We're back! Three and a half months after the Champions League entered hibernation, Europe's premier club competition returns on Tuesday with a barnstorming slate of fixtures, headlined by a clash between Paris Saint-Germain and Bayern Munich (you can catch all the action on CBS and Paramount+). Here's what we're looking out for in some of this week's games, plus an attempt to predict who is going to win it all.
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PSG vs. Bayern Munich: Bavarians play it safe
The Champions League returns on Tuesday with perhaps its most unknowable tie. For starters, anywhere between one and three of Paris Saint-Germain's fabled attacking trident could take the pitch at the Parc des Princes with question marks hovering over the status of both Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi, both of whom returned to training on Monday. Neymar might be available but on recent form it is very hard to be sure which version of the attacking midfielder PSG will see.
Matched up against them are a Bayern side who tend to eschew such mundanities as a consistent tactical formula under Julian Nagelsmann, a head coach who cannot help himself but tinker with the setup on European nights. Now that he has Joao Cancelo, Europe's most positionally versatile defender, just imagine the shapes he could create out of possession. For both Nagelsmann and Christophe Galtier, however, the stakes are so high that experimentation for experimentation's sake seems an almighty gamble. The side that emerges from this tie victorious will immediately be catapulted into the top ranks of the competition's contender. The loser will be plunged into a great existential crisis, perhaps the sort that concludes with a rebuild and a new coach in the dugout.
If that is not cause enough for anxiety on Sabener Strasse then consider the memories of what happened last time they crossed paths with Mbappe, whose return to training was just as Nagelsmann predicted. Doubtless memories have not faded of the Frenchman's visit to Munich in the spring of 2021, when situations like this, where Bayern are massed in front of the PSG defensive line, waiting to pick the lock ...
... became the sheer horror of Mbappe charging into open field, one misplaced pass by Bayern enough to unleash PSG's devastating three man counter. Even when Bayern's scramble defense got a lot right on that occasion, they still could not stop the great man from finding the net. No wonder, this is his competition, these are the nights when apex Mbappe comes out to hunt. Even short of full steam, he is a threat that has to be adjusted for.
Luckily for Nagelsmann, however, his side have already shown an ability to adapt effectively in this tournament in the sort of manner that could inflict on PSG what the Parisians inflicted on Bayern two years ago. In their 3-0 group stage win over Barcelona this season, the Bavarians thrived through the counter attack and long passes aimed toward Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting, who was surrounded with runners such as Sadio Mane, all ready to claim the knockdowns that he created for them. Whether their hosts play with a back three or four there will surely be space in behind PSG fullbacks Nuno Mendes and Achraf Hakimi for Bayern's wide forwards to attack.
This promises to be a tense, absorbing and perhaps ultimately undecided contest, one where both sides will be as concerned about guarding against the opposition forwards as they will be exploiting their own. A moment of magic from Messi, Mbappe, or whoever Nagglesman decides is his main counterattacking outlet, could decide the outcome but it seems no less probable that we will resume at the Allianz Arena next month with everything still at stake.
Craving more UCL coverage? Listen below and follow House of Champions, a CBS Sports soccer podcast, bringing you top-notch analysis, commentary, picks and more.
Club Brugge vs. Benfica: Eagles soar toward last eight
Other ties do not promise to be quite so keenly contested. Club Brugge were the fairytale story of the group stages, racing to a qualifying spot within four games, stunning Porto with a 4-0 road win before brushing past Atletico Madrid with the authority of seasoned European contenders. Their Champions League results were all the more remarkable given that in the Pro League they were making a pretty disastrous hash of defending their title, losing to the likes of Standard Liege and Westerlo as they battled to cling onto a playoff spot.
For that reason, the axe fell on the man who got Club Brugge out of the group stages, with Carl Hoefkens replaced by Scott Parker, a head coach who is rather more familiar with escaping the Championship than the Champions League. The former Bournemouth and Fulham boss has not masterminded much of an upswing in the picturesque confines of Bruges, since taking over he has won one, lost one and drawn five.
Brugge's Champions League numbers looked like they would be hard to replicate in Europe -- is Simon Mignolet the best shot-stopper in Europe, as his post-shot expected goal performance in the group stage would suggest he is? It seems unlikely -- but it would appear that even in Belgium they are not proving to be an opponent to fear. The same would not be said of Benfica, who might have crashed out of the Taca de Portugal with a penalty defeat to Braga last week but are dominant in the league, where they have won their last four matches by an aggregate score of 11-0.
