2023 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68

When Alabama and Houston squared off in mid-December, who could have guessed that game would make such an inescapable impact on the projected No. 1 seed line for the 2023 men's NCAA tournament?

Plenty has happened since then—including a pair of losses by Purdue in the past 10 days—but that marquee road win has helped push the Crimson Tide to No. 1 overall, while the Cougars remain in the hunt for the top spot in spite of that home loss.

Alabama, Houston, Purdue and Kansas are clearly the projected No. 1 seeds.

The bubble, however, is exponentially murkier following yet another week of carnage. North Carolina got a much-needed win, knocking Clemson out of the field, but then lost at home to Miami to remain in dire straits. Kentucky suffered a bad loss at Georgia, but it was only, like, the sixth-worst loss by a bubble team on Saturday alone.

On a related note, please never expand the tournament field. Thanks.

For each of the four regions, we will discuss one team in better shape than it was one week ago and another that—though still in position to dance—has fallen on hard times.

Before that, we will start with the bubble. After the region-by-region breakdowns, there will be an explanation of why the No. 1 seeds are ranked in the order they are. At the end is a list of seeds by conference as a handy reference guide.

One quick "glossary" note: When we take deeper looks at specific teams' resumes, you'll see NET, RES and QUAL. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the primary sorting metric used by the selection committee and the metric from which quadrant records are derived. RES is the average of the team's resume metrics (Kevin Pauga Index and Strength of Record). QUAL is the average of the quality metrics (ESPN's BPI, KenPom.com and Sagarin).

NET rankings are updated daily here. The others are masterfully aggregated by Bart Torvik. Records are current through the start of play Tuesday. All other data is current through the start of play Monday, unless otherwise noted.

Last Team In: North Carolina Tar Heels
16-10, NET: 40, RES: 42.5, QUAL: 31.0

The saving grace for the Tar Heels is that they haven't suffered any bad losses. Darn near every bubble team has as at least one Q3 loss. A bunch of them even have a Q4 misstep or two. But not the Tar Heels. With nary a Q1 win in eight tries, however, "no bad losses" only gets you so far. UNC must go at least 3-2 the rest of the way, and probably even 4-1 if it expects to be in good shape for a bid prior to the ACC tournament.

Second-to-Last In: Wisconsin Badgers
14-10, NET: 80, RES: 46.5, QUAL: 67.3

Keeping Wisconsin in the projected field after its loss at Nebraska feels just plain wrong. At No. 80 in the NET, even when the Badgers lose at home, it doesn't count as a Quad 1 win for the other team. But the Badgers have fared reasonably well against one of the toughest schedules in the nation, sitting at 5-6 vs. Quad 1—with a nice win at Marquette—with no Q3 or Q4 losses. (Though the home loss to Wake Forest is right on the Q2/Q3 cutline.) To remain in line for a bid, they probably need to sweep Michigan, win at Minnesota and win at least one of the remaining home games against Rutgers, Iowa and Purdue.

Third-to-Last In: Boise State Broncos
19-6, NET: 27, RES: 38.0, QUAL: 37.7

Fourth-to-Last In: New Mexico Lobos
19-6, NET: 48, RES: 46.0, QUAL: 69.3

The dream of a five-bid Mountain West is probably kaput after Utah State went 0-2 this week against SDSU and SJSU, and the nightmare of a two-bid MWC is feeling more realistic by the day as BSU and UNM teeter on the bubble.

Of the two, the Lobos undeniably have the better top wins, defeating both Saint Mary's and San Diego State on the road. They also won the head-to-head battle—at home in overtime, but still a win. However, New Mexico added a third Quad 3 loss Friday at Air Force and has lost four of five overall.

Both teams have a home game remaining against San Diego State in late February, but it's beginning to feel like the rematch in Boise on Feb. 22 could determine which of these teams gets into the dance—and which one doesn't.

Fifth-to-Last In: Kentucky Wildcats
16-9, NET: 46, RES: 49.0, QUAL: 37.3

Reports of Kentucky's demise after the loss to Georgia were greatly exaggerated. Oh, that loss hurt. No question about it. But the Wildcats are in good shape in all the metrics, and that road win over Tennessee hasn't gone anywhere. (The Volunteers seem hellbent on devaluing that win with losses in three of their last four games, though.) Massive week on tap with a road game against Mississippi State followed by the rematch with Tennessee. Work a split of those two games and UK likely remains barely in next week's projected field.

