Ranking How Every NFL Offense Will Fare in 2023

In the NFL, offense is king. Last season, eight of the teams that fielded top-10 offenses made the playoffs—and that’s not surprising. It’s been a trend for at least the last five years, as modern NFL rules favor offenses, and offensive efficiency generally leads to winning and sustained success.

So which offenses are primed to make the leap in 2023 into the top 10, and which units could take a step back? Let’s rank them from one to 32, based on my preseason projections.

Statistics from this article are from TruMedia or Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.

1. Kansas City Chiefs

Surprised? I didn’t think so. The Chiefs had the best offense last season, and it wasn’t close. They ranked first in expected points added per drive, and the difference between them and the second-ranked Eagles was the same as the difference between the Eagles and the 16th-ranked Packers.

If this were another team, I’d ramble on here about how the Chiefs are starting two new offensive tackles and lost their top wide receiver, JuJu Smith-Schuster, from a year ago. And to be fair, those are reasonable concerns. But haven’t Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid earned the benefit of the doubt by now? Remember, this was an organization that made the bold move of trading wide receiver Tyreek Hill the previous offseason, and the offense actually got better without him.

It’s not ideal for veteran offensive tackle Donovan Smith to protect Mahomes’s blind side, and the wide receiver talent is definitely below average. But the Chiefs have never finished worse than third in offensive DVOA since Mahomes became the starter in 2018. I just trust that they’ll figure it out.

2. Philadelphia Eagles

Nearly everything went right for this group last season. They had all 11 starters healthy for the Super Bowl, which is pretty much unheard of. They scored touchdowns on 67.8 percent of their red zone trips, which was the third-highest rate in the NFL and the best rate for the franchise going back to at least 2000. Jalen Hurts produced a success rate of 67.4 percent on his designed runs. Not only did that rank first among all players in 2022, but it was the highest success rate for any player with at least 75 carries in a season going back to at least 2000 (a pool of 1,279 player seasons!).

That’s all to say that some regression for this group is likely. I just don’t think it will be a drastic drop. Hurts, wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and tight end Dallas Goedert are either in their primes or ascending players. The offensive line is one of the best in the NFL. And given how much Hurts has already improved, it’d be silly to put a cap on his ceiling. He’s 25 years old, and last season, he ranked sixth in Next Gen Stats’ completion percentage over expectation metric, which assesses accuracy based on the difficulty of each throw. He also had the fifth-lowest interception rate (1.3 percent) among starters.

The beauty of the Eagles offense is that it’s not that complicated, yet it almost always has answers. Want to play two-high coverages? They’ll gash you in the run game. Want to be more aggressive? Brown, Smith, and Goedert can win one-on-one.

Add it all up, and I see a top-five offense once again, even if it might not come as easily as it did last year.

3. Cincinnati Bengals

What we learned about the Bengals last year is that they always seemed to have a plan B. Out of necessity, as defenses focused on taking away the Bengals’ big downfield plays, Cincinnati swapped explosiveness for efficiency. The Bengals were the most pass-heavy team on early downs. They also ranked fourth in rushing efficiency. Leaning on Joe Burrow’s accuracy and the ground game, they showed they were capable of burning teams while being more methodical—even though they still had those big downfield plays in their arsenal.

This year, the Bengals upgraded their offensive line, signing former Chiefs left tackle Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency. And they still have the best trio of receivers in the league—Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd—and scheme continuity with head coach Zac Taylor.

This top-three ranking operates under the assumption that the calf injury Burrow suffered early in training camp won’t be a major issue in the regular season. By the time Week 1 rolls around, he will have had a full six weeks to recover. Bottom line: This group is talented, it can win in different ways, and other than Mahomes, no quarterback is more trustworthy than Burrow.

4. Buffalo Bills

The 2022 Bills were a great case study in the eye test vs. the numbers. There is often an ease with which great NFL offenses operate, but with last year’s Bills, that didn’t exist. Everything looked like it was hard. Then you looked at the numbers, and by the end of the season, only the Chiefs were better. The Bills were second in offensive DVOA, EPA per drive, and success rate.

The takeaway? It might not always look pretty, but as long as Josh Allen is at quarterback, the Bills offense will be good. There have been three times in NFL history when a quarterback threw for at least 4,000 yards and rushed for at least 700 yards. Cam Newton did it during his amazing rookie season in 2011, and Allen accounts for the other two, accomplishing it in back-to-back seasons in 2021 and 2022.

Of course, there’s a high level of variance to Allen’s game. Pro Football Focus tracks turnover-worthy plays to account for bad decisions. It’s a subjective measure, but Allen was tied for the fifth-highest percentage of those plays among starters. At the same time, Allen can make the “wow” plays that few quarterbacks are capable of.

The Bills’ big offensive move in the offseason was spending a first-round pick on tight end Dalton Kincaid. Maybe Kincaid will play well right away, but that would make him the exception for rookie tight ends. Since 2000, 25 tight ends have been selected in the first round. Their average production as rookies: 32 catches for 374 yards and two touchdowns.

The best-case scenario for the Bills is that they’ll have more flexibility within the offense this season and can solve more problems. But it’s also possible they’ll regret not pouring more resources into what looks like a mediocre-at-best offensive line.

In the end, there will likely be ups and downs, but Allen elevates the players around him and can make up for shortcomings elsewhere on the roster. The Bills have produced a top-10 offense in each of the past three seasons, and as long as Allen is healthy, that’s their most likely outcome in 2023.

