Fresh NBA Playoff Predictions and Championship Odds

Here's hoping you've caught your breath following the surprisingly active and league-altering NBA trade deadline. Because now, with less than two months until the playoffs begin, it's time for a mad dash to the finish line of 2022-23.

That might take some by surprise, as the All-Star break often feels like the unofficial halfway point. But with teams looking at a remaining schedule of roughly 20 games each, now actually marks the beginning of the season's fourth quarter. That's right: It's basically crunch time.

Last year, we exclusively used FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR record projections to establish playoff seeds. That sapped some of the intrigue in predicting the final standings. This time around, we'll consult those numbers but also put more weight on gut instinct, non-RAPTOR team stats and health forecasts to set seeding and matchups. Given the parity that has defined this season, especially in the West, ditching the impartiality of catch-all projections could produce some wildly bad predictions.

But aren't stunts without safety nets more exciting?

From there, we'll take the real plunge by picking winners in each hypothetical postseason series until there's just one team, the 2023 NBA champ, left standing. FanDuel's title odds will provide context, but we won't let those decide anything on their own.

Most of these teams have been out of the Play-In running for a while now, though a few others will be disappointed to find themselves here. Before we get to the 20 teams that will play beyond the end of the regular season, we need to trim off the 10 headed for extended summers. Not that they're relevant, but FanDuel's title odds for this group are in parentheses.

Eastern Conference

11. Indiana Pacers (+50000)

12. Chicago Bulls (+24000)

13. Orlando Magic (+50000)

14. Charlotte Hornets (+50000)

15. Detroit Pistons (+50000)

Western Conference

11. Portland Trail Blazers (+49000)

12. Oklahoma City Thunder (+50000)

13. Utah Jazz (+49000)

14. San Antonio Spurs (+50000)

15. Houston Rockets (+50000)

Now that we've dispensed with the occupants of the high lottery, we can get down to the business of predicting actual playoff seeds. FanDuel title odds are in parentheses.

Eastern Conference

1. Boston Celtics (+280)

2. Milwaukee Bucks (+430)

3. Cleveland Cavaliers (+2600)

4. Philadelphia 76ers (+1300)

5. Miami Heat (+5500)

6. New York Knicks (+20000)

7. Brooklyn Nets (+13000)

8. Toronto Raptors (+16000)

9. Atlanta Hawks (+13000)

10. Washington Wizards (+50000)

Western Conference

1. Denver Nuggets (+750)

2. Memphis Grizzlies (+1700)

3. Phoenix Suns (+450)

4. Los Angeles Clippers (+1100)

5. Sacramento Kings (+13000)

6. Minnesota Timberwolves (+24000)

7. Golden State Warriors (+1900)

8. Dallas Mavericks (+1600)

9. Los Angeles Lakers (+5500)

10. New Orleans Pelicans (+6000)

(7) Brooklyn Nets vs. (8) Toronto Raptors

Despite featuring heavily in pre-deadline trade talk, Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., O.G. Anunoby and even Pascal Siakam remain with the Toronto Raptors. Rumored to be intrigued by subtraction, the Raps instead added talent. Old pal Jakob Poeltl is back to (hopefully) shore up the team's interior defense and rebounding.

Maybe it runs the risk of ignoring all the recent information that Toronto's flaws are real (see their 28-31 record before the break), but this was a 48-win outfit last season that still quietly has a positive point differential in 2022-23.

The Brooklyn Nets are exceptionally deep, and Mikal Bridges' quest to obliterate misconceptions about his role-player status continues apace. That said, the Nets' trades removed their star power and hurt their shot creation. Ben Simmons' unwillingness to shoot and apparent fear of the foul line could render him unusable, removing another playmaker to set up what's still a cadre of dangerous shooters.

The Raptors have been a disappointment, but much of this core has seen serious postseason competition and won't be bothered by the pressure of the moment. With Poeltl anchoring the middle, VanVleet looking more like himself and length all over the floor, Toronto feels surprisingly dangerous.

