AP college football rankings: Making sense of the Top 25 after a wild Week 2

PROVO, UT- SEPTEMBER 10:  Members of of the Brigham Young Cougars take the field before their game agaisnt the Baylor Bears September 10, 2022 at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo, Utah. (Photo by Chris Gardner/Getty Images)
By Matt Brown
Sep 11, 2022

After a chaotic college football Saturday that featured losses by three top-10 teams, including two to unranked opponents, there are a lot of changes in this week’s AP Top 25 — including a new team on top.

Who should be ranked where? Why did I vote the way I did on my ballot? Let’s dig into the poll.

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1. The season began with Alabama, Georgia and Ohio State, in some order, presumed to be in a tier well above the rest of the pack. Alabama’s close escape against Texas and Ohio State’s so-so showing against a Notre Dame team that subsequently lost to Marshall raises doubts about that theory, but nobody else has done enough yet to totally wipe away the perception. I view poll voting on a sliding scale: Preseason is 100 percent based on perception. After Week 2, it still might be 75 percent or more, especially for teams that haven’t played quality opponents yet. And then, hopefully, preseason perceptions are filtered out entirely by the time we get to mid-October or so and teams are actually building bodies of work.

I elevated Georgia to No. 1 after its 49-3 drubbing of Oregon, and more than enough voters joined me this week to push the defending national champions back to the top of the poll — 53 of 63, in fact. Alabama and Ohio State remain the clear consensus choices to round out the top three.

2. Michigan is sort of a No. 4 team by default that has lived up to preseason billing but hasn’t played an opponent with a pulse yet. That won’t change this week, as its forgettable nonconference slate continues against UConn. Rounding out the top five on my ballot is … USC, which is ranked seventh in the poll. It’s not that beating Stanford is worth getting excited about like it was 5-10 years ago, but in a season in which there appears to be a lot of parity through most of the rankings, the Trojans actually have something to hang your hat on thanks to Lincoln Riley, Caleb Williams, Jordan Addison and an explosive, star-studded offense.

Will the transfer-heavy lineup stumble? Probably at some point, and the defense still faces plenty of questions. But how many teams can really keep up with the talent the Trojans have amassed on offense? The next two games against feisty Fresno State and Oregon State teams will be worth watching.

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The poll has Clemson fifth. As I wrote last week, I need to see Clemson’s offense prove itself against a decent team before I buy into the Tigers as a top-five team again — though it’s possible you could argue that Clemson’s offense and USC’s defense are relatively equal, and vice versa.

3. Before we get to questionable things I’ve done with my ballot, I’ll take a moment to shout out BYU, a team I ranked higher than anyone else in the preseason (13th). The Cougars played Saturday night without top receivers Puka Nacua and Gunner Romney, and yet they notched their sixth all-time win against a team ranked in the AP top 10 by beating No. 9 Baylor 26-20 in overtime.

BYU overachieved last year by finishing 10-3 despite losing most of its production from an 11-1 team in 2020. Now, it’s one of the most experienced teams in the country, and the defense stepped up to hold Baylor at 289 yards on 80 plays. With a quality win, I bumped BYU up to sixth on my ballot — again, not many teams truly deserve spots in that range yet — while the consensus has it up nine spots to 12th. Next up: The Cougars visit a No. 25 Oregon team that is a wild card after its Week 1 debacle against Georgia.

Kentucky has back-to-back wins vs. Florida for the first time since 1976-77. (Kim Klement / USA Today)

4. I won’t hide from it: Last week, I made the curious decision to elevate Florida all the way to No. 5, higher than anyone else, after its quality win against Utah, which featured an impressive performance from quarterback Anthony Richardson. I described my thought process in detail, saying there was a lot of volatility in the rankings and Florida showed that, when Richardson is at his best, it can hang with almost anyone. Unfortunately for the Gators, Richardson still has a massive gap between his floor and his ceiling, and Kentucky made life miserable for him to put the lower floor on display.

