The Most Intriguing NBA Players and Teams of Free Agency

We’re in the early stages of what should be a fascinating offseason as teams balance the stipulations of the new CBA with a desire to take advantage of a relatively level playing field. Owners who just watched the Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers go on deep playoff runs after barely making the postseason are asking their general managers, “Why can’t that be us?”

We’ve already seen significant cost cutting (it’s what the Golden State Warriors’ acquisition of Chris Paul was all about), major shifts in direction (the Washington Wizards finally traded Bradley Beal), and aggression take precedence over patience (the Boston Celtics shockingly traded Marcus Smart).

What will happen next? Here are several scattered thoughts about a bunch of interesting teams and players as we enter a most pivotal free agency period.

Can the Miami Heat Run It Back?

How much of the Heat’s magical run to the Finals is replicable, and how much was induced by dark-art magic? On the one hand, they led the NBA in roster continuity from the 2021-22 season, when they were a 1-seed that came within inches of reaching the Finals. This year, they were disciplined, well-coached, and ravaged by injuries.

On the other hand, Miami was never dominant even when whole. Injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo, Julius Randle, Malcolm Brogdon, and—with Miami on the road in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals—Jayson Tatum help explain their ascent, to varying degrees. And in the Finals, the Heat’s lack of size, underwhelming shot creation, and overreliance on outside shooting were exposed by a juggernaut.

The Offer Sheet

Will Portland finally give in and trade Dame Lillard? We’re keeping a close watch on all of the biggest free agents, trade targets, retirement bluffers, and more in our new offseason tracker.

And then there was an all-time heat check (sorry) from behind the arc. Against the Bucks and Celtics, Miami had two of the five “luckiest” 3-point shooting series since 2014 (minimum 100 attempts). Everyone who needed to get hot—Caleb Martin, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Duncan Robinson, and Kevin Love—went scorched earth at the same time. Even if Pat Riley, Andy Elisburg, and Erik Spoelstra have faith that what they saw in those series is real, maintaining it all despite new CBA-induced restraints will be a bear.

With just nine players under contract next season, the Heat are only $3.4 million below the second tax apron. Strus, Vincent, and Love are not among them. That makes three starters who are all eligible for new deals.

Will Miami keep any or all of them? Strus is the best of the bunch, making him the most coveted and costly. (One of my favorite free agent–team fits is Strus to Cleveland for the full midlevel.) Losing him would sting, but it wouldn’t be the end of the world for Miami. Tyler Herro turns 24 next year, and assuming Victor Oladipo picks up his player option and eventually recovers from another serious injury, he may contribute in the backcourt as well.

None of this is plan A, of course. The Heat are star hunting. With 33-year-old Jimmy Butler further solidifying himself as a postseason performer for the ages—Finals flameout notwithstanding—the window to win is right now.

Beal would’ve been an attractive fit, but he chose Phoenix instead, leaving Damian Lillard as far and away the most attractive name who might be available. If that chase ends before it starts, Miami will have to roll over the same supplementary pieces it had for the past two seasons. Both were undeniably a success, but wear and tear are a concern; missing the play-in may be more likely than another playoff run.

The Post–John Collins Atlanta Hawks

If there ever was an appropriate time for the Hawks to get rid of Collins’s contract—which has about $78 million left on it through 2026—it was yesterday, value be damned. And that’s exactly what they did. Knowing they were $5.4 million over the tax, with Dejounte Murray eligible for an extension and looking for a massive payday, the Hawks put years of Collins trade rumors behind them by sending him to Utah for Rudy Gay and a second-round pick.

There’s no need to slash more payroll, but that doesn’t mean Atlanta should be static. Opening up more playing time for Atlanta’s burgeoning, inexpensive, young core of Onyeka Okongwu, Jalen Johnson, AJ Griffin, and incoming 15th pick Kobe Bufkin makes some sense. Quin Snyder did not sign up for a rebuild, though. It’ll be interesting to see how Atlanta threads the needle between improving upon two straight first-round exits and being petrified of the luxury tax. Acupuncture over reconstructive surgery.

Fred VanVleet, a.k.a. Steady Freddy

Is VanVleet a smidge overrated? Possibly. There were 49 players who averaged at least 15 shots per game last season, and VanVleet’s 39.3 field goal percentage ranked 49th. Out of 77 players who drove the ball at least 500 times, his minus-1.82 quantified shooter impact was 73rd. De’Aaron Fox made 68.4 percent of his driving layups last year; VanVleet finished at 47.8 percent. An inefficient point guard is anathema to any head coach who craves efficient offense.

He turns 30 in February, is undersized, and has logged a ton of minutes since becoming a full-time starter. But FVV is still surgical enough to nudge a contender over the top or shepherd a promising rebuild that could really use his organizational skills. He’s patient and sharp and always knows where his release valves are before he motors into the paint. If you’re open, VanVleet will find you. After the pass, he relocates quickly and won’t hesitate to skip it over to another open teammate.