Prediction: Raptors

(9) Atlanta Hawks vs. (10) Washington Wizards

It's bizarre that Southeast Division occupants Atlanta and Washington haven't played each other yet this season, and it leaves us without any information on how Trae Young and Co. might attack the version of the Wizards that features Kristaps Porziņģis. Last year doesn't offer much guidance either, as the Hawks never faced KP in Washington then, nor did they have Dejounte Murray.

In terms of strategy, we could see a strength vs. strength setup here. The Hawks devote more possessions per game to plays finished by the pick-and-roll ball-handler than anyone else, and they're high on the list of possessions per game finished by the roll man, where they excel from an efficiency standpoint. Washington, though, is more than capable against those sets. The Wizards allow the third fewest points per possession to roll men, and they're hovering around the top 10 in points allowed per play to the ball-handler.

Though there are signs Washington can handle at least one aspect of Atlanta's attack, this just isn't a team that profiles as capable of holding up on D overall. The Hawks aren't going to put the clamps on anyone either, but the Wizards were 25th in defensive efficiency over the two weeks leading into the All-Star break. Throw in health concerns for Porziņģis and Bradley Beal, and the safer (though not comfortable at all) bet is a Hawks win.

Prediction: Hawks

(7) Brooklyn Nets vs. (9) Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks' success depends largely on Young and Dejounte Murray generating shots for themselves and a cast of mostly dependent supplementary scorers. Brooklyn's defensive length in the backcourt, on the wings and up front in the form of Nic Claxton will make it brutally difficult for Young and Murray to get comfortable.

Between Bridges, Simmons, Dorian Finney-Smith, Cam Johnson, Royce O'Neale and even Yuta Watanabe, Brooklyn can smother Atlanta's guards with wingspan and mobility. Claxton swallows up ball-handlers on switches as hungrily as any big man this side of Bam Adebayo.

On the other end, Spencer Dinwiddie and human flamethrower Cam Thomas should be able to get whatever they want when matchup-hunting for Young. Even Murray, though quick and dangerous in the passing lanes, will have his hands full.

Prediction: Nets

(7) Golden State Warriors vs. (8) Dallas Mavericks

The Warriors made short work of the Mavs in last year's Western Conference Finals, executing a gentleman's sweep on the strength of a 123.9 offensive rating. Luka Dončić is essentially unguardable, but Andrew Wiggins helped force him work for his 32.0 points per game on 55.8 percent true shooting.

Dallas had no answer for Jordan Poole in that series, and its decision to swap out Dorian Finney-Smith for Kyrie Irving leaves the roster in even shorter supply of capable defenders against him, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Wiggins.

Curry's health looms large. If he's not his absolute best self upon returning from injury, the Warriors shouldn't be favored to win this game. Not only that, but their odds of even landing one of the four play-in spots won't be high if Curry's rehab stretches too far into March.

Ultimately, assuming decent health, you have to pick the defending champs in a rematch of last season's one-sided Western Conference Finals. Golden State hasn't been the same team it was a year ago, but the matchup and history favor it to advance.

Prediction: Warriors

(9) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (10) Oklahoma City Thunder

Let's give the Thunder their flowers before we (spoiler) eliminate them.

Oklahoma City has the league's third-highest net rating since Jan. 1, trailing only the Denver Nuggets and Cleveland Cavaliers. You read that correctly.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander continues to make defenders look like they have two left feet, Jalen Williams is on a path to All-Star status and no one (no one!) has scored at a clip that matches OKC's over the past several weeks.

The Lakers don't care. They'll come into this matchup with a retooled starting five and more urgency to succeed than an Oklahoma City team that will still be able to claim a wildly successful season even if it loses to L.A. by 50. LeBron James and Anthony Davis have the size and experience to punish the Thunder inside, and they'll have more room to play bully ball with D'Angelo Russell and Malik Beasley spacing the floor.

The possibility of a close game down the stretch should terrify the Lakers, with clutch maestro SGA representing such a threat to take control of the proceedings. But Los Angeles' advantages in the size and experience departments are too significant to overlook.

