Yankees' Aaron Judge vs. Mets' Pete Alonso: Who Will Be MLB's 2023 Home Run Leader?

M&M Boys, meet the A&J Boys.

Maybe the second doesn't roll off the tongue as much as the first, but the point is that New York sluggers Pete Alonso of the Mets and Aaron Judge of the Yankees are settling into a home run race reminiscent of Roger Maris and Mickey Mantle in 1961.

Alonso, who's already broken one of Judge's marks by way of his rookie record 53 home runs in 2019, is now mounting an assault on the 62 home runs that Judge hit in 2022. He's at 20 through 57 games.

Judge is sitting on 18 home runs, but that's over 10 fewer games thanks to a brief stay on the injured list. When broken down by at-bats per home run, Judge (9.3) easily leads Alonso (10.5).

If they play in every game the rest of the way, Thursday's projections had Alonso and Judge ending up with 58 apiece. An impressive figure and close enough to 60 to entertain the possibility of both crossing the threshold.

A Historic Home Run Race? It's About Time.

Wishful thinking? Yeah, maybe. It's still early in the 2023 season, and it's not unheard of for sluggers to begin chasing home run history only to end up in less-than-historic territory. Ask Chris Davis. He knows.

But can anyone blame us for being excited at the mere prospect of Alonso and Judge chasing 60 at the same time?

Only Judge and five others have ever gotten there, and those who have made runs at joining have typically gone it alone. Think Jimmie Foxx in 1932, Hank Greenberg in 1938, Ryan Howard in 2006, Giancarlo Stanton in 2017 and, yes, Judge in 2022. Even in 2001, Barry Bonds outpaced Sammy Sosa by nine home runs in hitting a record-setting 73.

1961 and 1998, on the other hand, were legit home run races. Maris and Mantle went back and forth for much of '61, and Sosa was tied with Mark McGwire with 66 homers as late as September 25 in '98. In both cases, it was that much more dramatic when Maris (61) and McGwire (70) came out on top alone with single-season records in hand.

If similar drama is what's in store for Alonso and Judge this year, it only feels right that it would involve the two of them.

The New York connection obviously has a lot to do with it. There's just something compelling about the two biggest stars in baseball's biggest market duking it out for slugging supremacy. Only MLB commissioner Rob Manfred knows what his dreams are, but this simply has to be one of them.

There's also a sense that this was meant to be. Indeed, talk of 60 home runs swirled around both Alonso and Judge during spring training. And to hear it from one of the contestants, that such a race is actually manifesting is good, wholesome fun.

"To see what he's doing now is exciting," Judge said of Alonso on May 27. "It's good for the game. Him doing his thing with the Mets and hopefully getting there makes baseball better."

Who Has the Edge?

If Alonso is going to win this race, it'll likely be because of his obvious advantage on Judge: durability.

The 28-year-old first baseman has started all 57 of the Mets' games in 2023. Call it par for the course, as he's missed only 16 games since his rookie year back in 2019.

Though Judge played in all but five of the Yankees' games in 2022, the IL stint that sidelined him for nearly two weeks in April and May was more in character. And that should factor into what kind of pace the 31-year-old right fielder is really on. Amend it for the percentage of games he's played, and his projection drops to 50.

Meanwhile, Alonso is mashing. His rate of barrels (i.e., basically perfectly struck batted balls) per plate appearance is higher than ever this year, which is pretty good...

...Until you compare it to what Judge is doing.

Basically everything is up for him compared to last year. Barrels? Check. Exit velocity? Check. Hard-hit rate? Check. Helpful signals from coaches...er, average fly ball distance? Check.

Judge also has two other advantages that could potentially lead him past Alonso. The returns of Stanton and Josh Donaldson hypothetically mean more lineup protection, and the Yankees have an easier remaining schedule than the Mets.

Who's Winning This Thing?

Let's set aside the pursuit of 60 for a second—again, wishful thinking—and ask a more basic question: Will it be Alonso or Judge who ends up as MLB's home run leader for 2023?

Turning to actual projections for the remainder of the year, ZiPS says Judge:

• Judge: 48
• Alonso: 47

And then there's Steamer, which favored Alonso as of Thursday:

• Alonso: 47
• Judge: 46

Thus robbed of a chance to chicken out and point to a meticulously calculated outcome, we have no choice but to consult the crystal ball that rests on a bed of tea leaves inside our gut.

"Pick Judge," it says, and who are we to disagree?

He's technically the underdog right now, but a big reason it's a race at all is because Judge has cranked a league-high 12 long balls since coming off the IL on May 9. He's looked as locked in as he was throughout 2022, if not more so. He's not offering at pitchers' pitches and he's crushing mistake after mistake after mistake.

There are faint whispers coming from the ball that Alonso should want it more. With his first foray into free agency due up after 2023, it's not too early to be in salary-drive mode. And Judge, of course, can vouch for the riches that are out there after a home run binge.

But as non-quantifiable things go, Judge's experience trumps whatever ambitions Alonso may have. He's the only one of the two who not only knows what it's like to push for as many as 60 home runs, but has also proven he can withstand the pressure that comes with it.

In any case, the race is on. May the best New York-based deliverer of dingers win.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.