5. Jacksonville Jaguars

Competent coaching matters. Who knew? The Jaguars went from Urban Meyer to Doug Pederson in 2022, and the result was a division title and a playoff win. Looking ahead to this season, there’s plenty of reason to believe that the arrow is pointing up, especially on offense.

Trevor Lawrence ranked sixth in EPA per pass play and 10th in success rate last season, and he was the best quarterback in the NFL against man coverage. That speaks to Lawrence’s willingness to give pass catchers opportunities and Pederson’s ability to scheme things up. Just 10.8 percent of Lawrence’s throws last year were into tight windows—the fourth-lowest mark among starters.

Fast-forward to this season, and the Jaguars have added wide receiver Calvin Ridley to a pass-catching group that includes wide receivers Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, along with tight end Evan Engram. I have some concerns about the offensive line, given that left tackle Cam Robinson is suspended for the first four games, but this was a pretty good group last year, and Lawrence has done an excellent job of avoiding sacks (his 4.4 percent sack rate was fourth best last season).

There’s a lot to like here: an established play caller, a young quarterback on the rise, good pass catchers, and a competent offensive line. I think the Jaguars offense will make another leap this season.

6. Los Angeles Chargers

It feels like they’ll be out of excuses if the offense doesn’t perform well in 2023. The Chargers had one of the NFL’s most disappointing offenses last year, finishing 19th in DVOA, and this offseason, head coach Brandon Staley replaced coordinator Joe Lombardi with Kellen Moore in an effort to unlock Justin Herbert.

Moore will be tasked with creating more downfield opportunities in the passing game. Herbert’s average pass last year went 6.7 yards—tied for the third-lowest distance among starters—and he attempted 175 passes at or behind the line of scrimmage, which was the second most. If those numbers are similar again this season, it’ll be fair to wonder whether the issue is the play caller or the quarterback.

From a personnel standpoint, the Chargers are mostly running it back, and they should get a boost from the return of left tackle Rashawn Slater after he was limited to three games due to an injury last season. With Slater back, the Chargers will go into the season with what looks like a top-10 offensive line. Herbert has plenty to work with: Rookie first-round pick Quentin Johnston joins a group that includes wide receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, along with versatile running back Austin Ekeler.

Moore spent four seasons as the offensive coordinator of the Cowboys. If we isolate the plays where Dak Prescott was on the field, Dallas performed like the second-best offense in the NFL in terms of EPA per play during that span, so Moore has directed efficient offenses before. And Herbert has quarterbacked efficient offenses—the Chargers were fourth in offensive DVOA in 2021. Herbert has a capable coordinator, offensive line, and supporting cast. The pieces are in place for the Chargers to rebound.

7. Dallas Cowboys

In a divisional-round loss to the 49ers last season, the Cowboys offense managed just one touchdown on 10 possessions. Head coach Mike McCarthy seemingly decided that coaching was at least partially to blame for that offensive failure, so he moved on from offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and replaced him with Brian Schottenheimer. But make no mistake: In 2023, this will be McCarthy’s offense. Schottenheimer is just his right-hand man.

When Prescott was on the field last year, the Cowboys had one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses. Did they struggle in big playoff losses? No doubt. But overall, this has been a really good unit. It’s fair to wonder whether the Cowboys would have been better off making some tweaks to the scheme, play-calling, or personnel rather than making such a big coaching change.

The Prescott discourse can get exhausting, but it really shouldn’t be that complicated. He’s been a very good quarterback, and over the past three seasons, Prescott ranks third in success rate, behind only Mahomes and Allen. But he’s been Dallas’s quarterback for seven seasons, and the Cowboys have never gotten past the divisional round. That isn’t all on Prescott, of course, but he definitely has to take some of the blame.

The Cowboys go into the season with what should be a top-10 offensive line. Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb is a legit no. 1, and adding veteran Brandin Cooks was a smart under-the-radar move. Michael Gallup was returning from an injury last season and should play better now that he’s healthier in 2023.

So where does that leave Dallas? I have a hard time believing that going from Moore to McCarthy/Schottenheimer will result in an upgrade in offensive production. But Prescott and his supporting cast are too good for this offense to suffer a major drop-off.

8. San Francisco 49ers

Kyle Shanahan saw enough in eight starts last year to hand the keys to Brock Purdy this season. In those games, Purdy looked like someone who could operate an efficient offense. Among 36 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks last season, Purdy ranked third in success rate and tied for second in EPA per pass play.

The 49ers have a diverse and talented group of playmakers, from running back Christian McCaffrey to wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk to tight end George Kittle. They have some questions on their offensive line, and their best player up front, Trent Williams, is 35 years old. But Shanahan’s been able to coach around pass-protection and run-blocking issues in the past.

So, what are the concerns? One, Purdy is coming off of a significant elbow injury and doesn’t have a large body of work in the NFL. There’s a chance he won’t look like the same player we saw last season. Two, while the schedule is far from daunting, it might not be quite as soft as the one from last season, when the 49ers faced the easiest schedule of opposing defenses.

The 49ers have finished seventh or better in offensive DVOA in three of the past four seasons. I would like to see more from Purdy before anointing him as the long-term answer, but we know Shanahan will put his quarterback in a position to succeed.

9. Seattle Seahawks

They were a great story last season, but after starting off hot, the Seahawks had some inconsistencies and came back down to earth, finishing 14th in offensive DVOA. Geno Smith turns 33 in October, and last year was the only time in his career we’ve seen him be a quality starter. A healthy dose of skepticism is reasonable.