Prediction: Lakers

(8) Dallas Mavericks vs. (9) Los Angeles Lakers

Who's excited for Luka and Kyrie against Lebron and AD, with the winner going home to stew on what'll be an utterly disastrous failure of a season?

Before making a pick, consider the fallout here. Dallas' elimination could increase the odds Irving will bolt in free agency, leaving Dončić with less help than he's had in years and limited paths to finding more. It's not an exaggeration to say the Mavs could confront an existential crisis if they lose. The Lakers aren't facing quite the same potential for upheaval, but it'd still prompt some very tough questions if James has to watch the playoffs as a spectator for the second successive year.

In the end, this one will come down to defense. Dallas doesn't have the personnel to handle James or Davis, a task made tougher by L.A.'s new shooting upgrades. The Mavs were a bottom-10 defense with Finney-Smith on the roster, and they'll almost certainly be worse from here until the end of the year. It's risky to bet against Dončić or Irving running hot enough to win this game on their own, but the Lakers allow 111.3 points per 100 possessions with AD on the court, a figure that would rank fourth overall across the full season. If he's in good form, the Mavs will be in trouble.

Prediction: Lakers

(1) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Brooklyn Nets

Boston's tidy 3-0 mark against Brooklyn this season includes a 139-96 drubbing on Feb. 1 in which the Celtics shot 57.6 percent from the field. Though the Nets have depth, the star-power vacuum created by the departures of Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving means we should expect at least a game or two in this series to look a lot like that early February blowout.

The Nets have the defensive wing depth to keep throwing fresh bodies at Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, which is why we're predicting they'll avoid a sweep. Maybe there's more room for upset optimism if Spencer Dinwiddie or Mikal Bridges catches fire, but it's not like the Celtics are short on shutdown options themselves.

Brooklyn's shot creators will be under immense pressure to win their matchups, pierce the paint and get the ball moving to shooters. With Boston deploying Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Robert Williams III alongside Tatum and Brown, there just won't be any soft spots for the Nets to attack.

Prediction: Celtics in five

(2) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (7) Toronto Raptors

The Raptors didn't embarrass themselves in their two losses to the Bucks earlier this year, with both defeats coming by single-digit margins. Theoretically, Toronto also has the collective length to barricade the paint against Giannis Antetokounmpo. One could even be convinced Jakob Poeltl will add a new backstop as the last line of defense, perhaps providing enough resistance to make this series interesting.

More likely, a Bucks defense that ranks third in location-based effective field-goal percentage—a stat that estimates what an average offense would shoot based on the types of looks surrendered—will stymie a Raptors attack that slots into the bottom five in shooting from every area of the floor other than at the rim. The only place Toronto has managed even a modicum of scoring efficiency is at point-blank range, which is the exact section of the court where the Bucks grade out as elite in both opponent accuracy and attempt frequency.

Framed more simply: Milwaukee can take away the only spot on the court where Toronto has had any scoring success.

Framed most simply: Milwaukee has Giannis, and he hasn't lost in the first round since 2018.

Prediction: Bucks in five

(3) Cleveland Cavaliers vs. (6) New York Knicks

The Cavs have been one of the league's best teams all year, but their surge since Feb. 1 has as much to do with a soft schedule as anything else. Cleveland reeled off a blowout-laden 7-0 start to the month by racking up several lopsided wins against the likes of Indiana, Washington, Detroit, Chicago and San Antonio.

However, the Knicks were victorious in two of the their three meetings with Cleveland earlier this year.

The Cavs' overall body of work should still make them favorites, but this has the potential to be a high-variance series. The Knicks defense surrenders the third-most three-point attempts per game but has survived thanks to opponents shooting the fifth-worst percentage in the league on those looks. It's generally accepted that a defense doesn't have much control over how well opponents shoot from deep (limiting attempts is more important), but if the Knicks' run of luck on that end continues, a couple of cold Cavs shooting nights could swing this series in the lower seed's favor. An upset would add an intriguing dimension to the whole Donovan Mitchell saga.

