Men's NCAA Bracket 2023: Odds for Every Sweet 16 Team to Win NCAA Championship

For as upset-riddled as the 2023 men's NCAA tournament has been, there sure are a bunch of teams still standing who felt like legitimate threats to win it all back when this dance began.

We lost Arizona and Virginia on Day 1. Purdue bit the dust on Day 2. We bid farewell to Kansas on Day 3. And it was sayonara to Marquette, Baylor and Miami on Day 4.

But that still leaves nine of the top 16 seeds, not to mention a doggone good San Diego State team that probably should have landed ahead of Virginia on Selection Sunday.

On top of that, No. 8 seed Arkansas and No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic aren't exactly here for a participation trophy. Either the Razorbacks or the Owls could win the whole thing.

And what of this year's Cinderella, Princeton?

Well, the Tigers probably won't win a title.

Sure would be cool if they did, though.

Our national championship odds for each of the remaining 16 teams are based on a combination of how good each squad was during the regular season, how good it has looked through two games and how difficult its remaining path is.

Teams are listed in ascending order of likelihood to win the title. Odds sum to 100 percent and are not intended to reflect actual betting lines in Vegas, which tend to sum to around 135 percent.

The Road Ahead

Princeton beat Arizona and then beat up Missouri, so this team won't be scared of any foe. But the rest of the South Region did the Tigers no favors. They'll get No. 6 seed Creighton in the Sweet 16 for the right to likely face No. 1 seed Alabama in the Elite Eight.

Reason to Buy

Princeton couldn't buy a bucket in the game against Arizona, going 4-of-25 from distance. Usually, though, this is a solid three-point shooting team, as evidenced by the 12 makes against Missouri. The Tigers averaged 9.0 makes per game in the 10 contests leading into the NCAA tournament. They also have a quality point guard in Tosan Evbuomwan, who has at least four assists in 13 consecutive games.

Reason to Sell

Well, until 10 days ago, they hadn't beaten a single KenPom top-100 opponent, and they weren't a top-100 team in their own right. The Tigers got a good number of steals against Arizona, but they typically force very few turnovers and just aren't anything special on either end of the floor. It has been an unforgettable run, but they'll eventually run into someone who both makes some shots and grabs some rebounds.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

History gets drastically rewritten. No team seeded lower than No. 11 has made the Final Four, and in 1985 Villanova set the record for "worst" champion as a No. 8 seed, so a No. 15 seed winning four more games would be unheard of. But Princeton sure didn't look like an underdog against Missouri. If that team keeps showing up, who knows?

Title Odds: +16500

The Road Ahead

I picked Miami to lose to Drake. I also picked Miami to lose to Indiana. And if my doubt is the lucky charm for this team, good news, Hurricanes fans: I'm picking them to lose to Houston and would also pick them to lose to the Texas/Xavier winner in the Elite Eight. That remaining road to the Final Four is just plain brutal.

Reason to Buy

They struggled to get rolling against Drake, but this is an outstanding offense when it does get into a rhythm. Four of the five starters average better than 13 points per game, and Wooga Poplar is no slouch of a fifth-leading scorer who went for 15 in that opener against Drake. The 'Canes don't commit many turnovers, and Norchad Omier is one of the best offensive rebounders in the nation.

Reason to Sell

Among the 16 remaining teams, Miami has the worst defense. No, we didn't forget about Princeton. Even after holding Indiana to 69 points, the Hurricanes still rank a dozen spots behind the Tigers in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency. They can force turnovers, but they've also given up at least 83 points in a game on eight occasions.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

The big four all show up. Miami is a perfect 15-0 when Omier, Nijel Pack, Isaiah Wong and Jordan Miller each score at least nine points. The defense is questionable, for sure, but the 'Canes won 27 games despite that D because they are capable of bringing the noise on offense.

Title Odds: +7500

The Road Ahead

After knocking off Memphis and extinguishing Fairleigh Dickinson, Florida Atlantic has a steeper hill to climb next weekend. The Owls will draw No. 4 seed Tennessee in the Sweet 16 for their first game against a team from a Power Six conference since Nov. 14. Either No. 3 seed Kansas State or No. 7 seed Michigan State will be awaiting that winner in the Elite Eight.

Reason to Buy

We haven't seen it yet in the tournament, but the Owls can pour in triples like few others. They averaged 9.8 makes per game heading into the dance and had a five-game stretch late in the season in which they made at least 11 triples and shot at least 40 percent in each game. If they heat up, look out.

