on NBA teams. If you were to merge Cat Mobley and Jordan Poole — if you put those two together — I think you have Malaki.
I saw him early, and he was good. I didn’t think he was a one-and-done. I saw him in the middle (of the season), and I was like, I’ve got to be doing my work on this guy a lot more soundly. At the end of the year, I’m not sure there was anybody playing more consistently than this kid. Jaden Ivey was up and down; Johnny Davis had some (bad) days, but Johnny wasn’t playing with anybody. Mathurin, I thought, the last 30, 40 days, was somewhat inconsistent. Whereas this kid took his game to another level. I believe he’s very close with Mathurin.
Team Wesley
College Head Coach No. 1 (his team played Notre Dame): He’s got it all, except can he shoot the 3 consistently enough? He’s got ball skills, a good defender for a young player, can make midrange shots, he’s athletic. I think he’s a true point. But he should be a better shooter, you know what I mean? He just hasn’t shot it consistently well enough. But he’s legit.
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College Head Coach No. 2 (his team also played Notre Dame): I think he’s fabulous. I love him. If Paolo Banchero hadn’t been in the league, he’d be freshman of the year in the ACC. He can get downhill, he can score, he can shoot it. Got good size, athleticism. I was thoroughly impressed with him. He’s good. I like him a lot. I think Blake Wesley is a dude.
College Head Coach No. 3 (his team also played Notre Dame): The first time I saw him was on tape … I started watching him … and he jumped off the tape. I had never heard of him. It’s not like he was Paolo (Banchero) or (Trevor) Keels or those guys that were highly ranked. And I’m watching their game against Kentucky, and I’m like ‘Who is this?’ Nobody could stay in front of him. When you see him in person, the size, the length, the stride, the explosiveness … I think he’s really good. I think he’s got a very, very high upside. Seems to be a kid who’s that hungry, that has a chip on his shoulder because he wasn’t entitled. I know a lot of people have compared him to Jaden Ivey – same high school and all that. …
I think he’ll continue to get better with the shot. It’s not broken. … Like most freshmen, he’s inconsistent with it, had some inconsistencies with it, just because of the speed and the work, everything like that. As he goes on this journey where it’s all basketball, you don’t have to worry about school, it’s not broken. I think he’ll become a consistent shooter. I don’t ever think he’ll be a ‘shooter,’ but I think he’ll shoot it well enough that you have to guard him, and that allows the explosiveness and athleticism to be even more effective. I love (Notre Dame) Coach (Mike) Brey. (But) they don’t play a lot of defense there. I do think with the length and the athleticism and the physical attributes he has, he could be a really good defender. You didn’t see it this year just because their thing was they were just going to outscore you.
My, TyTy
College Assistant Coach No. 5 (his team played Kentucky): Love him. Thought he was a guy that, if you want to get the full feel for who he can be in the NBA, look at the games he played without Sahvir Wheeler. Sahvir Wheeler is an excellent downhill point guard, but teams are going to make him shoot. When he’s on the court with TyTy, you’re not going to let TyTy or (Kellan) Grady get shots; you’re going to try to make the other guys shoot the ball. And TyTy played without the ball a lot when he played with Sahvir. But when he had the ball in his hands at Georgia, he had the assist record…
He’s got great size. When he plays the point, he plays with really good pace. I’m a believer. I think he’s going to be really good in the NBA. In my eyes (he’s a point guard). They ended up getting Sahvir Wheeler, which, a lot of times, when you’re somebody like Kentucky, you may not have the luxury to see what those freshmen can do, because you’re in a high-pressure position to win. But if they had to do it all over, and TyTy was where he was when they got there, who knows if they would have gone out and gotten a veteran point guard?
Western Conference Executive No. 4: Interesting one. Because in the last few years, guards at Kentucky have been much better pros than collegians. Tyrese Maxey. Shai (Gilgeous)-Alexander. Immanuel Quickley. B.J. Boston. Four guys in the last five, six years, you could say they were OK at Kentucky, but once they got into the league, they’ve had pretty good showings. I’m not sure TyTy is the same scorer as those three, but he may be a better playmaker in terms of being able to find guys than those other three. TyTy is in that same tier with Ochai and Max Christie. And if he has a great draft workout, he could get into that Daniels/Mathurin tier.