New York's offense (sixth) actually ranks ahead of Cleveland's (ninth), but the gap in defensive quality is the real determining factor here. The Cavs are tied for second on D, while the Knicks, even with the benefit of unsustainably cold opponent three-point shooting, are 18th. It's easy to imagine Mitchell and Darius Garland exploding for huge scoring nights that put this series away early, while it's tougher to envision Jalen Brunson and Julius Randle creating enough quality looks against the length of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.

Prediction: Cavs in six

(4) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Miami Heat

Time for some tough talk: The Heat simply don't have a playoff-caliber offense. They rank 25th in scoring efficiency on the year and aren't exactly on the upswing lately, sitting at No. 22 in the two-week span just before the All-Star break. Though the Sixers have benefited from even colder opponent three-point shooting than the Knicks, Miami doesn't seem capable of regressing that 34.0 percent hit rate to the mean. The Heat are hitting just 33.4 percent of their treys—third lowest in the league.

There's also the small matter of Miami trying to corral a rampaging Joel Embiid with one of the smallest lineups around. Adebayo is a brilliant switch defender but falls well short of Embiid (as do most) in the heft department. The Heat will throw plenty of double teams at Philly's behemoth in the middle, but their frequent use of three- and four-guard looks won't present enough length to force turnovers from Embiid, who'll be able to pass over the top of Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry and even Caleb Martin.

Jimmy Butler's sheer force of will has powered the Heat to deep playoff runs before, but he has less support this year, and the Sixers have surrounded the deadly James Harden-Embiid pick-and-roll with ample shooting.

Maybe the Heat can drag the Sixers to seven games if Butler goes off again while Harden continues his trend of fizzling in big moments. It's more likely, though, that Philadelphia's size and superior offense will limit the Heat to one or two wins before this one concludes.

Prediction: Sixers in six

(1) Denver Nuggets vs. (8) Los Angeles Lakers

Trailblazing shooting and a 2011 championship make up most of the first paragraph of Dirk Nowitzki's career bio, but everyone still remembers the awkwardness of him accepting the 2006-07 MVP award after falling in the first round to the "We Believe" Warriors. Imagine the narratives that'd arise if Nikola Jokić were to bow out in the first round to LeBron James and the Lakers in what'll likely be his third straight MVP campaign.

We'd get multiple news cycles out of discussing the boost to James' legacy alone, to say nothing of the shade everyone would throw at Jokić, who'd (fairly or not) come to symbolize the difference between "best player" and MVP.

Note, too, the Lakers are 2-2 against Denver this year, and Jokić played in all four games. The Lakers' path to a playoff spot is anything but certain, so the odds of this matchup materializing are long. But if you see anyone predicting an L.A. upset, don't dismiss it out of hand.

We can't get quite that dramatic here, as Jokić and the Nuggets have been so much better over the course of the season than the Lakers who, again, are probably long shots to even advance this far. Denver has earned the top seed, the home-court advantage that comes with it and the benefit of the doubt. The revamped Lakers look dangerous, but the health outlook for their best players is questionable, and it remains to be seen if the theoretical improvement of the post-deadline roster shows up in practice.

Prediction: Nuggets in seven

(2) Memphis Grizzlies vs. (7) Golden State Warriors

It's upset time—if a defending champion knocking off a team it has owned for the past 18 months even qualifies for that label.

Like the Lakers, the Warriors will have their work cut out to even get this far. But if the matchups align as we're predicting, the stage will be set for yet another edition of the Dubs going all "big brother" on a Grizzlies team that has talked a big game but failed to back it up.

Golden State bounced the Grizz in last year's conference semifinals and has beaten them twice this year, once with Stephen Curry in the lineup and once without. Memphis' dependence on transition chances and offensive rebounds make it vulnerable in a slowed-down and better-scouted playoff series, and the Warriors will come into this meeting with a laughably huge edge in experience. None of it will matter if Curry isn't healthy, but the Grizzlies would likewise be dead in the water if Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. or even Desmond Bane were at less than full strength.

