B/R NHL Staff 2022 Stanley Cup Final Predictions: Avalanche vs. Lightning

Bleacher Report NHL StaffFeatured ColumnistJune 14, 2022

B/R NHL Staff 2022 Stanley Cup Final Predictions: Avalanche vs. Lightning

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    After a grueling postseason featuring no shortage of drama, we're down to the best of the best.

    It's the two-time defending champions vs. the team ready to knock them off their throne.

    The Tampa Bay Lightning have been here before—two Stanley Cups in a row and looking for the three-peat. In the opposite corner is the Colorado Avalanche, a team that's been on the cusp and seemingly ready to take the next step to capture championship glory.

    It's a series filled with no shortage of star power, featuring offensive dynamos such as Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov, along with defensive stalwarts such as Cale Makar and Victor Hedman.

    Will the Lightning be able to cap off their dynasty run with a third Cup? Or will the Avalanche derail those plans?

    The B/R NHL Staff got together and provided their picks for the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.

Why the Cup Is Headed to Denver from Tampa

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    The Lightning have precisely nothing to prove.

    Two straight Stanley Cups yielded plenty of street cred before these playoffs began, but coach Jon Cooper and Co. have added a rally from down 3-2 in a series against the Maple Leafs, a sweep of the Presidents' Trophy-winning Panthers and another comeback from down 2-0 against the Rangers.

    So no one in the Tampa Bay locker room needs to state a case as to why it should be favored when it comes to this championship series against the Avalanche. The Lightning are terrifically skilled, have undisputed mettle and a stubborn streak that won't allow them to surrender.

    They would make a worthy three-time champion, and they certainly deserve a chance to become the first team to pull that off since the New York Islanders of the early 1980s.

    But as cool as it'd be, it's not going to happen.

    It's not because they're not good, but rather because Colorado is simply better.

    While it's true the Avalanche were in with an overmatched foe in Edmonton in the Western Conference Finals, it doesn't diminish how they came at the Oilers in waves and often made it look as if they had seven or eight skaters on the ice compared to the opponent's five.

    They're fast, skilled and deep.

    And similar to the Lightning after their 2019 embarrassment against Columbus, they're hungry.

    It won't be as one-sided as the WCF sweep of Connor McDavid and the Oilers—thanks in no small measure to Tampa Bay superstar goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy—but it'll be a Rocky Mountain High for Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Co. when they finally get over the hump.

    Prediction: Avalanche in 6

           

    Lyle Fitzsimmons

The Champs Will Remain the Champs

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    Two of the NHL's best will be facing off in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final.

    The Lightning hope to become the first team to win three straight Cups since the 1982 New York Islanders. The Avalanche, meanwhile, are a hungry young team in search of the franchise's first Cup since 2001. Colorado won the Presidents' Trophy in 2020-21 and finished second overall in this season's standings.

    Experience, leadership and a solid team defense enabled the Lightning to eliminate the Toronto Maple Leafs, Florida Panthers and New York Rangers to reach this point. Their talented core of Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy rose to the occasion throughout this postseason, especially against the Rangers in overcoming a 2-0 series deficit in the Eastern Conference Finals.

    With a potent, swift-skating offense led by stars such as Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen, the Avalanche overpowered the Nashville Predators, St. Louis Blues and Edmonton Oilers en route to their Stanley Cup appearance. Colorado's depth proved invaluable in coping with the absence of starting goalie Darcy Kuemper and second-line center Nazem Kadri to injuries.

    The Lightning's deep roster, meanwhile, helped them adjust to the absence of core center Brayden Point, who suffered a lower-body injury in Game 7 of the first round. He's expected to be back for the Stanley Cup Final, as is Kuemper for the Avs. Kadri could also make his return at some point in this series.

    Goaltending could make a difference in this series. The Lightning have the clear advantage with the world-class Vasilevskiy, who has established himself among the best clutch netminders in the game.

    This should be an entertaining series, but the Lightning will prevail, establishing themselves as the first true dynasty of the NHL's salary-cap era.