That said, I think they’ll be good this year. The case starts with Smith’s supporting cast. Offensive line guru Brandon Thorn projects that the Seahawks will have a top-10 unit up front. Don’t forget that this team started two rookie tackles, Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas, last season, so theoretically, those players should improve. Meanwhile, the wide receiver trio of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is one of the NFL’s best, although Smith-Njigba could take some time to get going, given his preseason wrist injury. But the point is that Smith should be protected well, and he should have three guys who can win their one-on-one matchups every week. How many other quarterbacks are that well positioned to succeed? Smith passed the eye test last year. He processed quickly, was accurate, and threw a beautiful deep ball. Given the pieces around him, I like Smith’s chances to have another strong season, and I like this offense.

And in some ways, the Seahawks offense actually had bad luck last season. It was 27th in EPA on turnovers. If that improves more toward league average, it’ll give the offense a nice boost.

10. Detroit Lions

They were the surprise offense in the NFL last season, finishing fifth in DVOA. Jared Goff has been a full-time starter for six NFL seasons. Here’s where the offenses with Goff have ranked in DVOA.

Do those results surprise you? Be honest! They surprised me. Goff has quarterbacked a top-10 offense four times in six seasons. Of course, part of that has to do with coaching and scheme and supporting cast. No one is saying that Goff is Mahomes. But when the pieces around him are in place, Goff has a pretty good track record.

So let’s look at those pieces in Detroit. The Lions’ biggest move this offseason was retaining offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who showed last year that he could do more with less. The other thing the Lions have going for them is their offensive line. Only three teams dealt with more offensive line injuries than the Lions did last season. The group up front is healthy now, and it should be one of the best units in the league.

The pass-catching group, though, looks a bit shaky. Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown was terrific last year and is positioned for a monster season. But 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams was suspended for the first six games for violating the league’s gambling policy, so the Lions will be counting on veterans like Kalif Raymond, Josh Reynolds, and Marvin Jones Jr. to start the season.

It would be huge if Detroit’s rookies are able to contribute right away. The Lions used the no. 12 pick on running back Jahmyr Gibbs and the 34th pick on tight end Sam LaPorta. As I mentioned above in the Bills section, rookie tight ends generally aren’t that impactful. Since 2000, tight ends taken in the first or second rounds have averaged 324 receiving yards in their first season. It’s a similar story with running backs. Fifty have been taken in the first round since 2000, and the average receiving production for those players as rookies is just 221 yards. Only three of them—Reggie Bush, Saquon Barkley, and Christian McCaffrey—eclipsed 500 receiving yards as rookies.

In terms of regression, there are two areas to keep an eye on. One is turnovers. The Lions turned the ball over on just 8 percent of their possessions last year—the second-lowest mark in the NFL and the lowest mark for the franchise since at least 2000. Pro Football Focus credited Goff with a turnover-worthy play rate of 3.6 percent, which ranked 23rd out of 35 starters. In other words, the Lions had some luck on their side with turnovers last season. Their red zone efficiency could also regress. They converted 66.2 percent of their red zone trips into touchdowns, the fourth-best percentage in the NFL last season and the second-best mark for the franchise since at least 2000.

Add it all up, and the Lions are a tough offense to project. I like the coordinator and the offensive line, and I believe Goff can do what he needs to with the right pieces around him. But I’m not sold on the pass-catching options and think the offense will likely regress in the areas listed above. I see a very good offense that could take a slight step back.

11. Miami Dolphins

The case that the Dolphins will deliver an elite offense is last year’s film from when quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was healthy. If we isolate just the plays with Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ performance (based on EPA per play) equated to the second-best offense in the NFL, behind only the Chiefs. If the Dolphins play like that over the course of a full season, they’ll be legit Super Bowl contenders.

So why don’t I have them higher? There is a fragility with this group that worries me. Tagovailoa suffered at least two concussions last year and admitted that he considered retirement this offseason. There’s also compelling evidence that Tagovailoa had some luck on his side last season. Pro Football Focus charted him tied for the third-highest percentage of turnover-worthy plays among starting quarterbacks. Then there’s the offensive line. It was a below-average unit to begin with, and the group’s best player, left tackle Terron Armstead, who has missed 13 games over the past two seasons, suffered a leg injury during training camp. Mike McDaniel coached around the line weaknesses last year, but that doesn’t mean he can do it again.

From a pass-catching standpoint, Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are among the top duos in the NFL, and they accounted for over 64 percent of the Dolphins’ pass-catching production last season. Neither player missed a game last season, but I do wonder about the depth here, given how reliant the offense is on Hill’s and Waddle’s speed. And last, does McDaniel have a plan B? The offense was not as good in December as it was early in the season, and now teams have had an entire offseason to study what Miami likes to do.

There are counters to all these points. Tagovailoa and Armstead both missed time last year, and the Dolphins still made the playoffs. The team signed Mike White, so it has a backup quarterback with experience. And what McDaniel did in his first year as a head coach was impressive. It could all work out for Miami, and the Dolphins could significantly outperform this ranking. I just have more questions about them than I do about the teams listed above.

12. Baltimore Ravens

Perhaps no offense in the NFL is set to experience a more significant makeover from a scheme perspective than the Ravens after they replaced offensive coordinator Greg Roman with Todd Monken in hopes of injecting life into an inconsistent passing game.