The next tier of guards
This group has first-round grades from a lot of teams. Some may go higher than the previous tier of guards. But most are more likely to go outside the lottery than inside it. They include Tennessee’s Kennedy Chandler, Michigan State’s Max Christie, Ignite’s Jaden Hardy, Toledo’s Ryan Rollins, Duke’s Trevor Keels and Arizona’s Dalen Terry.
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Cape (for) Kennedy
College Assistant Coach No. 6 (his team played Tennessee): I love Chandler. A little small, but his height doesn’t affect how he plays. Some of them, it affects them. The kid who went to Auburn (Sharife Cooper), his size affected him. Chandler’s very athletic. He’ll get up and defend you. When they switch, he’ll play you tough. He can score. And he wins. He does winning stuff. I know this may be blasphemy, but I think he’s a poor man’s Trae Young, to be honest. ‘Cause he can shoot it, but he wins. He passes it better than you think. He came to college as a scorer, but Rick (Barnes) made him pass the ball, which I think will help him. I think he’s going to be a really, really good backup point guard. I don’t think he’s going to be a starting point guard, but (he could be like) the kid who was at Duke, Tyus Jones and a couple of these small backup point guards, a little bit better than Quinn Cook.
To the Max
College Assistant Coach No. 2 (his team played Michigan State): Early in the year, all the mocks were crazy about him. I know he was frustrated he didn’t handle the ball more. Hoping to be more of a combo guard where he brought the ball up and facilitated more. Of course, that’s what all these kids want. (But) they used him coming off of pindowns in the corner, and a spot-up shooter a little bit. He’s got some good length. He has really improved his skills from high school. He’s much more competitive. He’s a better defender. They put him in situations where they needed to have him be one of the main guys. He hit the freshman wall a little bit. He had as many games where he had six points as well as 20 points. I think he needs another year of college personally, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that’s what’s going to happen. I know Max really got better defensively.
College Assistant Coach No. 3 (his team also played Michigan State): I’m a little shocked that he’s staying in (the draft). I would think another year would help his profile. I don’t see him being a first this year. Good skill set. More athletic than you think. Can shoot it pretty good. I’m not sure the system he plays in was the best for his shooting.
USA Basketball Member No. 1: The ultimate, how can I say it, in the front of the line. Always the first to show up in the gym. The first to ask the question in the team meetings. Always, literally, pushing himself as like ‘I’m going to be the voice; I’m going to be the leader,’ in a good way. He was always, like the team would be quiet, he would be the one to say something. He’s the extrovert when it comes to things like that. And he was a great teammate. And he played great. We had Max three times before we actually picked the team, in three camps, and he was that way from the first camp. Always, we go through drills at the first camp. The second camp, he was going to be first in line to make sure everybody knew, saw the way the drill was supposed to go. The guy who’d say ‘Hey, fellas, let’s make sure we pick up the trash in the cafeteria.’ He was that guy. For jerks, he was probably like ‘Why is this dude telling me what to do?’ But for the guys we wanted around, they would definitely feed off of that type of leadership.
He played great. But then his ceiling is lower than a guy like Jabari (Smith Jr.) or a guy like (A.J. Griffin). He was so comfortable quicker than everybody else, he played better faster. And he played so well, that was able to sustain him through everything. He didn’t always play great. The first couple of camps, you’d say he was one of the five best players. When we went to Brazil (for the FIBA Americas Under 16 Championships, in 2019), he was not a starter. Became a catch-and-shoot guy. He broke the USAB record for 3s in a game. We utilized his ability to make a jump shot. But he’s capable of doing so much more. He didn’t have to do that with us.
Western Conference Executive No. 4: How many guys from Michigan State, under (Tom) Izzo, have had the freedom to explore getting 18 to 22 every night? I can’t think of one. Jason Richardson had his days. Zach Randolph had his days. But recently? Names aren’t flying off my tongue. Shannon Brown? I just can’t think of many that have had the opportunity to get out of that system. But, this kid can shoot. The value that NBA teams put on shooting today is at a premium. This kid’s, what, a 19-year-old shooter? Is he going to step on an NBA floor next year? I doubt it. But I think he’ll have an impact (down the road).