First Team Out: USC Trojans
17-8, NET: 62, RES: 47.0, QUAL: 55.3

There were bad losses by bubble teams last Saturday, and then there was USC's loss to what was a 9-16 Oregon State squad. The Trojans were short-handed sans Reese Dixon-Waters and Joshua Morgan, but that's a game they had to win—and they shot 1-of-14 from deep in failing to do so. USC also got pummeled at Oregon two nights earlier, so it was a brutal week for a team that hasn't done much outside of the home win over UCLA. The Trojans might need to go 5-1 down the stretch to salvage a bid.

Second Team Out: Texas A&M Aggies
18-7, NET: 33, RES: 44.0, QUAL: 30.3

After finishing season sweeps of Auburn and LSU, the Aggies are up to 10-2 in the SEC. That's got to be worthy of a bid, right? But they have yet to face Alabama or Tennessee, they lost their games against Kentucky and Arkansas, and their nonconference resume—with awful losses to Murray State and Wofford and nothing close to a quality win—was a disaster. We'll find out in a hurry if this team is deserving, though. A&M's next four games: vs. Arkansas, at Missouri, vs. Tennessee, at Mississippi State.

Third Team Out: Clemson Tigers
18-7, NET: 77, RES: 55.0, QUAL: 72.7

So much for that ACC auto bid. After starting 10-1 in league play, Clemson has dropped three straight against Boston College, Miami and North Carolina. The Tigers have a decent stockpile of respectable wins—vs. Duke, NC State and Penn State, at Pitt, swept Virginia Tech—but nothing great. Those aren't enough to counter-balance the bad losses to BC, South Carolina and Loyola-Chicago. A loss to Florida State or Louisville this week would probably eliminate Clemson from the conversation.

Fourth Team Out: Oregon Ducks
15-11, NET: 50, RES: 54.5, QUAL: 41.0

Oregon has suffered 11 losses, five of them to teams not projected to dance. The nonconference home losses to UC Irvine and Utah Valley were the bad ones, but even those aren't awful with both of those squads now in the NET top 100. And after beating USC this week, the Ducks have four Quad 1 wins and a solid 8-9 record against the top two Quadrants. They're basically Wisconsin, but with an additional not-great loss weighing them down. They must win the remaining five regular-season games, all against the bottom half of the Pac-12.

Fifth Team Out: North Texas Mean Green
21-5, NET: 49, RES: 47.5, QUAL: 73.7

We have finally reached the point of the season when enough middling major-conference teams have suffered enough losses that the way-more-wins-than-losses mid-majors are starting to look intriguing for at-large bids. North Texas got swept by Florida Atlantic and got stomped at Saint Mary's in November, but the Mean Green have gone 21-2 against non-tournament teams, including a noteworthy sweep of UAB. If they take care of business on the road against Louisiana Tech and UTEP this week, don't be surprised if they sneak into the next projected field.

Des Moines, Iowa
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Northwestern State/Grambling State
No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 North Carolina State

Orlando, Florida
No. 4 Xavier vs. No. 13 Sam Houston State
No. 5 Saint Mary's vs. No. 12 North Carolina/Boise State

Greensboro, North Carolina
No. 3 Virginia vs. No. 14 Furman
No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Mississippi State

Sacramento, California
No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Vermont
No. 7 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Arkansas

Movin' On Up: Oklahoma State Cowboys (Up Four Seed Lines)
16-9, NET: 29, RES: 34.5, QUAL: 24.7

Behold the power of catching fire in the nation's best conference.

A month ago, Oklahoma State was 9-8 with losses to Southern Illinois, UCF and Virginia Tech and only one noteworthy win at home against West Virginia. The Cowboys were top-40 on KenPom, but they were an at-large afterthought, if that.

Since then, though, they've swept Iowa State, swept Oklahoma and won home games against TCU, Texas Tech and Ole Miss. The lone loss during that eight-game stretch was on the road against Texas, which is in the mix for a No. 1 seed.