I was a bit skeptical of Kentucky entering the season, but I’ll give the Wildcats their due now for winning in a tough road environment and stifling Richardson. Even if Kentucky’s performance on offense left plenty to be desired, I ranked the Wildcats eighth this week after they slammed the door on Florida with a 10-point win. The Wildcats come in at No. 9 in the poll, their first AP top-10 appearance since 2007, when they spent two weeks in the top 10.

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I dropped Florida to a more reasonable 18th, still one spot ahead of Utah. A lot of voters are already ignoring the head-to-head result, as the Gators are also 18th in the poll but the Utes are 14th. I moved Utah down with Florida until it’s proven that the head-to-head shouldn’t be the determining factor.

5. Arkansas has put together a stellar start to the season, with a pair of home wins against Cincinnati and South Carolina. The Razorbacks dominated the Gamecocks in the trenches — outrushing them 295 to 40 — and got another efficient outing from QB KJ Jefferson. Bobby Petrino and Missouri State come to town this week, and then things get difficult: Texas A&M (in Arlington), Alabama, at Mississippi State and at BYU over a four-week stretch in which the Razorbacks’ top-10 ranking will be repeatedly put to the test. I have them seventh, a few spots higher than their No. 10 ranking.

6. It’s a shame that neither Marshall nor Appalachian State made it into the poll this week. I voted for both, placing the Thundering Herd 21st after they won at Notre Dame (their second all-time top-10 win after 2003 against Kansas State) and the Mountaineers 25th after they won at Texas A&M (their second all-time top-10 win after 2007 against Michigan). It’s early in the season, and both beat what are supposed to be teams with far superior talent, on the road. They deserve to be rewarded, even if the Irish and Aggies aren’t as good as expected.

I did hesitate to put App State in over North Carolina, as I typically pay close attention to head-to-head results, but App State did score 40 points in the fourth quarter alone against the Tar Heels, and while the Mountaineers won at Texas A&M, UNC struggled with Georgia State. App State should be rewarded for going to Kyle Field and winning.

Give credit to the Sun Belt, the first non-power conference to record multiple wins against AP top-10 foes on the same weekend since the MAC did it on Sept. 20, 2003. On that day, then-MAC member Marshall beat No. 6 Kansas State and Toledo beat No. 9 Pitt 35-31 (and the conference added a third ranked win when NIU beat No. 21 Alabama).

Marshall knocked Notre Dame from the top 10 to unranked. (Matt Cashore / USA Today)

7. I’m not sure why any of my fellow voters have Notre Dame and Texas A&M on their ballot. The Irish reasonably deserved a mulligan after losing by only 11 at Ohio State in Week 1, but now they’re 0-2 after losing at home to a Marshall team that doesn’t have nearly the same talent/depth. Notre Dame did fall out of the rankings, though it still received 23 points. Texas A&M hangs onto a spot at No. 24 after running 38 plays for 186 yards and scoring one offensive touchdown against a team that it too has a big talent advantage against. The Aggies finished unranked last year, and their passing game has glaring problems. Until proven otherwise, the preseason hype should be forgotten.

Per College Poll Archive, Texas A&M’s fall from sixth to 24th actually ties the largest single-week drop within the poll. Cal did the same in 2009.

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8. Two teams I was closely monitoring coming into the season were Kansas State and Oregon State, both of which I was intrigued by as sleepers. Neither made this week’s Top 25, but I vaulted the Wildcats in at No. 17 on my ballot after they dominated Missouri with Deuce Vaughn and their running game, and I ranked the Beavers 24th after Jonathan Smith’s bold call to go for the win at the end of regulation against a good Fresno State team. Both the Big 12 and the Pac-12 are winnable this year, and don’t be surprised if one of these teams makes a run.

Kansas State is an interesting spot, as it is the only Power 5 team that has not had multiple coaches lead it to AP-ranked finishes. Chris Klieman is trying to join Bill Snyder, who led the Wildcats to all 13 of their ranked seasons.

