Predicting the Biggest Winners and Losers of the 2023 NHL Trade Deadline

The NHL's March 3 trade deadline is less than two weeks away. There have already been seven trades since Jan. 1 with three deals involving notable players taking place over the past three weeks.

The first occurred Jan. 30 with the New York Islanders' acquisition of Bo Horvat from the Vancouver Canucks. On Feb. 9, the St. Louis Blues dealt Vladimir Tarasenko to the New York Rangers. The Blues made another big move Friday, trading Ryan O'Reilly to the Toronto Maple Leafs in a three-team deal involving the Minnesota Wild.

More significant trades are bound to occur in the days leading up to and including the deadline itself. Once the big day has passed, there will be the inevitable assessments by pundits and bloggers over which teams won or lost depending on the trades they made and the prices they paid.

Several notable stars, including the Chicago Blackhawks' Patrick Kane and the San Jose Sharks' Timo Meier, could change teams. Playoff contenders such as the Boston Bruins will be expected to bolster their rosters, while non-contenders such as the Montréal Canadiens will try to get the best possible returns.

Predicting the biggest winners and losers of the deadline isn't easy. We can only guess which teams will make the biggest splashes in the trade pool and which ones will come up short. Nevertheless, we gave it our best shot by examining the factors that could positively or negatively affect teams' efforts to improve.

We excluded the Islanders, Rangers and Maple Leafs, putting the focus instead on clubs that have yet to make big moves. Do you agree or disagree with our predictions? Let us know in the comment section below.

Mired near the bottom of the Western Conference, the Sharks are poised to miss the playoffs for the fourth straight season. However, first-year general manager Mike Grier is in a good position to make a move or two that could help them build for the future.

Winger Timo Meier was the top name in our February trade block big board. The 26-year-old is also set for restricted free agency, giving interested clubs an opportunity to re-sign him if Grier allows Meier's agent to speak with those teams.

Meier could bring a first-round pick, a high-quality prospect and a young NHL player to the Sharks. They could also get decent value for pending unrestricted free agents such as goaltender James Reimer and center Nick Bonino.

Superstar defenseman Erik Karlsson's name has also surfaced in trade rumors, though his expensive contract and no-movement clause make him difficult to move during a season with so many teams carrying limited cap space. The trade discussions Grier has regarding Karlsson, however, could lay the foundation for an offseason move.

Hired as general manager of the Canadiens in January 2022, Kent Hughes wasted little time establishing himself as a shrewd wheeler-dealer. Leading up to last season's trade deadline, he sent Tyler Toffoli to the Calgary Flames and Ben Chiarot to the Florida Panthers for returns that netted the rebuilding franchise two first-round picks.

Those deals—and Hughes' offseason move of Alexander Romanov to the Islanders for a first-rounder and flipping of that pick to Chicago for Kirby Dach—sparked anticipation among Canadiens fans leading up to this year's deadline. However, Hughes won't land significant returns with this crop of trade candidates.

On Thursday, TSN's Pierre LeBrun reported that injuries to their most marketable trade candidates—Sean Monahan and Joel Edmundson—have made teams "nervous" and "wary" about acquiring them. LeBrun added that there isn't much interest in winger Jonathan Drouin but that Evgenii Dadonov might draw attention from clubs that miss out on the top talent available.

Hughes has shown with previous deals that he won't make trades unless he gets what he wants. Given the situation, however, he will have to settle for considerably less this time.

Winnipeg Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff isn't usually one to make major moves at the trade deadline. His last big deadline acquisition was in 2019, when he landed Kevin Hayes from the Rangers. However, Cheveldayoff could feel this is the right time for a blockbuster.

The Jets are jockeying with the Dallas Stars for first place in the Central Division. Meanwhile, veteran core players Connor Hellebuyck, Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele have only one year remaining on their contracts. Center Pierre-Luc Dubois will be a restricted free agent this summer and is also a year away from unrestricted free agency.

This season could be the best opportunity for the Jets to stage a Stanley Cup run. A major move could also help Cheveldayoff provide incentive for Dubois to sign a long-term extension rather than look at testing next summer's market.

The Jets have $10.1 million in projected deadline cap space and promising prospects such as Ville Heinola, Brad Lambert and Elias Salomonsson. We expect Cheveldayoff will use those assets to pursue a notable player such as the Sharks' Timo Meier or perhaps Canucks winger Brock Boeser.

It's been a difficult season for Chicago. In the first year of rebuilding under general manager Kyle Davidson, the once-mighty franchise is stuck with the Anaheim Ducks and Columbus Blue Jackets at the bottom of the standings.

Longtime franchise players Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews are on expiring contracts. They were fixtures in the rumor mill, as it was assumed Davidson would peddle them for returns that could help with the roster rebuild.

