After a protracted courtship, the Tennessee Titans are expected to sign All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins, CBS Sports NFL Insider Jonathan Jones confirmed. The two-year contract will pay him $26 million in 2023 and 2024, including as much as $15 million during the first season, according to NFL Media.
Hopkins can earn up to $3 million in incentives each season, with up to $1 million in bonuses available based on his total number of receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns.
SportsLine's Stephen Oh projected the impact of the signing, and it significantly raised Tennessee's chances of winning the AFC South and making the playoffs.
| TITANS | WINS | WIN% | DIVISION | PLAYOFF | CONF | CHAMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before | 7.9 | 46.5% | 20.9% | 31.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| w/ DeAndre Hopkins | 8.3 | 48.8% | 25.8% | 37.7% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Difference | 0.4 | 2.4% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
It's easy to see why. Prior to this signing, Tennessee had one of the league's least-threatening pass-catching corps. The Titans' expected starting wide receivers were 2022 first-round pick Treylon Burks and fourth-year former undrafted free agent Nick Westbrook-Ikhine on the outside, and 2022 fifth-rounder Kyle Philips in the slot. Now, Hopkins will likely slot in across from Burks while Westbrook-Ikhine goes back to playing a role as a situational deep threat.
Hopkins has primarily been an outside receiver for the majority of his career, but it's worth noting that last year marked one of his highest rates of slot usage, so it is possible that the Titans use him that way as well. (Alignment stats below via Pro Football Focus.)
| Season | Team | Wide | Slot | Wide % | Slot % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2013 | Texans | 528 | 122 | 81.0% | 18.7% |
| 2014 | Texans | 399 | 174 | 69.3% | 30.2% |
| 2015 | Texans | 626 | 111 | 84.7% | 15.0% |
| 2016 | Texans | 570 | 161 | 77.9% | 22.0% |
| 2017 | Texans | 530 | 99 | 84.0% | 15.7% |
| 2018 | Texans | 588 | 144 | 80.3% | 19.7% |
| 2019 | Texans | 452 | 272 | 62.3% | 37.5% |
| 2020 | Cardinals | 595 | 68 | 89.6% | 10.2% |
| 2021 | Cardinals | 292 | 51 | 85.1% | 14.9% |
| 2022 | Cardinals | 282 | 106 | 72.7% | 27.3% |
As he's gotten older, Hopkins has played more of a role as a short- and medium-depth target as opposed to the true three-level threat he was earlier in his career. He had an average depth of target on 12.2 yards or higher in each of his first six NFL seasons, but has hit that mark in only one of the last four, and last season it was at 10.7 yards. Accordingly, last season's 11.2 yards per reception average marked a career-low for Hopkins.
Still, he is a quality threat who is able to handle significant volume. His 7.1 receptions per game average last season was right in line with what he's done through most of his prime, and his 79.7 yards per game were almost exactly equal to his career average of 77.9 per game.
Of course, Tennessee's pass volume is not nearly as high as what Arizona's was during Hopkins' time there. During the four years that Derrick Henry has been the focal point of the offense, Tennessee has registered the league's second-lowest pass rate (behind only that of the Baltimore Ravens), according to Tru Media. By contrast, the Cardinals were 14th in pass rate during the same period. So, Hopkins' ability to earn significant volume may not be as much of a factor as it was in Arizona.
The threat of Hopkins as a target-earner may help open things up for the likes of Burks to make more plays down the field, though, and for second-year tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo to work up the seam. The Titans with Ryan Tannehill under center like to work play-action concepts to hit intermediate passes, and Hopkins' ability to win on routes like digs, outs, and curls, and to make contested catches, could help in that respect. The potential of Hopkins to threaten defenses in those areas of the field could also cause safeties or linebackers to drop down, opening things over the top for Burks.
Alas, it's also likely that Tannehill's time in Tennessee is almost up. The Titans drafted Will Levis at the top of the second round, and it probably won't be long before he steps into the top job. Having a target like Hopkins who can dependably win against man coverage and make tough catches in tight spaces can be incredibly valuable to a young quarterback early in his development. Even if players like Burks, Okonkwo, and Philips have potential to be high-level targets, none of them are there yet, and Hopkins' presence could prove valuable for that reason alone -- assuming Levis actually gets on the field for significant reps while Hopkins is still on the team. (With the structure of his two-year deal, it's entirely possible the 2023 season is the only one Hopkins actually plays in Tennessee.)
Fantasy impact of Hopkins joining Titans
Here's how CBS Sports fantasy guru Jamey Eisenberg sizes up the Hopkins-to-Titans move, both for the receiver and those around him.
Impact on Hopkins' fantasy value: "It's obviously not the most ideal situation for him. Kyler Murray was a good fantasy quarterback and obviously the numbers were great for Hopkins the last three seasons in Arizona when he's been healthy and on the the field and not suspended. The Titans' passing attack is not the most dynamic. It obviously upgrades the receiving corps there, but I think you just look at the volume, and that's the biggest key: Is he going to get enough volume? He's been a very good, productive receiver, but he's 31 years old now. He's not somebody I'm drafting to me a slam-dunk, must-start guy. He'll still be a top-24 receiver, but a No. 2 guy; he no longer will be ranked as a No. 1 receiver for me. So not somebody I'm drafting until probably Round 5."
Impact on Ryan Tannehill's fantasy value: "Huge boost for Tannehill. They had WR Treylon Burks and TE Chigoziem Okonkwo, two guys I was excited about -- now obviously not so much -- but now they have an alpha, a lead receiver here. So Tannehill goes from being a guy who was probably not going to get drafted in two-quarterback and superflex leagues to a very safe No. 2 quarterback now. Give Tannehill some credit: He's been a good running quarterback, he's certainly got production out of the guys who he's been with. So this makes Tannehill certainly much more sustainable, but they've got to win for him to keep the job. Otherwise, you might see Will Levis under center.
Impact on Treylon Burks and Chigoziem Okonkwo's fantasy value: "The ceiling gets much lower because Hopkins typically dominates targets. I think Burks still becomes somebody you can draft as a No. 4 receiver in the Round 8-9 range. Okonkwo was somebody I was targeting as a breakout tight end, but now you can't put him in that category because the targets just won't be there for him. But he's still somebody you can draft as a low-end starter."
Impact on Derrick Henry's fantasy value: "I don't think much changes for him. Not a real threat in the receiving game. Maybe it opens things up a little bit in terms of teams stacking the line of scrimmage. He still is what he is: A 29-year-old running back, somebody I would still prefer to draft in Round 2 as opposed to Round 1."
