8 Teams Built to Bust Brackets in the 2023 Men's NCAA Tournament

Kerry Miller@@kerrancejamesX.com LogoFeatured Columnist IVFebruary 20, 2023

8 Teams Built to Bust Brackets in the 2023 Men's NCAA Tournament

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    Nevada's Jarod Lucas
    Nevada's Jarod LucasSam Wasson/Getty Images

    The NCAA tournament is all about matchups. Sometimes you find the right one; other times the wrong one finds you. That's why the college basketball teams most likely to win it all aren't necessarily the ones with the greatest strengths, but rather they're the ones with the fewest and least damaging weaknesses.

    Today, we're taking an early look at eight men's teams—four likely at-large teams and four "better earn their mid-major conference's auto bid if they want to have a chance at being Cinderella" teams—capable of exploiting a title contender's weaknesses and ruining brackets across the nation.

    From turnover-forcing defenses to three-point assaults, unstoppable offenses, star players and everything in between, there are a wide variety of teams that could cause problems.

    All teams on this list are projected for no better than a No. 8 seed in the most recent Bracket Matrix update. That means it would be a sizable upset if they made it to the Sweet 16. But with the right draw, they might be able to make it further than that.

    Teams are presented in alphabetical order.

Iona Gaels

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    Iona's Nelly Junior Joseph
    Iona's Nelly Junior JosephSam Wasson/Getty Images

    One of these years, Iona is going to break through for that elusive first NCAA tournament victory.

    The Gaels did win one game under Jim Valvano in 1980, but in 13 consecutive trips to the Big Dance since then, immediate exits are the only life they've known.

    This year's team is built different, though.

    Long gone are the Tim Cluess-coached Gaels who ran fast, shot well and pretty much just hoped you wouldn't outscore them and their matador defense.

    These Gaels are one of the best shot-blocking teams in the nation, with those rejections coming from all over the place. No one averages more than 1.5 per game, but they block six shots a night as a team.

    Iona also routinely dominates the turnover battle, sitting at plus-107 for the season.

    And save for one disastrous night early in the season in which Hofstra shot 14-of-29 from downtown, the Gaels typically do an outstanding job defending the perimeter.

    There's also the whole, you know, Rick Pitino factor.

    He got the Gaels into the Dance in his first season at the helm in 2020-21, but that team wasn't actually good, committing way too many fouls and turnovers to be taken seriously as a Cinderella candidate.

    Now in Year 3 at Iona (and his 35th season as a collegiate head coach), Pitino has a legitimate threat to win at least one game—provided the Gaels can first survive the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament to secure a spot in the field.

Liberty Flames

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    Liberty's Darius McGhee
    Liberty's Darius McGheeMitchell Layton/Getty Images

    Liberty as a possible bracket-buster isn't a new concept.

    As a No. 12 seed in 2019, it knocked off No. 5 seed Mississippi State and gave No. 4 seed Virginia Tech a run for its money in the second round. The Flames were every bit as good the following year, winning 30 games before the season abruptly ended. And in 2021, the No. 13-seeded Flames gave Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State quite the first-round battle.

    As far as KenPom.com and the various predictive metrics are concerned, though, this year's version of Liberty is the best one yet.

    Led by fifth-year senior Darius McGhee, the Flames fire up three-pointers like there's no tomorrow. More than 50 percent of their field-goal attempts come from beyond the arc, and they make 37.7 percent of them. When they do venture inside for a change, they make around 58 percent of their two-point attempts.

    But it's actually the defense that makes these Flames better than their previous iterations.

    They did run into some serious defensive issues in their nonconference losses to Alabama (95-59) and Oral Roberts (84-70). However, this is the best defensive rebounding team in the nation, and one that makes opponents work like heck to get up a shot in the first place.

    If it all sounds very Virginia-like, well, that's the idea. Ritchie McKay left Liberty in 2009 after two seasons as the head coach to spend six years as Tony Bennett's associate head coach at UVA before returning to Lynchburg with a newfound appreciation for shot-clock violations and the pack-line defense.

    This is the first year the Flames have really started to embody the Cavaliers on that end of the floor, though, and it might pay big dividends.

Memphis Tigers

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    Memphis' Kendric Davis
    Memphis' Kendric DavisAP Photo/Sue Ogrocki

    If you like old rosters, my friend, you are going to love Memphis.

    All five of the leading scorers for the Tigers are fifth-year seniors. And of the 11 players to have scored at least one point this season, the only one who isn't a senior is redshirt freshman Johnathan Lawson.