The Warriors have struggled to find and sustain last year's level, but they've come closest to it in their meetings with Memphis, a team they clearly relish beating.

Prediction: Warriors in six

(3) Phoenix Suns vs. (6) Minnesota Timberwolves

Even the most optimistic analysis of the Rudy Gobert experiment had to acknowledge that the benefits of adding the three-time DPOY would show up more strongly in the regular season. His track record of falling short in the playoffs against skilled small-ball looks and heavier doses of matchup-hunting pick-and-rolls was always the greater concern.

For Gobert and the Wolves, this Suns team is an absolute matchup nightmare.

Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Chris Paul will gladly take the pull-up threes and mid-range jumpers Gobert's drop coverage permits, and it's oh so easy to imagine the Suns cooking when Karl-Anthony Towns has to guard in space. Mike Conley has lost a step or two defensively as well, and Phoenix should be able to produce loads of easy looks when involving him in screening action with either Minnesota big man.

Anthony Edwards will have an undeniably great night or two, but Phoenix's firepower will be too much for him to overcome on his own. If you think the Suns are the quiet favorite to make it out of the West, then this is a series they have to win handily.

Prediction: Suns in five

(4) Los Angeles Clippers vs. (5) Sacramento Kings

The rationale for picking the Clippers in a walkover series win doesn't have to focus on the Kings so clearly fitting the "just happy to be here" bill.

Los Angeles has vastly superior star power and deep playoff experience with Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, lineup options to drag Domantas Sabonis out to the perimeter and the kind of suffocating defense that always matters in the postseason. Those factors, along with Sacramento's No. 23 defense and Los Angeles' plus-8.5 net rating with Leonard in the game, only further up the odds of a short series that ends in the Clips' favor.

Circling back, the Kings will also have to overcome the satisfaction attached to ending the longest active playoff drought in the NBA. Sure, they'll say they have bigger goals and work to avoid complacency. But this season will be a massive success for the Kings regardless of what happens in the first round; fans are going to rejoice the moment Sacramento secures an 83rd game. It'll be hard to come into this series with a mental edge against a Clippers team that knows it needs to win several rounds to validate itself.

Prediction: Clippers in four

(1) Boston Celtics vs. (4) Philadelphia 76ers

Dating back to last season, the Celtics have come away with wins in four of their six most recent meetings with Philadelphia, including the past three in a row. It should concern the Sixers that Jayson Tatum was largely quiet across that sample, topping out at 35 points in a 126-117 win on Oct. 18 but also scoring 20 or fewer points three other times.

Boston might be on a six-game winning streak against Philadelphia if Tatum had played to his typical averages.

Even if Philly's perimeter defense has challenges to throw at him and Jaylen Brown that it didn't last season—D'Anthony Melton, P.J. Tucker and deadline acquisition Jalen McDaniels—it's not a great sign that Boston has had so much recent success with its best player on cruise control. Nor was it a promising omen when the Celtics knocked off the Sixers just a couple of weeks ago, despite the absence of Al Horford, Robert Williams III and Marcus Smart. That was also the game Brown had to leave with a facial fracture, which resulted in Philly relentlessly trapping Tatum, the lone remaining starter.

Boston's capacity to win any game on the strength of its shooting shone through in that 106-99 triumph, as Tatum coolly passed out of double teams and combined with his support staff to drain 19 of their 35 long-distance tries. Philadelphia's defense has enjoyed cold shooting from opposing teams all year, but Boston is basically a walking reminder that surrendering too many deep shots is a good way to lose—even when the opponent is undermanned. The Celtics attempt the second-most threes in the league and hit them at a 37.8 percent clip, which is tied for fifth.