9. Texas moved into the rankings after losing, which is a rare occurrence, though not unprecedented. Past examples include:

  • Missouri jumped in at No. 25 in 1997 after losing on the infamous Flea Kicker against No. 1 Nebraska.
  • Georgia lost 30-27 at No. 8 Tennessee early in 1995 and moved in at No. 23.
  • In 1989, Michigan State beat Miami (OH), then lost 21-13 at No. 1 Notre Dame and 26-20 to No. 2 Miami. Those two close losses to the top two teams vaulted the Spartans in at No. 24.
  • In 1986, Notre Dame lost 24-23 to No. 3 Michigan in its opener and nabbed the final spot in the poll, which ranked 20 teams at the time.

I understand why enough voters ranked the Longhorns after they came so close to taking down Alabama, but I couldn’t quite do it myself. Maybe I still have flashbacks to Charlie Weis getting a massive contract extension shortly after a close loss to USC. The point being: I’ve been duped by Texas before and need to see it prove itself with actual wins, even if it did play like a Top 25 team for much of Saturday. The injury to Quinn Ewers also makes me hesitant.

10. The SEC still has eight ranked teams, including each of the top two and four of the top 10. Its dominance of the poll will inevitably abate a bit as teams beat each other within the conference, but I’m largely in line with the panel — at least on everyone but Texas A&M. Tennessee moved up nine spots after its win against Pitt, and I moved the Vols up 12 spots to No. 12. Again, everything is volatile now, and Tennessee will have to prove itself further starting Sept. 24 against Florida.

Beyond the SEC, the ACC has five ranked teams and the Big Ten and Big 12 have four each. I joined others in voting for Wake Forest this week with Sam Hartman back. All four ranked Big Ten teams are in the East after Penn State moved in and Wisconsin fell out.

The Pac-12 has three ranked teams, and independent BYU is ranked. There are zero Group of 5 teams ranked this week thanks to Houston’s loss to Texas Tech and the Sun Belt snubs.


Ranked matchups in Week 3: No. 12 BYU at No. 25 Oregon and No. 13 Miami at No. 24 Texas A&M

New poll arrivals: Kentucky (8), Kansas State (17), Marshall (21), Oregon State (23), Wake Forest (24) and Appalachian State (25) are new to my ballot. Texas (21), Penn State (22) and Oregon (25) are new to the AP Top 25.

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Falling out: Notre Dame (7), Texas A&M (8), UCF (21), Pitt (22), Wisconsin (23) and Cincinnati (25) fell off my ballot. Notre Dame (8), Wisconsin (19) and Houston (25) fell out of the AP Top 25.

Who I like more than the rest of the panel (difference of three-plus spots): Arkansas (No. 7 on my ballot vs. No. 10 in the poll), BYU (No. 6 vs. No. 12), Miami (No. 10 vs. No. 13), Tennessee (No. 12 vs. No. 15), Penn State (No. 14 vs. No. 22), Kansas State (No. 17 vs. unranked), Marshall (No. 21 vs. unranked), Oregon State (No. 23 vs. unranked), Appalachian State (No. 25 vs. unranked)

Who I like less: Clemson (No. 11 vs. No. 5), Oklahoma (No. 9 vs. No. 6), Oklahoma State (No. 13 vs. No. 8), Michigan State (No. 15 vs. No. 11), Utah (No. 19 vs. No. 14), Baylor (No. 20 vs. No. 17), Wake Forest (No. 24 vs. No. 19), Texas (unranked vs. No. 21), Pitt (unranked vs. No. 23), Texas A&M (unranked vs. No. 24), Oregon (unranked vs. No. 25)

(Top photo: Chris Gardner / Getty Images)

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Matt Brown

Matt Brown is a deputy managing editor for The Athletic College Football. He previously spent six years as an editor and the lead national college football and basketball writer for Sports on Earth. Follow Matt on Twitter @MattBrownCFB