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NFL betting: A way-too-early look at the playoff picture based on the odds

pete truszkowski
·7 min read
18

Five weeks of the NFL season are in the books. It's certainly too early to go too in depth analyzing the playoff picture, especially with so many 3-2 or 2-3 teams scattered across the league. However, BetMGM does currently have odds posted for each team to make the playoffs. They change every week. Teams like the Denver Broncos have seen their odds shift tremendously in recent weeks. After Week 5, what do the betting odds tell us about which teams are likely to make the playoffs?

AFC race

Entering the season, most viewed the AFC as the more wide-open of the two conferences. While some teams have underperformed expectations, there are still a lot of teams in the mix. The Bills and Chiefs have four wins on the season. The Texans, Steelers and Raiders have just one win. However, the 11 other teams in the conference have either two or three wins. What do oddsmakers think of what we've seen so far, and how are they projecting the rest of the season?

The playoff locks

Buffalo (-3000 to make the playoffs, 96.8% chance): Not much needs to be said about the Buffalo Bills. They're the Super Bowl favorites.

Kansas City (-1000 to make playoffs, 90.9% chance): A lot of people thought this would be the year the Kansas City Chiefs had significant competition in their division, but they're currently -250 favorites to win the AFC West.

Looking good

Baltimore (-350 to make playoffs, 77.8% chance): Off to a 3-2 start, the Ravens are -200 favorites to win the AFC North. Lamar Jackson is +550 to win NFL MVP, the third-best odds behind Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes.

LA Chargers (-200 to make playoffs, 66.7% chance): Despite some key injuries and questionable coaching decisions, the Chargers are off to a 3-2 start.

On the bubble

Miami (-175 to make playoffs, 63.6% chance): The Dolphins were -450 favorites to make the playoffs at this time last year. They've lost back to back games, and are 3.5-point underdogs this weekend as they plan to start Skylar Thompson at quarterback.

Indianapolis (-125 to make playoffs, 55.6% chance): The Colts had a massive win last Thursday to keep their season on the tracks. Now, they find themselves as slight betting favorites to win the AFC South at +180.

Tennessee (-105 to make playoffs, 51.2% chance): It was an ugly start for the Titans, but they've righted the ship, winning three straight games. They have a very good chance to win their division, and even if they don't, the wild card isn't out of the question.

Cincinnati (+100 to make playoffs, 50% chance): The reigning AFC champions are off to a 2-3 start and oddsmakers think it's a coin flip as to whether they'll make the playoffs.

Jacksonville (+155 to make playoffs, 39.2% chance): There was some excitement surrounding Jacksonville a few weeks ago, but back-to-back losses and some poor play from Trevor Lawrence put a damper on that. The division is very winnable though, and that's their most likely path.

CINCINNATI, OH - SEPTEMBER 29: Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow (9) looks at the scoreboard during the game against the Miami Dolphins and the Cincinnati Bengals on September 29, 2022, at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, OH. (Photo by Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Joe Burrow and the Bengals are a coin flip to make the NFL playoffs. (Ian Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Outside looking in

Cleveland (+225 to make playoffs, 30.8% chance): The Browns have lost to the Jets and Falcons. They had a chance to beat the Chargers, but Jacoby Brissett threw a late pick and Cade York missed a field goal. Deshaun Watson is still a few weeks away.

Denver (+275 to make playoffs, 26.7% chance): Will getting his shoulder surgically repaired help fix Russell Wilson? It can't get much worse for Wilson, Nathaniel Hackett and company in Denver.

New England (+275 to make playoffs, 26.7% chance): The Patriots are 2-3 and staying afloat, but the offense is a concern, especially with Mac Jones and Damien Harris now injured.

Las Vegas (+325 to make playoffs, 23.5% chance): The Raiders had a chance to change the trajectory of their season with a massive upset over the Chiefs on Monday night. This is a talented team, but 1-4 will be hard to overcome.

NY Jets (+475 to make playoffs, 17.4% chance): The Jets are 3-2 which is extremely encouraging for their fans as a bevy of young players have shown the ability to win games. Oddsmakers don't like their chances of making the playoffs, but they look like they can be a competitive, pesky bunch this season.

The long shots

Pittsburgh (16-to-1 to make playoffs, 5.9% chance): We're well on our way to Mike Tomlin's first losing season.

Houston (18-to-1 to make playoffs, 5.3% chance): Davis Mills isn't it, but Dameon Pierce has shown some exciting flashes.

NFC race

In the NFC, the Eagles are 5-0 and three other teams are 4-1. Only three teams have just one win. Overall, nine teams have either two or three wins. Oddsmakers seem to think there's a clear haves and have-nots situation in the NFC.

The playoff locks

Philadelphia (-5000 to make playoffs, 98% chance): The Eagles are the lone undefeated team remaining in football.

Tampa Bay (-900 to make playoffs, 90% chance): The Buccaneers are just 3-2, but the NFC South offers very little competition.

Looking good

Minnesota (-600 to make playoffs, 85.7% chance): This feels a little high for the Vikings, but there's no denying they are 4-1 and have a head-to-head win against the biggest competition in their division.

Dallas (-450 to make playoffs, 81.8% chance): The Cowboys are 4-0 with Cooper Rush under center. Dak Prescott should return in the coming weeks, which in theory will unlock a higher ceiling for their offense.

San Francisco (-300 to make playoffs, 75% chance): The San Francisco 49ers are 3-2 despite dealing with a collection of injuries. They're now -165 favorites to win the NFC West.

Green Bay (-275 to make playoffs, 73.3% chance): There's definitely a benefit of the doubt being given to Green Bay here at this price. They've been far from impressive to open the season.

On the bubble

LA Rams (-135 to make playoffs, 57.5% chance): The Rams are just 2-3 to open the season and they look like a mess along the offensive line. They also have the toughest remaining schedule in football. Can the defending champions really miss the playoffs?

NY Giants (+110 to make playoffs, 47.6% chance): A 4-1 start translates to a playoff spot way more than 47.6% of the time, but these odds show that oddsmakers still aren't sold on this Giants team.

New Orleans (+200 to make playoffs, 33.3% chance): At 2-3, the Saints are off to a disappointing start. They've handed Carolina their only win and survived nail-biters against Atlanta and Seattle. The talent is there and Jameis Winston should return eventually, though I'm not sure how much better he is than Andy Dalton.

Outside looking in

Arizona (+300 to make playoffs, 25% chance): The Cardinals are 2-3, but things just feel off between Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury. Maybe the return of DeAndre Hopkins in Week 7 will help things.

Atlanta (+600 to make playoffs, 14.3% chance): The Falcons are the only team that's undefeated against the spread and they've picked up two wins despite being an underdog in all five of their games.

Washington (+800 to make playoffs, 11.1% chance): If Carson Wentz punches it in on the goal line instead of throwing an interception at the end of their Week 5 game, the Commanders' outlook would be much different.

The long shots

Chicago (10-to-1 to make playoffs, 9.1% chance): They've been competitive, but there's serious questions about the passing offense.

Detroit (10-to-1 to make playoffs, 9.1% chance): Last week excluded, their offense has been dynamite. Their defense is a major issue though.

Seattle (10-to-1 to make playoffs, 9.1% chance): Geno Smith has outplayed Russell Wilson, just like we all expected. Despite that, the Seahawks are just 2-3.