Over/Under Win Predictions for Every NFL Team in 2023

At this point in the NFL offseason, it's easy to convince yourself that any team will win more games than it did last year. That's because injuries haven't generally hit, and we're yet to see the realities associated with rookie growing pains, sophomore slumps, veteran plateaus and the like.

Of course, the reality is about half of the league's teams will be worse in 2023 than they were last season.

Here, we try to offer a dose of that reality with over/under win predictions based on DraftKings Sportsbook for each squad.

Buffalo Bills (Over/Under 10.5): Over with 13 projected wins

Buffalo won 13 games last year but outscored its opponents by a league-high 10.6 points per game. The Bills' three losses came by a combined eight points. On paper, they look just as strong. Still, the schedule's tough in a strong division.

Miami Dolphins (O/U 9.5): Over with 10 projected wins

There's a lot of room for this to fluctuate based on whether Tua Tagovailoa holds up, but this offseason has been encouraging, so we'll give an extremely talented team the benefit of the doubt after a 9-8 2022 campaign.

New England Patriots (O/U 7.5): Under with 7 projected wins

Bill Belichick is Bill Belichick, and the defense should be very strong again. Still, it's hard to buy into a Mac Jones-quarterbacked team in this division, and the Patriots' offseason didn't inspire much confidence. They went just 2-5 to finish the 2022 campaign, and I wouldn't be surprised if that trend continued into 2023.

New York Jets (O/U 9.5): Under with 8 projected wins

Sorry, but I don't believe in Aaron Rodgers after his numbers absolutely plummeted in 2022. Why should we expect that to change as he approaches his 40th birthday? In terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders, the Jets were slightly better than their 7-10 record last year. With Rodgers but in a tough division, I'll bump that to eight. That might be generous.

Baltimore Ravens (O/U 9.5): Over with 11 projected wins

This is a very balanced division, so we're keeping expectations in check across the board in the North. The Ravens won 10 last year despite Lamar Jackson missing five. You have to believe they can build on that a little in 2023.

Cincinnati Bengals (O/U 11.5): Over with 13 projected wins

The Bengals haven't lost a regular-season game since last Halloween, and Joe Burrow and Co. should only keep building on a 12-4 2022 campaign. Love that Orlando Brown Jr. coup.

Cleveland Browns (O/U 9.5): Over with 10 projected wins

We're underrating a team that is finally on track to get a full season from Deshaun Watson, who is still the third-highest-rated qualified passer in NFL history and has the support of stars Nick Chubb and Myles Garrett. Throw in a great offensive line and these guys should be in the thick of it.

Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U 8.5): Under with 7 projected wins

I hate doing this because it's been two decades since the well-coached, defensively stout Steelers have posted a losing record. But every trend has an end, and this division might overwhelm a Pittsburgh team that has major questions on offense.

Houston Texans (O/U 6.5): Under with 5 projected wins

The Texans are still smack dab in the midst of a full rebuild. There's more potential variability here because you never know with rookies C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr., and the division isn't strong, but it's hard to see them doubling (or more) their three wins from 2022.

Indianapolis Colts (O/U 6.5): Under with 3 projected wins

Ditto for the Colts, who won four games and posted the worst scoring margin in the NFL in '22 and might have to wait to get much at all from rookie project Anthony Richardson. This is going to take some time, and '23 is going to be full of growing pains.

Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U 9.5): Under with 9 projected wins

The Jags picked up steam late in '22, and Trevor Lawrence has yet to reach his full potential. In a soft division, I'd expect them to post a winning record again. Still, the law of averages is not on their side when it comes to injury luck. Only the Steelers fared better in terms of adjusted games lost at Football Outsiders in 2022.

Tennessee Titans (O/U 7.5): Under with 7 projected wins

Mike Vrabel always has the Titans in the mix, but injuries crushed them as they fell off down the stretch last year. I wonder what that Ryan Tannehill/Derrick Henry duo has left in it, even if the Titans have better luck with injuries in '23. The roster just isn't very shiny anymore.

Denver Broncos (O/U 8.5): Over with 9 projected wins

I can't foresee Russell Wilson posting another losing record, especially with Sean Payton running the show now in Denver. This team has playoff-level ingredients, but it plays in a strong division in the stronger of the two conferences and there's still a chance Wilson is somehow toast, so I'm not getting carried away.

Kansas City Chiefs (O/U 11.5): Over with 12 projected wins

The Chiefs' three losses came by a combined 10 points last year, but they've undergone some big offensive changes and the schedule is tough for a team that will have a target on its back in a tough division and conference.

Las Vegas Raiders (O/U 7.5): Under with 6 projected wins

Jimmy Garoppolo is a huge wild card from both a health and productivity standpoint, and I have a bad feeling about that dynamic in the AFC West. The Raiders were a six-win team with a bottom-seven DVOA last year, and it's hard to confidently state they'll beat that in '23.

