Biggest Snubs and Misses from 2023 NBA All-Star Starters

Andy Bailey@@AndrewDBaileyX.com LogoFeatured Columnist IVJanuary 27, 2023

Biggest Snubs and Misses from 2023 NBA All-Star Starters

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    Joel Embiid
    Joel EmbiidTim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

    On Thursday, the NBA revealed this year's All-Star starters from both the Eastern and Western Conference.

    And, as is often the case, the fans (whose votes account for 50 percent of the final tally), media and players (25 percent each) didn't quite get it right in the East...

    NBA on TNT @NBAonTNT

    The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBAAllStar?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBAAllStar</a> Eastern Conference Starters:<br><br>⭐️ Giannis Antetokounmpo<br>⭐️ Kevin Durant<br>⭐️ Donovan Mitchell<br>⭐️ Jayson Tatum<br>⭐️ Kyrie Irving <a href="https://t.co/B2UDisxSv2">pic.twitter.com/B2UDisxSv2</a>

    ...or the West.

    NBA on TNT @NBAonTNT

    The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/NBAAllStar?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#NBAAllStar</a> Western Conference Starters:<br><br>⭐️ LeBron James<br>⭐️ Nikola Jokic<br>⭐️ Luka Doncic<br>⭐️ Zion Williamson<br>⭐️ Steph Curry <a href="https://t.co/3m6IER1Og1">pic.twitter.com/3m6IER1Og1</a>

    More than half of the picks are pretty much unassailable. You'll get no arguments against Nikola Jokić, Luka Dončić, Jayson Tatum, Kevin Durant, Donovan Mitchell or LeBron James from me.

    But the other four spots, at the very least, are open to discussion.

    Whether it's lack of availability, dips in production, the superior play of someone on the outside looking in or just bad takes from the voting bloc, this announcement included some misses, and by extension, some potential snubs.

    If the selections were made entirely on merit, these are the snubs who'd have the best cases to be starters, as well as a couple starters who should probably be reserves.

Snub: Tyrese Haliburton

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    Tyrese Haliburton
    Tyrese HaliburtonChris Coduto/Getty Images

    Missing the Indiana Pacers' last eight games probably hurt Tyrese Haliburton's chances. They've been sliding down the standings without him, and playing in a small market doesn't seem to help with the fans, either.

    But Haliburton is one of just two players averaging at least 20 points and 10 assists. The other is James Harden, but he's played nine fewer games and has an effective field-goal percentage 3.4 points below Haliburton's.

    He's also undoubtedly the No. 1 scorer and playmaker on his team. With Joel Embiid on the Philadelphia 76ers, Harden can't check both of those boxes.

    The same can be said of Kyrie Irving, who's an obvious No. 2 to KD and has also played fewer games than Haliburton.

    Beyond the numbers, Haliburton has clearly and successfully assumed a leadership role that had the Pacers smashing expectations before his injury. The pace with which he plays, his vision and his willingness and ability to almost always make the right decision are what have Indiana in the mix for a playoff spot.

Snub: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

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    Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderZach Beeker/NBAE via Getty Images

    Joel Embiid is the only player in the league who matches or exceeds both of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's marks for points per game (30.8) and true shooting percentage (62.5). Luka is the only player with more 30-point games than SGA.

    The Oklahoma City Thunder point guard has only failed to hit 20 points in three appearances all season, but his All-Star case is about much more than being one of the game's best and most dynamic scorers.

    Like Haliburton, Gilgeous-Alexander is the leader of a team that is annihilating expectations. OKC's preseason over-under for wins was 23.5. They need only one more victory to clear that.

    SGA's scoring is a significant reason for the better-than-expected record, but he's helping on the defensive end, too.

    At 6'6", Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 4.0 defensive rebounds, 1.7 steals and 1.1 blocks per game. Before this season, Charles Barkley (who did it twice) and Draymond Green were the only three-point era players SGA's height or shorter who matched or exceeded all three of those marks.

    And while Stephen Curry has a higher estimated plus-minus (one of the most trusted catch-all metrics in the league), Gilgeous-Alexander almost has two more estimated wins (the cumulative version of EPM) because he's played in 11 more games.

    On a per-game or per-minute basis, Curry has probably had the better season, but that doesn't make up for that big of a gap in availability.

Miss: Zion Williamson

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    Zion Williamson
    Zion WilliamsonChris Graythen/Getty Images

    Zion Williamson is a phenomenal player, and he provides one of the game's truly unique viewing experiences. If we're just talking about the fun factor, having him start the All-Star Game is fine.

    In terms who's earned the spot with his play on the floor, it's harder to make Zion's case.

