Men's NCAA Tournament 2023: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams

The 2022-23 men's college basketball regular season is over. Yet, with nothing but Championship Week standing between us and Selection Sunday, the bubble for the NCAA tournament feels as crowded as it has in months.

On the plus side of the equation, you've got teams like Vanderbilt, Utah State and a bunch of mid-majors finishing strongly and playing their way into the mix for a bid.

On the other side, though, are the likes of Providence, NC State and Nevada, stumbling to the finish line and re-entering the bubble conversation after seemingly sitting pretty for single-digit seeds just a week or two ago.

Before we touch on all the big movers, first a note that we're not going to talk about every team on the bubble.

Most notable among the omissions from this conversation are Mississippi State and North Carolina. The former got a home win over Texas A&M and suffered a road loss to Vanderbilt. The latter added a home win over Virginia and a home loss to Duke. The net result for both squads is basically no change—the Bulldogs remain just barely in; the Tar Heels remain slightly out.

We're more interested in the movers and shakers whose case for a bid has changed considerably over the past 10 days. (Our previous Bubble Stock Watch ran the morning of Feb. 25, so we'll focus on results since then.)

Teams are presented in no particular order, outside of oscillating between Stock Up and Stock Down.

Resume: 18-13, NET: 25, RES: 31.0, QUAL: 20.0

Since Feb. 24: L at Kansas, W at Iowa State, W vs. Kansas State

For West Virginia, it was never a question of metrics. The Mountaineers have not ranked 30th or worse on KenPom since November, and have also spent most of the season comfortably in the top 30 in the NET. The resume metrics (KPI and SOR) weren't quite as enamored with WVU, but it was ranked 35th in both heading into Saturday's win over Kansas State.

It was really just a question of whether the sheer volume of losses would become too great to overcome.

Heading into the final week of the regular season, the 'Eers were 16-13 overall. A split with Iowa State and Kansas State would have brought them to 17-14 in advance of the Big 12 tournament. At that point, a first-round loss to Texas Tech probably would have left them on the outside looking in.

But that scenario is no longer in play, as WVU swept the Cyclones and the Wildcats behind a combined 50 points from Erik Stevenson.

The Mountaineers now have nine wins (in 22 tries) against the top 1.5 Quads with nothing close to a bad loss on the resume.

Not only are they going to be in the field on Selection Sunday, but they're most likely going to earn a single-digit seed.

Resume: 21-10, NET: 51, RES: 50.5, QUAL: 40.0

Since Feb. 24: W at Georgetown, L vs. Xavier, L vs. Seton Hall

Providence started the season 15-0 at home, and it would have been in the field with plenty of room to spare if it had continued to take care of business in "The Dunk" for a 17-0 finish.

Instead, the Friars never led in the home loss to Xavier and they got run out of their own gym on senior night by a Seton Hall team playing without point guard Kadary Richmond.

Now they're in bubble trouble.

Providence has three great wins over Connecticut, Marquette and Creighton. But they all came at home, those are the Friars' only wins over projected tournament teams and they now have three losses (vs. Seton Hall, at St. John's, Saint Louis on a neutral court) against teams unlikely to dance.

Whether Providence makes the tournament might boil down to how the selection committee views the season sweep of Villanova.

It doesn't look great from a NET perspective, but both of those wins came with Justin Moore playing for the Wildcats, since which time they have been a much better, tournament-caliber team.

However, if that doesn't get some "bonus consideration," if you will, and if the Friars immediately lose to Connecticut in the Big East tournament, they might miss the cut.

Resume: 28-3, NET: 15, RES: 29.0, QUAL: 39.3

Since Feb. 24: W vs. UTEP, W at Rice, W at Louisiana Tech

Taken individually, there was nothing special about Florida Atlantic's last three wins. The UTEP victory falls into Quad 4, while the two road wins are both firmly in Quad 3.

But for a team that had been on a tightrope walk to a possible at-large bid, the collective impact of those non-losses was gigantic.

Florida Atlantic will now enter the C-USA tournament with a 2-1 record against Quad 1 and a 3-2 record against Quad 2 with no Quad 3 or Quad 4 losses.

The lack of wins (or even games played) against NCAA tournament teams is hard to ignore, but even more so is the overall strength of the resume.

