Predicting the NBA's Best Death Lineups By End of Season

Are NBA "Death Lineups" still a thing? I sure hope so because I've got a bunch ranging from "Purely, wonderfully hypothetical" to "Established, sort of" that I'm convinced are going to be dynamite this season.

Granted, the Death Lineup designation does seem to have lost luster. That happens over time. The Golden State Warriors invented the concept in 2015, which is now the better part of a decade ago.

Many teams also seem to have pivoted from positionless downsizing to positionless upsizing. The search isn't necessarily on for a bunch of dudes who stand no taller than 6'9", unless you live in Toronto. More and more squads are embracing dual-big setups or just lineup iterations featuring really large humans with the offensive skill set and switchability of smaller ones.

This is not to say conventional Death Lineups—aka small-ball, micro-ball, Morey-ball, smaller-ball, all-wings-everything, etc.—are cooked. Plenty of teams can or should lean on pocket-sized combinations to maximize mismatches and versatility. The L.A. Clippers assembled a might-be contender that houses one true big. Small-ball, or at least smaller ball, remains a thing.

Forecasting the best Death Lineups for the rest of this season is a mostly unscientific process. We haven't yet accumulated the sample size necessary to glean anything from the numbers. This exercise is more about conceptual feel and, wherever applicable, past results.

Only a couple of ground rules apply. Most critically, we are taking Death Lineup to mean units without an orthodox center or big. Equally important, I'm targeting five-man arrangements that I suspect will play enough to matter and that could feasibly close games for their teams. The Denver Nuggets have done some pretty wicked stuff with the Michael Porter Jr.-Jeff Green frontcourt, but waxing poetic about a Death Lineup structure that doesn't include Nikola Jokic, a top-five player and reigning two-time MVP, is a big, bloated ick.

These prospective Death Lineups are not being ranked. We will go in alphabetical order by team. The takeaway from this should be, "These Death Lineup-looking combos are both going to see the light of day more than sparingly and be small-burst-or-longer cheat codes."

Brooklyn Nets

Lineup: Kyrie Irving, Kevin Durant, Royce O'Neale, Ben Simmons, Yuta Watanabe

Ben Simmons-without-a-big lineups are becoming more prevalent in Brooklyn these days and generally look a lot better than stashing him beside Nicolas Claxton or Day'Ron Sharpe. But I have too many questions about the fifth member of these units.

The three stars plus Royce O'Neale are givens. A healthy Seth Curry, Joe Harris or Patty Mills makes for offensive hellfire, but the defense during those stretches would be rough. Yuta Watanabe and his fancy lateral footwork is more sensible here, but the idea of his closing games for Brooklyn feels farfetched, and he doesn't necessarily guarantee defensive salvation.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Lineup: Lu Dort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Aleksej Pokuševski, Aaron Wiggins, Kenrich Williams

Yes, Poku is a 7-footer. But he thinks and often plays like an overly self-confident point guard. This group feels like it could wreck lives on defense and live in transition at the other end.

The lack of shooting worries me, as it does for most Oklahoma City lineups. And I'm not sure this fivesome has enough directional ball-handling beyond Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and every ninth Poku possession. Subbing in Tre Mann for him or Wiggins or Dort would address that, but the resulting quintet would be much less switchable and fun.

Boston Celtics

Lineup: Malcolm Brogdon, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Jayson Tatum, Derrick White

This lineup should make the final cut, but the Celtics have yet to lean on it. And if they're not going to explore it while Robert Williams III is on the sidelines, I'm not sure it'll ever be a staple.

Here's hoping I'm wrong.

L.A. Clippers

Lineup: Nicolas Batum, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Marcus Morris Sr., Norman Powell

You'd think the Clippers would have at least one unit that makes the meat-and-potatoes of this list. They don't.

This group could well be a killer. But the Clippers have so far insisted most of their non-big fivesomes include at least one of Reggie Jackson or John Wall, and I'm not sure this lineup is athletic enough to maximize its defensive switchability. Baking in Terance Mann for Nic Batum could do the trick, but does it really? And more than anything, we must be prepared to not see enough of any one lineup from the L.A. Load Managers during the regular season to draw excitable conclusions.

San Antonio Spurs

Lineup: Tre Jones, Keldon Johnson, Josh Richardson, Jeremy Sochan, Devin Vassell

A Johnson-Sochan-Vassell frontcourt? Take my money.

Head coach Gregg Popovich is in full-on experimental mode these days, so exposure for this lineup shouldn't be a problem. Proven track records are a different story. We need to see if (healthy) Devin Vassell is really this magnificent in higher-volume pick-and-roll work and get a better feel for Sochan before slotting this group of 23-and-unders plus Josh Richardson ahead of more seasoned compilations.

Also: Richardson is absolutely a trade candidate, so it'd be questionable form to work him into a season-long ranking.

Lineup: Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins

Sometimes, you just have to go with what you know. And we know this "Poole Party" lineup works.

For the most part.

This fivesome is not terribly established. The Warriors weren't healthy enough to run it out until the 2022 playoffs, where the group instantly became a statistical killer. Golden State outpaced opponents by 16.2 points per 100 possessions with this quintet in the game.

Clear concerns exist. This arrangement wasn't a Celtics clobberer in the NBA Finals, and between post-Achilles-and-ACL-injuries Klay Thompson and subbing out Slightly Post Prime Andre Iguodala for Jordan Poole, the Warriors' newfangled Death Lineup loses plenty of defensive punch. The "Poole Party" compilation is allowing over 115 points per 100 possessions so far this season—right in line with its mark from last year.

Please join me in not giving a flying you-know-what. This five-man gaggle is built to pile on points. Klay can still come at you in droves, Poole is an every-level scoring and passing threat, and Wiggins' three-point touch is officially bankable. Steph remains unstoppable, and surrounding Green with four shooters unlocks his capacity to play-make out of the short roll.