    Prediction: Lightning in 6.

           

    - Lyle Richardson 

The Series We All Wanted Will Have a Familiar Ending with a Bolts Win

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    No offense to the New York Rangers, but this is the matchup I've wanted to see for a couple of years. The Avalanche came into the season wanting to prove that they were bona fide contenders, and they did exactly that. But to get to the next level, they have to take down arguably the best team of the salary-cap era, the Tampa Bay Lightning.

    This series will feature two of the deepest teams in the league, two of the best defensemen in the world in Cale Makar and Victor Hedman and two elite centers in Nathan MacKinnon and (hopefully) Brayden Point. It's everything you could ask for in a Stanley Cup Final.

    But the one thing the Avs don't have is a world-class netminder like Andrei Vasilevskiy. Colorado used Darcy Kuemper and Pavel Francouz to get through three rounds of the playoffs and may have some controversy when it comes to choosing a goalie to start Game 1.

    Kuemper is ready to return, but Francouz was the goalie who got the Avs through the series against the Oilers. He was shaky at times, especially in Game 4 in which he allowed five goals. Colorado needed a wild comeback to complete the sweep, and Edmonton goalie Mike Smith was pretty bad in that series, so does Colorado turn to the goaltender they acquired last summer to get them to the Cup Final?

    Meanwhile, Vasilevskiy outdueled his Russian countrymate and Hart and Vezina Trophy finalist Igor Shesterkin to reach a third straight Stanley Cup Final. He certainly had more help in front of him than Shesterkin had, but an elite goaltender can be the edge in a tight series.

    This Lightning team knows how to adjust to shut down just about anyone, and that starts with coach Jon Cooper's ability to recognize when and what changes need to be made. He broke up the top two lines and put Anthony Cirelli on a checking line to shut down Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider, and it worked. He put Steven Stamkos in the middle of Ondrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov, and the Rangers couldn't contain them.

    This Colorado team has a chance to be historically good, but the Lightning have a chance to make history with their third straight Stanley Cup.

    Prediction: Lightning in 6

              

    - Abbey Mastracco

Seven-Game Thriller Ends with the Avs Winning the Cup

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    The reality of the Stanley Cup playoffs is that the best team doesn't always prevail. The past couple of seasons have featured a, shall we say, surprising Stanley Cup finalists.

    This is why we're extremely fortunate to have this matchup between the Lightning and Avalanche. In different ways, each is the best team possible candidate to represent its respective conference.

    Colorado cruised to the Final, earning 12 wins in 14 games combined against the Predators, Blues, and Oilers. This team is as flawless as possible in the salary-cap era. Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen offer the star power, and the depth down the roster is substantial.

    The Avs faced few hardships on their way to the Final, but now they have their most difficult test yet and not solely because of the opponent. Top-four defenseman Samuel Girard is out for the playoffs with a broken sternum, while All-Star center Nazem Kadri and starting goaltender Darcy Kuemper are also dealing with injuries.

    Fortunately for Colorado, Kuemper seems ready to play, and Kadri at least has a chance to return at some point during the SCF. Either way, the Avalanche have the depth to overcome the injuries.

    Meanwhile, this is, talent-wise, the worst team the Lightning have put forth in the last three seasons. The realities of the salary cap hit them heavily in the offseason, and deadline acquisition Brandon Hagel has yet to find his game.

    But while they may be behind Colorado in terms of talent, they are far more battle-tested, beating three great teams in the Maple Leafs, Panthers, and Rangers. Although team depth isn't nearly as good as last season, general manager Julien BriseBois did a remarkable job finding frugal replacements in Corey Perry and Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, among others.

    This series may get decided by who gets healthy the quickest. Kuemper and Kadri could be the difference for the Avalanche. For Tampa Bay, center Brayden Point will likely return, whether that's in Game 1 or a potential Game 7. Home ice goes to Colorado, and, for that reason, so may the series.

    Prediction: Avalanche in 7

    - Adam Herman

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