Predicting the 10 Biggest Contracts of the 2023 NFL Offseason

The moment NFL free agency opens, franchises will be spending many, many millions of dollars.

During the 2023 cycle, star quarterback Lamar Jackson will be the headliner. But there are three more quarterbacks set to land hefty contracts, along with a couple of linemen on both sides of the ball.

This list is subjective, but it is ordered based on projected annual value. We've also limited the group of quarterbacks—they will inevitably be paid the largest amounts—to one section.

Additionally, the pool of players is exclusively focused on unrestricted free agents and does not include potential cap casualties.

Lamar Jackson
Contract Projection: Five years, $255 million with Baltimore Ravens, including $205 million guaranteed

In all likelihood, the initial step will be Baltimore placing the franchise tag on Lamar Jackson. Right now, their negotiations are reportedly $100 million apart in guaranteed money.

Welcome to the guessing game!

Before the season, Jackson said the Ravens were willing to include guarantees in the range of $160-180 million. However, he'd apparently declined a five-year, $250 million offer with $133 million guaranteed. If everything is true, the current difference either means Jackson wants an unparalleled annual salary or Baltimore's offer is similar to the $130 million.

The benchmark of note is Deshaun Watson's fully guaranteed five-year, $230 million pact with the Cleveland Browns. Jackson, for good reason, should be eyeing a comparable contract. Of course, the injury red flag will likely be a complication in these discussions.

Ultimately, there's a real chance the Ravens tag-and-trade Jackson. For now, though, a reunion—presumably after months of negotiations—remains the most likely outcome.

Geno Smith
Contract Projection: Three years, $110 million with Seattle Seahawks, including $87 million guaranteed

Daniel Jones
Contract Projection: Four years, $142 million with New York Giants, including $100 million guaranteed

Jimmy Garoppolo
Contract Projection: Three years, $81 million with Las Vegas Raiders, including $54 million guaranteed

Contract Projection: Five years, $110 million with Kansas City Chiefs, including $77 million guaranteed

Kansas City packaged four draft selections—including a first-rounder—to acquire Orlando Brown Jr. in the 2021 offseason. He's not been dominant the entire time but has played at an elite level to close 2022.

Then, from Brown's perspective, he's part of an ideal situation. Chiefs coach Andy Reid is one of the NFL's top coaches, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes is clearly on a Hall of Fame trajectory.

According to Jeff Kerr of CBS Sports, Brown said he "definitely" wants to return next season.

"It means a lot to be a Chief, to have the opportunity to suit up for this franchise and suit up for these guys up front. Playing for (offensive line) coach Andy Heck, coach Reid, Pat. I couldn't ask for a better opportunity."

Kansas City and Brown should be able to reach a pricey extension that likely surpasses $20 million annually.

Contract Prediction: Three years, $60 million with Chicago Bears, including $39 million guaranteed

Javon Hargrave is one of many prominent Philadelphia Eagles slated to hit the open market in March.

And the defensive tackle is ready to cash in.

Last offseason, the Atlanta Falcons inked Grady Jarrett to a three-year extension worth up to $51 million with $34.5 million of guarantees. Jarrett, who earned All-Pro honors in 2019, was entering his age-29 season.

Hargrave turned 30 in early February, and he racked up 11 sacks in 2022. He certainly should be viewed on the higher end of Jarrett's deal. Plenty of teams will be interested in bolstering the pass-rush with Hargrave, who we previously pegged to the Bears.

Contract Projection: Four years, $78 million with Atlanta Falcons, including $48 million guaranteed

Organized in the "Offseason Moments I Love" pile, Daron Payne wore an all-green jumpsuit to his final media availability after the season ended. He also provided a key phrase about his next contract.

"You know what I want, man. It's self-explanatory," Payne said, per Ethan Cadeaux of NBC Sports Washington. "I just want what I earned."

The simple truth is the Washington Commanders might have to let him walk. They recently extended defensive tackle Jonathan Allen and have discussions looming with edge-rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat.

Allen signed a four-year, $72 million contract with $35.6 million guaranteed. That deal clipped the four-year, $71 million extension with $33.9 million in guarantees that Vita Vea signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both players were 26 years old at the time of the agreements.

Guess what age Payne turns this May?

Yes, the Falcons handed Jarrett that extension last year. However, they can afford splashy defensive additions if they commit to Desmond Ridder, a quarterback on his rookie deal. And if Jarrett's performance dips in 2023, Atlanta has a realistic out from his contract next year.

Contract Projection: Five years, $85 million with Detroit Lions, including $45 million guaranteed

This one feels pretty straightforward.

Naturally, that means I will regret the statement. But last March, the Los Angeles Chargers handed 26-year-old J.C. Jackson a five-year contract worth $82.5 million with $40 million in guarantees.

Bump the numbers slightly, and the result is a reasonable outlook for Bucs corner Jamel Dean.

Jackson had surrendered 6.5 yards per target with 53 passes defensed (27 interceptions) in four seasons on the New England Patriots. Dean has ceded 5.9 yards per target with 41 pass defenses (seven picks) for Tampa. We can debate if Jackson's ball skills increase his value, but the contract precedent is more likely a greater factor here.

The cornerback-needy Lions should be contacting Dean with a substantial offer to headline their secondary.

Contract Projection: Three years, $48 million with Chicago Bears, including $35 million guaranteed

From a team perspective, the most uncomfortable free-agent situation of 2023 might just be Jakobi Meyers.

The undrafted wide receiver carved out a starting role in New England in his second year. During the past three seasons, Meyers has collected 209 receptions for 2,399 yards and eight touchdowns, effectively averaging 70 catches and 800 yards.

Those are acceptable-yet-modest numbers. They're also eerily comparable to Christian Kirk, who essentially pulled in 64 passes for 770 yards in his past three seasons with the Arizona Cardinals.

The Jacksonville Jaguars handed Kirk a shocking four-year contract worth $72 million with $37 million guaranteed.

The bright side is Kirk turned in a career-best season, tallying 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns on 84 receptions. One organization will take a similar gamble, and the Bears—who need to surround Justin Fields with impactful options—have the money to take a shot on Meyers without truly sacrificing long-term flexibility.

Contract Projection: Four years, $61 million with San Francisco 49ers, including $32 million guaranteed

In case you haven't noticed the trend, comparable agreements are a leading factor in these projections.

As the 2022 campaign neared its end, Browns right tackle Jack Conklin signed a four-year, $60 million extension with $28.9 million guaranteed. That's an easy comparison for Mike McGlinchey, who, like Conklin, is 28.

Conklin, granted, is a two-time first-team AP All-Pro. McGlinchey hasn't earned that level of recognition, so it's plausible San Francisco has a little bit of leverage in these talks.

But the important point to remember is that Conklin inked an extension, whereas McGlinchey may reach the open market. Presumably, that would increase his price, but he's a player the Niners should keep given how ideally his run-blocking prowess fits the offense.