Quite Hardy
G League Coach (his team played Ignite): His game is, he’s not going to be allowed to play his game in the NBA. He’s not going to be a guy that’s going to able to come in and just put up a bunch of shots. He’s a volume shooter. Not much of a playmaker right now. When we played them. … I thought to myself, ‘Jason Hart’s got his work cut out for him with this kid.’ I thought he was just out there trying to get shots up and try to impress the scouts and not really learn how to play. … He’s athletic. Well, let me say: he’s got a good build, but he’s not super athletic. The build tells me he’ll have the durability to stay on the court, be available. He scores enough that I think someone takes him in the late 20s, just because when you get to that part of the draft, you start gambling on talent — not necessarily what he is now. But can the talent take him to a level where he’s a serviceable two guard, backup two guard in the NBA?
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His style of play, his size and the lack of playmaking for others is going to be the big thing that people are going to question him on. What you hope, and I do think it happens (more often) than not, is as these guys get older, and they start to understand the landscape — and, frankly, as they get closer to being out of the league they get it. OK, I’ve got to start playing better defense — and, again, I question whether he really wants to. I’ve got to rebound better — does he really want to? Pass the ball — does he really want to? But as they closer to being out of the league, they find God and they start doing those things.
Rolling with Rollins
College Head Coach 4 (his team played Toledo): Can shoot the 3, moves without the ball, always solid, high basketball IQ. We double-teamed him. His number didn’t look the best against us, but we had to double team him to get the ball out of his hands. They run more sets, a ton of sets, and a lot of wide pins, pindowns, to get him moving. They run him around a little bit to get him going downhill. Hard to find a little bit. He moves well without the ball, and he’s an exceptional passer. That’s what made him hard to guard. He made the right decisions. That’s where the IQ comes in. He was able to put guys in good positions. Wouldn’t say he’s the best defender, but he’s decent. He’s not horrible. And he tries and competes at the defensive end.
Western Conference Executive No. 4: Let’s see how this plays out. I could see him be the climber, the sweetheart, after Chicago. And maybe I could be completely wrong. But Bones (Hyland) came out of there and shut it down after one day.
Pro-Keels
College Head Coach No. 1 (his team played Duke): One of the youngest guys in the league so that’s always a factor when you’re evaluating. We played them early. He was not shooting a high percentage. That was the surprising thing to me. I thought he was a little like Dennis Scott. Tough kid. Good player. I worry a little bit about his body, because he’s a little doughy looking. But he’s always been that way. And he’s young. He’s got baby fat, or whatever. I like him. He’s a good competitor. Great shooter.
College Head Coach No. 2 (his team also played Duke): Hard one to tell. He’s got a ready-made (pro) body, but he’s an average athlete. As far as a shot creator for himself, I think he’s going to struggle a little bit. Against these college guys, he’s putting them in the basket. He’s driving them in there, and bodying them up and making plays around the basket. I can’t see him doing that (in the NBA), because he’s an average athlete. And I don’t know how really good a shooter he is. I wasn’t, because I understand it, but I could have seen him coming back. He’s going to be borderline, in my opinion. I don’t know if he’s going to go first round or not. I do think he’s got a ready-made body. He can handle the ball. His athleticism and explosiveness would scare me a little bit.
College Head Coach No. 3 (his team also played Duke): He’s like a linebacker playing football. He shot the hell of it against us. I know for the season he had some inconsistencies. But he’s another guy that can play off of the ball. He can handle it, get you into stuff. I do think he’s got a good upside. He’s competitive. On both sides, he’s competitive. Very rarely do you see a freshman who’ll be competitive on the defensive end, but I thought he did a good job of that.
Talkin’ Terry
Eastern Conference Executive No. 1: My opinion, Dalen Terry would have been better off going back to school, personally. But somebody’s telling him he’s going to be a first-round pick. I don’t see that. I think he’s gotten better. I think he’s got a lot of upside. But offensively he’s still challenged a little bit. Having said that, he’s turned himself into a guy that can make a shot, but he isn’t a shooter. He’s more of a wing passer, so it almost fits in perfect with Mathurin.
One (or more) liners on late first/early second-rounders
Multiple guards, including Gonzaga’s Andrew Nembhard, Vanderbilt’s Scotty Pippen Jr. and Mississippi State’s Iverson Molinar, played well at the NBA Draft Combine late last month. They, and others like Duke’s Wendell Moore, Alabama’s JD Davison, Nebraska’s Bryce McGowens, Georgia Tech’s Michael Devoe and St. Joseph’s Jordan Hall, will almost certainly hear their names called on draft night. It’s just a question of when.