    Quite the 180 from three seasons ago, when the 2019-20 Memphis Tigers had the fourth-most inexperienced roster in the country. But after flailing through that freshman-laden experiment, Penny Hardaway has gone all-in on veterans to try to salvage his job.

    Memphis' elderly dynamic duo is point guard Kendric Davis and big man DeAndre Williams, who average a combined 39 points, 12 rebounds, nine assists, four steals and one block per game. It's one of the most unstoppable tandems in the country, with both scoring in double figures in 23 of 26 games.

    In addition to having all of the experience and that great one-two punch, Memphis ranks among the best in the nation at making momentum-shifting plays on defense, averaging 9.0 steals and 4.5 blocks per game.

    That was also true last year, when the No. 9 seed Tigers almost pulled off a stunning upset of No. 1 seed Gonzaga.

    Whether Memphis will even dance this year remains to be seen. But given how terrible the bubble teams look, it's more likely than not the Tigers will sneak in and become a trendy Sweet 16 sleeper pick.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

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    Mississippi State's Shakeel Moore
    Mississippi State's Shakeel MooreAP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis

    Mississippi State is one of the worst shooting teams out there right now. The Bulldogs are sitting at 28.2 percent from three-point range and 63.8 percent from the free-throw line, both of which rank bottom 15 in the nation. As a result, they have been held to 70 points or fewer (in regulation) in 19 consecutive games.

    But if bubble-y MSU ultimately receives an invitation to the Dance, it will not be going down without a fight.

    At 59.3 points allowed per game, this is one of the stingiest defenses. Shakeel Moore is the best pilferer of the bunch, averaging 3.0 steals per 40 minutes played, but everyone on the roster has active hands, with 10 Bulldogs recording at least 10 steals to date.

    Mississippi State is also an above-average shot-blocking team. It might not look like it with just 3.6 rejections per game, but the Bulldogs play at a slow tempo and force opponents to settle for a lot of three-point attempts. In reality, blocking 3.6 shots per game while allowing only 30.9 two-point attempts per game is a top-60 block rate.

    And while most teams with a top-10 steal rate and a top-60 block rate tend to commit more than their fair share of fouls, MSU only allows 14.4 free-throw attempts per game, aggressively defending within the confines of the rulebook.

    Because of the Bulldogs' offensive shortcomings, a deep run is highly unlikely. But they could pull off an upset or two in low-scoring affairs.

Nevada Wolf Pack

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    Nevada's Kenan Blackshear
    Nevada's Kenan BlackshearJustin Fine/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

    In his coaching travels through Missouri State, Iowa, New Mexico, UCLA and now Nevada, Steve Alford's teams have generally done five things at an above-average level: share the rock, get to (and convert from) the free-throw line, limit turnovers, corral defensive rebounds and defend the paint.

    But this year's Wolf Pack team might be the best he has ever had at checking all of those boxes.

    The free throws, in particular, have been a huge strength. All seven of Nevada's active leading scorers (not counting K.J. Hymes, who's out injured) shoot at least 75 percent from the charity stripe, with both Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear getting there on a regular basis. As a team, they get better than 17 points from one-pointers per game, which ranks seventh in the nation.

    Nevada is also top-40 in the nation in turnover rate on offense, assist rate and defensive rebounding. And while there's not much shot-blocking, Nevada utilizes one of the taller rosters in the country to defend the paint to a respectable degree.

    Factor in the trio (Lucas, Blackshear and Will Baker) of players averaging better than 13 points per game and this is a well-rounded team that has become quite difficult to defeat.

    Nevada (20-7) did have some ugly recent losses to Boise State and UNLV in which they were uncharacteristically sloppy with turnovers. But the Wolf Pack are undefeated at home and typically at least put up a heck of a fight on the road, even if they do come up short more often than not. (They did win at New Mexico, though.)

    As things stand, Nevada is probably looking at a No. 9 seed. And if you're the type to pick at least one No. 1 seed to lose before the Sweet 16—since it has happened in four of the past five tournaments—Nevada might be the spot to take the gamble.

Northwestern State Bulldogs

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    Northwestern State's Ja'Monta Black
    Northwestern State's Ja'Monta BlackJohn E. Moore III/Getty Images

    What's the point of this article if we're not giving you at least one deep sleeper to pull off a stunner as a No. 15 or No. 16 seed, right?

    The projected champions of the Southland Conference are certainly in that vicinity.

    Northwestern State is nowhere near top 100 in any of the metrics and has suffered three bad Quadrant 4 losses already this season. The Demons will probably be able to avoid a play-in game, but the only way they get a No. 14 seed or better is if things go seriously haywire during conference tournament season, producing a ton of woeful automatic bids.