Historically, when Lamar Jackson has been on the field, the Ravens have generally found ways to be productive. Over the past three seasons, when you look at EPA per play, they’ve performed like the sixth-best offense in the NFL with Jackson and the 31st-ranked offense without him. His durability, though, has been an issue. Jackson has missed 10 regular-season games over the past two seasons.

Jackson’s availability isn’t the only concern. The Ravens signed Odell Beckham Jr. in the offseason, but he will turn 31 in November and didn’t play last season as he recovered from the ACL tear he suffered in the Super Bowl in February 2022. Wide receiver Rashod Bateman has appeared in just 18 games over his first two seasons, and Zay Flowers, the Ravens’ first-round pick, has never played a snap in the NFL. On paper, this could be the best wide receiver group that Jackson has ever played with, but it’s far from a sure thing.

Jackson’s legs set a relatively high floor for the Ravens offense. He could go down as the most dynamic running quarterback in NFL history and is still only 26 years old. The offensive line should be good, and we know that Mark Andrews will be one of the NFL’s most productive tight ends. I see a high ceiling with this unit, but they’re experiencing a lot of change for one offseason, and I’m not sure it’ll be a smooth transition. Throw in the durability concerns with Jackson, and I can’t quite put them in the same class as the top-tier offenses.

13. New York Jets

I have flip-flopped roughly 4,000 times on whether I think the Jets offense will be good this year. I keep coming back to the 2022 Packers. During a season in which Aaron Rodgers fought through an injury and did not play well, they still finished 11th in DVOA. The last time the Jets offense finished 11th or better in DVOA? 2004!

My point is that Rodgers doesn’t need to be an MVP candidate for the Jets to be decent. He simply needs to quarterback an above-average offense, and that will likely be good enough to get this team to the playoffs. He has enough to work with at wide receiver with Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Mecole Hardman, although this group got thinner with Corey Davis’s surprise retirement. The big question is the offensive line, and specifically offensive tackle. The Jets have taken a bunch of dart throws there with players like Duane Brown, who will turn 38 before the start of the regular season; Max Mitchell; Billy Turner; and Mekhi Becton. Whether they can find two guys who will be competent and durable will go a long way in determining the outcome of their season.

One thing working in the Jets’ favor: They’re unlikely to get as unlucky with injuries as they were last year. The Jets offense had the fourth-worst injury luck in the NFL, and it was especially bad on the offensive line. Only three teams in Football Outsiders’ database, which goes back to 2001, had more injuries on the offensive line than the 2022 Jets did. Performance aside, just getting their starters on the field more has to lead to improvement.

Rodgers is clearly in the final stage of his career, but I don’t think he’s completely cooked, and he has pieces around him to help him quarterback the Jets into the top half of the NFL.

14. Cleveland Browns

There might not be a more difficult offense in the NFL to project. On one hand, I think Kevin Stefanski is an excellent offensive coach. His units have finished eighth, 14th, and ninth in offensive DVOA over the past three seasons, and that was without a great quarterback in any of those years. Deshaun Watson is the most talented quarterback Stefanski has coached, and if Watson gets back to being the player we saw in Houston, this could be a top-five offense. Nick Chubb is a difference-making running back.

But there are plenty of concerns. Last year, among 41 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, Watson ranked 30th in success rate and 40th in EPA per pass play. That was in six starts after he returned from suspension in Week 12, so it’s not a huge sample, but it’s also not nothing. We have a larger body of work from his time in Houston to suggest that Watson is a really good quarterback, but the last time he showed that was 2020—a long time ago.

The biggest football concern with Watson is how many sacks he takes. In Houston, the offensive line always got blamed. But last year, playing behind a good offensive line in Cleveland, Watson was sacked on 10.5 percent of his dropbacks. That ranked 40th out of 41 quarterbacks—ahead of only Chicago’s Justin Fields. As a point of comparison, Jacoby Brissett, playing in the same Cleveland offense, was sacked on just 6.1 percent of his dropbacks. It’s reasonable to wonder how comfortable Watson will be in Stefanski’s offense and how willing Stefanski will be to adjust to what Watson wants to do.

The Browns don’t have great depth on offense. If WR1 Amari Cooper or Chubb goes down, the supporting cast of skill-position players will look pedestrian. And there’s no downplaying the pressure this group is under. If Watson doesn’t play well, or if the offense stalls, or if the team doesn’t win games, changes will be made and the finger-pointing will begin.

I see the upside with this group, but I don’t trust them.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers

The case that the Steelers offense will be slightly better than last year (when it ranked 18th in DVOA) is straightforward: It has a quarterback, Kenny Pickett, who’s going from Year 1 to Year 2. Generally speaking, that should mean improvement.

In the past 10 years, there have been 35 quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks during their rookie seasons. Among that sample, Pickett’s 2022 season ranked 16th in EPA per pass play and 19th in success rate. He pretty much delivered what the numbers would define as an average season for a rookie quarterback. And that’s not a bad thing! Setting the floor is meaningful. Pickett’s EPA per pass play was higher than that posted by guys like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, and Trevor Lawrence during their rookie seasons.

The Steelers have talented pass catchers in wide receivers Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, along with tight end Pat Freiermuth. They signed guard Isaac Seumalo in free agency and used a first-round pick on tackle Broderick Jones. It’s not a great offensive line, but it has a chance to be competent.