The road win over the Cyclones was the best of the bunch, and that came Saturday, vaulting Oklahoma State from the bubble to a solid position in the field.

Let's see how well the Cowboys finish the fight, though. Before our next projection, they'll host Kansas and play at both TCU and West Virginia, which could drop them to 16-12 and back onto the bubble in a hurry.

Fadin' Fast: Arizona Wildcats (Down One Seed Line)
22-4, NET: 10, RES: 9.5, QUAL: 11.0

Arizona's resume has become a full-blown conundrum.

The Wildcats are 5-0 against the top half of Quadrant 1, boasting great wins over Tennessee, UCLA, Creighton, Indiana and San Diego State. But after Saturday's loss at Stanford, they have also dropped four games in league play against teams not projected to dance—four losses that came by a combined margin of 56 points, no less.

That perfect record in marquee games makes Arizona feel like a candidate for a No. 1 seed, and we had the Wildcats at No. 4 overall one week ago. But all those unsavory losses leave this team feeling like more of a No. 3 seed. The Wildcats only hung on to a No. 2 seed this week because both Tennessee (vs. Missouri) and Kansas State (at Texas Tech) lost Saturday.

Birmingham, Alabama
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 16 Radford
No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 9 Michigan State

Albany, New York
No. 4 Iowa State vs. No. 13 Dayton
No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 12 Drake

Columbus, Ohio
No. 3 Marquette vs. No. 14 Yale
No. 6 Missouri vs. No. 11 Oral Roberts

Denver, Colorado
No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Colgate
No. 7 Rutgers vs. No. 10 Memphis

Movin' On Up: Indiana Hoosiers (Up Two Seed Lines)
18-7, NET: 17, RES: 17.0, QUAL: 16.0

Victorious in eight of their last nine games, the Hoosiers keep climbing up the seed list.

This week, those wins came against Rutgers (home) and Michigan (road)—both Quadrant 1 results—as Trayce Jackson-Davis continued to dominate in the paint.

Going up against Clifford Omoruyi and Hunter Dickinson was no matter for TJD, as he posted a combined line of 48 points, 29 rebounds, nine assists and three blocks. Miller Kopp pitched in 18 points against Rutgers, and Jalen Hood-Schifino played second fiddle with 21 points and five assists against Michigan.

The Hoosiers are 6-6 against projected tournament teams, with the other loss (at Penn State) still respectably in Quad 1. With two more Quad 1 games this week (at Northwestern, vs. Illinois), we'll see if Indiana's ascent continues.

Fadin' Fast: Rutgers Scarlet Knights (Down Two Seed Lines)
16-9, NET: 21, RES: 41.5, QUAL: 15.7

Rutgers suffered a tough blow this week, losing starting forward Mawot Mag to a torn ACL. He wasn't a big-time scorer for the Scarlet Knights, but he was a key rebounder and defender.

Losing him before back-to-back road games against Indiana and Illinois was especially rough, and Rutgers couldn't win either of those contests without him.

The Scarlet Knights are still in great shape for a bid, but they better not mess around too much.

Their remaining six games are against Nebraska, Wisconsin, Michigan, Penn State, Minnesota and Northwestern—four games against bubble teams and two games against teams nowhere near the projected field. Going 3-3 (or worse) against that slate could be problematic for a team whose RES metrics aren't anything special.

Columbus, Ohio
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 SIU-Edwardsville/Wagner
No. 8 Nevada vs. No. 9 Auburn

Albany, New York
No. 4 Connecticut vs. No. 13 Kent State
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 Liberty

Greensboro, North Carolina
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 Iona
No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 New Mexico/Wisconsin

Denver, Colorado
No. 2 Baylor vs. No. 15 Youngstown State
No. 7 Iowa vs. No. 10 Pittsburgh

Movin' On Up: Creighton Bluejays (Up Three Seed Lines)
17-8, NET: 13, RES: 26.5, QUAL: 10.0

Just like Oklahoma State and just like Indiana, Creighton just keeps winning.

The Bluejays extended their winning streak to eight games by winning by 13 at Seton Hall before eking out a home win over Connecticut over the weekend, adding two more Quadrant 1 wins to what is becoming a strong resume.