The NET has been in love with FAU all season long, and the Owls finally cracked into the top 30 on KenPom a few days ago. Throw in the strong result-based metrics, and there's just no way the Owls are going to miss the dance—provided they can maintain that "no terrible losses" profile.

They'll open the C-USA tournament with a quarterfinal game against the winner of FIU vs. Western Kentucky. And so long as the Owls can survive that game, they should be in the NCAA tournament.

But maybe they'll remove all drama by just securing the automatic bid.

Resume: 19-12, NET: 18, RES: 34.0, QUAL: 18.7

Since Feb. 24: L at Alabama, L at Tennessee, L vs. Kentucky

Arkansas has most likely done enough to get in, but it did just whiff on three major chances to seal the deal.

The Razorbacks led by double digits at Alabama before letting that one slip away. At Tennessee, the Volunteers lost Zakai Zeigler to a torn ACL early in the first half, but the Hogs failed to capitalize, losing that one by an 18-point margin. And then in the finale at home against a Kentucky team playing without both of its point guards (Cason Wallace and Sahvir Wheeler), Arkansas yet again squandered a golden opportunity.

The predictive metrics still adore this team, which had a 15-point road win over Kentucky, home wins over Texas A&M and Missouri and a neutral-site victory over San Diego State. Not many bubble teams can boast that list of accomplishments.

But at just 5-11 overall against the top 1.5 Quads with a bad loss at LSU sprinkled in there, Arkansas fans best not be holding their breath for an overall seed on par with the NET or KenPom rankings.

Conference record/standing isn't supposed to matter, but Arkansas finished 8-10 in SEC play and will be the No. 10 seed in that conference tournament. If the Hogs lose their opener against Auburn, things officially get a little dicey. They're already arguably on the No. 10 seed line, and that could leave them vulnerable to a trip to the NIT.

Resume: 18-13, NET: 82, RES: 46.0, QUAL: 78.3

Since Feb. 24: W vs. Florida, W at Kentucky, W vs. Mississippi State

I'll be honest: I left the Commodores for dead after their Feb. 22 loss to LSU.

They entered that game as an intriguing bubble team on a five-game winning streak that included home victories over Tennessee and Auburn. However, that bad loss to the Tigers felt like the final straw for a team that had dug itself a gigantic hole with a 10-12 start to the season—including a terrible home loss to Grambling State.

But after consecutive wins over Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi State, Vanderbilt is right back on the bubble.

The NET and predictive metrics are ugly, but the result-based metrics have grown rock solid, as the Commodores do have a nice stockpile of quality wins, featuring six against the projected field: Tennessee, at Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State and Pittsburgh. The 'Dores also swept Florida, which isn't going to be a tournament team, but that's another Quad 1 and Quad 2 victory for the mantle.

It's probably not quite enough for a bid right now, but guess who's waiting for Vanderbilt in the SEC quarterfinals?

So long as the Commodores survive their opener against the Georgia/LSU winner, they'll get another crack at Kentucky. And a second win away from home against the Wildcats would be very difficult to overlook.

That said, making a deep run in the SEC tournament inexplicably was not enough to get Texas A&M off the bubble last year, so who knows how much good winning that Friday night game against UK would actually do? Vandy might need that auto-bid, especially if there are bid thieves in other leagues.

Resume: 21-10, NET: 50, RES: 59.5, QUAL: 69.0

Since Feb. 24: L vs. San Diego State, W vs. Fresno State, L at Colorado State

One important note before we dive in and pile on the Lobos is that recency bias is not supposed to be a factor.

Yes, there's still the inescapable, proverbial eye test, but the record in the last 10/last 12 games is no longer a data point on the team sheets. Results in February might as well have happened in November, and vice versa.

However, in losing eight of its past 11 games, New Mexico has undone all of the good from its 17-2 start and has likely entered "Auto Bid or Bust" territory.

The road wins over Saint Mary's and San Diego State still count, and count for a lot. The home wins over Boise State, Oral Roberts and Iona also still count. But now they are juxtaposed with five bad losses, the most recent of which came in the season finale against Colorado State on a night where the Rams simply couldn't miss.

The real dagger, though, was the prior loss to San Diego State. New Mexico led by double digits in the second half and scored five late points to re-gain the lead with six seconds remaining. But SDSU's Lamont Butler hit a buzzer-beating three to likely send the Lobos to the NIT.

