Ranking Upset Potential for Every 2023 NBA Playoff Underdog

The 2023 NBA playoff bracket is set with some tantalizing matchups, including a few series with real upset potential.

Stars who already have championships, such as LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kawhi Leonard, Anthony Davis and Klay Thompson, are all on teams seeded fifth or worse, although we know what they're capable of once the postseason tips off.

While some series could be over quickly (hello, Celtics-Hawks) others seem destined to go the distance.

Going through series by series, we'll look at which teams have a legitimate chance to pull off an upset and which ones will prove why they earned the higher seed.

All series will be ranked according to upset potential, beginning with "no chance" and ending with a "yeah, this is a definitely happening".

Note: "Underdogs" will be defined by having the lower seed in the matchup, with series odds provided by FanDuel.com.

Series Line: Celtics -1200 ($1,200 bet wins $100)

The Hawks are far better equipped to win a postseason series than a year ago, when Trae Young was trapped and harassed by the Miami Heat on a regular basis before Atlanta was eliminated in five games.

Dejounte Murray provides some ball-handling relief, and the Hawks had a number of role players step up (Saddiq Bey with 17 points, Clint Capela with 21 rebounds) in their recent play-in win over the Heat.

That being said, these Celtics are way too talented, experienced and deep for Atlanta to make this a series.

Boston was just two wins away from a championship last season and possesses the best net rating in the league (plus-7.9) since the All-Star break, per NBA.com.

Assuming Marcus Smart can return from a neck injury, the combination of him and Derrick White is a terrific defensive matchup for Boston to counter Young and Murray with. Atlanta doesn't have a lockdown defender on the wing to slow down Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown, both of whom finished in the top nine in scoring this season. As well as the Hawks can put up points, Atlanta ranked just 25th in total defense after the All-Star break (118.2 rating).

Can Young explode for a 40-point, 15-assist night and steal a win in the series? Absolutely.

Can the Hawks play good enough defense to slow down Boston's star duo and actually have a chance at an upset? Absolutely not.

Upset Potential: None

Series Line: Bucks -1200

Like with the Boston Celtics-Atlanta Hawks series, betting on the home team isn't going to win you a lot of money here. The Bucks are overwhelming favorites, and for good reason.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is arguably the best player in the NBA, the Heat stink offensively and Miami relies far too heavily on veterans who are clearly past their primes.

Basically, this is going to be a short series.

Even Jimmy Butler, Miami's best chance at springing any sort of upset, averaged a modest 22.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists with one total steal or block in four regular season games against Milwaukee. This is a team that desperately needed to upgrade at the trade deadline with a veteran like Jae Crowder, who ended up getting traded to the Bucks instead.

If Tyler Herro and Max Strus have an off shooting night, Miami may struggle to score more than 90 points against a Bucks team that should end up with three starters on an All-Defensive team (Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez and Jrue Holiday).

The Bucks have title aspirations, while the Heat stumbled into the eighth seed after initially losing to the Hawks during the play-in tournament.

This could easily be a sweep and won't go more than five games in total.

Upset Potential: None

Series Line: 76ers -1000

Before we bury the Nets' chances just yet, let's review some of the positives Brooklyn brings to the table.

Mikal Bridges looks the part of a No. 1 offensive option and should bring plenty of motivation to the table against his hometown Sixers, the team that drafted and ultimately traded him on the same night in 2018.

If Bridges can get hot from the outside and his mid-range jumper is clicking, averaging 30-plus points in this series is entirely possible. In all, five Nets are putting up double-digit scoring numbers, while Dorian Finney-Smith can hit open shots and play high-level defense as well.

Of course, all this is ignoring Brooklyn's 11-13 record and negative net rating (minus-1.2) following the All-Star break and the fact that this team isn't built to stop a brute like Joel Embiid at all.

Philly possesses more experience together, has the best player in the series and homecourt advantage. At the end of the day, this is going to be too much to overcome for a Nets team that only recently stopped wearing name tags in the locker room.

While post-All-Star-break wins against elite teams like the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets show a little bit of upset potential for Brooklyn, the Sixers ultimately aren't losing more than one game here.

Upset Potential: Extremely low

Series Line: Suns -500

At full strength, the Clippers may even be slight favorites in this matchup against the Suns, given that Kevin Durant has played just eight total games with his new teammates.

With Paul George not targeting a return from a sprained knee until Round 2, per The Athletic's Law Murray, this is simply too much to ask for Kawhi Leonard and company to overcome this superstar Suns team.

Durant is 25-2 in his last 27 games dating back to Nov. 27 and is averaging 26.0 points on an absurdly good 69.7 true shooting percentage since joining Phoenix.

While he and Chris Paul have each had their previous injury history in the postseason, the Suns are the healthier team going into the series.

This isn't going to be a sweep by any means, especially if guys like Norman Powell and Russell Westbrook put up some big performances. The last time we saw Leonard in the playoffs (2020-21), he averaged 30.4 points, 7.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 2.1 steals and shot 57.3 percent overall over an 11-game stretch as well.

There's definitely some upset potential here with the Suns still getting to know each other and Leonard's history of playoff success.

