A month into the 2023 MLB season, it looked like Ronald Acuña Jr. might finally emerge as an NL MVP favorite. Now at the halfway point of the campaign, it looks like he's running away with the award. But if he and the surging Braves keep getting hotter as the weather gets warmer, they might start knocking on the door of history.
Atlanta owns a .658 winning percentage — with five more wins (and fewer losses) than the next-best NL club — and Brian Snitker's gang has won 12 of its past 13 games. And it's been a team effort — they lead the majors in collective batting average, OBP, slugging, and home runs, with 20 long-balls separating them from the Dodgers in second.
A whopping eight Braves could realistically make the 2023 All-Star Game, with Cy Young candidate Spencer Strider likely one of the favorites to start for the National League. Top to bottom, this is a squad that nobody wants to see right now — never mind in October.
But the dominator of all dominators, the best player on the best team in the NL, the guy taking over baseball right now...is Acuña. And as bettors, we need to start figuring out where we can get our wagers down on the self-proclaimed "El Abusador" before it's too late.
Let's dive into just how incredible Acuña has been this season, and what kind of value-driven action we can still get on him and his Braves brethren on BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
Ronald Acuna Jr. — The best of the best...and a growing best bet
Acuña is about as easy an MLB player as there is to write about, because one never needs to use hyperbole when describing his game. He's the perfect embodiment of a five-tool player — he mashes the ball with eye-popping force, dashes from base to base in a blur, fields right field as well as anyone in the bigs, and guns runners down with effortless ease. His game is poetry in motion, and his 2023 stats have started to evolve into a magnum opus.
Acuña leads the majors with 68 runs, paces the NL with 35 stolen bases, and trails only world-beating hitman Luis Arraez for best average in the bigs (.330 — Arraez is hitting an unfathomable .399). He's on pace for across-the-board numbers the longest continually-running major league team has never seen: 39 home runs, 75 steals, and 143 runs.
Many in the Braves' illustrious 152-year history have reached one or two of these numbers individually — but no one has ever combined for all three of them. And if Acuña can finish with 140 runs, he would be just the second in organizational history to do so since Hugh Duffy with the Boston Beaneaters in 1893.
So, yeah, we're witnessing history. And yours truly is ecstatic to have bet on Acuña to win MVP months ago before he skyrocketed up to -200 odds on BetMGM. And while that's not even close to Shohei Ohtani's insane -700 odds to win AL MVP, it's still a 67 percent implied winning probability.
That's pretty wild, especially in a league with Diamondbacks rookie phenom Corbin Carroll and former MVPs Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. As far as oddsmakers are concerned, NL MVP is Acuña's to lose. But how should we proceed as bettors? Here's eight wagers we're making on Acuna and the Braves.
Acuna's odds to win NL MVP — Still a best bet despite the shortened odds?
We don't typically recommend making futures bets of -175 or shorter, but we wouldn't blame you in the least if you pulled the trigger on Acuña to win MVP at -180 on DraftKings. It may seem lame to risk $100 now for the chance at a $155 payout in four months — or $200 for a chance at a $311 payout — but a win is a win, and Acuna winning this award sure feels like a sure thing as long as he stays healthy. You just don't typically see someone slashing .330/.400/.568, leading the majors in runs, pacing the NL in steals, total bases, and OPS, and ranking in the top seven in the bigs in homers. That's generational stuff.
Other Acuna-related bets to attack — Exotic props and signature player parlays
Of course, other wagering options exist for bettors who prefer getting plus odds in the futures market. FanDuel features a +1300 prop parlay on Acuña winning NL MVP and Spencer Strider winning NL Cy Young. That's pretty damn cool, and also fairly good odds on a prop that's very friggin' winnable. Strider has an NL-leading nine wins compared to just two losses, an MLB-leading 146 strikeouts, and just 32 walks in 91.2 innings.
A month ago, we got in on a Carroll and Zac Gallen prop parlay that calls for Carroll to win NL Rookie of the Year and Gallen to win NL Cy Young. This one feels like a good hedge in case Gallen falls apart in the second half of the season. With apologies to 35-year-old Clayton Kershaw, Cy Young will more than likely be a two-man race to October between the younger Strider and Gallen.
Making your own player award parlay — an ROY, Cy Young, and MVP buffet!
Bless the hearts of our friends at FanDuel — they actually allow us to create our own parlays using player awards and other futures props. That's pretty rare — typically sportsbooks don't want us combining plus-odds props with one another for massive payouts or trimming away the juice on heavily-favored awards candidates by parlaying them. But we'll take it! Just last night, yours truly put in two custom-made player award parlays:
-
Ronald Acuña to win NL MVP, Shohei Ohtani to win AL MVP, and Shane McClanahan to win AL Cy Young (+545)
- Ronald Acuña to win NL MVP, Shohei Ohtani to win AL MVP, and Corbin Carroll to win NL Rookie of the Year (+113)
The first one yields better odds because McClanahan has stiffer competition in the AL, but I think he's running away with Cy Young honors this year. He's an MLB-best 11-1 with an MLB-low 2.23 ERA along with a 1.11 WHIP and just 35 walks in 93 innings. Mac, Acuña, and Carroll are far from Ohtani locks, but they're damn good bets to win their respective hardware this October.
Betting on Acuna to join the exclusive (and elusive) 40-40 club
We saved the best for last — FanDuel strikes again! They have a prop entitled "Will Ronald Acuña Jr. Join the 40-40 Club in the 2023 Season? (40 Home Runs & 40 Stolen Bases)" Yes: +280. No: -390. That's pretty intriguing, as Acuña could hit 40 steals by July and his power swing just started heating up this month. He has eight home runs in just 23 June games, easily his most dingers of any month this season and the Braves still have two games left until July.
Acuña's on pace for 38.8 home runs right now, so if he can capitalize on the warm weather and maintain strong rest-of-summer numbers he will be able to hit 40 bombs easily and become just the fifth player in MLB history to join the 40/40 club (the other four: Jose Canseco, Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Alfonso Soriano).
Betting on the Braves to win the NL, NLCS, and/or World Series
If player awards betting isn't for you, you can also bet on Acuña's squad and just root for the Braves the rest of the way. From experience, I can tell you that they're a damn fun team to watch. The bonds these players and coaches all have with one another is unmistakable, and their pitching, hitting, and fielding success seems to rub off on each other. I'm all-in — I bet Atlanta +370 to win the World Series (FanDuel), +170 to win the NL (FD), and +105 to finish the 2023 regular season with the best record (DraftKings). Come on into the Atlanta waters, sports bettors — the water's nice and warm. In fact, thanks to Acuña, Strider, and company, it might be the hottest in the 152-year history of the Braves organization.