Buying or Burying the Yankees, Giants and 9 Fringe MLB Contenders

With six weeks and change left in the 2023 regular season, it's clear enough which teams are the year's top contenders. Harder to sort, though, are the contenders on the fringes.

We've nonetheless attempted to do just that with a game of "buy or bury" for nine teams.

These clubs are ostensibly in the race, but they're either on the outside looking in at the playoff pictures in the American League and National League or just plain slumping. In deciding whether to buy or bury them, how well prepared they are for the stretch run and what their remaining schedules look like was considered.

We'll proceed in ascending order of the teams' winning percentages.

Note: All odds and SoS figures (expressed in winning percentage) are from FanGraphs.

Record: 57-63, 5.5 GB in NL Wild Card

Playoff Chances: 21.4 percent

Remaining SoS: .498

The Padres are 16 games out in the NL West race, so that ship has sailed. And even if it's not quite that far out to sea, the wild-card race has at least left the dock.

To call this a disappointing outcome for a team that came into 2023 with World Series aspirations would be putting it mildly. And rather than turning a corner, the Padres have gone face-first into the wall with losses in eight of their last 11.

Yet it's not just their light remaining schedule that bodes well. Or even their plus-61 run differential, for that matter.

In spite of Fernando Tatis Jr.'s ongoing slump, San Diego's offense has perked up with a .779 OPS and 5.0 runs per game in the second half. And as much as it hurts to lose Joe Musgrove to a shoulder injury, Michael Wacha's return to a rotation in which Yu Darvish and Blake Snell were already on fire with a combined 2.54 ERA since the break is a nice trade-off.

As doomed as they seem at first glance, it's therefore hard not to think the Padres still have a run in them. Even if it doesn't happen until they're playing 12 of their last 15 games against the A's, Rockies, Cardinals and White Sox, that could be good enough.

Verdict: Buy

Record: 58-62, 4.5 GB in AL Central

Playoff Chances: 8.5 percent

Remaining SoS: .503

It is, of course, only because of the AL Central that the Guardians can still be called a contender. Whereas they're 8.5 games out in the wild-card race, their deficit in the division is about half that.

The Guardians still have six head-to-head contests left with the Twins, against whom they're 4-3 on the year. And if nothing else, their pitching provides a tangible reason to believe they can pull off the comeback.

Cleveland starters own a 2.63 ERA in the second half, which is mainly owed to rookies Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen. Especially the first two, who boast a combined 1.97 ERA since the break.

There are potential innings limits in play for those three, however, and the cavalry won't be arriving any time soon. Neither Shane Bieber nor Triston McKenzie is expected back on the mound before mid-September.

This is to say nothing of how Cleveland's offense has gone ice-cold with a .617 OPS and 3.4 runs per game in August, which must make it that much more painful to see Josh Bell raking in Miami after a deadline-day trade. It's as if there are good reasons this club is 13-17 since the break.

Verdict: Bury

Record: 59-62, 8 GB in AL Wild Card

Playoff Chances: 0.5 percent

Remaining SoS: .498

Faced with the dilemma of trading Shohei Ohtani or using the trade market to make the most of what's left of his walk year, the Angels boldly chose the latter.

It's, uh, not working. Since newcomer starter Lucas Giolito made his Angels debut on July 28, the club is 5-13 and has added 6.5 games to what had been a mere 1.5-game deficit in the wild-card race.

As reasons for hope go, there's obviously Ohtani himself. He leads the majors with a 1.061 OPS and the American League with 41 home runs, and he's thus far been slightly hotter in the second half than he was in the first.

The Angels are also awaiting reinforcements off the injured list. Not only three-time AL MVP Mike Trout, but also erstwhile ascendant rookie catcher Logan O'Hoppe. Both could be back before the end of the month.

Yet it's not out of the question the Angels sink even further, in part because they're in a tough spot in their schedule and in part because their pitching is a mess. It has a league-worst 6.62 ERA in August, with arm fatigue having rendered Ohtani unable to help for now.

Verdict: Bury

Record: 60-60, 2.5 GB in NL Wild Card

Playoff Chances: 20.3 percent

Remaining SoS: .497

It was as recently as July 1 that the Diamondbacks held a sturdy three-game lead in the NL West. Well, they've since lost 26 out of 36 to sink to 13 games out in the division. The wild-card race is their only hope.

After averaging 5.1 beforehand, the Diamondbacks have managed only 3.7 runs per game during this stretch. Christian Walker notwithstanding, Corbin Carroll, Ketel Marte and Arizona's other key hitters have all gone cold.

The Snakes have little choice but to hope this collective slump won't last forever, which isn't a fool's hope. You'd rather have cold hitters than injured ones, and Evan Longoria is the only important Arizona batsman who fits the latter description right now.

Meanwhile, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly are still pitching well with a combined 3.26 ERA since the break and rookie Brandon Pfaadt has been better (4.34 ERA) since returning from the minors on July 22. For his part, newcomer closer Paul Sewald has one bad appearance against three good ones.

Beyond just being generally on the easy side, the D-backs' remaining schedule specifically features just three more games against a Dodgers team that's 25-8 since July 5. As such, the worst of it may already be behind them.

Verdict: Buy

Record: 60-60, 6.5 GB in AL Wild Card

Playoff Chances: 3.1 percent

Remaining SoS: .501

It was no surprise when the Yankees went 18-23 in the aftermath of Aaron Judge's fluke toe injury on June 3. When he returned on July 28, they had to hope the tide would turn.