Creighton is 4-5 against the projected field, plus a convincing sweep of a solid Seton Hall team. It also scored an 11-point neutral-site victory over Texas Tech. The recent home win over Villanova was more impressive than it looks on the resume too now the Wildcats are at full strength and beginning to turn a corner.

Of course, five losses to the projected field on a resume with eight total losses implies a few baddies. Those came consecutively in December against Nebraska, BYU and Arizona State. None of those is terrible, though, and the Bluejays have done more than enough good to make up for that rough patch.

They may well win their six remaining games, but as long as they go at least 3-3—and don't lose the home game to Georgetown—that should lock them into the field.

Fadin' Fast: Auburn Tigers (Down Two Seed Lines)
17-8, NET: 35, RES: 29.0, QUAL: 27.0

Compared with most bubble teams, Auburn's metrics are solid across the board.

However, this team is falling apart at the seams with losses in five of its last six games.

None of the losses was bad, save for maybe the 79-63 home loss to Texas A&M. But the Tigers have quickly gone from a team that hadn't been tested to one that has repeatedly failed tests. Until two-and-a-half weeks ago, they hadn't played a game against the top half of Quad 1. Now, they're 0-4 in those opportunities.

On the plus side, that neutral-site win over Northwestern in November keeps looking better for Auburn. With the Wildcats' upset of Purdue on Sunday, they are firmly in the projected field.

Still, Auburn's best wins of the year were that game against a projected No. 8 seed and home games against projected No. 10 and No. 11 seeds in Arkansas and Mississippi State, respectively.

The Tigers probably need to win each of their next three games against Missouri, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss, because the closing stretch of Kentucky, Alabama and Tennessee will not be forgiving.

Birmingham, Alabama
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Norfolk State
No. 8 Northwestern vs. No. 9 West Virginia

Orlando, Florida
No. 4 Gonzaga vs. No. 13 Southern Miss
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 Charleston

Des Moines, Iowa
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara
No. 6 Illinois vs. No. 11 Kentucky

Sacramento, California
No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 Montana State
No. 7 Duke vs. No. 10 Providence

Movin' On Up: San Diego State Aztecs (Up One Seed Line)
20-5, NET: 19, RES: 14.5, QUAL: 24.7

February has been mighty kind to the Aztecs, who were previously lacking in Quad 1 wins.

Between the Feb. 3 home win over Boise State and the Feb. 8 victory at Utah State, that resume has gained some serious oomph over the past two weeks.

Prior to that, San Diego State's best win was either the neutral-site victory over Ohio State or the home games against Nevada or Utah State. All solid wins, but the Aztecs were previously 0-4 against the top half of Quadrant 1 and only had one Quadrant 1 win overall—the Ohio State game that is barely worth mentioning anymore.

Even though the metrics loved them, it was hard to justify even giving them a No. 6 seed.

Now, the Aztecs are making a serious run at a protected (top-four) seed. If they were to win out and add road wins over New Mexico and Boise State, they would be in good shape for a No. 3 seed—maybe even a No. 2 seed if they also win the MWC tournament.

Fadin' Fast: Providence Friars (Down Three Seed Lines)
18-7, NET: 43, RES: 43.5, QUAL: 33.0

It was a classic "Don't mess up" week for the Friars, featuring a home game against Georgetown and a road game against St. John's.

But they messed up.

In Saturday's game at St. John's, the Red Storm jumped out to an early 25-9 lead and never let Providence reclaim the lead en route to a 73-68 upset.

The Friars are in a Kentucky-ish spot with just two wins over the projected field (vs. Connecticut; vs. Marquette) and a pair of bad losses (at St. John's; Saint Louis on a neutral floor). Granted, Kentucky's worst loss was much worse (vs. South Carolina), but Providence isn't convincingly in the field.

Take care of business in the building formerly known as the Dunk, though, and they'll be more than fine. The Friars have home games remaining against Creighton, Villanova, Xavier and Seton Hall, and winning those four games would get them back into the mix for a No. 6 or No. 7 seed.