So why not go all in on the possibility that the Steelers offense will make a big leap? One, its depth will almost certainly be tested more than it was in 2022. The Steelers had the healthiest offense in the NFL last season, according to Football Outsiders’ adjusted games lost metric. And two, I have seen little reason to believe that offensive coordinator Matt Canada can be a difference maker. The Steelers offense has looked disorganized at times, and in two seasons under Canada, it’s finished 25th and 18th in DVOA.

If I trusted the coordinator more, I’d be tempted to bump the Steelers up from this spot. I liked what I saw from Pickett last year and think this offense has a chance. But until Canada shows me where he’s giving the Steelers an edge, I can’t go any higher.

16. Minnesota Vikings

Kirk Cousins has been the Vikings’ starter for five seasons. Here’s how the offenses have performed with him:

A couple of things stand out here. One, last year’s offensive performance was the worst the Vikings have had from an efficiency standpoint in Cousins’s Minnesota tenure. And two, we pretty much know that we’ll get a high-floor, low-ceiling passing game with Cousins. The Vikings have finished between 11th and 17th in passing DVOA every season with him.

Cousins will have plenty to work with. Justin Jefferson is the best wide receiver in football. The Vikings used the no. 23 pick on receiver Jordan Addison, K.J. Osborn is a fine complementary piece, and tight end T.J. Hockenson played well for the Vikings last season after an in-season trade.

Up front, the Vikings are very good at tackle but have questions to answer about the interior of the line. They’re banking on Alexander Mattison’s ability to carry the rushing load for a running game that ranked 28th in rushing DVOA last season.

Outlier seasons happen, but based on what we’ve seen with the Vikings under Cousins, this is the range where they’re most likely to land.

17. Denver Broncos

I change my opinion on the Broncos offense every two hours. Is it reasonable to think that Sean Payton can resurrect Russell Wilson’s career? Sure. Is it also reasonable to think that Payton will want to start Jarrett Stidham by Week 6? Of course!

I have landed on the more optimistic side. In his 15 seasons with the Saints, Payton’s offenses finished in the top 10 in DVOA 12 times, and they were 11th twice. Only once (in his final season, with Jameis Winston, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian, and Ian Book at QB) were they below average. So we’re talking about one of the best offensive coaches of the past 25 years.

But we know Drew Brees isn’t walking through that door in Denver. Wilson will turn 35 in November and was one of the worst starters in the NFL last season. He ranked 31st in success rate, ahead of only Zach Wilson and Baker Mayfield. Payton’s offseason moves suggest he wants to limit what’s asked of Wilson. So do the Broncos have a good enough supporting cast? Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton are starting-caliber wide receivers with upside, but Jeudy is expected to miss some time with a hamstring injury. The Broncos were already thin at that position after Tim Patrick tore his Achilles tendon in training camp. Tight end Greg Dulcich showed promise as a rookie. Javonte Williams (returning from an ACL injury) is a good back when healthy, and the Broncos also signed Samaje Perine for running back depth. The Broncos aggressively addressed the offensive line in free agency by signing guard Ben Powers and tackle Mike McGlinchey. The group up front should at least be competent.

Add in the fact that only the Rams were more affected by injuries on offense than the Broncos last year, and it seems likely that the talent here is at least a little better than we remember coming off of last season’s disaster.

In the end, I think I’m probably a little higher on this group than the consensus is. Payton’s track record is too good, and while Wilson is clearly a declining player, he can be much better than he was last season.

18. New Orleans Saints

Derek Carr was a full-time starter with the Raiders for nine seasons. Let’s take away his rookie season since most rookie quarterbacks struggle. If we look at Carr’s last eight seasons, the Raiders’ average offensive DVOA was 15th. Their best finish was seventh, and their worst was 25th. Don’t those numbers perfectly align with what you thought about Carr’s tenure there? The most likely outcome with Carr is mediocrity, but if the supporting cast is really strong, it could be better than that. If it’s weak, it could be worse. He won’t elevate the offense, but he won’t sink it either.

What does that mean for his first season in New Orleans? Carr’s offensive line should be solid, although there are some questions on the left side. Wide receiver Chris Olave had a terrific rookie season and figures to be Carr’s top target. The Saints are trying again with wide receiver Michael Thomas, even though he’s played in three games the past two seasons; tight end Juwan Johnson will try to build on a solid 2022 season; and no. 1 running back Alvin Kamara will return in Week 4 after serving a three-game suspension. The Saints still have Taysom Hill, and they signed running back Jamaal Williams in free agency.

Add it all up, and I see this unit as a competent group, but not one that will elevate Carr. Once again, mediocrity feels like the most likely outcome.

19. New York Giants

Brian Daboll got plenty out of a subpar offensive roster last season, but is the Giants’ 2022 formula sustainable? Their superpower was not turning the ball over. The Giants committed a turnover on just 7.3 percent of their possessions. That was the lowest percentage in the NFL and tied for their lowest percentage as a franchise since at least 2000. Avoiding turnovers is part skill and part luck, and the most likely scenario here is that the Giants’ turnover rate will move more toward league average in 2023. Do they have enough answers to compensate for that?

The Giants had no explosive element in their offense last year. Their 43 plays of 20-plus yards ranked last in that category, and their 28 completions of 20-plus yards were not only the fewest of any team last season, but the fewest of any offense in the past 10 years! The Giants traded for tight end Darren Waller, but he will turn 31 in September and has played in a total of 20 games the past two seasons. They drafted speedy wide receiver Jalin Hyatt in the third round, but over the past 10 years average rookie production for third-round picks has been just 23 catches for 308 yards.