It hasn't. Judge has done his part by posting a .901 OPS since coming back, but the Yankees have racked up 11 losses against six wins anyway.

Some good news is that Judge isn't the only Yankees hitter showing signs of life. Giancarlo Stanton, Gleyber Torres and Anthony Volpe have also perked up since the calendar flipped to August, posting a combined .880 OPS with nine home runs.

Things on the pitching side, on the other hand, are capital-B Brutal. Nestor Cortes has joined Carlos Rodón on the IL with a rotator cuff strain and is likely done for the year. Rodón's return might happen next week, but he was shaky enough even when he was healthy that there's real doubt he'll help bring down a team ERA that stands at 5.16 since the break.

It's a silver lining that the Yankees don't have any more games left against Orioles, but the 13 they have left against Toronto and Boston won't be a cakewalk. So with all respect to the late Yogi Berra, it's not too soon to declare it over for the Yankees.

Verdict: Bury

Record: 62-59, 1 GB in NL Wild Card

Playoff Chances: 20.2 percent

Remaining SoS: .502

To be sure, the Reds are right there with the Cubs in the race for the NL's third wild-card spot. But whereas the Cubs are 8-5 in August, the Reds are 3-10.

The club's pitching is in dire straits, with its starters accounting for a 6.35 ERA in August and its relievers not doing much better with a 5.94 ERA.

Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo are due back from injuries before the end of the month. They'll at least help the rotation and take some pressure off the bullpen, but it could be too little, too late for closer Alexis Díaz. He's lost velocity amid a rough patch since July 22.

On the other side of the ball, Elly De La Cruz is but one of many Reds hitters who've gone chilly since the break. And on this front, Jonathan India won't be back from plantar fasciitis until next month.

Though Cincinnati's remaining schedule isn't altogether difficult, the "easy" games include seven against the Guardians and Angels, who are also fighting for their playoff lives. It's not a good omen for a Reds team that's struggled to punch above its weight with a 35-37 record against teams with winning records.

Verdict: Bury

Record: 63-58, Hold 3rd NL Wild Card

Playoff Chances: 49.7 percent

Remaining SoS: .512

The double take you may have just done is appropriate. The Marlins do, after all, have a playoff spot in hand.

Their grip is tenuous, however. After posting a losing record in July, the Fish are on track to do the same with a 6-8 showing in August.

Yet things could look worse, including on the mound. Reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara is the only Miami starter who's been hot since the break by way of a 2.45 ERA, but at least the rotation is healthy. On paper, at least, a healthy Marlins rotation is a good one.

Though Jorge Soler and Bryan De La Cruz need to pick it up on offense, disaster has nonetheless yet to befall said offense. That's in no small way thanks to trade pickups Josh Bell and Jake Burger, who have a combined .918 OPS in Marlins threads.

The Marlins' schedule is not as bad as it seems. With three games each remaining against Atlanta and the Phillies, the hard part of their NL East slate is over. If they take care of business in the 13 contests they have left with the Mets and Nationals, they'll be alright.

Verdict: Buy

Record: 63-56, 3 GB in AL Wild Card

Playoff Chances: 17.3 percent

Remaining SoS: .517

It's been a feast-or-famine year for the Red Sox. Right now, it's the latter. Since ripping off a five-game win streak between July 22 and 28, they're just 7-9.

They've averaged 3.6 runs per game during this stretch, which can partially be traced to how Triston Casas, Masataka Yoshida and Jarren Duran have gone from hot to cold. That's also sort of true of Rafael Devers, who's hit .265 with just one home run.

Still, any offense that's otherwise averaging 4.8 runs per game deserves some confidence. And even more so in this case, as the Red Sox got a key piece back when Trevor Story returned from elbow surgery on Aug. 8. He went 4-for-4 five days later.

Also back in action are hurlers Chris Sale and Garrett Whitlock, with Tanner Houck still to follow. It's a good time for the Red Sox's pitching staff to become as deep as it's been all year.

Boston's remaining schedule looks like a hurdle, especially where seven games each against the Orioles and Astros are concerned. But since the Red Sox play winning teams well to the tune of a 38-33 record, their schedule isn't a deal-breaker.

Verdict: Buy

Record: 64-56, Hold 2nd NL Wild Card

Playoff Chances: 71.1 percent

Remaining SoS: .509

Yet another double take? Yeah, that's fair. With the NL's second wild-card spot in hand, the Giants are in strong position to make the playoffs.

Like the Marlins, though, the Giants had a losing record in July and are on that same track with a 6-7 showing in August. Overall, they've lost 15 of their last 25.

Looking for something to blame? Look no further than an offense that's put up a .605 OPS and 3.1 runs per game in this span. Wilmer Flores has been hot with a .978 OPS, but he's on an island by himself. Joc Pederson, Michael Conforto and everyone else are cold.

To this end, it's not the best news that Mike Yastrzemski and Mitch Haniger are both weeks away from coming off the IL. And with Anthony DeSclafani likely done for the year, the Giants are down to it with healthy starters. It's Logan Webb, Alex Cobb, Ross Stripling and who knows?

Yet another "yikes" are the 13 games the Giants have left against the Dodgers and Atlanta. They are indeed 4-2 against the latter, but all six of those tilts happened before the Dodgers morphed into a wrecking ball in early July. So in all, the vibes here aren't great.

Verdict: Bury

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.