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Nembhard
Western Conference Executive No. 5: Gets drafted for sure. He’s a good player and would be surprised if he didn’t end up as a winning NBA player. (Malcolm) Brogdon would be the high-end comp. Andrew is good.
Western Conference Executive No. 3: He played well in the second game in Chicago. Does what he does. Crafty guy. If you want the crafty guy who can make some shots, you probably take Nembhard.
Pippen Jr.
Western Conference Executive No. 3: Pretty good. Tad selfish in trying to score. But did impress some people with his ability to make plays.
College Assistant Coach: Coming back, I thought he did a lot to help himself. He improved defensively, and he improved catching and shooting the ball. I still think he’s going to be a second-rounder, but you never know. I think he’s going to be double-digit years in the NBA. That’s my take on him. … I think he’s all basketball. I don’t think the NBA lifestyle is going to, that’s not going to excite him. You always worry about that with guys — how will they respond once they’re able to make some money? That’s not going to change his lifestyle.
Stack (Vanderbilt coach Jerry Stackhouse) coached him as hard as anyone. They’re going to be used to being coached when they come out of Vanderbilt. I just think it’s going to be an easy transition for him. He can play on the ball, and he can play off the ball, especially as he becomes a better catch and shoot guy… You watch some of his games this year — in Rupp Arena, in Auburn, some of those tough places to play, the Hawaiian tournament, there was no doubt he would go out there and play well. He can play when those lights come on.
Molinar
College Assistant Coach No. 5 (his team played Mississippi State): I liked him a lot. Excellent driver from the 45s. He didn’t do much against us because we’re a no-middle team. But he doesn’t shoot the ball well. I don’t think he’s a point. I think he has to begin to learn how to spray the ball. That’s why I think Pippen is ahead of him. Scottie can make passes to the opposite corners. When I’m watching those guys, it’s the same thing I said a few years ago about Kobi Simmons (the former Arizona guard). Kobi’s an excellent basketball player, but as a point guard, you’ve got to be able to spray the ball to the opposite side. Iverson doesn’t do that. He gets downhill from the 45s, gets into that paint, and he’s really dangerous. But he doesn’t do that. He’s playing in a good defensive system at Mississippi State, but I think he’s just OK defensively. He’s got to work on his shot. Because he’s not going to be able to get to the basket like that in the NBA.
Western Conference Executive No. 3: He’s the best athlete of that group. (But) Molinar can’t make shots at all. The shot’s broken. Apparently, he (injured) his shoulder and it’s really hurting his shot.
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Moore
College Head Coach No. 1 (his team played Duke): Jack of all trades, master of none. But a good player. Could he get himself as a defender, a guy that might be able to make an open shot, a rotational spot in the NBA? Yeah, I think so. He’s good, but I don’t know that he brings anything at a high level that’s an NBA skill.
College Head Coach No. 2 (his team also played Duke): Very explosive, athletic. Good defender. He improved himself by coming back. He’s got good size. A bit of an inconsistent shooter — and, maybe, sometimes, a little loose with the ball. His decision-making sometimes can be a little (questionable). He’s in the mix for a first-rounder, but I could see him slipping, too. … He’s got some good intangibles. Looks like he’s a winner, a team guy, kept them together. That wasn’t Trevor’s deal. He was a freshman. At the end of the year, truth be told, (Jeremy) Roach played better than maybe both of them, to be honest.
College Head Coach No. 3 (his team also played Duke): He came in with all this attention, right away. Before he played a game, he’s in the mock drafts, first-round pick and things like that. And then he went through some difficult times. His sophomore year, people didn’t guard him, and he lost so much confidence in himself. It’s a great story of maturation, taking the time, running your own race. And he just got better and better. I think because of that, those young guys had respect for him. And he’s such a good dude, too. I think he’s the kind of guy you can plug in at any of the guard spots. He reminds me of a Derrick White. He’s not a point, but he can play the point, he can bring the ball up and get you into your stuff. He doesn’t shoot it well enough to be a two, but he can make shots. He’s big enough where he can defend the three. He’s not a three, but he can defend the three. I just felt like he’s a jack of all trades who can do a little bit of everything. His body’s matured since he’s gotten there. He’s gotten bigger and stronger. I thought he got more athletic. And he’s gotten stronger and changed his body.