Los Angeles Chargers (O/U 9.5): Under with 9 projected wins

They won 10 last year and had a quiet offseason while the rest of the conference went a little wild. If Justin Herbert takes another leap, they could still build on '22. But it's still a big climb ahead.

Dallas Cowboys (O/U 9.5): Over with 12 projected wins

The Cowboys won 12 games despite the fact Dak Prescott missed five and the division was quite strong in 2022. They've added Brandin Cooks and Stephon Gilmore, and they could be pushed by the fact this feels like a make-or-break year. I'm oddly confident in a team that often disappoints to reach that win total again.

New York Giants (O/U 7.5): Under with 7 projected wins

On the other hand, I don't trust either Daniel Jones or Saquon Barkley for a Giants team that played above its head as a bottom-12 DVOA squad in 2022. Look for them to come back to earth with a drop-off from 9-7-1.

Philadelphia Eagles (O/U 11.5): Over with 12 projected wins

The Eagles had fantastic injury luck during a season in which Jalen Hurts took the league by surprise. That dynamic won't exist this year, and the law of averages isn't on their side when it comes to injuries. Don't be surprised to see some regression in a division that is always tough to predict.

Washington Commanders (O/U 6.5): Over with 8 projected wins

The defense will win Washington some games and the offense isn't void of talent, but there are some glaring holes and big questions, especially at quarterback. The Commanders again look like a .500 team at best.

Chicago Bears (O/U 7.5): Under with 6 projected wins

A three-win team from 2022, the Bears are certainly better on paper and the North should be wide open with a fairly weak schedule. Still, we're probably looking at baby steps, and there remain big questions about Justin Fields as a passer.

Detroit Lions (O/U 9.5): Over with 10 projected wins

This was a top-10 DVOA squad with a high ceiling in this division, but it's still a little tough to trust Jared Goff and the Lions in general. We know better, right? I'll give them a small bump from nine wins in 2022.

Green Bay Packers (O/U 7.5): Over with 8 projected wins

There's little reason to be fired up about the unproven Jordan Love, who isn't exactly supported by a throng of All-Pros. This is a middle-of-the-pack team at best, and the floor is quite low with Love.

Minnesota Vikings (O/U 8.5): Under with 8 projected wins

The Vikes lost some key veterans this offseason and Kirk Cousins had his limitations even when the shelf was well-stocked. This is a bottom-six DVOA squad that is likely to take a big step backward from a weird 13-win campaign.

Atlanta Falcons (O/U 8.5): Under with 7 projected wins

The Falcons are the definition of mediocre in almost every single way. There isn't enough talent on either side of the ball for them to make a run, but there's just enough to hang around .500 in a bad division. The jury's still also very much out on Desmond Ridder.

Carolina Panthers (O/U 7.5): Over with 8 projected wins

You have to applaud what they've done to support top pick Bryce Young, but the defense is still meh and you have to assume there'll be some growing pains with all of these new parts coming together for Young. The Panthers will take advantage of an easy schedule in a weak division to up their win total marginally from seven in 2022.

New Orleans Saints (O/U 9.5): Under with 9 projected wins

Derek Carr certainly gives a defensively stout team a boost overall, and the soft schedule and division factor in as well. The Saints are positioned to make a slightly bigger post-seven-win leap than Carolina, but let's not pretend the roster is anywhere near where it once was.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U 6.5): Under with 6 projected wins

It's essentially a rebuild following big changes in the trenches for a Bucs team that likely doesn't have its long-term future quarterback on the current roster. I have a feeling this will be a throw-in-the-towel year in Tampa.

Arizona Cardinals (O/U 4.5): Under with 3 projected wins

I'm not sure the Cardinals care to win much in 2023 as they contend with Kyler Murray's recovery in a strong division and look toward the future. They're worse now than they were when they won just four games in '22.

Los Angeles Rams (O/U 6.5): Over with 7 projected wins

Sure, they were smashed by injuries during a five-win '22 campaign and they still have Sean McVay, Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald. But they once again had to slash significant talent and experience this offseason, so I'm not expecting a sudden return to contender status.

San Francisco 49ers (O/U 10.5): Over with 13 projected wins

A tough schedule and quarterback questions await an otherwise extremely talented 49ers team. But injury luck wasn't really with them when they put up 13 wins while dealing with plenty of quarterback change in 2022. I trust in Kyle Shanahan and Co.

Seattle Seahawks (O/U 8.5): Over with 9 projected wins

I can't say the same about Geno Smith, whose remarkable 2022 campaign came out of nowhere and might be hard to replicate despite a strong supporting cast. His play dropped off late last season, creating a lot of variability here. Still, Seattle has improved on defense and the ingredients surrounding Smith and the venerable Pete Carroll.

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