With Giannis Hurt and West Wide-Open, Celtics Emerging as Early Title Favorites

Ahead of the 2023 NBA playoffs, picking anyone but the Boston Celtics to win the championship may have been a textbook case of overthinking.

After dominating most of a 119-106 Game 2 win over the Atlanta Hawks on Tuesday, Boston leads its first-round series 2-0. And it hasn't really been pushed for many of the 96 postseason minutes it's played.

Of course, things could certainly look a little different after the series shifts to Atlanta, but the results so far reflect the regular season the Celtics had.

The Milwaukee Bucks finished first in the Eastern Conference, but Boston owned the league's best point differential for the overwhelming majority of the campaign. The Celtics entered the playoffs as the only team in the NBA that was top four in both points scored and points allowed per 100 possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.

In late March, they crushed the Bucks by 41 points. They beat the Philadelphia 76ers on the road in February. They went to the Finals last season. And right now, they're mostly healthy.

Boston checks pretty much every box you're looking for from a title contender, while some of the others who've at least flirted with that designation are all welcoming reason for doubts.

After a nasty fall in Game 1 of the Bucks series, Giannis Antetokounmpo is doubtful for Game 2. Milwaukee is already down a game to the eighth-seeded Miami Heat, and it finished with the 10th-best regular-season offense among playoff teams.

The Sixers haven't lost to the Brooklyn Nets, but they also haven't looked as dominant as Boston against Atlanta. And James Harden was 3-of-13 with five turnovers in Philadelphia's Game 2 win. If his playoff demons resurface in a second-round series, the Celtics won't be as forgiving as Brooklyn.

Out west, the Denver Nuggets went 7-10 in their last 17 regular-season games, though they didn't look rusty in Game 1 against the Minnesota Timberwolves. Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns have already dropped a game in which they were favored.

The Memphis Grizzlies are down to the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Lakers, and Ja Morant is questionable for Game 2 with a hand injury. The Los Angeles Clippers still don't have Paul George back from a knee injury.

The Golden State Warriors are down 2-0 in a playoff series for the first time in Stephen Curry's career. And the Sacramento Kings have nowhere near the playoff experience Boston does.

Doubts everywhere.

Except, again, with the Celtics.

No wonder both FiveThirtyEight's projection system and multiple sportsbooks (including FanDuel) now see Boston as the favorite to win it all.

Beyond the numbers and concerns listed above, it's easy to see why the odds have shifted (Milwaukee was previously the favorite).

For one thing, Boston isn't giving any reason for questions against the Hawks. The final scores of Games 1 and 2, which were both decided by 13 points, make them sound closer than they were. In each case, the Celtics took control early and never truly relented.

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have combined for 101 points in the two contests. The backcourt defense of Marcus Smart and Derrick White kept Trae Young and Dejounte Murray under 50 percent shooting in both contests. And the Celtics have showcased their ability to shapeshift in a way few others can.

They're starting Smart and White, lining up their two No. 1 option-caliber scorers at the forward spots and rounding out the lineup with Al Horford at the 5. That, of course, is the small, playmaking-heavy version of the Celtics that should be able to go shot for shot with anyone.

But they've also spent some time with both Horford and Robert Williams III on the floor, which is the big, old-school setup that helped carry Boston to the Finals in 2022. That's the frontcourt that could frustrate Joel Embiid or Giannis in a way most teams can't.

Ultimately, though, championships are won by superstars. Even the 2004 Detroit Pistons, often cited as the "starless" team that got it done, had two players (Ben Wallace and Chauncey Billups) who finished in the top 16 for value over replacement player that season. And in 2023, depending on how you define superstar, every team still standing has at least one.

While Brown will certainly have his say in plenty of games this postseason, winning those matchups is largely on the shoulders of Tatum.

After dropping 29 on the Hawks on Tuesday, Tatum has 1,747 career playoff points. Only Kobe Bryant, Tony Parker and LeBron James had more through Tatum's exact age down to the day. In the 2022 postseason alone, he showed more than he ever has as a playmaker, with 6.2 assists per game.

But he struggled in the Finals against the Warriors, shooting 36.7 percent from the field and 65.6 percent from the line while averaging 3.8 turnovers.

He's now had almost a full calendar year to reflect on that performance. And NBA history is filled with examples of players who had to take some postseason lumps before breaking through.

Think of the battles Michael Jordan had to survive with the Detroit Pistons before he won his first championship. The San Antonio Spurs were famously fueled by their 2013 Finals loss on the way to a dominant 2014 championship run.

Now, Tatum has a chance to write his own story of perseverance.