Joel Embiid will be a problem, regardless of which Boston big men are healthy. But Philadelphia's preference for isolation play (No. 2 in frequency leaguewide) and hitting the roll man (No. 1 in frequency) could set it up to fail against a Celtics defense equipped with frontcourt defenders who can survive in space on switches and guards with the strength to hold out until help arrives against Embiid in the mid-post.

The Celtics basically don't play any exploitable defenders, while Philly will give major minutes to James Harden, a human traffic cone, and Tyrese Maxey, who has quietly done even more damage on D, slotting below Harden in defensive estimated plus/minus and defensive box plus/minus.

If Embiid goes on a rampage against a championship-worthy opponent for an entire playoff series, it'll swing this in favor of the Sixers. This is the part where we also have to note that if he does pull that off, it'll be the first time in his career. For the Celtics to win, they simply need to attack Philadelphia's defensive weak points, hit threes at respectable rates and bask in the fact that they, unlike the Sixers, don't have an obvious flaw to exploit.

Now, will somebody please turn the dial up to 10 on the "Harden to Houston" rumors?

Prediction: Celtics in seven

(2) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (3) Cleveland Cavaliers

Giannis Antetokounmpo is a handful for every defense, but he's been particularly tough on the Cavs this year. His averages of 33.0 points, 11.7 rebounds and 6.0 assists on 59.6 percent true shooting against Cleveland aren't all that far off from his full-season figures, but his on-off split is plus-13.9 points per 100 possessions. The Detroit Pistons, who are actively disinterested in winning, are the only team he's been tougher on over at least three games this season.

From Cleveland's perspective, the nature of Antetokounmpo's dominance is the problem. His 41 free-throw attempts across three games owe to the lack of bulk in the Cavs' frontcourt. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are huge reasons the Cavs have established themselves as one of the best defenses in the league, but the willowy duo's mobility and timing don't help much in the wall-building effort necessary to slow the two-time MVP. One shoulder to the sternum is all it'll take for Giannis to blast Allen and/or Mobley into the third row. It won't matter that Antetokounmpo is a 64.6 percent free-throw shooter if he gets 15 attempts while putting Cleveland's most important defenders in foul trouble every night.

Whichever of Darius Garland or Donovan Mitchell is lucky enough to avoid having Jrue Holiday stitched into his jersey will have to seize every offensive opportunity. Of course, blowing by Khris Middleton or Grayson Allen will only expose the Cleveland guards to Antetokounmpo's out-of-nowhere help rotations and Brook Lopez's "access denied" rim protection.

The Cavs' best hope is a low-percentage play. Only the Warriors and Celtics force opponents to attempt more mid-rangers than the Bucks, and those looks will be available. Cleveland is, unfortunately, only 17th in mid-range accuracy.

Mitchell will pop for at least one 40-point night, and Garland might lead the team in scoring if Holiday is otherwise occupied. But the Bucks are going to bully their way to victory.

Prediction: Bucks in five

(1) Denver Nuggets vs. (4) Los Angeles Clippers

Kawhi Leonard has only played in two of the four games between these teams this year, both of which resulted in Clippers losses. And yet, it's still hard to discount the possibility of him controlling this series in a way that reminds everyone of his long history of postseason brilliance. Leonard has averaged at least 27.0 points on better than 50.0 percent shooting in three of the past four postseason series he's played, though it's notable that the one outlier in that set (24.3 points on 44.2 percent shooting) came in a seven-game loss to Denver in the 2020 bubble.

Aaron Gordon, Bruce Brown Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will have their defensive work cut out for them if Leonard and George are both healthy. Though the Clippers' overall offensive rating underwhelms, they're in the top 10 since Jan. 10 despite a road-heavy schedule. Jokić will have to prove he can survive an entire series in which his defensive mobility will be tested at every turn.

The Clippers' glut of forwards and wings should make it easier for them to switch off the ball, possibly short-circuiting a Denver attack heavy on miscommunication-causing movement and cuts. Then again, given multiple games against the same tactics, Nikola Jokić will figure out where the weak points are. Eventually, the Nuggets are going to find ways to score.

