Buying or Selling MLB's Most Surprising Spring Training Teams and Players

Zachary D. RymerMarch 8, 2023

Buying or Selling MLB's Most Surprising Spring Training Teams and Players

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    Noah Syndergaard is pitching like an ace again.
    Noah Syndergaard is pitching like an ace again.AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

    Somebody find out which way the wind is blowing, because we're about to throw some caution into it and draw conclusions from the early portion of Major League Baseball's spring training season.

    We sought to play a game of "Buy or Sell" with some of the more surprising—both pleasantly and, well, less than pleasantly—individual stat lines and team records coming out of Florida's Grapefruit League and Arizona's Cactus League. Do they actually portend anything for the 2023 season? Or is it all just burger made of nothing?

    If you're expecting to read anything about Jordan Walker, Corbin Carroll, Zac Veen and other standout prospects, you can stop right now. That discussion will happen, but it's one for another day.

    Let's touch on eight individual players before wrapping up with four teams.

Is Jarred Kelenic Ready for a Post-Hype Breakout?

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    Seattle Mariners' Jarred Kelenic watches his solo home run during the second inning of a spring training baseball game against the Kansas City Royals Sunday, Feb. 26, 2023, in Surprise, Ariz. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)
    AP Photo/Charlie Riedel

    Age: 23

    2022 Stats: 54 G, 181 PA, 7 HR, 5 SB, .141 AVG, .221 OBP, .313 SLG

    2023 Spring Stats: 6 G, 17 PA, 4 HR, 0 SB, .412 AVG, .412 OBP, 1.118 SLG


    The zenith of Jarred Kelenic's rapid rise through the minor leagues was precisely two years ago. He went into the 2021 season ranked by MLB.com as the fourth-best prospect in baseball, even ahead of Julio Rodríguez.

    Chances are you have some idea of how that panned out. Or, more accurately, didn't pan. Kelenic has gotten into 147 games with the Seattle Mariners over the last two seasons only to produce a Jason Heyward-ian 66 OPS+.

    To go from that to leading the spring in home runs makes for quite the reversal of fortune for the Wisconsin native. And the notion that it's being fueled by adjustments to his swing mechanics has merit. He's made some truly loud contact in compiling his numbers, including on the most recent of his four long balls:

    Seattle Mariners @Mariners

    .<a href="https://twitter.com/jarredkelenic?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@jarredkelenic</a> just cleared the batter's eye 😳 <a href="https://t.co/TjhjcCa5dR">pic.twitter.com/TjhjcCa5dR</a>

    You'll also notice that Kelenic hit that moonshot off Devin Williams, the star closer for the Milwaukee Brewers. That speaks to the kind the competition Kelenic has faced this spring, for which Baseball Reference puts the "Opponent Quality" score on the high end of 8.4. The median for hitters who've taken at least 15 plate appearances is 7.4.

    Verdict: Buy

Is Alec Bohm a Power Hitter Now?

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    BRADENTON, FL - FEBRUARY 27: Philadelphia Phillies Outfielder Brandon Marsh (16) congratulates third baseman Alec Bohm (28) on his home run during the spring training game between the Philadelphia Phillies and the Pittsburgh Pirates on February 27, 2023, at LECOM Park in Bradenton, FL. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
    Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

    Age: 26

    2022 Stats: 152 G, 631 PA, 13 HR, 2 SB, .280 AVG, .315 OBP, .398 SLG

    2023 Spring Stats: 7 G, 21 PA, 3 HR, 0 SB, .350 AVG, .381 OBP, .850 SLG


    It's not as if he's Myles Straw or anything, but power hasn't big as big a part of Alec Bohm's game as it is for most guys in his position. Among 21 third basemen who've taken at least 1,000 plate appearances since 2020, he ranks 18th in slugging.

    Well, don't look now, but the Philadelphia Phillies youngster seems determined to change that in 2023. Thanks mostly to those three home runs, Bohm's 17 total bases for the spring tie him for sixth with Freddie Freeman and Andre Lipcius.