Still, these Suns are too insanely talented to lose in the first round, especially to a team like Los Angeles that will be without its second-best player.

Upset Potential: Low; medium if George can somehow return

Series Line: Nuggets -500

Don't let the seedings fool you, this has the potential to be an interesting series.

This version of the Wolves (one with a healthy Karl-Anthony Towns and Mike Conley Jr.) hasn't played the Nuggets yet this season, although Towns did feast on Denver in four games in the 2021-22 season (25.5 points on 59.3/45.5/95.7 percent shooting splits).

Rudy Gobert also represents a difficult matchup for Nikola Jokić. As Michael C. Wright of NBA.com pointed out, Jokić has averaged just 21.7 points and 9.7 rebounds in 28 career meetings against Gobert, with the three-time Defensive Player of the Year holding a 16-12 advantage in head-to-head meetings.

Anthony Edwards will likely look to attack Jokić in the pick-and-roll time and time again while Conley brings the veteran experience of 73 playoff games (all starts) to a fairly inexperienced Wolves team.

This Nuggets team is still nearly unbeatable in Denver (34-7) and will have homecourt advantage. While we're not ready to predict an upset here, one is entirely possible given the amount of talent on this Wolves roster.

Upset Potential: Medium

Series Line: Cavaliers -180

The Cavs ultimately finished the regular season four games ahead of the Knicks and will have the best player on the floor in Donovan Mitchell, although recent play suggests this series is extremely even.

Since the trade deadline when the Knicks acquired Josh Hart from the Portland Trail Blazers, these two teams have nearly identical records (16-9 for Cleveland, 17-9 for New York) and net ratings (plus-5.2 for the Cavs, plus-5.4 for the Knicks).

We also saw what Jalen Brunson is capable of, as the star guard dropped a career-high 48 points in Cleveland recently while New York hung 130 points in total on the Cavs No. 1-ranked defense. Even 42 points from Mitchell wasn't enough to keep pace with a Knicks team that had the best offense in the NBA following the trade deadline (121.2 rating), per NBA.com.

Julius Randle is also making his way back from an ankle injury, putting more pressure on this tight Cleveland defense.

The Knicks are deep, talented and have played their best basketball over the past two months. Cleveland won 51 games and earned the No. 4 seed for a reason, but their recent stinker of a game against the Knicks and starting small forward Isaac Okoro battling knee soreness should have the Cavs on upset alert.

Upset Potential: High

Series Line: Grizzlies -142

In terms of betting odds, this is the closest of all eight first-round playoff series.

This makes sense considering the Grizzlies and Lakers have identical net ratings since the trade deadline (plus-4.4, tied for 7th overall in the NBA) with nearly matching records as well (18-10 for Memphis, 18-9 for Los Angeles).

The Grizzlies get the slight nod here considering the experience of the core together and the fact this team has remained near the top of the West all season, while the Lakers have brushed off a 2-10 start and injuries to LeBron James and Anthony Davis.

James has done more with less, of course, as his 2017-18 Cleveland Cavaliers overhauled their own roster at the trade deadline and still made a run to the Finals as a No. 4 seed. The new Lakers Big Three of James, Davis and D'Angelo Russell is already clicking, with a net rating of plus-23.4 in their first 291 possessions together, per Cleaning the Glass.

It's also worth noting that Memphis will be without starting center Steven Adams for the entire playoffs because of a knee injury. One of the best offensive rebounders and screen setters in the league, Adams also brought 66 games of playoff experience to the table as well.

While it would be surprising to see Ja Morant and company dip out this early, especially after securing the No. 2 seed in the West, James has only lost in the first round once in his 15 total playoff trips.

Memphis is still considered the favorite here, but no one should be surprised to see the Lakers advance.

Upset Potential: Extremely high

Series Line: Warriors -275

The only playoff matchup where the lower seed is actually favored in the series, these poor Kings aren't getting any respect in the betting world even after winning 48 games and earning the third seed in the West.

For all of the high-octane Warriors teams of the past decade, this Sacramento group actually had the best offense in NBA history (119.4 rating) this season, per Stathead Basketball. Six players averaged 12.2 points per game or more, led by De'Aaron Fox's 25.0 a night.

It's fair to assume no NBA head coach can better game plan for these Warriors than Kings' leading man Mike Brown, who spent the past six years as an assistant to Steve Kerr.

Still, the Warriors are the defending champions for a reason and now have Andrew Wiggins back with the team. Golden State slipped to just 14th defensively this season, yet it allows 4.2 fewer points per 100 possessions with Wiggins on the floor (84th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass). Even if this defense doesn't reach its previous elite level, it should be far better than the version we've witnessed over the last few months.

Playoff experience matters as well, with players like Fox, Keegan Murray, Malik Monk and Davion Mitchell just now getting their first tastes of the postseason. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, on the other hand, have already combined for 424 career playoff games and four NBA titles.

The three-seeded Kings are now the underdogs in this series despite possessing home-court advantage.

Upset Potential: High enough that the odds have been flipped to the sixth-seeded Warriors