NBA Draft 2023: Latest Mock Predictions from Industry Experts After NBA Finals

The 2023 NBA draft is less than a week away, which makes this peak mock draft season.

As front offices and scouting staffs put together their final analysis of this draft class, plugged-in reporters and draft experts are doing the same. While mock projections remain fluid until the talent grab tips off—remember when Jabari Smith Jr. was a lock to go No. 1 last year until suddenly he wasn't?—draft boards are close to crystallizing at this point.

So, what are the experts saying about this draft? We'll check out three of the latest mocks—ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo, The Athletic's Sam Vecenie and Sporting News' Kyle Irving—to find out.

While the draft always features some unexpected twists and turns, the San Antonio Spurs are guaranteed to take French 7-footer Victor Wembanyama with the No. 1 pick. He's such an elite, generational prospect that if a zombie apocalypse broke out between now and next Thursday, the Spurs would try to ride it out long enough to submit the selection.

Get to the second pick, though, and that's where the uncertainty starts.

G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson was long regarded as the second-best prospect in this class, but Alabama swingman Brandon Miller made it a discussion as the year played out. The Charlotte Hornets, who hold the No. 2 pick, having a much bigger need at wing than in the backcourt, which perhaps gives Miller an even greater chance of getting to Buzz City.

The ESPN tandem and Irving both went with Miller, but each added a caveat. Givony noted that Henderson "helped his standing in Charlotte with a highly impressive workout" and added that "the possibility of New Orleans (who are fans of Henderson) offering Brandon Ingram in a trade for the No. 2 pick could shake things up." Irving, meanwhile, wrote, "I'm still confident Henderson is the second-best player in this draft class."

Vecenie went with Henderson, though added, "this is still entirely up in the air." Vecenie also argued against the notion "Miller is unequivocally a better fit than Henderson," noting Henderson's explosiveness and mid-range scoring could be a good complement to LaMelo Ball's distributing and long-distance shooting.

Recently, most mock drafts slotted Overtime Elite playmaker Amen Thompson into the No. 4 spot as the Houston Rockets' first selection. Two of these three mocks don't, though, instead sending Villanova wing Cam Whitmore to Space City.

Interestingly, all three mocks mentioned the possibility of Houston adding James Harden in free agency as a potentially major factor in this pick.

"If the Rockets are fixed on bringing All-Star guard James Harden back to Houston in free agency to expedite their rebuild, then they won't need Amen Thompson," Irving wrote.

Vecenie cited the Harden-to-Houston talk as what "makes me slide with Whitmore." Woo, meanwhile, went with Thompson, but noted Harden's possible return as "one potential factor in the decision."

While you can learn plenty from an individual mock, the best information can often come from consensus opinions. That lessens the subjectivity of a single evaluator and adds more voices to the conversation.

Studying trends here, both the top 10 and the lottery are fairly cemented. There were nine different players who cracked the top 10 (in various orders beyond No. 1) in all three mocks: Wembanyama, Miller, Henderson, Whitmore, Amen Thompson, Ausar Thompson, Houston forward Jarace Walker, Arkansas guard Anthony Black and UCF forward Taylor Hendricks.

Beyond that group, another two players made the lottery in all three mocks: Kansas swingman Gradey Dick and Indiana guard Jalen Hood-Schifino.

That leaves three non-consensus choices in every lottery. Three were lottery picks on two mocks: Duke center Dereck Lively II, Kentucky guard Cason Wallace and French wing Bilal Coulibaly. The others who only made one mock were: Michigan guard Kobe Bufkin (No. 12 for Woo), UConn guard Jordan Hawkins (No. 12 for Irving) and Baylor guard Keyonte George (No. 14 for Irving).