Toews, however, has stepped away from the team because of the effects of long COVID and chronic inflammatory response syndrome.

Assuming Kane agrees to waive his no-movement clause, he might not garner a return of first-round draft picks, prospects or promising young NHL players. His production is down amid concerns over a hip injury.

Chicago could find takers for other trade candidates such as Max Domi, Jake McCabe, Andreas Athanasiou and Sam Lafferty. None of them, however, would bring back what a healthy and productive Kane and Toews could have.

Losing winger Max Pacioretty indefinitely because of a torn Achilles was significant for the Carolina Hurricanes. Though they'd played well during his earlier absence this season with the same injury, they had acquired the 34-year-old left winger in the summer to provide them with additional scoring punch in their quest for the Stanley Cup.

Placing Pacioretty and his $7 million salary-cap hit on long-term injury reserve, however, gave the Hurricanes $10.1 million in projected trade deadline cap space. They have the flexibility to pursue one or perhaps two trades to boost their roster down the stretch and into the playoffs.

On Feb. 14, TSN's Pierre LeBrun reported the Hurricanes had discussions with the Sharks regarding Timo Meier. LeBrun said they could be willing to acquire Meier without a contract extension being part of the deal. Meanwhile, Daily Faceoff's Matt Larkin listed the Hurricanes as a potential destination for Patrick Kane.

The Hurricanes haven't pursued big-ticket players in previous trade deadlines under general manager Don Waddell. With the club second in the standings this season, we predict Waddell will make a significant acquisition to help it contend for the Stanley Cup.

After they reached the Western Conference Final last season, expectations are high for the Edmonton Oilers this season. With superstars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl in their primes, general manager Ken Holland must be feeling the pressure to make a major move that pushes his club into Stanley Cup contention.

Salary-cap limitations, however, have turned the Oilers into what Holland called a "dollar in, dollar out" team during a Feb. 8 interview on Got Yer Back. In other words, whomever he brings in will require the clearing of cap space.

That hasn't stopped speculation linking the Oilers to big-name trade candidates. On Thursday, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported that Holland had checked on San Jose's Erik Karlsson and perhaps Chicago's Patrick Kane. With just $562,500 in projected deadline cap space, Holland would have to move significant salary to make a big splash.

Holland could consider an affordable option such as Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov ($2.8 million cap hit) or Arizona Coyotes blueliner Shayne Gostisbehere ($4.5 million) if the Coyotes retained half of his cap hit. Perhaps he could trade winger Jesse Puljujarvi and his $3 million cap hit. However, he won't get the major player who could help the Oilers win the Stanley Cup.

A rising force in the Eastern Conference after several years of rebuilding, the New Jersey Devils are poised to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2018. During a Jan. 26 interview with The Athletic's Pierre LeBrun, general manager Tom Fitzgerald said he'd like to add a top-six winger whose contract he can control beyond this season.

LeBrun noted Timo Meier fits that description. On Feb. 14, LeBrun reported that talks had increased between the Devils and Sharks but that the latter hadn't given Meier's agent permission to speak with interested teams about a contract extension. LeBrun also noted the Hurricanes were interested.

Meier was ranked No. 1 in our February trade block big board. With $2.9 million in projected deadline cap space, the Devils could ask the Sharks to retain half of Meier's $6 million cap hit or send a roster player to San Jose in the deal. They possess a deep prospect pool to draw on to make an enticing offer to the Sharks.

A skilled winger, Meier is on pace to exceed 70 points for the second straight season. He would be a great fit alongside a gifted young center such as Jack Hughes or Nico Hischier. Meier would provide the Devils with the additional scoring punch necessary for a long playoff run this season—and beyond, if they signed him to a contract extension.

Perched atop the standings for most of this season, the Bruins appear to be on track to win the Presidents' Trophy for the third time since 2014. That would also make them the favorites to win the Stanley Cup.

The Bruins have made big moves at previous trade deadlines, landing Taylor Hall and Hampus Lindholm over the last two years. On Saturday, Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman reported the Bruins were looking at Blue Jackets defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov and Coyotes rearguard Jakob Chychrun to boost the left side of their blue line.

However, Boston has only $1 million in projected deadline cap space. "The Bruins have to do some things to make this work," Friedman said. That could mean moving a salaried roster player or two. They could also ask the Blue Jackets or Coyotes to retain half of Gavrikov's or Chychrun's salary, but it could cost them a promising asset such as Fabian Lysell.

The Bruins could make a big move by the trade deadline, but we expect their cap constraints to force them to settle for a more affordable defenseman to address their blue-line need. They could also stand pat if the cost of an upgrade proves too expensive or would put their strong team chemistry at risk.

Stats accurate through Sunday and via NHL.com. Salary-cap info and line combinations via Cap Friendly.