In the end, Jokić figures to present problems for the Clippers that'll swing the result in Denver's favor. His ability to pull Ivica Zubac away from the basket should create opportunities for Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Gordon to score. If the Clips go small and hope to switch, Jokić will calmly station himself in the post and pick them apart. We may see games where he goes for 40 points and shoots 15 free throws interspersed with ones in which he attempts single-digit field goals and slings a dozen assists. The Clippers can pick their poison, but Jokić will administer deadly doses of whichever one they choose.

Prediction: Nuggets in seven

(3) Phoenix Suns vs. (7) Golden State Warriors

Picking Golden State to win this series would be an act of blind faith. The Warriors have played a sloppy brand of .500 ball all year, with long stretches marred by lazy defense, too many fouls and not nearly enough focus on either end. It's not ridiculous to argue this team has a higher gear, but that assertion depends entirely on evidence from before this season.

Phoenix is also a bit of a wild card. We haven't yet seen Devin Booker and Kevin Durant play together, but it's difficult to imagine these two offensive savants failing to develop instant chemistry.

Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II (if healthy) and Draymond Green give the Warriors exceedingly strong options to deploy against those two, even if Wiggins has rarely approached the level of defense he exhibited in the 2022 playoffs.

Somehow, amid myriad injuries, the Suns have defended at a top-10 clip this season. They're even sneakily effective at forcing turnovers, which should set off alarms for the Warriors, who cough up the ball more often than anyone but the comically chaotic Houston Rockets. Throw in the question marks attached to Curry's health following a highly unusual injury to his left lower leg, and the Suns profile as the safer bet.

It was fun while it lasted, but the Warriors' run has to end here.

Prediction: Suns in six

(1) Boston Celtics vs. (2) Milwaukee Bucks

One would imagine the Celtics trying to combat the pile-driving force of Giannis Antetokounmpo with lineups featuring as much length and size as possible. Then again, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Al Horford and Robert Williams III have only played 71 possessions together all year, and that group didn't start the Dec. 25 matchup against Milwaukee. Williams, only three games into the injury-delayed start of his season at that point, saw just under 14 minutes of action.

Boston's entire starting five missed the only other meeting with the Bucks, a 131-125 overtime loss on Feb. 14. No good information there, either.

We got seven games in last year's Eastern Conference semifinals to analyze these teams, but Khris Middleton wasn't involved in that series because of injury. That augurs well for the Bucks, who came within a hair's breadth of eliminating Boston without the three-time All-Star. Health has been an issue for Middleton throughout this season, and his three-ball (28.9 percent) isn't falling. But he's looked progressively better while working his way back to full strength in a bench role and averaged 18.2 points in only 22.3 minutes through his first five February contests. His return, plus the addition of Jae Crowder, could be enough to offset the Celtics' own offseason upgrade, sixth-man short-lister Malcolm Brogdon.

It's very often a mistake to pick a team that hasn't been to the mountaintop over one that has, and Milwaukee's 2021 championship gives it clout Boston lacks. Antetokounmpo could literally combust with competitive energy; his greatness could control this series in a way that renders every other angle of study irrelevant. Guys like him sometimes make predictions simple: The team with the best player wins.

We're going with Boston anyway. It feels like it's time for this group to break through after advancing at least as far as the conference finals in four of the past six postseasons. Tatum is ready to hit the final stage of his superstar development, and the injury issues (don't forget Antetokounmpo's recent wrist injury in addition to Middleton's various maladies) chip away ever so slightly at Milwaukee's chances.

Boston is going back to the Finals.

Prediction: Celtics in seven

(1) Denver Nuggets vs. (3) Phoenix Suns

In some ways, forecasting this series is pure guesswork. We haven't seen Kevin Durant play with the Suns yet. The uncertainty of his fit and health are impossible to ignore. Weighed against a mostly healthy Nuggets team whose top lineup (plus-15.6 points per 100 possessions) has played 876 possessions together, this is a true clash of unknown and known.