Maybe those moves will pay off. But if not, the Giants will have to lean on their formula from a year ago. That means relying on Saquon Barkley and quarterback Daniel Jones in the run game and not making mistakes in the passing game. Throw in the fact that the offensive line looks mediocre, and to me this looks like a group that could take a step back.

20. Green Bay Packers

Let’s start with the glass-half-full take. The passing game wasn’t very good last year with a future Hall of Fame QB, and the offense still finished 11th in DVOA. That’s because the run game (fifth in DVOA) was one of the best in the NFL. Now, RB1 Aaron Jones is still there. RB2 AJ Dillon is still there. Head coach Matt LaFleur is still there. And the Packers are bringing back the same offensive line, which should be a top-10 unit if it gets improved injury luck. In other words, the old blueprint of “lean on the run game and offensive line to help the inexperienced quarterback” should apply here.

OK, fine. Let’s talk about the quarterback. Jordan Love is a rarity in the modern NFL. He was a first-round pick but won’t become the full-time starter until Year 3. Love started one game and attempted a total of 83 passes in his first two NFL seasons. But he’s been practicing under the same offensive coach (LaFleur) since he first got to the NFL. Those reps and continuity have to count for something. What gives me pause is that the Packers were reluctant to exercise Love’s fifth-year option, and the two sides instead came to terms on a team-friendly extension. It makes me wonder: Did the Packers move on from Aaron Rodgers because they were sick of Aaron Rodgers? Or because they actually believed in Love? There’s no way to say for sure, but it feels more like the former.

That said, I’d be higher on the Packers if they had better pass-catching talent. Wide receiver Christian Watson was electric once he got a chance last year, but beyond him, there are just so many unknowns. Maybe one of the other young players on this roster will pop, but that’s far from a given.

In the end, I think I’m more bullish on this group than consensus is. The Packers will be able to run the ball and protect Love. That should at least give him a chance.

21. Atlanta Falcons

The Football Hipster Society (FHS) is all in on the Falcons. The optimism is rooted in the idea that the Falcons finished 13th in DVOA last year with a struggling Marcus Mariota. Replace him with second-year quarterback Desmond Ridder and add first-round pick Bijan Robinson at running back, and they’re guaranteed to improve, right? Not so fast. I think the hipsters are way too confident that Ridder is an upgrade.

The truth is that teams rarely find quality starting quarterbacks where the Falcons drafted Ridder (third round, 74th overall). And I think it’s fair to wonder how much the team truly believes in him. During the 2022 draft, they took off-ball linebacker Troy Andersen 16 spots ahead of him. Last year, even though Mariota killed the Falcons with his mistakes and poor play, head coach Arthur Smith didn’t go to Ridder until Week 15. Then this offseason, the Falcons signed Taylor Heinicke to a healthy two-year, $14 million deal to be QB2. All of this combined makes it seem like the Falcons are saying, “Let’s see what he’s got” more than “He’s our guy moving forward.”

We can all agree that Mariota was bad last year, but he posted a dropback success rate of 45.6 percent, which ranked 18th. How realistic is it to expect Ridder to be significantly better? Among quarterbacks taken in the third round or later over the last 10 years, do you know how many have had a season with at least 10 starts and a success rate as high as Mariota’s last season? Two! Dak Prescott and Jacoby Brissett.

There’s a scenario in which the hipsters win here and the Falcons prove me wrong. Smith has a track record of doing more with less as a play caller. The offensive line should be solid. Robinson could very well lead the NFL in rushing. Wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts are nice pass-catching options. If Ridder looks like 75 percent of his common draft comp Ryan Tannehill, who played his best ball under Smith in Tennessee, this offense can take another step forward. I just think the chances of that happening are lower than many (I’m looking at you, Ben Solak) seem to believe.

22. New England Patriots

Bill Belichick could have scoured the earth far and wide to find a bright offensive mind who could replace Matt Patricia and be a real difference maker. Instead, he settled on his old buddy Bill O’Brien. Can O’Brien take the Patriots from embarrassing to competent? Sure. But is he likely to do more than that? Nope. O’Brien spent six full seasons directing the Houston Texans offense from 2014 to 2019. Deshaun Watson started 37 games during that stretch, yet O’Brien’s offenses never finished higher than 17th in DVOA.

The Patriots have a mediocre offensive line with questions at both tackle spots. The pass-catching group—led by wide receivers JuJu Smith-Schuster and DeVante Parker, along with tight end Hunter Henry—is average at best. Rhamondre Stevenson is a very good running back, but the Patriots were 21st in rushing DVOA last season. Ezekiel Elliott is a fine complementary back, but he’s far from a difference maker at this stage of his career.

We saw in 2021 that quarterback Mac Jones can direct an efficient offense, as the Patriots were ninth in offensive DVOA that season. But now O’Brien has to show he can elevate an average quarterback and midtier offensive roster through his scheme, and I’m not sure he’s capable of that.

23. Las Vegas Raiders

Josh McDaniels has now had four seasons in which he’s directed an offense without Tom Brady as his QB and Bill Belichick as his boss. Those units have ranked 18th, 17th, 32nd, and 17th in DVOA. This offseason in Las Vegas, McDaniels swapped Derek Carr for Jimmy Garoppolo. The Raiders traded away tight end Darren Waller and signed wide receiver Jakobi Meyers. Josh Jacobs is back after signing a new one-year deal with the Raiders to end his preseason-long holdout, but he’s coming off of a 393-touch season (the heaviest workload for any running back last year).

