Winners and Losers of the Alex DeBrincat to the Red Wings Trade

The writing was on the wall when the Red Wings and Filip Zadina's guaranteed $5 million parted ways a few days ago: The next phase of GM Steve Yzerman's "Yzerplan" was likely upon us.

And that next move? Well, we've been patient enough as Detroit has been taking calculated step after step the past few seasons. Finally, they've constructed a team strong enough to take the biggest jump of the rebuild and acquire another star forward.

This happened Sunday night, as the Red Wings snagged Detroit native Alex DeBrincat from the Senators for a conditional (Detroit can choose between their own and Boston's) 2024 first-round pick, Dominik Kubalik, Donovan Sebrango, and a 2024 fourth-round pick.

DeBrincat has a four-year, $7.875 million AAV extension in place with the Red Wings. There's a lot to unpack about this Sunday night deal, so let's get into it with some winners and losers.

DeBrincat has two 40-goal seasons under his belt already at 25 years old and he accomplished that task on pretty weak teams -- it's not like his numbers were pumped up too hard by his teammates.

He lost a bit of his finishing touch last season, dropping from 41 goals and 78 points in 82 games with Chicago in 2021-22 to 27 goals and 66 points in 82 games with Ottawa in 2022-23. His shooting percentage dropped from 15.2 percent to 10.3 percent, so you figure there's a good chance something as luck-based as that can come back up again, especially with the help of someone like Dylan Larkin.

When DeBrincat is on top of his game, he's an electric, creative, offense-producing forward who will generate quality chances and finish off shots. The Red Wings need exactly that as they've constructed the right depth throughout the rebuild, but are lacking the clutch scoring only high-end talent can produce.

Then there's the extension. There's no doubt, even with DeBrincat's down 2022-23, that he was expected to command something in the eight-by-eight range. Instead, I'd consider the four-year, $7.875 AAV contract a hometown deal, especially when you consider the cap is allegedly going to skyrocket in the next three offseasons that DeBrincat will now be locked up for on something of a bridge deal.

All of this is great news for the Red Wings. You've got the hometown kid looking to prove himself and taking less money to be there.

Yes, Detroit had to give up a first-rounder, a middle-six player and an enticing prospect, but it was worth it at this stage in the Yzerplan that was growing more urgent.

There has been much criticism and naysaying surrounding the "Yzerplan" as it enters its fifth year of existence and even the biggest believers (myself included) were starting to get impatient. There are only so many times you can watch poor Moritz Seider shoulder 700 minutes per game and a -500 plus-minus through no fault of his own to go with it.

There is only so many crying Dylan Larkin press conferences I can mentally handle as another one of his friends is shipped off to greener pastures.

For Larkin's wellbeing and career reputation, I'm glad he has someone like DeBrincat to cook with now. And for those of us who have remained faithful in the Yzerplan, the DeBrincat deal could be a very fun victory lap.

That said, he has to prove us right this season. I have a feeling he will.

While the Red Wings are the true winners in this scenario, the Senators aren't exactly losers. Senators GM Pierre Dorion made it clear that Ottawa was aware of DeBrincat's value and wasn't going to "trade him for pennies" despite his down year, and they didn't.

All things -- finding a trade partner DeBrincat would sign with, lack of leverage, cap space -- considered, the Senators came off pretty well, here. Kubalik is a solid middle-six winger coming off a record season with 20 goals and 45 points in 81 games. He's signed for one more year at a $2.5 million cap hit, which agrees with the Senators' situation. He isn't a DeBrincat replacement, but that was always going to be an unrealistic return expectation.

Then you've got 2020 third-round pick and 21-year-old defense prospect Sebrango, who could make it to the NHL. He's not projected anywhere near a top pairing, but he's got a strong defensive skillset and Senators fans should keep a legitimate eye on him.

On top of two interesting pieces, the Senators get a first-round pick in next year's draft and a fourth-round pick. This isn't the best haul I've ever seen in my life in comparative situations, but it's pretty dang good under the circumstances. As confusing as the Senators are right now (Will they go for another playoff run or suffer without DeBrincat?) it was just unrealistic for them to keep him around at a $9 million cap hit this year.

It's not every day you see inter-division trading like this deal between the Senators and the Red Wings, but here we are. It's sort of funny that the Senators were forced to salvage the highest return from a team in a similar, playoff-fringe position in the same division as them. But that's showbiz in the era of the flat cap, baby.

The Atlantic Division and Eastern Conference as a whole are just absolutely stacked with perennial playoff teams and it's safe to say the Red Wings have officially entered the chat now.

In the Atlantic alone, you've got the Maple Leafs, the Bruins, the Panthers and the Lightning as four teams that refuse to go away (when it comes to qualifying for the playoffs at least). You've got the Sabres finally in a position to erase their league-longest playoff drought. I'm not willing to count the Senators totally out yet with Claude Giroux and Jakob Chychrun in the mix and surely a healthier team. Then you've got the next step in the Yzerplan when it comes to the Red Wings.

And that's just the Atlantic Division! It's going to be another exhilarating end-of-the-year push in the East, that's for sure.

On one hand, this is probably an underpay for DeBrincat at his best and he's missing out on what is sure to be a much more lucrative market in the next four years.

On the other hand, DeBrincat was decidedly not at his best last season and there is some element of needing to prove himself. He's also only 25 and will likely get one more huge contract if he does, in fact, "prove himself."

He's also back in his hometown with the team he grew up idolizing, at the apex of a rebuild. He could be a huge element of bringing the once iconic Red Wings back to glory, under the one-and-only Steve Yzerman. He's setting himself up for success, a big role in a potentially big return to playoffs, and a sense of urgency that could lead to some career seasons.

I love this for DeBrincat.