Davison
College Assistant Coach No. 6 (his team played Alabama): I think he’s gonna struggle. It’s gonna take him a while. You have to take him because of his ability. You can go under ball screens in college, but you’re going to struggle in the NBA. I don’t see a lot of guys that can’t shoot (in the NBA). (Tyrese) Maxey, coming out of college, I thought he was ready. He’s not close to Maxey, to me. But his athleticism is next level. A lot of people would say Russell Westbrook, but Russell Westbrook was dominant in college. That’s going too far, now. But, I think he has elite athleticism. His basketball IQ is not that high. You put him on the right team, eventually, he can help. He’s not (Moses) Moody, he’s not Maxey, he’s not Herb Jones. He’s not Cam (Reddish). Cam was a flat-out scorer. To me, his only NBA skill is athleticism.
College Assistant Coach No. 5 (his team also played Alabama): Athletically, he can just do things. I think his body and athleticism, I think he can be in the mold of a Marcus Smart even though he’s not there defensively yet. That hasn’t been what he’s all about and tried to be. But physically, and athletically, he can do a lot of things that other guys can’t do. He can become a better shooter. He’ll never be as good as the ones that can really shoot the basketball, but he’s an excellent driver and finisher. You could see him playing in Dallas with Luka, or in L.A. with LeBron. He can play with teams where he can guard the point guard and doesn’t have to play exclusively point, because he’s got a way to go to be a true point guard. You know how they started doing in football, just picking guys for running back or quarterback who are just athletes? He’s such a superior athlete, he’s going to make it. It’s just a matter of what role he ends up being. But he’s going to make it. Whether he morphs into a point guard, or becomes a defensive guy. You’ll find something. Because he’s not going to be outmatched out there.
McGowens
Western Conference Executive No. 4: I would put him in that same box as Johnny Davis as not playing with anybody, and he had to do a lot of stuff on his own. And Fred (Hoiberg) was very restrictive most of the year with allowing him to do his thing. His getting to the free-throw line led the Big Ten and it may have led the NCAA. He has talent and he has game. Physically, he’s going to have to get stronger, which all of them do, but right now, physically, he’s behind the eight-ball some. A good athlete. And he can go get it. … If he was at North Carolina, Duke, Kansas, I think he would be getting a little more love. But because of how poor Nebraska was this year, he could be getting docked a few points.
College Assistant Coach No. 2 (his team played Nebraska): Super, super athletic. Great in the open floor. Probably needs to get a little more consistent with his shooting. But NBA skill set, elite athleticism. Body needs to fill out more. But he has everything you would want in a wing player. Explosive first step, got a good feel for the game. From the games I’ve seen, Fred really gave him a lot of freedom, let him play, ran a lot of stuff for him. Things changed once his brother (Trey) came back, because his brother got hurt. He was a wing player. Probably slowed a little bit. They had a ball-dominant point guard that slowed him a little. Probably needs to get better defensively, but he has the tools. He’s long and athletic. It’s so hard for those guys this year, being on a bad team, being a young guy. I don’t know how good their veteran leadership was. But he does have the ability, and he does compete.
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Devoe
College Head Coach 2 (his team played Georgia Tech): I liked him as a junior. He didn’t have a great senior year. He can score (though). I see him as a two-way guy, second-round guy. Good personality, good size, had some moments early in the year. It gets hard when you’re losing, and everybody starts game planning for your ass. … I don’t think he’s a first-rounder. I think as the year went along, the year got rough for him. … The year before, he had (Jose) Alvarado and they had the big kid, Moses Wright. So they had some other options. When he became the option, it got a little tougher for him.
Second round (or later) roundtable (in alphabetical order)
James Akinjo, Baylor
Eastern Conference Executive No. 3: We don’t (have him drafted), but that’s not to say someone couldn’t take him late in the second and make him a two-way. Maybe the G League as a point guard if they think he has some upside. But we don’t have him in the top 60. Akinjo is very intense, very competitive, has very good athleticism at point guard. But he plays so fast that sometimes he overlooks his teammates. And decision-making can be questionable when he’s going that quick.