Reason to Sell

Prior to eking out that first-round win over Memphis and surviving a great game against FDU, FAU hadn't faced a single NCAA tournament foe (except for No. 16 seed Northern Kentucky). This next game against Tennessee will be their toughest of the season, and it won't get any easier from there. Moreover, their defense has been fine but not great thus far in the tournament.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Johnell Davis keeps playing as he did against FDU. The sophomore lead guard went for 29 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and five steals, leading all players from both teams in all four categories. If he continues to channel his inner Marcus Smart, the Owls just might become the first No. 9 seed (or lower) to win it all.

Title Odds: +6000

The Road Ahead

Up next is one heck of a clash of San Diego State's elite defense and Alabama's elite offense. If the Aztecs win that one, though, they could certainly break the Mountain West's eternal "No Final Fours" curse, as this region's No. 2 seed (Arizona) was bounced in the first round and its No. 3 seed (Baylor) was knocked out in the second round.

Reason to Buy

Three-point defense is inherently a bit random, but San Diego State has done a fantastic job of limiting college basketball's great equalizer. In 15 games since late January, opponents have shot 25.1 percent from downtown against the Aztecs. Even if triples start going in more than usual, though, this is a strong defense overall that has held each opponent to 61 points or fewer during a six-game winning streak.

Reason to Sell

The offense isn't exactly good. The Aztecs do a fine job of limiting turnovers, getting to the free-throw line and creating second-chance opportunities, but they simply don't shoot well. Even their star, Matt Bradley, has yet to score more than 18 points in a game in 2023, so there's not much of a threat that someone will defy the percentages by catching fire.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Defense wins championships. There are a bunch of impressive defenses still standing in the dance, so it's going to take more than just clamping down on that end of the floor. But this might be the best team San Diego State has ever had, rivaling the 2011 Kawhi Leonard team that earned a No. 2 seed and the 2019-20 team that would've been in the running for a No. 1 seed. As an aside, it would be swell if the Aztecs could at least make a deep run and put an end to the "Mountain West can't win in March" narrative for good.

Title Odds: +5000

The Road Ahead

You would think that after beating a No. 1 seed, it would be all downhill from here for Arkansas. To the contrary, as far as KenPom was concerned, Kansas was merely the fourth-best team in the West Region. No. 2 seed UCLA, No. 3 seed Gonzaga and No. 4 seed Connecticut all rated higher than the Jayhawks, and they're all still standing. And if the Razorbacks can survive the Huskies in the Sweet 16 and either the Bruins or the Zags in the Elite Eight, it would be one of the most impressive runs to the Final Four of all time.

Reason to Buy

They just beat the reigning national champion despite getting basically nothing out of either Nick Smith Jr. (0 PTS, 1 REB, 1 AST) or Anthony Black (4 PTS, 4 REB, 2 AST), who are the two guys on this team that might be lottery picks in a few months. It's a very talented roster that might finally be back to playing at the level that it was in November.

Reason to Sell

Arkansas fouls a ton, it is a terrible three-point shooting team, and neither of those truths has changed thus far in the tournament. Illinois and Kansas attempted a combined 51 free throws while the Hogs shot a combined 6-of-26 (23.1 percent) from distance. They've managed to win in spite of it thus far, but that combination of factors is why this team suffered 13 losses before the dance.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Their physicality keeps causing problems. The Razorbacks had 12 steals against Illinois, grabbed 15 offensive rebounds against Kansas and scored a combined 43 points from the charity stripe. They are just out-toughing teams, and that mentality always travels. If Smith shows up after a brutal two-game start to the dance, even better.

Title Odds: +4500

The Road Ahead

This is a good Xavier team, but the remaining path is brutal. The Musketeers just so happen to be in the one region where both the No. 1 and No. 2 seed survived opening weekend, so they'll need to knock off Texas and probably Houston just to reach a national semifinal for what would be the first time in program history.

Reason to Buy

Xavier's offense is no joke. Four of the five starters shoot at least 38 percent from three-point range, and fifth starter Jerome Hunter saved his best basketball of the entire season for the opening weekend of the dance. Throw in reserve Desmond Claude, and six Musketeers scored in double figures in Sunday's win over Pittsburgh.

Reason to Sell

Xavier's defense is just OK, and there have been some major power outages on offense over the past two months, the worst of which was the 65-51 loss to Marquette in the Big East championship. And another dud like that against a Texas or a Houston could result in a blowout loss.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

It scores at least 73 points in each game the rest of the way. The Musketeers are 1-7 when falling below that threshold but 26-2 when the offense is clicking at least that well. In a tournament full of teams trying to win it all with defense, Xavier is a breath of fresh air that wants to score its way to a title. We'll see if it works out for the Musketeers, though.