Possible contenders like the Lakers, Clippers, Sixers, and Mavericks should keep their eyes peeled. Upstarts like the Spurs, Rockets, Jazz, and possibly Magic would also work. Picture VanVleet as Victor Wembanyama’s first NBA point guard, in lineups that have spacing and athleticism. It’s the type of role that could redefine how VanVleet is remembered if everything unfurls the way that the Spurs hope the next few years will.

Teams that aren’t bad but definitely aren’t good, like the Bulls, should see VanVleet as a smooth rudder, though acquiring him won’t be easy.

Damian Lillard and the Portland Trail Blazers

It’s easy to understand why rumors are swirling around Lillard right now. He’s at once loyal to the Blazers and increasingly impatient on a team that hasn’t won a playoff series in four years and just drafted a potential superstar who plays his position.

A league-altering trade is definitely possible. Miami, Brooklyn, New Orleans, and any other mystery team that has tradable assets, an itch to win, and the willingness to spend lots of money will get in on the action.

But, depending on Lillard’s desire—will he be satisfied in Portland if its roster is punchy and playoff-bound, or does it need to be bulletproof?—there’s a way for everyone involved to have their cake and eat it too.

Here’s how: Re-sign Jerami Grant and Matisse Thybulle. Get a modest leap from Shaedon Sharpe, Rookie of the Year–esque liveliness from Scoot Henderson, and competent minutes out of Kris Murray and/or Rayan Rupert (who sees Lillard’s buddy Mikal Bridges as an on-court inspiration). Then spend the midlevel exception on rugged versatility, like Dillon Brooks or Grant Williams.

Maybe Portland will get lucky and land a reliable innings eater like Harrison Barnes—who’s played more minutes over the past four years than everyone except Mikal Bridges, Julius Randle, and Jayson Tatum. Or maybe it can use the trade exception from the Gary Payton II deal to absorb someone like Taurean Prince, Delon Wright, or Cody Martin.

Portland’s defense has been fine with Jusuf Nurkic on the court, but it just feels like having him at the 5 puts a ceiling on how good this team can be. He is always hurt, doesn’t give maximum effort even when healthy, and can’t finish at the rim like other big men do. Nurkic is skilled but will try your patience; upgrading at center is a necessity whether Lillard stays or goes.

But taking on Nurk’s contract (about $55 million over the next three years) without draft compensation attached to it is a nonstarter for other teams. Portland has a bunch of second-round picks to dangle, but, short of negotiating a change to the protections on a future first-rounder it owes Chicago, it can’t offer a first-round pick until 2030.

Would the Knicks swap Mitchell Robinson for Nurk and a couple of seconds? Would the Wizards agree to something similar with Daniel Gafford? Could Jakob Poeltl take Portland’s midlevel (assuming Nurkic is moved elsewhere or is even involved in a sign-and-trade)? These aren’t neat solutions. Finding one isn’t easy, but it may be imperative.

And then there’s Anfernee Simons, who’s easier to trade but harder to part with. He just turned 24, is on a decent contract, and has already established himself as a scalding deep threat who can finish inside (65 percent at the rim last year is nothing to sneeze at). Everyone fawns over Sharpe’s athleticism, but Simons is the only guy on this team who’s gone to All-Star Weekend and won a dunk contest.

Several teams around the NBA should leap at the chance to add him. The Pistons might be one. They could break up their crowded frontcourt by using their cap space in a Simons-for–Isaiah Stewart swap. What about Simons to the Hornets in a sign-and-trade for P.J. Washington (who plays essentially the same position as incoming no. 2 pick Brandon Miller)?

The bottom line here is that Portland can (and maybe should) be one of the most active teams this summer without trading Lillard or Henderson. It’s not impossible to build a playoff roster by going this route. Executing it all, though, is easier said than done.

Who Will Take a Shot on Cam Johnson?

Johnson approximates what is still the NBA’s most coveted role player: a plug-and-play, knockdown 3-point shooter with size, some off-the-bounce dynamism, tangible upside, and defensive versatility. Johnson is a restricted free agent on a Nets team that—short of shedding Royce O’Neale, Joe Harris, Patty Mills, or a couple of other redundant contracts—could go into the luxury tax if it re-signs him.

Even though he’s 27 years old and not necessarily the cleanest timeline fit, any of the several rebuilding teams that can clear enough cap space to make a serious offer should be enthusiastic about trying to pry Johnson away from Brooklyn. The Rockets? You know it! Spurs? Sure! Pistons? Absolutely! Jazz? 1,000 percent! Even if his contract is nine figures (which should happen), it won’t be an albatross. The services Johnson provides aren’t going out of style anytime soon.

The Los Angeles Clippers at a Crossroads

Will L.A. extend Kawhi Leonard and Paul George on massive contracts that will all but ensure a painful luxury tax bill—its penalty alone next season is slated to be at least $155 million—and severe cap-related restrictions for the foreseeable future? This is far and away the most significant question facing the Clippers right now.