    Philadelphia Phillies @Phillies

    Ball Go Boom Pt. 1 by Alec Bohm <a href="https://t.co/KMYhgfb6MK">pic.twitter.com/KMYhgfb6MK</a>

    Bohm put up an expected slugging percentage in the 73rd percentile last season, so the potential for power was there even as he hit just 13 home runs. And after an offseason spent putting on additional bulk, he's now even more solidly built than his listed size of 6'5", 218 pounds indicates.

    And yet, hitting for power is as much about a hitter's approach. That's where Bohm has been held back in the past, as he's preferred to use the whole field with a batted ball profile that's been heavier on ground balls and line drives than on fly balls. This only makes it easier to believe him when he says he's not about to start trying to "pull the ball and hit homers."

    Verdict: Sell

Is Max Fried a Strikeout Machine Now?

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    ATLANTA, GA - OCTOBER 11: Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried (54) delivers a pitch during Game 1 of the NLDS between the Atlanta Braves and the Philadephia Phillies on October 11, 2022 at Truist Park in Atlanta, Georgia.  (Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
    David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

    Age: 29

    2022 Stats: 30 G, 30 GS, 185.1 IP, 156 H (12 HR), 170 K, 32 BB, 2.48 ERA

    2023 Spring Stats: 2 G, 2 GS, 5.0 IP, 3 H (0 HR), 9 K, 2 BB, 0.00 ERA


    Even as he's established himself as one of the best-starting pitchers in baseball, Max Fried hasn't been much of a strikeout artist. To wit, he's racked up 29 fewer punchouts than innings pitched over his last three seasons.

    It, therefore, catches the eye that Atlanta's ace left-hander has finished with more strikeouts than innings pitched in each of his first two assignments of the spring. And it seems legit, as Foolish Baseball noted that Fried is getting called and swinging strikes with the best of 'em:

    Foolish Baseball @FoolishBB

    Highest CSW% (Called Strikes + Whiffs) in Spring Training through 3/5 (min. 40 pitches)<br><br>CIN Ian Gibaut - 62.2%<br>TEX Cole Ragans - 58.1%<br>ATL Max Fried - 58.1%<br>KCR Josh Staumont - 57.5%<br>SDP Nick Martinez - 57.1%<br>TEX Glenn Otto - 51.1%<br>NYY Matt Krook - 51.1%

    Because it came via a pitch timer violation, one of Fried's strikeouts nonetheless must be taken with a grain of salt. As demonstrated by how he faced a Minnesota Twins lineup that didn't have Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton, Jorge Polanco or Joey Gallo on Saturday, he's also had the benefit of easy competition by way of an Opponent Quality score of 7.2.

    It also doesn't seem as if Fried is doing anything differently this spring, as there haven't been any reports of increased velocity or new pitches. He should still be a Cy Young contender this way, but probably not in the mold of the next coming of Randy Johnson.

    Verdict: Sell

Is Noah Syndergaard Back?

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    Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Noah Syndergaard throws a pitch against the Cincinnati Reds during the fourth inning of a spring training baseball game Tuesday, Feb. 28, 2023, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
    AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

    Age: 30

    2022 Stats: 25 G, 24 GS, 134.2 IP, 138 H (14 HR), 95 K, 31 BB, 3.94 ERA

    2023 Spring Stats: 2 G, 1 GS, 5.0 IP, 1 H (0 HR), 4 K, 0 BB, 0.00 ERA


    Meanwhile in Los Angeles Dodgers camp, Noah Syndergaard is looking to reclaim an ace reputation that's gone missing since he was an All-Star and a receiver of Cy Young Award votes in 2016.

    It's a good sign, then, that "Thor" has been nearly flawless in his two outings for the Dodgers this spring. He's faced 16 batters and retired all but one of them, all while facing more difficult competition (i.e., an Opponent Quality of 7.7) than Fried has with Atlanta.