Title Odds: +4000

The Road Ahead

The East Region has been carnage, and not in the "Duke over Purdue and Kentucky over Marquette" way that a lot of us thought it might play out. Rather, none of those teams made it, and it's just Kansas State and probably Tennessee standing between Tom Izzo and a ninth trip to the Final Four. That's doable.

Reason to Buy

The Spartans shot poorly from the perimeter in the wins over USC and Marquette, but that's usually a strength of theirs at close to 40 percent for the year. Joey Hauser, Tyson Walker and Jaden Akins are all dangerous from distance, and that ever-present threat opens up the floor for the whole offense to operate.

Reason to Sell

The lack of turnovers forced on defense is nothing new for the Spartans. They've ranked poorly in that department for almost a decade. But this is one of the worst offensive rebounding teams and one of the worst two-point shooting teams Izzo has ever had. They're good enough to still be here, but they struggle to manufacture points or extra possessions.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

The Walker-A.J. Hoggard backcourt just goes off. They combined for 45 points and nine assists in the 15-point win over Indiana in late February, and anything seems possible when they're both in a groove. Heck, as long as one of the two shows up in a big way, Michigan State has a shot in just about any game.

Title Odds: +3500

The Road Ahead

What do you know? Kansas State is the top team left standing in the East. No. 1 Purdue and No. 2 Marquette went down. Even trendy picks No. 5 Duke and No. 6 Kentucky are gone. The Wildcats will get Michigan State in the Sweet 16 and probably Tennessee in the Elite Eight, and that's a mighty fine draw of backcourts for this turnover-forcing defense.

Reason to Buy

The duo of Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson is as good as it gets. Both can score in bunches and draw a ton of fouls. The former racks up assists and steals. The latter grabs a lot of rebounds. And when they're both in the zone, best of luck slowing down this offense.

Reason to Sell

They're turnover prone. They commit a lot of fouls. They're not great on the glass. And as a whole, the three-point shooting leaves something to be desired. That dynamic duo is some kind of special, but Nowell and Johnson are kind of the whole team.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Nowell remains in his bag and the defense keeps forcing turnovers. Nowell is averaging 22.0 points, 11.5 assists and 3.0 steals and has to be at the top of any list of the best performers thus far in the dance. He has carried the Wildcats all season long, and he might be this year's Kemba Walker.

Title Odds: +2000

The Road Ahead

Can't afford to overlook anyone at this stage of the tournament. Purdue found that out the hard way last year against Saint Peter's in the Sweet 16. But Creighton should beat No. 15 seed Princeton to set up a juicy showdown with No. 1 Alabama in the Elite Eight. A No. 1 vs. No. 6 might not profile as an instant classic, but that absolutely could be one.

Reason to Buy

Creighton doesn't shoot itself in the foot. Doesn't commit many turnovers or fouls. Doesn't allow many defensive rebounds. Hits a lot of threes. It's an M.O. similar to what nearly led Penn State to a second-round upset of Texas, except the Bluejays actually have a strong frontcourt presence in Ryan Kalkbrenner.

Reason to Sell

They don't manufacture points via offensive rebounds or fouls, nor generate more possessions via turnovers. Creighton allows about four more field-goal attempts per game than it takes, which is a bit of a red flag in a tournament where one red-hot shooter (or an ice-cold shooter on your own team) can knock you out.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

They keep getting 30-pieces. Kalkbrenner went for 31 in the opener against NC State. Ryan Nembhard had 30 in the second round against Baylor. (Do you think, maybe, Creighton missed both of those guys in last year's second-round game against Kansas?) Trey Alexander also had a 30-burger earlier this season, and both Baylor Scheierman and Arthur Kaluma have put up at least 25 in a game. But we'll see if Creighton can keep getting M.O.P. performances.

Title Odds: +1750

The Road Ahead

It'll be Gonzaga vs. UCLA in a repeat of one of the most incredible finishes in NCAA tournament history: Jalen Suggs' game-winning heave in the 2021 Final Four. Those teams also met in the 2006 Sweet 16 when Gonzaga suffered an all-time collapse, and Adam Morrison was left in tears. Expect a good one in Las Vegas, with the winner of that gem likely taking on Connecticut in the Elite Eight.

