The Trade
Jets get: Nino Niederreiter
Predators get: 2024 second-round pick
Dom Luszczyszyn: It’s pretty astonishing that a player as useful as Nino Niederreiter — one who is cost-controlled for another season — could only fetch a second-round pick for the Nashville Predators. Cap space remains the great equalizer in what remains a flat-cap world and even though Niederreiter is worth his $4 million cap hit, that’s still not a completely easy sum to swallow.
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In Niederreiter, the Jets are getting a very efficient second-line scorer, one who goes to the net hard and creates chances. He’s not much of a passer, but he can put the puck in the net. This season, his 1.16 goals-per-60 at five-on-five ranked second to only Filip Forsberg on the Predators and 39th league-wide.
That alone makes this a tidy piece of business for a second rounder, but Niederreiter’s game stretches further than that. For most of his career, Niederreiter has been an analytics darling due to his ability to drive play, and that has remained the case over the last three seasons. In that span, his teams have earned an expected goal differential that’s 0.45 per 60 higher with Niederreiter on the ice, and an actual goal difference that’s higher by half-a-goal per 60. His slant is offence, but his numbers are useful without the puck as well where he has a positive impact on both expected and actual goals against. His impacts have been consistent every season too — even after signing with Nashville — which makes him a safer bet to maintain his impact on a new club.
Niedereiter isn’t the missing piece that makes the Jets the team to beat in the West or the top-line stud some of his underlying numbers make him out to be. But he is a nice addition who really strengthens the team’s top nine, creating more depth after the top six. He also adds insurance over the next two months with Cole Perfetti out with injury, and the extra year on his deal means he’s not a rental either. It’s not the sexiest addition, but from Winnipeg’s end, there really isn’t anything to complain about here.
That’s especially true given the cost which seems incredibly low for a bonafide top-six player. Perhaps it’s a testament to the market and what player-types it values, but it still feels like Nashville should’ve received more in this one — especially given the extra year on Niederreiter’s deal. This is a clear win for the Jets and a clear disappointment for the Predators.
Predators grade: C+
Jets grade: A
Sean Gentille: For a trade involving a second-round pick and one non-marquee name — Niederreiter is a good player and a valuable meme, but a big fish he is not — this one is seriously consequential. He’d have been a fallback plan for the losers in the dual Patrick Kane and Timo Meier sweepstakes. Now, as Kane-to-the-Rangers chugs along and Meier’s own process plays out, Mr. Fuel/Fire/etc. is off the market.
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Winnipeg had kicked around on the periphery of the Meier discussions, and they made sense as an option there; if they didn’t have a contract extension in hand, they’d have likely been able to pick up his one-season qualifying offer for 2024-25 and tried to sell him on being a core piece of the next phase of the franchise. Beyond that, though, they’re toward the top of a crowded Western Conference, and they needed an extra forward or two to help distinguish themselves. The need was only magnified with Cole Perfetti’s injury.
In Niederreiter, they got one. He’s been a reliable goal scorer for the last several years (86th overall since 2017-18), and he’s on pace to hit 30 for the first time. Mason Appleton is Winnipeg’s current top-line right winger with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor. Niederreiter will fix that problem and make the Jets’ depth chart look a lot more like that of a top-tier contender. They’re still thin, but the situation is a lot more workable now than it was on Saturday morning. If Meier wasn’t an option, this is a solid Plan B. The West is winnable for several teams, and the Jets are one of them.
The Predators aren’t — and they, too, need to deal with that bit of reality. The win-now roster David Poile built was mainly theoretical; there’s no point in going all in on a group that woke up Saturday with an 18-percent chance at making the postseason. Niederreiter, because of his productivity and contract, was one of their most movable pieces. Now, Poile’s attention should turn to selling off any player he can — because as is, the mix is not working.
It’s an interesting signal flare to fire off as we enter the final week. Could Matt Duchene replace Niederreiter as a Kane-Meier contingency plan? He carries an $8 million AAV through 2026. What would offers for Tanner Jeannot look like? He’s the sort of playoff-ready wrecking ball that playoff GMs fantasize about. Mikael Granlund? Mattias Ekholm? There are parts on that roster, even though the end product isn’t relevant. If we could give extra credit for injecting some narrative-shifting fun into the deadline, Nashville would get some. Alas, that is not part of the assignment. The return is fine — Niederreiter wasn’t a first option for a reason — but not overwhelming; he brought them the same return as Garnet Hathaway did for the Caps.
Predators grade: B-
Jets grade: A
(Photo: John Russell / NHLI via Getty Images)