There are a few reasons I think this whole thing is unlikely to work out for McDaniels. One, Garoppolo has a troubling injury history. He’s 31 years old and has started more than 10 games in a season just twice in his career. Two, this offensive line isn’t very good. Thorn has it ranked 27th overall. And three, McDaniels is no Shanahan. Next Gen Stats tracks a metric called expected completion percentage, using tracking data—pass distance, wide receiver separation, pressure from the pass rush, and other factors—to determine what a quarterback’s completion percentage should be based on the throws he’s attempting. Garoppolo’s expected completion percentage last year was 69.8 percent. That ranked first among starters. In other words, no quarterback was attempting easier throws than Garoppolo. Carr, while playing in McDaniels’s offense, ranked 34th, at 61.6 percent. QB life is about to get a whole lot harder for Garoppolo.

On paper, Davante Adams, Meyers, and Hunter Renfrow form a nice receiving trio. But think of all the things that need to go right for this offense to be better than mediocre. Garoppolo needs to stay healthy. The offensive line needs to overachieve. Jacobs needs to return. And McDaniels has to scheme it up better than he did last year. I’m just not seeing it.

24. Carolina Panthers

This is one team where closely paying attention to the preseason got to me. I initially had the Panthers ranked higher, but the combination of a rookie quarterback, below-average pass-catching talent, and potentially shaky offensive line has scared me off.

Frank Reich had four full seasons as the Colts head coach. Here’s a look at how his offenses performed.

That’s one very good offense, two pretty good offenses, and one slightly below-average offense. Look at the last three quarterbacks. Brissett is now a backup. Rivers is retired. And Wentz is jobless. The point? I believe in Reich as an offensive coach who can set a high floor and get solid play out of average quarterbacks. So while I have questions about the 2023 Panthers and rookie Bryce Young, it wouldn’t surprise me if they outperformed this ranking.

Rookie quarterbacks generally have a tough time, and the size concerns with Young are valid. But he has a lot of traits that make me think he could be an exception. With his smarts, processing, and accuracy and the level of competition he faced in college, Young just doesn’t strike me as someone who’ll be overwhelmed by this.

The supporting cast, though, is what gives me pause. On paper, the offensive line should be competent, but reports out of Carolina suggest it’s been a rough summer for that group. The lack of talent at wide receiver is concerning (OK, fine, alarming). The Panthers are rolling with some combination of Adam Thielen, DJ Chark, Terrace Marshall Jr., Jonathan Mingo, and Laviska Shenault Jr. It’s one of the NFL’s worst groups, and ultimately the reason it’s hard to picture a high ceiling for the Panthers offense.

25. Chicago Bears

I have two questions for the Bears offense this season:

1. Did they make the right move in sticking with Justin Fields over taking one of the top QB prospects in the draft?
2. Did they do enough around Fields to get a good answer to question no. 1?

DJ Moore is a legit WR1. His 4,413 receiving yards over the past four seasons rank seventh among all wide receivers. And he put up those numbers on the Panthers despite getting consistently bad quarterback play. Beyond Moore, though, there are question marks. Darnell Mooney coming off a season-ending ankle injury? Chase Claypool coming off a season in which he was a nonfactor? Cole Kmet being counted on to make a big leap? Maybe they’ll be good enough. But aside from Moore, the Bears don’t have a sure thing.

Up front, the team signed guard Nate Davis and used the 10th pick on tackle Darnell Wright. But projected starting guard Teven Jenkins is expected to miss time with a leg injury. Should the offensive line be improved from last year? Yes. Will it be good? Unlikely.

And then there’s Fields. If we look at the Bears offense just in the 15 games when he was healthy and on the field and extrapolate that performance over the course of an entire season, they would’ve ranked 20th in EPA per play last season—not bad. But it’s fair to wonder whether Fields’s style of play is sustainable. He had the highest EPA on scrambles of any quarterback in a season going back to at least 2000. That’s probably not something you can count on year to year.

Meanwhile, Fields ranked 33rd out of 33 qualifying starters in sack rate, was 32nd in INT rate, and had a league-high 16 fumbles. I’m convinced that Fields can make the spectacular plays. I’m unconvinced that he can cut down on the negative plays. This group has a high ceiling if Fields makes a significant leap. I just don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.

26. Los Angeles Rams

There’s a chance that this ranking will end up looking foolish. Maybe Sean McVay will deliver a coaching performance that makes everyone remember why we called him a genius, Matthew Stafford will stay healthy, and Cooper Kupp will lead the NFL in receiving yards. Last year, the Rams had the most injured offensive line since Football Outsiders started tracking that data in 2001. They can’t possibly be any worse this season, right?

Sorry, I just can’t get there. We still have a 35-year-old, immobile quarterback coming off a back injury who will be playing behind an unproven, and likely bad, offensive line. We also have an unimpressive group of pass catchers. Kupp is great, but he missed eight games last season and has dealt with a hamstring injury this summer. If Kupp’s not on the field, Stafford has one of the worst supporting casts in the NFL.

Again, there’s a scenario in which everything goes right and the Rams produce an above-average offense. I just don’t think that’s the most likely outcome.

27. Tennessee Titans

I started off this exercise thinking I might be higher on the Titans offense than the consensus is. Then I remembered they’re starting a 35-year-old QB in Ryan Tannehill and might have the worst offensive line in the NFL.

Sidenote: Be honest. You didn’t know that Tannehill was 35, did you? Sneaky old guy!

