Bold Predictions for 2023 NBA Conference Finals

Following the Boston Celtics' Game 7 dismantling of Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers, the Eastern and Western Conference Finals are officially set.

Incredibly, the four teams left standing are the same four from the 2020 bubble postseason in Florida. In the East, the Celtics will host the Miami Heat. Out West, the Los Angeles Lakers are the underdogs against the top-seeded Denver Nuggets.

With the stage set for a 2020 sequel, below you'll find some bold predictions for how things will play out this time around.

Given the fact that he's averaging 31.1 points this postseason, this might not seem all that bold, but the Celtics have a pair of candidates for this honor too.

After scoring 51 on Sunday (an NBA record for a Game 7), Jayson Tatum is up to 28.2 points in the playoffs. At 24.6, Jaylen Brown isn't far behind. And as last year's Finals showed us, he's capable of bringing more in the event Tatum struggles.

Having both of those players, Marcus Smart and Derrick White means Boston has a ton of defensive ability and versatility to throw at Butler too. In theory, that should be able to slow him down (or at least make things trickier for him).

But if there's one thing we've learned about Jimmy since he joined the Heat, it's that there really isn't a playoff puzzle he can't solve.

This is his third conference finals appearance in four years. And since he came to Miami, no one in the league has more playoff wins over replacement player.

Butler himself may insist that "Playoff Jimmy" is "not a thing," but the numbers say otherwise. And the more obstacles thrown in his way, the more ferocious Playoff Jimmy seems to become.

Boston's offensive talent is going to have some explosive stretches, and Butler is really Miami's only weapon for a shootout. That means he's going to score in bunches. He might even raise that 31.1-point average before the series is over.

The Celtics are clearly the deeper, more talented team in this matchup. It's not all that surprising to see them open as an overwhelming -550 favorite on FanDuel Sportsbook (bet $550 to win $100).

But Miami is not playing a walkover. Butler, Bam Adebayo and Miami's corps of undrafted super role players is as competitive as anyone left standing. And Boston, including its stars, is prone to extended lapses in focus.

Take Tatum, for example. He was 1-of-14 for the first 43 minutes of Game 6 against the 76ers. He finished that game with a bang (including four threes in the final minutes) and then closed Philly out with 51 in Game 7.

Brown, meanwhile, only has three more assists (44) than turnovers (41) this postseason, and his lack of sharpness as a ball-handler will be exposed by an aggressive Miami defense.

Boston just sort of coasting will probably cost it one game. Butler seems almost guaranteed to single-handedly win another. And the Heat's expectation-crushing cast will get one more.

In the end, though, as was the case against Philadelphia, the Celtics' depth will eventually win out. And the fact that Game 7 is in Boston will help make that so.

Anthony Davis is leading the Lakers in free-throw attempts per game at 5.7. His 83.8 free-throw percentage also tops LeBron's 76.2.

But James is going to sense the moment and an interior defense that struggled for much of the regular season and attack the paint more than he did in the first two rounds.

There's real value in LeBron's willingness to defer to playmakers like D'Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves and Dennis Schröder. It's spared him some of the immense workload he's carried in previous postseason runs.

But Denver's offense is a juggernaut when Nikola Jokić is on the floor. And keeping pace may require LeBron to play a bit more like he did in the past.

That, in concert with L.A.'s gargantuan lead over the rest of the NBA in free-throw discrepancy, means the Lakers will almost certainly get more trips to the charity stripe. And LeBron will spearhead that advantage.

Nikola Jokić is coming off a Western Conference Semifinals in which he averaged a truly absurd 34.5 points, 13.2 rebounds, 10.3 assists, 1.0 blocks and 1.0 steals.

He joined Draymond Green (who did it in 2018) and Magic Johnson (who did it three times) as the only players in league history to average a triple-double in the conference semifinals.

But those numbers came against the Phoenix Suns, who are 13th out of 16 teams in playoff points allowed per 100 possessions. And that number was contributed to by a Los Angeles Clippers team that was without Paul George for all of that series and Kawhi Leonard for most of it.

In short, the Suns defense was a lot worse than the Lakers unit Denver is about to face.

L.A. is currently first in playoff points allowed per 100 possessions, and that mark came against the second-seeded Memphis Grizzlies and Stephen Curry's Golden State Warriors.

The Lakers will undoubtedly be a stiffer test, but Jokić always seems to find the answer key at some point along the way. Regardless of how L.A. wants to play him—whether it's straight-up with AD or with double-teams—Jokić will continue to generate good looks for himself and his teammates on seemingly every possession.

And that means more triple-doubles (he already has a league-leading five this postseason).

If he averages double-figures in points, rebounds and assists, he'll join Magic (1983) and Jason Kidd (2002) as the only players in league history to average a triple-double in the conference finals.

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