College Assistant Coach No. 3 (his team played Baylor): Inconsistent, especially with his jumper. He’s got really good ball skills, so he can get his shot. Really good ball skills with 1-2 crossovers, and his pullup is good. But he’s small. He’s small. Obviously, he plays with a lot of confidence, but if you look at the league and guys his size … they probably list him at 6-1. He’s probably 5-11. He didn’t show the range on 3s on a consistent basis. More a pullup type game than catch and shoot or shooting from 3. He’s not a (Fred) VanVleet, with that type of range. He’s probably got better ball skills, quick off the dribble, than VanVleet. But I don’t know if he has that kind of range like a VanVleet. He’s good in transition. He can finish at the basket. Just okay defensively. The things that made them good defensively were their bigs. Their bigs were able to switch ball screens. There was nobody on that team like (Davion) Mitchell that could just lock down a player one on one.
Hugo Besson, New Zealand Breakers
Western Conference Executive No. 6: With the European kids that have made it, that have really made it and stuck with it, I think they have a certain thing in common mentally, instead of physically. And when I saw Hugo play, compared to the kid (projected first-round pick Ousmane) Dieng that he played with … they really loved the Dieng kid, and they weren’t very fond of Hugo. I think he had a little bit of stubbornness to learning the language. And when you watch him, he kind of carries himself with a little bit of an attitude. Australia’s kind of a league with a bunch of older guys, and then they have a couple of young guys on each team. It’s a league where that shows up pretty easily. To me, talent-wise, he would have a shot. But I wouldn’t bet money on him, just ’cause — now, this can always change. He’s not talented enough to think he’s a prime-time player. So … I feel like he’s one of these kids that’s going to bounce around a little bit, probably be disappointed with his playing time. When he does get an opportunity, he may not do enough little things to endear himself to his staff or his teammates. Now, he’s young, so that could change.
Keon Ellis, Alabama
College Assistant Coach No. 4 (his team played Alabama): I think he’s just a good, solid guard. He has to get into a situation, he’s going to probably going to have to work his way through the minor leagues. There’s a ton of guys like him in the minor leagues. What he does in that type of situation will determine if he becomes an NBA player. But he’s not a point guard. He’s a thin two-guard.
Jean Montero, Overtime Elite
Western Conference Executive No. 6: Size in our league is important. You can’t just be pretty good when you are small. You have to be better to negate that. I think he could be a backup in the league, but it may take a long road to get there.
Eastern Conference Executive No. 4: Like his feel at the point guard position. Undersized, which is a concern. I’ve read late first for him…(but) I would assume second round.
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Gabriele Procida, Fortitudo Bologna
Western Conference Executive No. 6: I think Procida has a chance, depending on where (he’s drafted). You know how it goes with stash picks; it’s always who’s looking for the stash. I can’t guarantee a number. But Procida’s big – he’s like 6-6, 6-7, and he can really shoot, and he’s a pretty good athlete in space … Procida, I think he can run the floor, have him line up for a 3, and then he’s big enough to where he can probably guard a little bit.
College Head Coach No. 3 (his team played Wake Forest): He was one of the most interesting players for me. You look at his career, and the most he had averaged was seven points, and all of a sudden he comes and is arguably the best player in our league. He’s an older, strong, physical guard, really physical. Has a chip on his shoulder. I was surprised when we played them, I felt like he has an incredible feel for the game. And that kind of surprised me a little bit when you look at somebody with physicality at the guard position. I thought he would be just kind of a bully guard, a guy who’s 23, 24 years old, playing against college guys. But he has a good feel for the game. He shoots it well enough. I’m not saying he’s a good shooter, but he makes shots. He shoots a good percentage. He’s a really good passer, his feel. He can really defend – when he wants to. The thing about him was, I just felt at times, he could be lazy. It was almost like it was so easy, OK, I’m gonna try this pass. He could get careless with the ball. But when he really wanted to defend, I thought he was as good a perimeter defender as there is in the league. And with his physicality, he can guard anyone, 1 through 4. He loved the big moments. He showed up in every big moment.
(Photo of Jaden Ivey: Jeffrey Phelps / AP; Photo of TyTy Washington: Jeff Moreland/ Icon Sportswire via AP Images; Illustration: Wes McCabe / The Athletic)