No. 4: Kansas Jayhawks
20-5, NET: 8, RES: 2.0, QUAL: 8.7

For a few hours, Kansas' 23-point win at Oklahoma on Saturday put the Jayhawks at 12-5 vs. Quad 1. However, it was such a blowout that it bumped the Sooners out of the NET top 75 the following morning. Got to love the quadrants, eh? Still, 11-5 is nothing to sneeze at, though it is noteworthy that Kansas is just 2-4 against the top half of Quad 1. With at least four more games of that ilk still to come (based on current NET rankings), we'll see if the Jayhawks can add a few marquee wins to their resume and solidify this projected No. 1 seed.

No. 3: Houston Cougars
23-2, NET: 1, RES: 4.5, QUAL: 1.0

Poor Tulsa. After losing by 39 to Houston in December, the Golden Hurricane lost by 38 in the Cougars' only game of the past week (and proceeded to lose by 44 to UCF, by the way). As such, ho hum, Houston remains No. 1 in all the predictive metrics as we await the impending matchups with Memphis. The first one finally comes Sunday in Houston.

No. 2: Purdue Boilermakers
23-3, NET: 4, RES: 3.0, QUAL: 5.3

Losing to Northwestern wasn't an auto drop from the top spot for Purdue. It's still a close call for No. 1 overall since the Boilermakers sit at 9-3 against Quad 1 with no bad losses. But Alabama has slightly better metrics across the board and the much better best victory (at Houston), so the Crimson Tide get the nod.

No. 1: Alabama Crimson Tide
22-3, NET: 2, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 2.3

We'll see if Alabama can maintain its undefeated record in SEC play after visiting Tennessee on Wednesday, but the Crimson Tide have been making a mockery of this conference. Not only are they 12-0, but their average margin of victory is also 21.1 points per game. Sure, the 101-44 dismantling of Vanderbilt skewed the numbers, but they've only had one league game decided by fewer than eight points.

Despite picking up a 24-point loss to Oklahoma in the middle of that run, they've built up a mighty impressive tournament resume, boasting seven wins away from home (and 11 total wins) over the projected field.

In case seeded regions aren't enough and you want to know where the "top" 68 teams stand in relation to one another, here is a list of each squad's overall seed, broken down by conference. "First Five Out" are listed in italics. Projected automatic bids for each conference are based on QUAL metrics as opposed to conference record.

American (2): 3. Houston; 40. Memphis

ACC (6): 9. Virginia; 20. Miami; 27. Duke; 33. NC State; 38. Pittsburgh; 46. North Carolina; 71. Clemson

Big 12 (8): 4. Kansas; 5. Baylor; 6. Texas; 10. Kansas State; 14. Iowa State; 22. TCU; 28. Oklahoma State; 36. West Virginia

Big East (5): 12. Marquette; 15. Xavier; 16. Connecticut; 24. Creighton; 39. Providence

Big Ten (9): 2. Purdue; 18. Indiana; 21. Illinois; 25. Iowa; 26. Rutgers; 29. Northwestern; 32. Maryland; 34. Michigan State; 45. Wisconsin

Mountain West (4): 19. San Diego State; 30. Nevada; 43. New Mexico; 44. Boise State

Pac-12 (2): 7. UCLA; 8. Arizona; 69. USC; 72. Oregon

SEC (7): 1. Alabama; 11. Tennessee; 23. Missouri; 35. Auburn; 37. Arkansas; 41. Mississippi State; 42. Kentucky; 70. Texas A&M

West Coast (2): 13. Gonzaga; 17. Saint Mary's

Other (23): 31. Florida Atlantic; 47. Oral Roberts; 48. Liberty; 49. Charleston; 50. Drake; 51. Sam Houston State; 52. Kent State; 53. Dayton; 54. Southern Miss; 55. Yale; 56. Iona; 57. Furman; 58. UC Santa Barbara; 59. Colgate; 60. Youngstown State; 61. Vermont; 62. Montana State; 63. Radford; 64. Norfolk State; 65. Northwestern State; 66. Grambling State; 67. SIU-Edwardsville; 68. Wagner; 73. North Texas

Statistics courtesy of Sports Reference and KenPom unless otherwise noted.

Kerry Miller covers men's college basketball and Major League Baseball for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter: @kerrancejames.