Reason to Buy

This is the most efficient offense in the country, per KenPom. There are understandable concerns about a defense that just allowed 81 points to TCU and that ranks roughly 75th in the nation. But when you've got Drew Timme, Julian Strawther and an offense that scores better than 87 points per game, mediocre defense doesn't seem so bad. After all, Gonzaga is a perfect 28-0 when scoring at least 75 points this season.

Reason to Sell

The defense is a concern, but the bigger concern is the lack of a point guard. Nolan Hickman was a total ghost on both ends of the floor against TCU, playing 30 minutes, finishing with two points and one assist and doing nothing to slow down Mike Miles Jr. or Damion Baugh. Against a more balanced team for which three-point shooting is even remotely a strength, Gonzaga's backcourt could be its undoing.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

Timme continues to dominate. Baylor shut the big man down in the 2021 national championship, but few teams have been able to pull that off over the past four years. Won't be easy in the slightest if Gonzaga has to go through UCLA, Connecticut, Houston and then Alabama to win it all, but Timme could carry them.

Title Odds: +1600

The Road Ahead

Tennessee lucked out on Selection Sunday to land in Purdue's region and further lucked out when the Boilermakers bit the dust in the first round. The Volunteers will now be favored in the Sweet 16 against No. 9 seed Florida Atlantic with a possible showdown with Kansas State awaiting them in the Elite Eight.

Reason to Buy

The defense has had a couple of duds since losing Zakai Zeigler for the season in late February, but when they're on, the Volunteers still have the best defense in the nation. They shut down a solid Louisiana offense in the first round and played an even better game against an even better Duke offense in the second round.

Reason to Sell

You wouldn't know it from the way Olivier Nkamhoua and Santiago Vescovi were draining shots against the Blue Devils, but this was not a good offense for most of the season. Every now and then, the Vols would pop up for 82 on Texas or 87 against a great Mississippi State defense, but they have been held to 70 points or fewer in more than half of their games. And even with those two guys on fire against Duke, Tennessee is averaging 61.5 PPG thus far in the dance.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

It keeps holding opponents below 63 points. For the season, Tennessee is 22-0 when it does so, compared to just 3-10 when the defense isn't that impactful. I wrote in mid-January that Tennessee's defense is good enough to win a title. Definitely fell out of love with this team over the final six weeks of the regular season, but the D remains championship-level good.

Title Odds: +1500

The Road Ahead

Arkansas' upset of No. 1 seed Kansas opened up the path a bit for Connecticut. But the Huskies can't afford to overlook the Razorbacks, who are seeking a third consecutive trip to the Elite Eight. If UConn does win, though, that next game against UCLA or Gonzaga will be even tougher. The Huskies are one of the best teams left in the field, but they'll need to prove it to get to Houston.

Reason to Buy

Connecticut is deep and comes at you in waves. Adama Sanogo's going to the bench? Well, shoot, that means it's Donovan Clingan's turn to dominate down low. Joey Calcaterra shoots 45.3 percent from distance off the bench. And between Andre Jackson and Hassan Diarra, there's pretty much always an excellent defensive guard on the floor.

Reason to Sell

Turnovers have been an issue in most of Connecticut's losses, particularly the bad ones. The Huskies were minus-18 in turnover margin between the consecutive losses to St. John's and Seton Hall, and they would've beaten Marquette in the Big East tournament if they could have gotten more than two steals in that game.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

January Connecticut doesn't resurface. This was the best team in the country in November and December, and the Huskies have been looking pretty darn good again over the past seven weeks. If they just keep doing their thing on both ends of the court, they not only can beat anyone in the country, they probably should.

Title Odds: +1250

The Road Ahead

After surviving back-to-back games against two of some of the best shooting teams in the nation (Colgate and Penn State), yet another offensive juggernaut awaits Texas in the Sweet 16 in the form of Xavier. Should the Longhorns win that one, it might be time to shift gears in preparation for a much more physical, defensive war with Houston.

Reason to Buy

This defense is out of control right now. During a six-game winning streak that included two games against Kansas, the Longhorns have allowed just 58.2 points per game. It's almost unfathomable that this is the same team that allowed 116 points in a single home game against Kansas State back in early January.

Reason to Sell

Texas is neither a great rebounding team nor a great three-point shooting team. You wouldn't know if from the clinic it put on against Colgate, but those issues reared their ugly head against Penn State. The Longhorns shot 1-of-13 from distance, finished just plus-4 on the glass against a team that basically doesn't have a frontcourt and just barely survived, despite limiting Jalen Pickett to one assist with seven turnovers.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

The defense continues to operate at a sky-high level. Texas never got the national respect as a title contender that it deserved, but this was always a team capable of winning it all. And with the way the Longhorns have been defending over the past two-plus weeks, they just might be the top candidate to win a title. For all the talk about Houston having a hometown advantage in the Final Four, Texas could oust Houston in the Elite Eight and play for a title less than three hours from home.

