Sleeper Picks for Every Major 2023 Men's CBB Conference Tournament

David KenyonFeatured Columnist IVMarch 4, 2023

Sleeper Picks for Every Major 2023 Men's CBB Conference Tournament

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    Tyree Appleby
    Tyree ApplebySamuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

    The chaos of March begins in conference tournaments, where bid thieves provide a dose of lovable anarchy as men's college basketball nears the NCAA tournament.

    Every so often, a high-major program pulls off a shocking run to secure an automatic bid. Two recent examples include 2017 Michigan and 2011 UConn, which held No. 8 and 9 seeds, respectively, before winning their leagues and heading to the Big Dance.

    Given that I recently predicted each conference tournament champion, ideally these sleeper picks will not be correct. But there's no doubt I will be wrong on several of those previous choices.

    This, after all, is March.

    Note: All teams are projected to land a fifth seed or worse for their league tournaments.

AAC: Wichita State Shockers

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    Jaykwon Walton
    Jaykwon WaltonPeter G. Aiken/Getty Images

    If a surprise happens in the American, perhaps it's because the program avoided top-ranked Houston as long as possible.

    Wichita State, which is 8-9 in conference games, may find itself on the opposite side of the bracket. If the Shockers beat South Florida in the regular-season finale, they'll be the sixth seed.

    The likely first-round opponent would be Tulsa, which Wichita State has defeated twice. From there, the chalk matchups will likely be Tulane and Memphis. Although the Shockers only earned one victory in four combined matchups, they were highly competitive in each game.

    Wichita State's perimeter efficiency has been disastrous for much of the season. However, the Shockers have efficiently hit 10 threes in two of the last four contests. If that continues, they'll suddenly be a threat.

ACC: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

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    Tyree Appleby and Damari Monsanto
    Tyree Appleby and Damari MonsantoAP Photo/Chuck Burton

    Wake Forest just never dies.

    All season, the Demon Deacons have played in close games. Even in losses, they've hit enough shots from the perimeter to worry opposing fans until the result is evident. Wake Forest is 33rd nationally in three-point attempt rate and connects at the 43rd-best clip.

    If this offense—led by star playmaker Tyree Appleby—catches fire, Wake might just navigate the entire ACC tourney.

    Since the league lacks a dominant team, no particular seed is worrying. But if Duke ends up climbing to a No. 3 seed behind Virginia, Wake Forest could have an especially appealing path as the No. 8 seed.

Atlantic 10: George Mason Patriots

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    Josh Oduro
    Josh OduroG Fiume/Getty Images

    Ah, the classic "peaking at the right time" conversation.

    Entering its regular-season finale, George Mason has ripped off five consecutive wins. Most recently, the Patriots edged both Dayton and Fordham—a couple of potential top-three seeds in the A-10 tournament.

    George Mason's main strength is the perimeter, ranking 80th in three-point percentage offensively and 27th in three-point defense. Opponents have hit a comically low 27.2 percent of long-range attempts during this winning streak, which has vaulted Mason out of having to play in the first round of the A-10 tournament.

    Top-seeded VCU's resume is a bit flimsy, but it could get an at-large bid without winning the conference tournament. That means a surprise A-10 champion such as George Mason could become a bid thief.

Big 12: Texas Tech Red Raiders

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    Fardaws Aimaq
    Fardaws AimaqJohn E. Moore III/Getty Images

    Do I believe in Texas Tech? No, I do not. However, that opinion must be balanced with two topics.

    First, the Big 12 is really freaking good. Six of the league's 10 teams are projected top-six NCAA seeds in the latest Bracket Matrix update, so it's not like TCU winning the conference tournament would be a surprise.

    Second, the remainder of the league is sketchy. Oklahoma is a non-starter, while Oklahoma State has dropped five straight games and West Virginia isn't exactly high on my list of trusted teams.

    That leaves us with Texas Tech. On the bright side, the Red Raiders have played a ton of competitive games since a blowout loss to Baylor in early February. They knocked off Kansas State and Texas as part of a four-game winning streak before close setbacks to TCU and Kansas.

    Not coincidentally, Tech started to surge when forward Fardaws Aimaq returned to the lineup in mid-February. If the Red Raiders make a run, it's fair to expect Aimaq played a key role.

