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The No. 1 pick in this year’s NHL draft is nearly a foregone conclusion. Connor Bedard has been earmarked to go first since he was 15, and two dominant seasons with the Regina Pats of the Western Hockey League solidified his status as a player who could be a generational talent.

But after the Chicago Blackhawks make the first selection at Nashville’s Bridgestone Arena on Wednesday night, much of the draft is up in the air. Anaheim, Columbus, San Jose and Montreal round out the top five picks. The Washington Capitals are selecting at No. 8 — their first top-10 pick since 2007, when they used the fifth pick on defenseman Karl Alzner. 

Centers Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson are expected to be among the top four picks, but how the first round plays out is likely to depend on the draft’s biggest wild card — winger Matvei Michkov.

The 5-foot-10, 172-pound Russian is a dynamic offensive talent with high-level vision and creativity. His skating isn’t a standout attribute, but Michkov’s puck-handling skills are some of the best in the draft, and his ability to create offense is second only to Bedard’s.

Michkov starred as a 16-year-old at the 2021 under-18 world championships and the Hlinka Gretzky Cup, the top international tournaments for under-18 players. He was the leading scorer at both events, even though he was two years younger than his competitors. But after the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia was removed from participation in international hockey events, so Michkov hasn’t  competed alongside his peers on the world stage. Under-18 and under-20 tournaments are marquee events for evaluating draft prospects. They allow scouts to make direct comparisons between players in the same age group.

“At the U18 championships in the U.S. that were hosted in Dallas, [Michkov and Bedard] both got better and better as the tournament went on, again as the youngest players on their team,” Dan Marr, the head of NHL Central Scouting, said at the draft combine in early June. “They are in the same conversation. It’s just difficult when you can’t see a player live.”

This season, after a loan to Sochi from St. Petersburg gave him more playing time in the Kontinental Hockey League, Michkov scored nine goals and totaled 20 points in 27 games — the best points-per-game rate for a draft-eligible player since the KHL’s founding in 2008.

The inability to see Michkov play in person is part of what makes him difficult to evaluate. Some NHL teams removed their scouts from Russia, though the Capitals do have a scout, Andrei Nikolishin, in the country. Michkov was unable to attend the draft combine, where teams conduct the majority of their pre-draft interviews, and interactions with Michkov have been limited for most teams.

Michkov will be at the draft, so many teams have been trying to schedule final interviews with him in Nashville. Last week, Capitals assistant general manager Ross Mahoney, who leads the team’s amateur scouting, said Washington was still working to finalize its interviews in Nashville so he couldn’t give a “definitive answer” on whether Michkov would be among them.

Matthias Hangst

Another complicating factor is Michkov’s contract with St. Petersburg, which runs through the 2025-26 season. That kind of commitment has long made NHL teams wary, though Mahoney was clear that the Capitals’ ethos of being patient with their prospects makes the contract term a nonissue.

Few players are ready to be in the NHL immediately after they are drafted, so a three-year wait for Michkov is within the normal range for development.

“If we draft a player out of, let’s say, the Saskatoon Blades in the Western Hockey League, he’s going to go back and play two more years of junior hockey for sure,” Mahoney said. “He’s probably going to go to Hershey for a year or two. Well, that’s all of a sudden like having a four-year contract in the sense of being able to come over and play for the Capitals.”

Many draft evaluators have pegged Washington as a potential landing spot for Michkov — if he’s still on the board. As the draft has drawn closer, the potential range for Michkov’s selection has vacillated frequently, with some suggesting he could be a surprise pick by the Ducks at No. 2, some sure he’ll go to the Sharks at No. 4 and still others confident he’ll be available for the Capitals.

Last year, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2022/07/07/capitals-draft-ivan-miroshnichenko/" target=_blank>Washington selected Russian forward Ivan Miroshnichenko</a>, who missed much of his draft season after being diagnosed with Hodgkin lymphoma, at No. 20. Their recent draft history, as well as their history with Russian players as an organization, suggests that taking a swing on Michkov is a chance the Capitals would be willing to take.

The draft is always an exercise in risk assessment. Even prospects who look like sure things sometimes don’t pan out as hoped. Michkov’s risk-reward calculation tilts a bit more to the risk side than the average, but the payoff on the reward side could be even greater.

“This pick is obviously important,” Mahoney said. “We treat it like any other pick that we would have. They’re all important for us. We’re trying to take the best player that’s available to us and, hopefully, make the right pick.”

Capitals will open 2023-24 against Penguins

The Capitals will open <a href="https://www.nhl.com/capitals/schedule/2023-10-01/ET" target=_blank>the 2023-24 season</a> Oct. 13 at Capital One Arena, hosting the Pittsburgh Penguins. Washington will then meet the Calgary Flames at home Oct. 16 before traveling to Ottawa and Montreal for its first road trip of the season.

In early December, as part of a five-game road trip through the Western Conference, the Capitals will face the Vegas Golden Knights, the defending Stanley Cup champions. Washington will take another five-game road trip in mid-March, traveling to Winnipeg, Edmonton, Seattle, Vancouver and Calgary.

Washington’s regular season concludes with back-to-back games; the Capitals host the Boston Bruins on April 15 before visiting Philadelphia on April 16. In total, Washington will play 15 sets of back-to-back games this season.

University of Michigan, BA in communications

Bailey Johnson joined The Washington Post in 2023 as the Washington Capitals beat writer. She previously covered the Columbus Blue Jackets and the Columbus Crew for the Columbus Dispatch. 

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