Consider, though, that Phoenix lineups that include Chris Paul, Devin Booker and Deandre Ayton (without Mikal Bridges or Cam Johnson) own a striking plus-19.0 net rating across 141 possessions. It's a small sample but not, you know, nothing. Add Durant to that trio, find a fifth guy to join them and Phoenix seems awfully dangerous if its best players are healthy.

Jamal Murray was out when Phoenix swept the Nuggets in the 2021 West semifinals, so there's a bit of an asterisk on that series. Nikola Jokić's struggles in those four games should still be a point of concern. He shot 47.7 percent from the field, his worst hit rate in any of the eight postseason series he's played, and got himself ejected after a reckless swipe caught Cameron Payne in the face with just under four minutes left in the third quarter of Game 4.

That 2021 Phoenix team feasted in the mid-range against Denver, and it'll surely do the same with Durant joining Paul and Booker. The Nuggets have tried to mix their coverages and make the best of Jokić's iffy mobility on D, but they remain a middling outfit on that end. The Suns are going to get the two-point jumpers they want, and there's a real chance they run hot enough to force adjustments that open up opportunities at the basket and from deep. Denver can't take everything away—not with Durant involved.

Lastly, Ayton has had a mostly disappointing season and conspicuously no-showed in the 2022 playoffs. He's enjoyed success against Jokić throughout his career, though, and is averaging 18.9 points and 11.6 boards across 14 matchups. If the Suns get anything close to that level of production from their mercurial center, Denver will be in trouble.

Prediction: Suns in six

(1) Boston Celtics vs. (3) Phoenix Suns

As far as obstructions to set up against Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Chris Paul, you can't do much better than Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Derrick White and Malcolm Brogdon. Additionally, Robert Williams III will be lurking in the corner, assigned to the Suns' least threatening shooter, waiting to swoop in and erase close-range attempts if the perimeter fortitude fails.

So while Phoenix's theoretical offensive excellence has been key to it advancing this far in our projections, it feels most likely that defense is going to determine this year's champion. Boston has the bodies, the scheme and the track record to foster belief that it can slow the Suns, while the reverse is harder to imagine.

That said, the Celtics have a yearslong habit of self-destruction on offense. If they get stagnant or turn the ball over 15.1 percent of the time like they did against the Warriors in the 2022 Finals, Phoenix could capitalize. Surely Boston won't be quite so careless with the rock in this series; the turnover rate it posted against the Dubs last year would be 25th in the league this season. Anything in the neighborhood of their 13.3 percent figure this year, which ranks as the sixth-best in the league, would be fine.

Another potential pivot point: three-point shooting. Boston fires off 42.2 triple tries per game, representing the second most in the league behind only the Warriors. Phoenix lags well behind at 32.6 deep attempts per contest, with the caveat that we haven't seen Durant with the team yet. Both teams shoot an identical 37.8 percent on threes, so the 10-attempt-gap may help the Celtics win the math game. All of the Suns' scorching two-point pull-up shooting may mean nothing if Boston can get up so many extra long-range shots.

Phoenix's season high in made threes is just 22, and it has cracked 20 makes just four times. Boston has four games with at least 24 made triples and has hit at least 20 a dozen times. Speculatively, the Suns will have to consistently shoot a much higher percentage overall to keep pace. That's an uphill battle they may not be able to win, especially if the theory holds true that Boston's defense is significantly stouter.

Durant and/or Booker could go supernova, and the Celtics haven't proven that they can close the deal yet. This will be a high-level, competitive series. But in addition to edges in shot profile and defensive integrity, it just feels like it's time for Tatum and Boston to finally crest the hill.

Prediction: Celtics in six

Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Feb. 21. Salary info via Spotrac.

Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.

21+ and present in AZ, CO, CT, IA, IL, IN, KS, LA (permitted parishes only), MD, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, VA, WV, or WY. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MI, NJ, PA, IL, TN, VA), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700, or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), visit www.mdgamblinghelp.org (MD), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), 1-800-522-4700 (WY), or visit www.1800gambler.net (WV).