    Los Angeles Dodgers @Dodgers

    Three perfect innings with 2 Ks for <a href="https://twitter.com/Noahsyndergaard?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@Noahsyndergaard</a> in his first <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DodgersST?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#DodgersST</a> start. <a href="https://t.co/hrcOUScEAK">pic.twitter.com/hrcOUScEAK</a>

    The big catch is that the 6'6", 242-pounder's fastball is still nothing like the triple-digit terror he had at the outset of his career. He sat between 91-94 mph his last time out on Monday, or precisely where he was amid his unspectacular 2022 season.

    True, there is some intrigue to be found in how Dodgers starters put up a league-best 2.75 ERA last season even as their average heater checked out at 92.9 mph. But that had a lot to do with their guys getting the most out of nasty secondary offerings. Because neither his slider nor his changeup really stood out in 2022, that Syndergaard has even one of those to leverage for better results in 2023 is not something to take for granted just yet.

    Verdict: Sell

Is J.D. Martinez Officially Over the Hill?

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    Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter J.D. Martinez tosses his bat away after earning a walk against the Los Angeles Angels during the second inning of a spring training baseball game Friday, March 3, 2023, in Tempe, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)
    AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin

    Age: 35

    2022 Stats: 139 G, 596 PA, 16 HR, 0 SB, .274 AVG, .341 OBP, .448 SLG

    2023 Spring Stats: 7 G, 20 PA, 0 HR, 0 SB, .111 AVG, .200 OBP, .111 SLG


    Speaking of name-brand veterans looking for fresh starts with the Dodgers, they've already committed to J.D. Martinez as their full-time designated hitter for 2023. Ideally, he'll revert back to the guy who averaged a 152 OPS+ and 34 home runs between 2014 and 2019.

    That Martinez isn't off to the best start naturally raises the question of how worried the Dodgers should be. Will he merely be the guy who put up a more modest 116 OPS+ across the last three seasons? Can they even count on that much.

    The list of reasons to press the panic button isn't entirely empty. Martinez's Opponent Quality score of 6.9 doesn't exactly redeem his spring struggles. And given that his decline in recent years mirrored that of his contact quality, that he's only struck out five times arguably isn't a silver lining either.

    But then there's the big reason to give Martinez the benefit of the doubt: quiet springs are nothing out of the ordinary for him. He's raised his OPS from the spring to the regular season in five of the last six seasons, and by an average of 279 points to boot. That's not a fading star. That's a guy who needs the bright lights.

    Verdict: Sell

Is Jo Adell Even More Lost?

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    SEATTLE, WA - FEBRUARY 25: Jo Adell #7 of the Los Angeles Angels hits a home run during the game between the Los Angeles Angels and the Seattle Mariners at T-Mobile Park on Saturday, February 25, 2023 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Adam Glanzman/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
    Adam Glanzman/MLB Photos via Getty Images

    Age: 23

    2022 Stats: 88 G, 285 PA, 8 HR, 4 SB, .224 AVG, .264 OBP, .373 SLG

    2023 Stats: 9 G, 24 PA, 1 HR, 1 SB, .182 AVG, .250 OBP, .364 SLG


    Anyone who read The Athletic's Sam Blum's report on Jo Adell on Feb. 26 would have come away feeling enthusiastic about his chances of helping the Los Angeles Angels a lot more than he did as he put up a 70 OPS+ in 161 games for them between 2020 and 2022.

    Did he come into camp in the best shape of his life? Check. Did he make adjustments to his swing? Also, check. Was he working one-on-one with Albert Pujols? Also-also, check.

    Yet despite all this, Adell is looking no closer to realizing the immense hype that accompanied him when he was MLB.com's No. 6 prospect going into 2020. It's alarming that he's struck out 12 times in 24 plate appearances, and that much more so in context of how he's done so against pitchers who account for a pedestrian 7.3 Opponent Quality score.

    It could be that Adell is simply getting used to his new swing mechanics, but it's also possible that those mechanics aren't right for him. His switch to a leg lift from more of a toe tap has made his load more exaggerated. If he can't get the timing right consistently, his already bad problem with fastballs (both in terms of whiffs and production) could conceivably get worse.