Here's the potentially good news, though: As the No. 6 seed in the Mountain West tournament, New Mexico could add a pair of quality wins over No. 3 seed Utah State and No. 2 seed Boise State before a close championship game loss to San Diego State or Nevada to considerably enhance their at-large case.

If the Lobos don't at least make it to the MWC semis, though, there's not much of an argument for a bid.

Resume: 24-7, NET: 21, RES: 26.0, QUAL: 38.3

Since Feb. 24: W at UNLV, W vs. Boise State

I think I speak for all bracketologists when I say that Utah State has been the most annoying resume of the 2022-23 season.

The Aggies suffered two terrible losses in the span of five days back in mid-December, losing at home to Weber State before dropping a game against SMU in the Diamond Head Classic in Hawai'i. Those two Quad 4 losses juxtaposed with what was a zero in the Quad 1 wins column for most of the season have been tough to stomach.

But thanks to a phenomenal record in Quads 2 and 3—20-1 with 17 of those victories coming by a margin of nine points or greater—the metrics have basically mandated that we perpetually keep Utah State no worse than First Five Out in our projections.

So, there the Aggies hovered heading into the final week of the regular season in advance of a dominant finish.

They went on the road and demolished UNLV by 25, which never happens at the Thomas & Mack Center. Then they came back home and smoked Boise State in a game that was never even close in the final 25 minutes.

We constantly talk in Quads, but it doesn't matter whether that home win over the Broncos appears as a low Quad 1 or high Quad 2 win on the resume by Selection Sunday. It was USU's best win of the entire season, and arguably vaulted them into the field.

If the MWC bracket plays to form, there will be another Boise State-Utah State showdown in the semifinals. Sure feels like the type of game where the winner will be safely in the field while the loser will be sweating until Sunday night. I believe both will be dancing, though.

Resume: 22-9, NET: 41, RES: 39.0, QUAL: 45.7

Since Feb. 24: L vs. Clemson, L at Duke

Since the Valentine's Day road loss to Syracuse, NC State's resume has come under a lot of scrutiny.

And getting boat-raced by Clemson did not help matters in the slightest.

The Wolfpack did win their home games against Duke, Miami and North Carolina, but what else is there?

The best win away from home was at Virginia Tech—during the four-game stretch in which Hunter Cattoor was out for the Hokies. And the best nonconference win was either the neutral-site game against Dayton or Vanderbilt, both of which reside in the bottom half of Quad 2.

NC State doesn't have any truly terrible resume losses, but if the Tar Heels don't make the tournament, you're talking about just two wins over the field and five losses outside of it: at Syracuse, at UNC, vs. Pittsburgh and swept by Clemson.

Not a great ratio there.

And while the metrics are mostly fine, NC State is nowhere close to "teams with those numbers almost always get in" territory. In fact, NC State knows all too well that the best NET to miss the dance was the Wolfpack in 2019 when ranked 33rd.

If they lose their ACC tournament opener against either Virginia Tech or Notre Dame, they might be toast. But even a win in that game and a subsequent win over Clemson in the quarterfinals might still leave NC State dangling on the bubble.

Resume: 22-9, NET: 44, RES: 35.5, QUAL: 40.0

Since Feb. 24: W at Utah, L vs. Arizona, W vs. Arizona State

Getting the home win over Arizona would have been a major feather in the cap for a team lacking in wins over the projected field.

But to secure their spot in the dance, all the Trojans really needed to do was take care of business against both Utah and Arizona State, which they did.

Both games were rock fights. Utah matched a season-low with 49 points, and Arizona State shot 29.2 field goal percentage and 21.4 percent beyond the arc. The Sun Devils also might have had a season-worst scoring effort were it not for their 20 offensive rebounds.

That's USC's M.O., though. 7'1" freshman Vincent Iwuchukwu didn't play against Arizona State, but he, Joshua Morgan and Kijani Wright have been great rim-protectors, when healthy. They completely shut down UCLA's potent two-point offense in that huge win in late January.

If beating the Sun Devils Saturday night knocked ASU out of the field (we suspect it did), USC now has just two wins against the field: home games against UCLA and Auburn. Meanwhile, the Trojans suffered terrible losses to Florida Gulf Coast and Oregon State as well as not-great losses to Wisconsin, Washington State and Oregon.

But because of the season sweeps of Arizona State, Colorado and Utah, USC's overall resume is in a good place.