    But wherever it lands, Northwestern State is going to be a problem.

    The Demons have bad losses, yes, but they have gone 2-3 against the top two quadrants, including an incredible road win over TCU. Granted, the Horned Frogs were without both Damion Baugh and Mike Miles Jr. for that one, but NW State also put up respectable fights at both Baylor and Texas A&M.

    This is an undersized team. No one taller than 6'6" took the floor in their recent victories over Texas A&M-Commerce. So they might just get rebounded into oblivion during the first round of the Dance.

    However, the Demons force a ton of turnovers, and they have quite the PG/SG combo in DeMarcus Sharp and Ja'Monta Black.

    The former averages 18.2 points and 4.9 assists per game, doing the bulk of his damage from inside the arc. The latter has a permanent green light from downtown, making 36.9 percent of his 11 three-point attempts per game.

    If Black gets into a groove like he did against TCU (7-of-13) while the defense creates some run-out opportunities, the Demons could be this year's Cinderella story.

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles

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    Oral Roberts' Max Abmas
    Oral Roberts' Max AbmasSam Wasson/Getty Images

    Could lightning strike twice for Oral Roberts?

    In case you've somehow forgotten, the Golden Eagles made it to the Sweet 16 as a No. 15 seed two years ago, upsetting both Ohio State and Florida before almost knocking off Arkansas in the second weekend.

    That run came out of nowhere, though. Oral Roberts had darn near the worst defense among all teams that made the tournament, and I'd bet 98 percent of college basketball fans didn't even know how to pronounce Max Abmas' last name (ACE-miss) prior to that opener against the Buckeyes.

    This year, Oral Roberts actually profiles as one of the best mid-major teams in the country.

    The defense still isn't elite, but it is much improved. And the offense is absurdly potent, ranking top five in the nation in both effective field-goal percentage and turnover percentage.

    As previously mentioned, ORU put up 84 points in a win over Liberty. It also scored 70 in a close loss at Saint Mary's, which is more than the Gaels have allowed any other opponent to score in regulation this season. And since getting completely shut down in an 83-45 loss at Houston, the Golden Eagles have scored at least 73 points in 26 consecutive games.

    Yes, Abmas is still there in Tulsa, doing his thing. For the third straight season, he's averaging at least 22.8 points per game, doing so even more efficiently than usual this year.

    And this time, he has a pair of former SEC transfers by his side, with combo guard Issac McBride and 7'5" Connor Vanover each averaging better than a dozen points per game.

    While we're here, a quick mention that Oral Roberts is a legitimate threat for an at-large bid, if necessary. A loss next week at South Dakota or South Dakota State could change that, but the Golden Eagles presently have zero losses outside of Quad 1, and they rank top 45 in the NET.

    A competitive loss in the Summit title game might not be the end of the world—especially given the state of this year's bubble.

West Virginia Mountaineers

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    West Virginia's Tre Mitchell
    West Virginia's Tre MitchellJohn E. Moore III/Getty Images

    Of all the teams on this list, I'm least confident that West Virginia will actually make the tournament.

    The Mountaineers have already suffered 12 losses, and they have maybe the most difficult remaining schedule in the country, featuring road games against Kansas and Iowa State and home games against Kansas State and Oklahoma State. They could easily end up at 17-15 overall if they don't add any wins in the Big 12 tournament, which is a "First Four" record, at best.

    But if they do get in, I'm most confident that West Virginia would actually do some damage in the Dance.

    Since mid-January, the 'Eers have won home games against Iowa State, TCU, Auburn and Oklahoma, as well as a road game against Texas Tech. Good luck finding another double-digit seed with an entire season's list of wins that impressive, let alone just in the past five weeks.

    Also, good luck finding another double-digit seed that's a top-35 team according to KenPom, BPI and the NET. If WVU ends up as a No. 10 seed, it will likely be favored in the first round and, at worst, a three-point underdog against the unfortunate No. 2 seed who draws that straw.

    It's not pretty basketball, mind you. The average West Virginia game features a combined total of 45.3 free-throw attempts and 27.3 turnovers. When the 'Eers faced Portland State in the Phil Knight Invitational, the final tallies in those categories were a nauseating 66 and 41, respectively.

    But if you're not ready to get punched in the mouth for 40 minutes, well, you're probably going to lose to WVU. This is also one of the best offensive rebounding teams in the country, which—save for a recent blowout loss at Texas—keeps the Mountaineers at least within striking distance of just about every game.

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