    Scoring is probably his best and most important skill, and due to the fact that he's only appeared in 29 games, he doesn't even qualify for the points-per-game leaderboard (he'd be third among Western Conference frontcourt players if the threshold was lowered to 500 total minutes).

    And while his performance in other categories, including assists and steals per game and three-point percentage, has improved over his last healthy season, his marks there are still far from overwhelming.

    Ultimately, though, this being a miss is about all the time Zion has missed. He's played in less than 60 percent of his team's games.

Snub: Domantas Sabonis

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    Domantas Sabonis
    Domantas SabonisRocky Widner/NBAE via Getty Images

    Meanwhile, Sacramento Kings center Domantas Sabonis has been a rock all season. As other players are coming under fire for resting while healthy, Sabonis is playing through a fractured ligament in his right thumb.

    And he's putting up numbers that would've seemed impossible, especially for a 5, in earlier eras.

    Sabonis is averaging 18.4 points, 12.4 rebounds (which leads the NBA) and 7.3 assists while posting a 66.7 true shooting percentage that's 8.8 points higher than the league average.

    His numbers are the driving force behind Sacramento surging to third in the Western Conference, and they have him hovering in and out of the top five of Basketball Reference's MVP Tracker ("based on a model built using previous voting results").

Snub: Lauri Markkanen

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    Lauri Markkanen
    Lauri MarkkanenSoobum Im/Getty Images

    Lauri Markkanen's case to start the All-Star Game has been weakened by a couple factors over recent weeks. The Utah Jazz have been falling down the standings, while LeBron (another Western Conference frontcourt player) has been playing out of his mind.

    But weakened doesn't necessarily mean eliminated. The argument is still there, and it's based largely on a uniquely efficient scoring repertoire.

    Markkanen is averaging 24.8 points with a 66.6 true shooting percentage. Prior to this season, Stephen Curry was the only player who'd matched or exceeded both marks in an entire season (KD and Jokić are also on pace to do it in 2022-23).

    The Utah forward is getting those numbers in a pretty unusual way, too. You don't often think of catch-and-shoot three-point specialists as vicious dunkers, or vice versa. But Markkanen is second in the league in catch-and-shoot triples and 12th in total dunks.

    And scoring isn't all Markkanen brings. His average of 8.7 rebounds leads the Jazz, and he's tied for second on the team in blocks per game (though he's only at 0.6 there).

Snub: Joel Embiid

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    Joel Embiid
    Joel EmbiidAlika Jenner/Getty Images

    After finishing second in the MVP race in each of the last two seasons, and now missing the cut for the East's All-Star starters in 2023, Joel Embiid might have reason to develop a little complex.

    His numbers—33.4 points, 9.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.7 blocks, 1.1 steals and 1.1 threes—are absurd. He's second in the league in scoring while anchoring a top-10 defense. And his Philadelphia 76ers are ahead of KD's Brooklyn Nets and Giannis Antetokounmpo's Milwaukee Bucks in the standings.

    If those basic arguments aren't enough for you, Embiid (7.0) trails only Jokić (8.3) and Dončić in EPM. Both of them, of course, are in the West.

    Embiid doesn't just have a case to be a frontcourt All-Star starter. There's an argument he's been the Eastern Conference's best player this season.

Miss: Giannis Antetokounmpo

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    Giannis Antetokounmpo
    Giannis AntetokounmpoGary Dineen/NBAE via Getty Images

    From 2018-19 (when he won his first MVP) through 2021-22, Giannis Antetokounmpo had a very real "best player in the world argument." He probably still does, but it would have to rely on those previous seasons. In 2022-23, he simply hasn't been the same player.

    Giannis is averaging a career-high 31.0 points, but his true shooting percentage is as low as it's been since 2015-16. His impact on plus-minus is as low as its been since 2016-17. And he's missed 11 games this season.

    Plus, there's the fact that the last snub has been better in 2022-23.

    Andy Bailey @AndrewDBailey

    Player A is 2022-23 Joel Embiid. Player B is 2022-23 Giannis Antetokounmpo. <a href="https://t.co/R6LSkWWn8f">pic.twitter.com/R6LSkWWn8f</a>

    It's wild to think about an Eastern Conference with three frontcourt players who've outperformed Giannis, but that's where we are with Embiid, Tatum and Durant.

    It doesn't necessarily mean Giannis is worse than that trio. With Khris Middleton back, he could go on a run that brings his numbers closer to earlier levels. And his team is still a contender.

    But if we're just focusing on pre-All-Star break performance in 2022-23, Antetokounmpo probably shouldn't start the All-Star Game.

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