    Verdict: Buy

Should the Yankees be Worried About Luis Severino?

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    TAMPA, FL - MARCH 04: New York Yankees pitcher Luis Severino (40) delivers a pitch to the plate during the spring training game between the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees on March 04, 2023 at George M. Steinbrenner Field in Tampa, FL. (Photo by Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
    Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

    Age: 29

    2022 Stats: 19 G, 19 GS, 102.0 IP, 72 H (14 HR), 112 K, 30 BB, 3.18 ERA

    2023 Spring Stats: 2 G, 2 GS, 4.2 IP, 5 H (3 HR), 7 K, 2 BB, 13.50 ERA


    The New York Yankees' starting pitching depth was looking solid as of a few weeks ago, but then Frankie Montas had shoulder surgery and Nestor Cortes strained his hamstring.

    The Yankees are thus in a position where they can ill afford any more bad pitching news. Luis Severino's struggles would seem to count, especially given that he hasn't exactly been disadvantaged vis-à-vis his Opponent Quality of 7.3.

    But even setting aside the positive that Severino is at least healthy, still another positive is that his stuff has looked pretty good. His fastball has touched the high 90s and he's broken off some nasty breaking stuff as he's earned six non-timer-related strikeouts.

    Rob Friedman @PitchingNinja

    Luis Severino's 2 1st Inning Ks. <a href="https://t.co/xAhw8EMmGd">pic.twitter.com/xAhw8EMmGd</a>

    As for the three home runs Severino has given up, two appeared to get help from strong winds in a contest between the Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays on March 4 that saw a total of 24 runs scored. The Yankees should thus still feel confident in him as their No. 3 behind Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón.

    Verdict: Sell

Did the Marlins Make a Mistake with Johnny Cueto?

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    Miami Marlins pitcher Johnny Cueto walks between fields during spring training baseball practice Sunday, Feb. 19, 2023, in Jupiter, Fla. (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)
    AP Photo/Jeff Roberson

    Age: 37

    2022 Stats: 25 G, 24 GS, 158.1 IP, 161 H (15 HR), 102 K, 33 BB, 3.35 ERA

    2023 Spring Stats: 2 G, 2 GS, 3.2 IP, 11 H (2 HR), 2 K, 1 BB, 27.00 ERA


    The Miami Marlins seemed destined to trade an arm for a bat this winter, and even more so after they further added to their depth when they signed Johnny Cueto in January. Not long after that, there went Pablo López to the Minnesota Twins for Luis Arraez.

    Cut to now, and the inherent risk of this gambit is that much more evident after Cueto's first two outings. He's been tagged for at least five hits and five runs in both of them, with four of the runs coming home on big blasts by St. Louis Cardinals superstar Nolan Arenado and top prospect Jordan Walker.

    St. Louis Cardinals @Cardinals

    Jordan Walker would like to introduce himself! <a href="https://t.co/zhPiBZPMhG">pic.twitter.com/zhPiBZPMhG</a>

    The silver lining here is that, like Martinez, it's not unusual for Cueto to struggle in spring training. He has a 5.41 ERA in the spring for his career, compared to a 3.44 ERA for the regular season.

    That Cueto has struck out only two batters and gotten only seven swings and misses out of 75 pitches is nonetheless cause for alarm. A contact-heavy approach worked for him in 2022, but it was with a great deal of good luck. His poor spring may be an early sign that he can't count on that happening again.

    Verdict: Buy

Could the Red Sox and Royals Really Be This Good?

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    FORT MYERS, FL - MARCH 6:  José Flores, Josh Winckowski #73 of the Boston Red Sox, Jorge Alfaro #38 of the Boston Red Sox, and Caleb Hamilton #77 of the Boston Red Sox react in the dugout before a Grapefruit League game against the Detroit Tigers on March 6, 2023 at JetBlue Park at Fenway South in Fort Myers, Florida. (Photo by Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images)
    Maddie Malhotra/Boston Red Sox/Getty Images

    The Boston Red Sox Are Undefeated

    2022 Record: 78-84

    2023 Spring Record: 8-0

    The good vibes within the Red Sox's clubhouse are certainly welcome in the wake of such a tumultuous offseason, but that's not the real reason the club is thus far undefeated in Grapefruit League play. For that, nothing has helped more than their league-best 3.00 ERA.

