The Perfect Move for Every 1st Place Team at 2023 MLB Trade Deadline

Per the tried and true logic of "that's just the way the world works," there are good odds that none of the first-place teams in Major League Baseball will get exactly what they want at the trade deadline.

But since that doesn't mean they can't dream, we've highlighted one move each of six might make that would be absolutely perfect.

The idea was to look for perfectly round pegs (i.e., really good and seemingly available players) for perfectly round holes (i.e., teams' problem areas) and imagine what a trade could look like. As always, Baseball Trade Values' trade simulator was helpful to the latter end.

A quick word of warning: don't expect to see any Shohei Ohtani proposals. The Los Angeles Angels probably aren't going to make the playoffs, but once can imagine that victories in six out of eight games and an overall winning record have owner Arte Moreno feeling optimistic anyway.

Why It Makes Sense

It's a good team the Orioles have. Among the ways you can tell is by how they've spent just two days under .500 all year.

But even if it hasn't blown up yet, Baltimore's starting pitching is a proverbial ticking time bomb. O's starters have a 4.55 ERA and are tied for 22nd in wins above replacement.

Because the Orioles are early in their contention cycle, it would make sense to target somebody who would stick around for a while if they're going to subtract from their MLB-best farm system. As in, not potential free agents such as Marcus Stroman, Lucas Giolito or Blake Snell.

Because he's arbitration-eligible through 2025, Chicago White Sox right-hander Dylan Cease fits the bill. And since getting off to a slow start, the 27-year-old has lately looked more like the guy who finished second in the AL Cy Young Award voting in 2022. His last nine starts have yielded a 3.00 ERA and 70 strikeouts in 51 innings.

Proposed Trade: Orioles get RHP Dylan Cease, White Sox get 3B Coby Mayo and SS Joey Ortiz

Cease reportedly isn't going to come cheap, and nor should he. In this trade, Chicago would score our No. 79 (Mayo) and No. 85 (Ortiz) prospects to be heirs to Yoán Moncada and Tim Anderson, respectively. Ortiz is a slick defender who's batting .335 at Triple-A, while Mayo recently got promoted there after posting a 1.026 OPS at Double-A.

Why It Makes Sense

It's a good thing the Twins play in the AL Central, because nowhere else would their 53-48 record be good enough for first place.

You can nonetheless squint and see the Twins as a candidate for a deep playoff run, if for no other reason than their pitching staff is arguably the best in the American League. All they need to do between now and October is get their offense up to speed.

As to where they might put a new bat, third base is practically crying out for an upgrade. The Twins don't have a set starter at the hot corner, which is to say nothing of the .674 OPS the position has produced so far.

On this market, the Twins can't do any better than Jeimer Candelario. The Washington Nationals picked him on a one-year deal after the Detroit Tigers non-tendered him last November and have been rewarded with an .807 OPS and slick defense.

Proposed Trade: Twins get 3B Jeimer Candelario, Nationals get OF Trevor Larnach and INF Austin Martin

The 29-year-old Candelario's value is hindered by his rental status, but the Nats would nonetheless do well in this deal. Larnach and Martin are both former top-100 types who are a step away from the majors at Triple-A. Larnach in particular is overqualified to be there after 177 games at the MLB level.

Why It Makes Sense

Even though the Rangers have been in first place in the AL West for all but one day this season, nobody can say they want for nothing.

Even after it gained Aroldis Chapman via a trade with the Kansas City Royals on June 30, Texas' bullpen has remained a weakness. And not a small one, either. At 6.41, Rangers relievers are responsible for the fourth-worst bullpen ERA of July.

Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported Sunday that the San Diego Padres are "likely" to shop five-time All-Star Josh Hader, but he'd be yet another left-hander in a Rangers bullpen that already has four of them. At some point, enough lefties becomes too many lefties.

As right-handers go, David Bednar is the pie in the sky for the Rangers. The 28-year-old has been an All-Star for the Pittsburgh Pirates in each of the last two years, and he's currently trafficking in peak dominance by way of a 1.15 ERA.