Title Odds: +1100

The Road Ahead

Kansas is gone from the West Region, but no rest for the weary. UCLA will draw Gonzaga in the Sweet 16 before either a national championship-caliber Elite Eight game against Connecticut or a talented Arkansas team peaking when it matters most, 2022 UNC style. Either way, not a great time to be a walking hospital bed.

Reason to Buy

UCLA has one of the best defenses in the country. It also has an offense that rarely commits turnovers (shoutout Tyger Campbell) and grabs a lot of offensive rebounds (shoutout Adem Bona and Jaime Jaquez Jr.) While their shooting percentages aren't great, the Bruins entered the second round averaging 7.6 more field-goal attempts per game than they allow. And the shots they do allow are always contested.

Reason to Sell

They're so banged up. Jaylen Clark is done for the year. Bona missed the opener and appeared to reaggravate his shoulder injury on a dunk against Northwestern, though did return and had a critical block late in the game. David Singleton had a hideous-looking rolled ankle late against Northwestern, and his status for next weekend is unknown at this time. And it's a damn shame because full-strength UCLA at the end of the regular season was shaping up to be the pick to win it all.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

The banged-up guys are able to keep playing and if Amari Bailey continues to shine. Bailey was all over the map during the season and had a tendency to vanish against top competition. But when Clark went down, the freshman stepped up. He scored 26 in the first game without Clark and is averaging 15.5 PPG, 6.0 APG, 4.0 RPG and 2.0 SPG in the tournament. You just know Campbell and Jaquez will deliver, so if Bailey stays hot, this team has the goods needed to win a title.

Title Odds: +900

The Road Ahead

After a 22-point win over a Maryland team that likes to drag out possessions on defense, Alabama's up-tempo offense must deal with a similar contrast in styles in the Sweet 16 against San Diego State. Come out on top from that potential rock fight, though, and the Crimson Tide will run into Creighton or Princeton.

Reason to Buy

They're simply relentless. They contest everything on defense, and 10 different players have scored at least 14 points in a game this season. Soon-to-be top-five draft pick Brandon Miller didn't even score against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, and Alabama still scored 96 points and won by 21.

Reason to Sell

For as good as the defense is, turnover margin is a problem. In its five losses, Alabama was a combined minus-36 in turnover margin, and it also posted a minus-10 in the SEC tournament against Missouri. And with so many great turnover-forcing defenses (UCLA, Texas, Houston, Tennessee, etc.) still standing, it's almost inevitable Alabama will need to survive one or two of those teams in the Final Four.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

The shooting disparities continue. For the year, Alabama makes 10.1 triples per game and allows just 5.4. That's approximately 14 points per game that opponents need to make up elsewhere—against a team that also shoots 54.1 percent inside the arc while holding opponents to 40.9 percent on the other end. It's little wonder that turnovers seem to be the only way to beat Alabama.

Title Odds: +425

The Road Ahead

If they get to the Final Four, they'll have hometown advantage. Two major hurdles still standing in Houston's way, though, as they'll play what should be a wildly entertaining game against Miami in the Sweet 16 before probably running into Texas in the Elite Eight. Quite a bit of carnage in this year's tournament, but the bracket hasn't broken in Houston's favor yet.

Reason to Buy

This defense is spectacular, as is the offensive rebounding. And if Marcus Sasser was able to drop 22 points on Auburn while playing at 60 percent because of a groin injury, looking forward to seeing what he can do the rest of the way after a few days of rest and recovery.

Reason to Sell

Houston's cold spells are no joke. The Cougars couldn't get into any sort of offensive rhythm against Northern Kentucky, and they let Auburn go on a 25-10 run over the course of about 10 minutes. This team can beat anyone. It also proved it could lose at home to Temple and struggle with a No. 16 seed when the shots aren't falling.

Will Cut Down the Nets If...

It can avoid/withstand a fatal scoring drought. From an overall efficiency standpoint, Houston isn't as good as Villanova was in 2018, nor as good as Virginia was in 2019. But in this particular season, the Cougars have been No. 1 on KenPom every day since before Christmas. They're the favorite for a reason, and they'll get it done if they don't brick themselves out of the dance.

Title Odds: +400