Wet conditions in Memphis sets up ball-striking bonanza for Playoffs opener

MEMPHIS, Tenn. – A huge storm thrashed TPC Southwind on Wednesday, saturating an already soggy course ahead of the FedEx St. Jude Championship, paving the way for a scoring feast to open the FedExCup Playoffs.

Given five of the last eight winners on TOUR events at this course led the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (with the other three all inside the top six) it was already set up to be a week for the ball-strikers. But now, with the likelihood of lift, clean and place coming into play, it becomes their paradise.

Remember, TPC Southwind has water lurking on 11 of its 18 holes so it’s not rocket science to say someone who hits it long and straight will have an edge, but it’s accentuated in these circumstances. Periodic rain could affect all four days of the tournament, although Thursday and Friday are expected to escape precipitation.

With not much wind expected, the 70 best players this season might be about to feast on birdies, assuming they stay in the short grass.

“The rough has always been pretty penal here, but it seems to be a lot thicker than it has been in years past. Other than that, the golf course provides the same challenges. You've got to hit it really good out here, and when you're in position you can score, but the second you start hitting the ball offline, you're going to be penalized pretty severely for those mistakes, especially with a lot of the water holes,” world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler said.

Now the obvious targets for your outright picks are the big three in Scheffler (+650 at BetMGM Sportsbook), Jon Rahm (+900) and Rory McIlroy (+900). Not just because they have clearly been the best players this season and lead the FedExCup standings, but because they also are the top three in SG: Tee-to-Green!

With Scheffler also leading the TOUR in Bogey Avoidance and Rahm fourth in the same metric, those two in particular have some key numbers in their favor. I’m leaning to Rahm, based on value alone, amongst the top three.

The only possible concern you may want to consider is the lack of urgency needed from the big three to perform this week. With the three-week race to the FedExCup those at the top are pretty secure knowing they’ll hit East Lake for the TOUR Championship in good stead.

So, balancing good form and preserving some energy in the tank is key for them whereas others are looking to catapult their names further up the standings to get themselves amongst the top starters in Atlanta.

As such, there could be value in the outright market elsewhere.

Jason Day (+4000) becomes an intriguing prospect. He’s third in Bogey Avoidance and has turned his driving and approach game around of late, becoming way more accurate at 20th in SG: Tee-to-Green. Whereas the copious amounts of water in the past would have been a problem for the Australian, now he’s a different player. It helps that Day’s putter has been red hot of late also. The +550 for a Top 5 could be a nice slot if you don’t like the outright play.

Then there are the other ball-strikers. Behind the big three in SG: Tee-to-Green lie Collin Morikawa (+2200), Patrick Cantlay (+1600) and Tony Finau (+3000). Cantlay is fifth in Bogey Avoidance and has a habit of performing in the Playoffs. Finau was T5 here a year ago and is fifth on TOUR in birdie average.

When it comes to Top 10 plays, look to the likes of last year’s runner up Sepp Straka (+275). He’s a birdie machine, won at the John Deere Classic recently and was a runner up at the Open Championship. Look also to Matt Fitzpatrick(+225) who has already notched up three top six results from four TPC Southwind starts.

Another to watch here is Rickie Fowler(+220), who also represents a solid first round leader play. Fowler has returned to the winners circle this season and has 15 top 20s. He also has two previous top 15s at TPC Southwind so you could conservatively move him to the Top 20 market (-110). Fowler has a 64 and 65 from his last two starts in Memphis.

Speaking of the top-20 market, remember there are players at the back end of the FedExCup standings trying to extend their season to the BMW Championship next week by moving inside the top 50 in the standings.

Here are the players who need a minimum top 20 or better to have a chance to survive, giving them plenty of incentive to continue pushing towards that spot on the leaderboard.

Keith Mitchell (2-way T19), Mark Hubbard (2-way T19) Matt Kuchar (solo 19th), Stephan Jaeger (2-way T18), Cam Davis (solo 18th), Sam Ryder (2-way T16), Sam Stevens (solo 16th), Aaron Rai (solo 16th), Beau Hossler (2-way T14), Matt NeSmith (Solo 13), Vincent Norrman (2-way T12), J.J. Spaun (2-way T12), Ben Griffin (2-way T11).

Davis, at +170, is the man in decent form coming off two top 10 results.