Ranking Aaron Judge's Top 10 Landing Spots Ahead of MLB Free Agency

Let the Aaron Judge sweepstakes begin!

With the New York Yankees eliminated from the postseason and 27 other teams also turning their attention to the upcoming offseason, the rumor mill is in full swing as we wait on the start of the 2022 World Series.

After a record-setting season, Judge is one of the headliners of a 2022-23 free-agent class that includes Trea Turner and opt-out candidates Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodón.

The focus here will be on Judge and which teams can be considered realistic suitors to secure his services this offseason.

After a 62-homer, 131-RBI, 10.6-WAR season that will likely end in AL MVP honors, he is the type of player who can completely transform a franchise.

Ahead are his 10 most likely landing spots, based on spending power, roster need and ability to contend in 2023 and beyond. Let's start with a closer look at his potential asking price.

It's not often a team is fully transparent in contract negotiations, but the New York Yankees looped in the media on the details of the extension talks with Judge that came up short just before Opening Day.

The team's final offer was a seven-year, $213.5 million extension, which would have been tacked onto his 2022 arbitration salary and run through the 2029 season.

A $30.5 million average annual value would have ranked 15th in the majors during the 2022 season, checking in behind the recent long-term deals signed by Francisco Lindor ($34.1M) and Corey Seager ($33M) within the past year.

After making a run at the Triple Crown, Judge could aim to surpass Mike Trout ($37.1M) for the highest annual value among all position players, or shoot for an even larger figure on a short-term deal like we saw with Carlos Correa ($35.1M) last winter.

If he does sign a long-term deal, expect Judge to become the 10th player in MLB history to ink a $300 million contract.

The Minnesota Twins showed a willingness to spend and did so in a creative way last offseason when they signed Carlos Correa to a three-year, $105.3 million deal that essentially amounted to a one-year contract with a pair of opt-outs.

If Judge wants to make a run at breaking the average-annual-value record for position players while maintaining the flexibility to control his long-term future, a similar deal with the Twins could be a dark-horse option.

For the Twins, signing Judge would open the door for a young outfielder such as Alex Kirilloff or Trevor Larnach to be used as trade bait to upgrade the starting rotation behind Sonny Gray (club option) and rookie standout Joe Ryan.

The Texas Rangers spent a combined $556 million to sign Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Jon Gray in free agency last offseason, and the result was a modest improvement from 60 to 68 wins.

There's no reason to expect them to stop spending now.

Slotting Judge alongside Seager, Semien, Nathaniel Lowe, Adolis García, Jonah Heim and rising top prospect Josh Jung would potentially give the Rangers one of the most potent lineups in baseball.

Upgrading the starting rotation is their biggest need, but the same was true last offseason when they instead prioritized a new middle infield, so never say never when it comes to their pursuit of high-end free agents.

The Miami Marlins were one of the worst offensive teams in baseball in 2022, ranking near the bottom of the league in OPS (.658, 27th), home runs (144, 24th) and runs per game (3.62, 28th).

Things went from bad to worse as the season progressed, and after the All-Star break they ranked last in OPS (.627) and runs per game (3.03), making it abundantly clear something needs to be done this offseason to add punch to their offense.

They aimed for the middle last offseason when they signed Avisaíl García and Jorge Soler, and after both sluggers fell short of expectations, the Marlins might be convinced to set their sights higher this winter.

The biggest sticking point is not spending power but convincing Judge to join a team that was not particularly close to contention in 2022.

Starting with the legendary Babe Ruth trade and winding through the likes of Luis Tiant, Wade Boggs, Roger Clemens, Johnny Damon, Kevin Youkilis and Jacoby Ellsbury, the Boston Red Sox have seen a long list of franchise favorites play with the rival New York Yankees.

Could they return the favor by signing Aaron Judge?

The Red Sox find themselves at a crossroads this offseason with Xander Bogaerts expected to opt out of his contract and Rafael Devers staring down free agency after the 2023 season, and if they don't want to go through a rebuilding period, signing Judge would be one way to push toward immediate contention.

Looking at the bigger picture, pitching should be their No. 1 priority with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill all headed for free agency and Chris Sale unable to be counted on to stay healthy. Will shoring up the staff leave enough financial wiggle room for a legitimate run at Judge?

The St. Louis Cardinals were contenders to land Juan Soto before he was traded to the San Diego Padres. Could that mean they pivot to pursuing Judge in free agency?

There's a major difference between trading prospect talent and signing a player to a massive nine-figure deal, but the Cardinals would not have pursued Soto if they didn't also intend on extending him long term.