We have already seen that this team can translate domestic dominance to overcoming the biggest teams and the loss of Enzo Fernandes hardly seems to have registered in their midfield. Further up the pitch Goncalo Guedes has started brightly on his loan from Wolverhampton Wanderers. Meanwhile every other team in Europe will be watching with baited breath to see if Goncalo Ramos, who averages a frankly ludicrous 1.02 xG per 90 minutes in the Portuguese league, is the next big thing to emerge from the Estadio da Luz (they should keep an eye on Andreas Schjelderup too). All the signs are pointing to something rather comprehensive in this tie.
Borussia Dortmund vs. Chelsea: Scoring blues start to ease
After £110 million of expenditure on left wingers alone it really should not constitute a slightly spicy take to suggest that Chelsea might actually be able to kick the ball into the net but here we are, examining a team who are still trailing Erling Haaland in the Premier League scoring charts. To make matters slightly worse (and it is only slightly), Chelsea are returning to European action without a true senior striker in their squad, veteran Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang bombed out of the Champions League squad months after arriving so as to make room for three January signings.
It has been rather forgotten that Chelsea's scoring issues predate Graham Potter, that so much of the excellent work Thomas Tuchel did on his appointment two years ago was about fixing a leaky defense. The German built solid foundations but never quite managed to expand the Blues' attacking horizons beyond a reliance on the excellence of Reece James and Mason Mount. Under Potter the former has been injured and the latter has suffered a severe drop off in form, such that he was left out of the side that drew 1-1 against West Ham in favor of Noni Madueke.
Chelsea's faltering attack
Per 90 Premier League minutes
| Player | Non-penalty xG |
|---|---|
Kai Havertz | 0.35 |
Raheem Sterling | 0.3 |
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | 0.26 |
Christian Pulisic | 0.2 |
Mason Mount | 0.15 |
| Benoit Badiashile | 0.15 |
But there is reason to hope that the goals might come, and not just because a team that has scored six goals from shots worth 11.1 xG since the World Cup is probably due a little bit of finishing luck. Borussia Dortmund's defense might have looked stronger in their win over Werder Bremen but this is still a team that struggles to keep control of games and can be easily ripped through in transition moments. That is a bit of a problem when Chelsea have so many young players who could very quickly prove themselves to be adept in those exact scenarios, from Fernandez's eye for a pass to the lightning pace of Mykhailo Mudryk via Joao Felix, who seems to excel when tasked with making rapid decisions on the move.
Chelsea are still a long way from being the finished article offensively and it may not be until next season, assuming the entire team isn't rebuilt yet again, when we see Potter conjure up a plan that will allow the Blues to break down set defenses. But for now, the players he has should be well suited to doing damage to this particular opponent.
Milan vs. Tottenham
These two teams are both struggling, and honestly who knows what Tottenham are going to produce given that their last two outings have produced a gritty 1-0 win against one of this tournament's favorites and an absolute masterclass collapse of a performance in a 4-1 loss to Leicester City. Milan meanwhile broke a four game losing skid with a 1-0 win against Torino over the weekend. Can one of these teams pull it together by Tuesday? Milan seem like the more likely option. Spurs lost midfielder Rodrigo Bentancur to injury and are without Hugo Lloris in goal leaving them lightweight and susceptible in midfield, and reliant on the Fraser Forster in goal.
Spurs under Antonio Conte want to play a conservative positional game and attack at speed. That's rather hard to do when you can't stop the ball in midfield, and can't stop it from heading into your own net either.
And finally ... how this competition will shake out
Reaching the last eight: Bayern Munich, AC Milan, Benfica, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Napoli, Manchester City, Inter Milan
Top scorer: Mbappe and Mohamed Salah lead the way on seven but Erling Haaland only has to make up two to leapfrog them. Unlike them, he has a strong chance of making a deep run in this competition, playing in a side who focus their chance creation on him should set him up to claim the scoring crown.
Breakout star: We mentioned Ramos earlier in this competition but the best youngster in a Benfica shirt this season might prove to be Antonio Silva, the supremely talented young center back who has already established an impressive partnership with Nicolas Otamendi. The Portuguese leaders might well surprise a big opponent if they face one in the quarter finals. If they do, expect Silva to catch the attention.
Player of the tournament: Since UEFA instituted this prize in 2017 it has only ever gone to a representative from the winning team so you're going to have to scroll down a paragraph if you want to see who's getting this. No spoilers ...
Champions League winner: It's a curiously unconvincing field of 16 this season, perhaps heightened by the fact that one of PSG and Bayern will eliminate the other while Liverpool will either send the holders crashing out or, more likely, exit early. Manchester City are the obvious choice but there are so many unknowns with them that it is hard not to swing behind the most reliable winners in Europe this season, Napoli. The winner of the Bayern-PSG tie will certainly be in the mix too but we've already seen top tier opponents overwhelmed by the sheer attacking thrust of Luciano Spalletti's side. For now they seem as good a pick as any to win the whole thing with Kvicha Kvaratskelia as player of the tournament.