Big East: Villanova Wildcats

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    PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - FEBRUARY 25: Justin Moore #5 of the Villanova Wildcats looks on during the first half against the Creighton Bluejays at Wells Fargo Center on February 25, 2023 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images)
    Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images

    If you regularly watch Big East basketball, Villanova isn't a sneaky pick. Looking at the standings, though, you might suspect the power program is just having a subpar year.

    But the Wildcats are finally healthy.

    Key guard Justin Moore missed the first 20 games as he recovered from last season's Achilles injury. Jordan Longino also sat for a month because of a hamstring injury. In six contests since Moore and Longino returned in mid-February, Villanova is 5-1 with victories over potential top-five NCAA seeds Xavier and Creighton.

    As usual, the Cats are heavily dependent on three-pointers. Unlike past seasons, Nova hasn't been efficient from the perimeter and ranks 226th in long-range percentage at 33.6.

    They have, however, buried 40-plus percent of triples in three of the last six outings with Moore and Longino back in the lineup.

Big Ten: Penn State Nittany Lions

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    Jalen Pickett
    Jalen PickettJustin Casterline/Getty Images

    The final day of the regular season is loaded with an incredible fight for the second to ninth seeds. Indiana, Illinois and Northwestern could land anywhere in that range, for example.

    Penn State hasn't locked in a specific seed, although the Nittany Lions cannot rise any higher than 10th. No matter where they officially wind up, they'll be respected for their perimeter prowess.

    Seth Lundy and Andrew Funk both attempt 6.5-plus threes per game and sport a 40 percent clip or better. Star guard Jalen Pickett, Myles Dread and Camren Wynter are all effective three-point shooters who combine for 10.4 long-range attempts per night.

    The problem is that quintet basically comprises the entirety of Penn State's scoring threats. But if they're on a collective hot streak, the Nittany Lions will be tough to eliminate.

Mountain West: New Mexico Lobos

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    Jamal Mashburn Jr.
    Jamal Mashburn Jr.Sam Wasson/Getty Images

    New Mexico's reality is clear: Without a Mountain West tournament title, an invite to the Big Dance won't happen.

    After winning the first 14 games, the Lobos entered February holding a quality 19-3 record. But they've dropped seven of the last nine contests and will be seeded sixth in the MWC tourney.

    Despite that string of poor results, the lingering—and admittedly tepid—reason for optimism is New Mexico has stuck with likely NCAA-bound conference foes San Diego State, Boise State and Nevada in this stretch. All three losses were by five points or fewer.

    Jamal Mashburn Jr., Jaelen House and Morris Udeze headline an offense that is ranked 20th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric.

Pac-12: Washington State Cougars

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    Mouhamed Gueye
    Mouhamed GueyeChris Gardner/Getty Images

    There are worse ways to enter a conference tournament than on a six-game winning streak.

    How's that for hard-hitting analysis?

    Sure, the schedule hasn't been particularly strenuous. Washington State's best victory in this stretch happened at home against Oregon, which is trending toward missing a second NCAA tournament in a row.

    Earlier this season, though, the Cougs toppled both Arizona and USC. As of now, they—in opposite order—would be Washington State's first two opponents in the Pac-12 tourney.

    At the very least, Wazzu won't be lacking confidence as it enters a win-or-go-home postseason.

SEC: Arkansas Razorbacks

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    Nick Smith Jr.
    Nick Smith Jr.Wesley Hitt/Getty Images

    Since the conference is loaded with feisty defenses, it'll take a pretty incredible effort to survive the SEC gauntlet.

    Vanderbilt recently lost center Liam Robbins for the season. Missouri isn't reliable defensively, and Auburn's offense is prone to disappearing. Mississippi State has the worst three-point percentage in the nation, and Florida has been sliding for a month.

    Consider this, then, a bet on Arkansas' talent.

    Now that Nick Smith Jr. is healthy, the Razorbacks have four 10-point scorers with a reasonably deep rotation. The offense's efficiency can wane, but Arkansas boasts KenPom's 11th-rated defense.

    If the Hogs make a run in the SEC tourney, they'll probably avoid the 8/9 matchup in March Madness, too.

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