Of course, interest in a 24-year-old Soto does not guarantee similar interest in a 30-year-old Judge, and the Cardinals will need to also focus their attention on replacing Yadier Molina behind the plate and sorting out a murky starting rotation.

Still, the surprise pursuit of Soto is enough to at least make the Cardinals a speculative landing spot, and it's easy to dream of a middle-of-the-order trio of Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado and Judge.

At their spending peak, the Chicago Cubs had a payroll of $237.2 million at the end of the 2019 season, and that figure plummeted to $174.9 million last season.

They have a projected 2023 payroll of $126.2 million, and that includes $22 million for Jason Heyward, who will finally be off the books after next year, so the Cubs could, in theory, add as much as $100 million to their payroll without reaching uncharted territory.

The expectation is that they will be major players on the shortstop market, but they could also make a run at Judge to be the new anchor of the lineup and face of the franchise for years to come.

"The Yankees envision the main competition coming from the Giants and maybe the Cubs and Dodgers," wrote Jon Heyman of the New York Post this month, providing an early snapshot of how Judge's team views his market.

Don't count out the Cubs on anyone this winter if they're serious about returning to contention.

With center fielder Brandon Nimmo headed for free agency, the New York Mets will need to address their starting outfield alongside Starling Marte and Mark Canha.

After last winter's spending spree, they can't be ruled out on anyone, and if Nimmo winds up commanding $20 million-plus per year, they might decide they'd rather splurge and make a run at Judge.

The limiting factor is the starting rotation.

With Jacob deGrom expected to opt out and Chris Bassitt, Carlos Carrasco and Taijuan Walker also potentially departing via contract options, there could be as many as four spots to fill on the starting staff behind Max Scherzer.

Owner Steve Cohen has given the organization a "money is no object" aura, but it's unclear if the Mets can realistically rebuild the starting rotation and shell out the type of contract it's going to take to add Judge.

As far as rumors go, Monday's report on the Los Angeles Dodgers' interest in Judge was mild at best, but their star-studded roster and top-tier spending ability helps add intrigue.

"According to sources, the Dodgers could become serious players in this offseason’s Aaron Judge sweepstakes, a move that would potentially result in a position change for [Mookie] Betts, a six-time All-Star outfielder," wrote Mark Feinsand of MLB.com.

The article suggests that Betts would be willing to shift to second base to pave the way for a Judge signing. He began his pro career at second base before shifting to the outfield, and he still regularly takes ground balls there, even starting five games at the position during the 2022 season.

The question isn't fit or spending power, but simply how serious the Dodgers are about their interest. This could simply be a ploy to drive up the asking price for their biggest rivals...

The San Francisco Giants used 13 players in the No. 2 spot in the batting order and 14 in the No. 3 spot in the lineup in 2022, which speaks volumes of their lack of elite offensive talent.

Outfielder Joc Pederson (23 HR, 70 RBI) and utility man Wilmer Flores (19 HR, 71 RBI) were the team's top run producers, and after leading the NL with 241 home runs in 2021, they saw that number fall to just 183 this year.

There might be no team in baseball that would benefit more from the addition of Judge than the Giants. With LaMonte Wade Jr., Luis González, Austin Slater and top prospect Heliot Ramos the leading candidates to start alongside Mike Yastrzemski in the outfield, upgrading in the grass should be a top priority.

If anyone is going to push the Yankees into an uncomfortable position financially in Judge negotiations, it will be the Giants.

Judge could have taken the Yankees' offer, locked in $30.5 million per year for the next seven seasons and played out 2022 without the pressure of a contract year and the constant questions that come with it.

Instead, he bet on himself and won, turning in a season for the ages and all but assuring he'll comfortably surpass New York's last offer of the spring.

Simply from a PR standpoint, it would be a disaster for the Yankees to let Judge get away on the heels of his historic season, but how much above their last offer are they willing to go?

"The current belief is that the Yankees prefer not to go to $40 million a year—or certainly not to $400 million total for Judge, who is 30, as they recall the lengthy deals for 30-somethings Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols, and certainly their own Alex Rodriguez," Heyman wrote.

Something like an eight-year, $320 million deal might be the floor in negotiations, and with other holes to plug, the Yankees can't paint themselves in a corner with a mega-extension for Judge.

With all of that said, a reunion between the two sides still looks like the most likely outcome.

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference. Salary info via Spotrac and Cot's Contracts unless otherwise noted.