    Pitching could indeed be a strength for Boston if everyone stays healthy and the likes of Chris Sale, Corey Kluber and James Paxton turn back the clock to better times. But Paxton (hamstring) and young hurlers Brayan Bello (forearm) and Garrett Whitlock (hip) are already expected to miss Opening Day, while Nick Pivetta has been slowed by COVID.

    In the meantime, doing the heavy lifting for Boston are guys like Matt Dermody, Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski, Norwith Gudino, Wyatt Mills and Taylor Broadway. In other words, not guys the Red Sox figure to lean heavily on in the regular season.

    Verdict: Sell


    The Kansas City Royals Are Dominating

    2022 Record: 65-97

    2023 Spring Record: 10-2

    Meanwhile in the Cactus League, the Royals have four more wins than anyone else and are generally running away with the darn thing at 10-2. Might this be a sign that they're ready to take a Baltimore Orioles-esque leap to relevance in 2023?

    A better question is why this seems so familiar, if for no other reason than it has a clear answer. The Royals have achieved winning records in 11 of the last 17 years, but only three winning records in the regular season within that same span. Mutually inclusive, these two things are not.

    Beyond that, call it a hunch that the Royals' league-best .560 slugging percentage isn't going to last. With all respect to Bobby Witt Jr., Salvador Perez and Vinnie Pasquantino, it's hard to imagine the Royals ever being a slugging powerhouse while they play in offense-killer that is Kauffman Stadium.

    Verdict: Sell

Could the Marlins and Giants Really Be This Bad?

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    Miami Marlins manager Skip Schumaker, left, stands on the mound with catcher Nick Fortes (4) and relief pitcher George Soriano, right, during the third inning of a spring training baseball game against the New York Mets, Saturday, March 4, 2023, in Jupiter, Fla. (AP Photo/Lynne Sladky)
    AP Photo/Lynne Sladky

    The Marlins Have One Win to Show for Spring Training

    2022 Record: 69-93

    2023 Spring Record: 1-9

    It isn't just Cueto. Basically, nobody on the Marlins is having a good spring, hence how they're just 1-for-10 in winning their tilts in the Grapefruit League so far.

    The pitching, at least, is better than it's shown in racking up a 6.63 ERA. Concerns about Cueto notwithstanding, any rotation built around live arms like those belonging to reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Edward Cabrera and Trevor Rogers should be a good one.

    Actually alarming, however, is the league-worst .573 OPS the Marlins have on offense. That's all too reminiscent of the .658 OPS that Miami's offense had last year, and a telling sign that they needed to add bigger bats than the singles-producing types belonging to Arraez and Jean Segura.

    Verdict: Buy


    The Giants Aren't Redeeming Their Offseason

    2022 Record: 81-81

    2023 Spring Record: 3-9

    Speaking of teams that should have done more during the winter, well, it's not for lack of trying that the Giants are also in that discussion. They nearly scored Aaron Judge and they did score Carlos Correa for just about a week.

    As for what's going wrong for the Giants right now, it's more bad pitching than bad hitting. And their pitching has been very bad indeed, racking up a 7.43 ERA that's second-to-last ahead of only the 7.47 ERA put up by the cross-bay Oakland Athletics.

    Not to worry, though. Logan Webb and Alex Wood look very good in the three outings they've made, while Alex Cobb, Ross Stripling and Sean Manaea have each gone 1-for-2 in posting solid outings in their own right. As such, what looks like a solid starting rotation on paper has mostly looked good in preparing for the coming season.

    Verdict: Sell


    Spring stats courtesy of MLB.com. All others courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.

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