Surviving defensively may always be a challenge. Green and Wiggins are the only decidedly above-average stoppers right now. But this group is hard-wired to score a trillion points per 100 possessions. Their defensive rating, in most matchups, just might not matter.

Lineup: Grayson Allen, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Pat Connaughton, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton

Another "go with what you know" pick.

Some will yank Grayson Allen from this unit for Wesley Matthews. I won't argue with the decision so long as the former continues to shoot under 30 percent from three and 12.5 percent on drives this season. But Allen should, in theory, give the half-court offense an ultra-deep outlet not found in Matthews.

If you're concerned about the defense, then by all means go with the latter. It wasn't an issue last year, though. The Milwaukee Bucks propped up a rock-solid defensive rating when Allen, Giannis, Connaughton, Holiday and Middleton played together—all while scoring 132.4 points per 100 possessions and shooting 71.7 percent at the rim. This exact combination can get the job done.

Whether the Bucks want them to is a separate matter. Middleton's recovery from wrist surgery has prevented this lineup from taking the floor so far, but Milwaukee doesn't seem particularly invested in Giannis-without-a-big groupings. For now, it doesn't need to be. Brook Lopez appears all the way back on defense, and Bobby Portis is off to a scorching-hot start from the floor.

Still, the playoffs are a different beast altogether. Any lineup that dots Giannis with four not-incredibly-small guards and wings is a potential cheat code—and, by extension, a high-stakes crutch.

Lineup: Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy III, Larry Nance Jr., Zion Williamson

Getting to Zion-at-the-5 is the dream for everyone outside New Orleans, mostly because we're much less obligated to care about the resulting defense. Pairing him with Larry Nance Jr., a small-ball center in his own right, seems to straddle the line of off-the-rails mismatch and rational construction.

Then again, maybe not. The Nance-Williamson frontcourt is getting gobsmacked in limited run this season.

Go back and watch some of these minutes, though, and the defense is far from hopeless. The offense, in fact, has been the bigger issue. And it feels temporary when looking at the primary struggle: finishing at the rim.

Partnering Zion and Nance with Ingram, McCollum and Murphy takes care of pretty much everything. This fivesome has three above-average defenders, 3.5 shooters if you count Nance and plenty of on-ball chutzpah—including some situational off-the-bounce shake from Murphy.

New Orleans has barely played them this year, but that's no surprise. Zion (hip) and Ingram (concussion) have both missed time, and the season remains in its infancy. This arrangement should become a staple by year's end.

Feel free to build alternative versions. I considered dropping in Herb Jones for McCollum or Dyson Daniels for Nance. But neither change helps the spacing, and Nance is better equipped to handle center responsibilities on defense than the Pelicans' rookie Swiss Army knife.

Lineup: Jerami Grant, Josh Hart, Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Justise Winslow

Props to everyone who believed in the Portland Trail Blazers ahead of this season. I was not among you, and for that, I am sorry.

Many underestimated the depth and versatility of this team—myself included. General manager Joe Cronin plopped a bunch of length, athleticism and/or high-energy guys next to Lillard and Simons, and it's not only working, but it might have formed a sleeping giant.

Winslow-at-the-5 units have straight-up annihilated opposing offenses. They're allowing 87.2 points per 100 possessions (100th percentile) and forcing turnovers on more than 21 percent of enemy touches (100th) percentile. Early-season noise is loud, but the returns aren't benefiting from anything too wonky. Winslow-at-center minutes have wanted for offense and struggled to get stops at the rim—just like you'd assume.

Converting the starting lineup into a small-ball concoction takes care of the offensive concerns. Lillard and Simons need minimal space to generate scoring opportunities, and Grant remains the MVP of "Has More On-Ball Jiggle Than You Think." Including Hart ensures the Blazers aren't at a rebounding deficit and provides enough spacing to declare this a four-out fivesome.

Nobody's saying Jusuf Nurkic should be benched indefinitely. Winslow-plus-starters is more of a tool than the entire belt, and there will be plenty of matchups in which the Blazers need to give themselves a different look down the stretch of close games.

Especially if they remain on their playoff-lock trajectory.

Lineup: Precious Achiuwa, OG Anunoby, Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr., Fred VanVleet

Two things stand out immediately about this selection. First and foremost, it doesn't read like your typical Death Lineup. It somehow seems too big on the frontline. That's probably a nod to how Siakam is viewed. Nobody within this fivesome, however, stands taller than 6'8".

Finally, the absence of Scottie Barnes stings. It's not unrealistic. There are offensive and defensive tradeoffs if you toss him in for Gary Trent Jr. (offense) or Precious Achiuwa (defense). Maybe this changes by the end of the season.

In the meantime, we have this alignment...which just so happens to be blasting opponents by 79.8 points per 100 possessions. That is not a typo. Nor is it sustainable. This combination will not drill almost 60 percent of its threes forever. The sample, like all other samples right now, is small.

But the premise of this arrangement stands. This is probably the best three-point-shooting group the Raptors can assemble without deviating too far from ball-handing versatility. Everyone in this lineup can attack from the outside-in, and both Siakam and VanVleet arm the quintet with legitimate creators.

There is no defensive weak link relative to how the Raptors guard. Volume at the rim could technically become an issue, but this five-man meld is frenetically blanketing enough to make those looks uncomfortable and blow up entire possessions. This unit is already forcing turnovers more than 22 percent of the time—a seemingly untenable mark that's on par with their returns from last season (20.4 percent), across a larger sample size.

To be honest, if we were ranking these Death Lineups while projecting forward, I'd put maybe one of the previous compilations in front of Toronto's "Disruptive Death Star."

Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Saturday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.

Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.