If no extensions are signed, a flood of questions will follow about this organization’s possible desire to downshift. But before any deals with their two franchise stars can be reached (Leonard can’t sign anything until July 12, and George isn’t eligible until September 1), the Clippers still have other questions to figure out.

Next up is what they will do at the point guard position. After backing out of a three-team trade that would’ve landed them Malcolm Brogdon and then watching Chris Paul get traded to the Warriors 24 hours later, the Clippers are down two viable options.

Is the answer Russell Westbrook? Will L.A. make a push for VanVleet? How about calling Washington and asking about assist-to-turnover-ratio gods Tyus Jones and Monte Morris? Simply handing the keys to Terance Mann wouldn’t be the worst option.

A consolidation trade is still possible too. Eric Gordon, Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum, and Robert Covington are all on expiring contracts. John Collins would’ve made a lot of sense here before the Jazz pounced on him. It almost definitely won’t happen, but Norm Powell, Morris, and a future first for Karl-Anthony Towns is the type of trade that shouldn’t shock anyone after seeing Minnesota re-sign Naz Reid. This may be the best—or only—opportunity for the Wolves to get off Towns’s supermax, and if any owner is willing to take on that contract, it’s Steve Ballmer.

Fire Up the Trade Machine for the Philadelphia 76ers

Whether James Harden comes back or not, Tobias Harris for Zach LaVine is my favorite random, hypothetical, one-for-one trade that needs to be put into the universe but probably won’t happen. Even though it’s likely to avoid the tax next year, Chicago does the trade to get off LaVine’s salary without taking a significant hit in short-term production and then has the option to essentially start all over next summer and rebuild through free agency, with DeMar DeRozan about to become an unrestricted free agent. The Bulls don’t operate this way because they’re stubborn and depressing, but if Philly is willing to throw in any kind of draft capital, they should probably do it.

The Sixers, meanwhile, exchange one of their weaker links for a dynamic All-Star talent. Yes, there’s some overlap here between LaVine and Tyrese Maxey on a team that’s desperate for more defensive stoppers. But Harden, Maxey, LaVine, P.J. Tucker, and Joel Embiid would be unguardable. And if Harden goes to Houston, LaVine is nice insurance.

Which Path Will the Houston Rockets Take This Summer?

Think of a ground-up rebuilding strategy like an attempt to retrieve a flawless diamond that’s stuck in the middle of a thick block of ice. Some organizations are forbearing enough to place it under a heat lamp and wait for it to melt. Others strap dynamite to the sides and accidentally blow their prize to bits. The most satisfying path—that balances expediency with progress—is where Houston hopes to be, pickax in hand.

The Rockets have spent the past three years ambling their way through the honeymoon phase of a total renovation. Now, with Ime Udoka replacing Stephen Silas as head coach and a hasty owner wanting last season’s hapless and unsightly product to transform into a respectable outfit, it’s a choose-your-own-adventure type of summer in Houston.

Patience is a luxury. It can also be useless when applied to a roster that’s all bones and no pulse. Houston has a few potential All-Stars on its roster, but “Which ones are worth building around?” is an open-ended question, especially with Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore now thrown into the pot.

With attractive rookie-scale contracts, draft picks, and an ability to open up $60 million in cap space, there are myriad options at Houston’s disposal. Some are more reckless than others, fast tracks to raising the short-term floor as the long-term ceiling collapses. The simplest is filling their cap space with a veteran free agent or two: James Harden, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Kyrie Irving, Fred VanVleet, Dillon Brooks, Cam Johnson, Austin Reaves, Grant Williams, and so many others are affordable.

A more aggressive approach would be to package future picks—they own Brooklyn’s first-round picks in 2024 and 2026 and owe a pair of top-four-protected picks to Oklahoma City in the same years—with young talent and exchange them for more established stars who are currently under contract. In theory, think someone like Damian Lillard, Jaylen Brown, Towns, Pascal Siakam, Julius Randle, or Paul George. Deandre Ayton doesn’t rise to that level but shouldn’t be ruled out as a potential target, regardless of what Phoenix is currently saying about his trade status.

The possibilities are endless for the Rockets. It’ll be interesting to see just how insistent they are about shaking things up.

Utah Jazz, Offseason Wild Card

Utah’s decision to absorb Collins was brilliant. The team got better without coughing up any first-round picks and—depending on what Jordan Clarkson and Talen Horton-Tucker do with their player options, as well as what Utah does with Kelly Olynyk’s non-guaranteed contract—can still have enough cap space to either take on more unwanted salary or dole out a hefty contract.

The Jazz’s flexibility is unmatched. They have more future draft picks to play with than just about anyone and can afford to build on their current timeline, knowing Lauri Markkanen is a star. Everything is still on the table. All eyes should be locked on Utah for the foreseeable future.