The only scenario where things could get dicey for the Trojans is if Pac-12 No. 11 seed Oregon State upsets Arizona State in the first round and then also knocks off USC. Short of that disaster, USC figures to at least give the Pac-12 a third team in the dance.

Resume: 22-9, NET: 38, RES: 37.5, QUAL: 62.7

Since Feb. 24: L at Wyoming, L vs. UNLV

To reiterate a previous point made in regard to New Mexico, recency bias shouldn't factor into the selection process.

But Nevada sure did pick a terrible time to suffer its two worst losses of the entire season.

Heading into this week, the Wolf Pack seemed to be in excellent shape for a bid. Had they won the Monday night game at what was an 8-20 Wyoming team, they were going to be the No. 33 overall seed (top No. 9 seed) in my Tuesday morning bracket projection.

But that bad loss to the Cowboys immediately dropped them down to the bottom of the No. 10 seed line, and the subsequent overtime home loss to UNLV possibly knocked them out of the field altogether.

Nevada had previously handled itself quite well in MWC play, sweeping New Mexico and winning the home games against San Diego State, Boise State and Utah State. But New Mexico probably isn't dancing, Utah State is on the bubble and the Wolf Pack suffered five losses to non-tournament teams—road games against Wyoming, Loyola Marymount and Oregon and a sweep at the hands of UNLV.

As with NC State, the metrics are fine, but that is decidedly not a great ratio, especially when you've got teams like Penn State, Wisconsin and Oklahoma State jockeying for bids, each with at least four wins against likely tournament teams.

Resume: 19-12, NET: 57, RES: 50.5, QUAL: 50.0

Since Feb. 24: L vs. Rutgers, W at Northwestern, W vs. Maryland

Heading into the Feb. 14 game against Illinois, I said Penn State was going to need to finish 5-1 to make things interesting.

And make things interesting the Nittany Lions have.

Though they did blow a 19-point second-half lead in the home loss to Rutgers, they won three games against NCAA tournament teams (Illinois, Northwestern and Maryland) and picked up a road win over Ohio State that still looks impressive on the resume with the Buckeyes somehow comfortably in the NET Top 75.

With their bubble hopes hanging in the balance, Penn State trailed for almost the entire game at Northwestern but clawed back to force overtime and won it on a Camren Wynter three-pointer with one second remaining in the extra session.

Four days later against Maryland, the Nittany Lions trailed by 15 points with 12 minutes remaining, but they chipped away and chipped away until Wynter was once again able to play hero via a go-ahead tip-in with less than a second left on the clock.

Penn State now has six wins against the projected field and nary a loss outside the NET top 100. When all the metrics refresh on Monday, the Nittany Lions are going to be top 50 or close to it across the board.

If they're in the field at the moment, it's by a razor-thin margin. But a third win over Illinois in their first game in the Big Ten tournament would likely seal the deal.

Resume: 18-13, NET: 37, RES: 51.5, QUAL: 32.0

Since Feb. 24: W at Penn State, L at Minnesota, L vs. Northwestern

It's wild how quickly things can change on the bubble.

When Rutgers beat Penn State in the last weekend of February, it felt like the clincher for the Scarlet Knights and possibly the final nail in the coffin for the Nittany Lions. But while PSU has rallied for two impressive victories, Rutgers responded with a horrendous bottom-of-Q3 loss at 8-21 Minnesota and a Q2 loss to Northwestern.

Rutgers does have a nice stockpile of solid wins. If we assume both Penn State and Wisconsin are in the field, that puts the Scarlet Knights at eight wins over teams who will be dancing.

But where last year's Rutgers had five wins against the top half of Quad 1 to make up for having a ton of losses and more than a few bad ones, this year's Rutgers just has the road win over Purdue.

Granted, that's a massive win. It may well be an effective tiebreaker if we end up debating between Rutgers and a few other bubble teams for the final spot or two in the field.

Unfortunately, though, Rutgers also has three Quad 3 losses, plus the questionable, couldn't-make-a-bucket-to-save-its-life, Quad 2 home losses to Michigan and Seton Hall. And if recency bias factors into the equation, there's no question this has not been the same team since losing Mawot Mag to a torn ACL in early February.

Rutgers will draw Michigan in the second round of the Big Ten tournament for the right to face Purdue in the quarters. That reeks of a "loser goes to the NIT" game, but even a win over the Wolverines might not be enough to get the Scarlet Knights in at this point. A second victory over Purdue may be necessary.