Proposed Trade: Rangers get RHP David Bednar, Pirates get SS/2B Luisangel Acuña, RHP Brock Porter and RHP Cole Winn

Bednar is under club control for three more seasons after 2023, so the Rangers would have to blow the Bucs away. Hence this offer, which would net Pittsburgh the No. 60 (Acuña, who is indeed Ronald Acuña Jr.'s brother) and No. 83 (Porter) prospects in MLB, plus a fallen top 100 prospect (Winn) who would serve as a sort of lottery ticket.

Why It Makes Sense

The good news? Atlanta has the best record in MLB and is pretty much guaranteed to win a sixth straight National League East title. Their lead over the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies is 11.5 games.

The bad news? Well, setting aside the club's 4-6 record in its last 10 games, the back end of the bullpen could use a boost.

Raisel Iglesias and A.J. Minter have done well enough in converting 28 of 33 save opportunities, but the latter has been out since July 8 with a shoulder injury and neither has been unhittable in general. Their combined ERA is 4.50.

Factoring in that Minter will be one of just two left-handers in Atlanta's pen when he gets healthy, the excuses to target Hader are there. And as seen in his 0.97 ERA and .128 average against, the 29-year-old is having arguably the best season of his career.

Proposed Trade: Atlanta gets LHP Josh Hader, Padres get RHP Darius Vines and 3B/SS Ignacio Alvarez

Hader is a terrific closer, but his looming free agency and hefty $14.1 million salary undercut his value somewhat. This would nonetheless be a solid upside play for the Padres. Though neither is top 100 material right now, Vines has struck out 21 of the 55 batters he's faced since returning from shoulder inflammation and Alvarez has a .409 OBP at High-A.

Why It Makes Sense

A 21-11 run since June 16 has put the Brewers in first place, but they can't sit comfortably while the Cincinnati Reds are just 0.5 games off the pace.

If there's any hope for the Brew Crew to put more distance between themselves and Cincinnati, it resides in adding to an offense that's been south of good all year. Brewers hitters rank seventh from the bottom of MLB in wins above replacement.

Since they specifically rank third from the bottom in WAR from right field, a new body for that position would be preferable. Even more preferable would be one of the right-handed-hitting variety, as getting production from that side of the plate has been a challenge.

Which brings us to Lane Thomas. Originally acquired for Jon Lester in 2021, the 27-year-old has developed into something of an under-the-radar star who's hitting .295 with 16 home runs this year. And with club control through 2025, he's no rental.

Proposed Trade: Brewers get RF Lane Thomas, Nationals get RHP Jacob Misiorowski

The Nats ought to be able to turn Thomas into at least one top 100 prospect, and Misiorowski (No. 69) is probably the best they'd be able to get out of the Brewers. Mind you, we're not knocking him. He's already been promoted twice amid a year that's seen him put up a 2.98 ERA and 79 strikeouts over 54.1 innings.

Why It Makes Sense

The Dodgers were four games behind the Arizona Diamondbacks as recently as June 18. Now they're four games up after an 18-8 stretch that's pushed them 16 games above .500.

Yet even during these good times, the Dodgers have gotten a 5.80 ERA out of their starting pitchers. Clayton Kershaw's pending return from shoulder soreness in August will help, but the Dodgers would nonetheless be fools not to pursue outside help.

And this they must know, because Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported July 13 that they have their eye on one of the market's top pitchers:

Either Snell or Stroman would arguably be a better target, but the former would be hard to extract from a division rival and the latter's value is in a tricky spot. Giolito would be a more straightforward addition, not to mention a good one. The 29-year-old has a 3.79 ERA and 131 strikeouts through 121 innings.

Proposed Trade: Dodgers get RHP Lucas Giolito, White Sox get RHP Nick Frasso

Rental though Giolito may be, he's talented enough and on a reasonable enough salary (i.e., $10.4 million) for the White Sox to demand a top 100 prospect in a trade. In Frasso, they'd get MLB's No. 63 prospect and a guy with 70 strikeouts against only 13 walks at Double-A.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.