So what’s the case for the Titans overachieving? One, the offense ranked 21st in offensive DVOA last year, even with Josh Dobbs and Malik Willis combining to start five games. The Titans’ supporting cast should be better than it was a year ago. Playing for a lifeless Cardinals team, wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins still averaged 79.7 yards per game last season—10th in the NFL. Treylon Burks showed some promise as a rookie, although it’s possible he’ll miss the start of the season because of a knee injury

For those wanting to sound smart in football conversations as we head into the season, a tip: Start talking about second-year tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo. Okonkwo didn’t get a ton of opportunities as a rookie, but he made the most of his limited chances. Among tight ends who ran at least 150 routes, Okonkwo ranked first in yards per route run. He has a chance to be a fun breakout player.

And finally, there’s the ageless Derrick Henry. He quietly put up 1,936 yards from scrimmage last year—the second-highest total of his career and the second-highest total for any running back in 2022.

I worry about Tannehill’s ability to stay healthy (Willis and rookie Will Levis are his backups), and I worry about the offensive line. Plus, one of these years, Henry won’t look like Henry. But I can’t help but be weirdly intrigued by this group. I wanted to put them higher but couldn’t quite get there.

28. Washington Commanders

There are some Sam Howell stans out there, and maybe he’ll be good as the Commanders’ starting quarterback. But history suggests that’s not even close to the most likely outcome. Among quarterbacks drafted in the fifth round or later in the past 10 years, here’s a list of guys who had at least one season with 10 starts or more:

• Gardner Minshew
• Trevor Siemian

That’s it. And those are the best outcomes. There are always exceptions. Brock Purdy might be one with the 49ers. There were Tom Brady and Tony Romo in the past. But those examples are far more rare than we typically acknowledge.

Howell has talent at wide receiver in Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, although McLaurin is dealing with a toe injury that’s worth monitoring. Up front is where I’m concerned. Thorn has the Commanders offensive line ranked 31st in the NFL.

If Howell doesn’t work out, the Commanders could turn to veteran Jacoby Brissett. If the defense is playing well and Ron Rivera is hoping to keep his job, that might even be a likely outcome. Brissett would certainly elevate the offense’s floor, even if his ceiling is limited.

Maybe Howell will surprise me. Maybe the offensive line will outperform its talent. Maybe new offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will work miracles. But the most likely outcome here is that the Commanders offense will be bad.

29. Indianapolis Colts

Where to even begin here? The Colts are starting anew with head coach and play caller Shane Steichen and rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson. Steichen has experience installing a QB-inclusive run game from his time with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, and Richardson’s legs might be the foundation of the Colts offense during his rookie season.

But everything else here is pretty complicated. As of this writing, we have no idea whether Jonathan Taylor plans to suit up for the Colts this season, and beyond Taylor, the Colts are thin at running back. Then there’s the shaky offensive line. Left tackle is a big question mark, and Indy’s veteran linemen are coming off a season in which they severely underperformed as a group.

We haven’t even gotten to the passing game yet. Richardson is 21 years old, started just 13 college games, and completed 53.8 percent of his passes last year at Florida. Generally speaking, quarterbacks don’t complete more passes when they go from facing college defenses to NFL defenses. This passing game could be really rough.

But let me be clear. I’m excited to watch Richardson and think he’ll provide some highlights for Colts fans as a rookie. But the learning curve will be steep, and that means this could very well be one of the NFL’s worst offenses this season.

30. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

In the least hyped quarterback competition of all time, Baker Mayfield got the nod over Kyle Trask to be Tom Brady’s replacement. It’s hard to see a scenario in which either player provides Tampa Bay with competent quarterback play.

That being said, the cupboard is not bare. The Bucs offensive line, which was decimated by injuries last season, should be solid. And Tampa Bay still has pass-catching talent in wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. They’ve got a new play caller, Dave Canales, who comes over from Seattle and replaces offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich.

The bottom line is that this team will likely get bad quarterback play, and that means it’ll likely have a bad offense.

31. Houston Texans

As a rookie QB, even being competent is hard. Doing so when you have one of the worst wide receiver groups in the NFL makes it even harder. That’s the challenge facing new Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud. Threatening defenses with the likes of Nico Collins, John Metchie III, and Robert Woods will be a tall task.

So what’s the case that the Texans will surprise us? It starts up front, where they have what should be a pretty good offensive line. Dameon Pierce and Devin Singletary offer a nice one-two punch at running back. And the Texans added veteran tight end Dalton Schultz in free agency.

I would expect Houston to lean heavily on the run game as Stroud gets his feet wet. Things could get ugly—especially early on—but new head coach DeMeco Ryans has to hope that this unit will show improvement down the stretch. The Texans can then add wide receiver talent next offseason.

32. Arizona Cardinals

It’s unclear when and whether Kyler Murray will return from last year’s season-ending ACL injury. What should be clear is that the Cardinals, who own two first-round picks in the 2024 draft, have no intentions of being competitive in 2023 and are very much invested in the Caleb Williams/Drake Maye sweepstakes. A likely scenario could be that they keep Murray sidelined all season, trade him, and draft a quarterback next year.

For now, the Cardinals are rolling with Joshua Dobbs, Clayton Tune, and Colt McCoy, who turns 37 in September, in one of the more dire QB situations we’ve seen in recent league history. They have a bottom-five offensive line, and their pass-catching group isn’t close to being good enough to give the QB a lift.

Maybe Murray will come back at some point and this group will achieve mediocrity. But before then, the most likely scenario is disaster.