What Each NFL Head Coach on Hot Seat Must Accomplish in 2023 to Keep Job

Job security for head coaches in the NFL can be a tenuous thing.

Most folks would probably consider Andy Reid of the Kansas City Chiefs to be the most secure head coach in the league, but even he was let go by the Philadelphia Eagles in 2012.

There are more than a few head coaches who enter the 2023 campaign standing on rather thin ice. Some haven't been able to meet the lofty expectations of teams with annual Super Bowl aspirations. Others have had success in the regular season but haven't been able to win when it matters most. Others have yet to post a winning record—or did previously only to backslide in recent years.

Whatever the reason, each of the head coaches listed here is considered in some circles to be on the hot seat this year. Some of them will probably lose their jobs after (if not during the season).

However, each also has a goal that, if met, should earn them another year on the job.

Of course, some of those goals are more easily attainable than others.

Make the NFC Championship Game

Mike McCarthy has one of the highest-profile coaching jobs in the NFL. The problem is, that high-profile job comes with Texas-sized expectations. Owner Jerry Jones expects the Dallas Cowboys to make the Super Bowl every year.

That the team hasn't made it out of the divisional round since winning Super Bowl XXX in 1995 can't sit well with him.

In March, McCarthy told reporters that Jones assured him he would be in Dallas for the long haul:

"As far as my relationship with Jerry ... we are in an excellent spot. The partnership that we have, he's excited about. He told me a number of times this week that he wants me to coach here as long as coach (Tom) Landry did.

"I feel really good about our relationship. I think our ability to discuss and disagree, we do a good job at that. I think that's important."

That's all well and good, but the reality is that after another postseason disappointment last year, offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was let go and McCarthy assumed play-calling duties. The Cowboys offense is his now. For better or worse.

To be fair, the Cowboys should be a very good team in 2023—there's no shortage of talent on both sides of the ball. But unless McCarthy can lead that talent on a deep playoff run this year, he's likely to leave Dallas the same way Landry did.

Fired by Jerry Jones.

Contend in the AFC West

By just about any estimation, the first year of the Josh McDaniels era in Las Vegas was a catastrophe. After making the playoffs two years ago, the Raiders won just six games and set an NFL record for the most blown double-digit halftime leads.

That's not the sort of record teams want to set.

That disastrous season led to the release of quarterback Derek Carr, who was replaced with Jimmy Garoppolo. And after the Raiders blew out the San Francisco 49ers in their first preseason game, McDaniels told reporters that he's confident his team is building a winning mentality.

"I think they understand the way we feel about playing and how we see winning," he said.

Of course, winning in August and winning in October are two different things. And the cold, hard truth is that on paper at least, the Raiders look like the worst team in the AFC West.

By just about any reasonable measurement, Garoppolo is the worst quarterback in the division given his well-documented durability concerns. Running back Josh Jacobs has yet to report after being franchise-tagged. The offensive line is average at best, and there are concerns at every level of the defense.

If McDaniels has one thing going for him, it's that Mark Davis is one of the more, um, frugal owners in the NFL. Paying him $10 million per year to sit at home won't sit well with him.

But given how poorly his first year as head coach went, it's going to become awfully difficult to justify keeping him around if the Raiders don't show considerable improvement in 2023.

Win the NFC South

Dennis Allen was the hand-picked successor to Sean Payton in New Orleans, but he also inherited something of an unenviable task: Following the greatest coach in Saints history without the services of the best player in franchise history.

Allen's first year running the show in New Orleans was a rocky one. While the Saints boasted an excellent defense last season, the offense was 22nd in scoring, averaging less than 20 points per game.

Those offensive struggles led them to sign quarterback Derek Carr, but per Matt Lombardo of FanBuzz, one NFC North executive believes Allen is still coaching for his job in 2023.

"I know for a fact Dennis Allen is on the hot seat," the executive said. "Even with a new quarterback, I think he has to win big to keep his job. I'm not sure he's going to. Honestly, I feel like Dennis got the job so they could keep some sort of continuity when Sean left, and so far that just hasn't worked."

Carr isn't an elite quarterback, but he's an upgrade over what the Saints had last year. There is no shortage of offensive weapons in the Big Easy. The offensive line isn't great, but it's not terrible. The defense remained mostly intact this offseason.

All told, a compelling argument can be made that New Orleans has the best roster in an NFC South that's filled with questions.

If Allen can't lead that roster to a division title, his second season as Saints head coach will likely be his last.

Make the Playoffs

Not that long ago, Kevin Stefanski was one of the hottest coaches in the NFL. After leading the Cleveland Browns to the postseason for first time since 2002 in 2020, he was named the NFL's Coach of the Year.

Life comes at you fast in the NFL, though, and after going 15-19 the past two seasons, the 41-year-old's job security is open to debate.

The Browns aren't short on talent. Cleveland has, arguably, the best running back (Nick Chubb) and offensive line in the league. Elijah Moore was a quality addition to a wide receiver corps headlined by Amari Cooper.

The Browns also hired a new defensive coordinator in Jim Schwartz and completely revamped the defensive line around star edge-rusher Myles Garrett.

But that's part of the problem with Stefanski: The Browns have had talented rosters in the past couple of years and underperformed. Even if you're willing to give the team a mulligan for 2022 because quarterback Deshaun Watson was suspended the first 11 games, Cleveland hasn't met expectations since that playoff run in the eyes of many.

Frankly, it's Watson who will, in large part, determine whether Stefanski is in Cleveland a year from now. If he plays like the Watson of 2020, Cleveland has the personnel to make the playoffs; but if he looks like the rusty and inconsistent passer we saw last season, the Browns could finish last again in one of the tougher divisions in the NFL.

And if that happens, Stefanski is probably a goner.

Win a Playoff Game

Two years ago, the Chargers needed a win over the Raiders in Week 18 to make the playoffs. Last year, they held a 27-point lead over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the Wild Card Round.

The Bolts lost both games, and one NFC executive told Lombardo (h/t Caleb Nguyen of SI.com) those late-season choke jobs have placed head coach Brandon Staley on the hot seat in 2023:

"Staley is a really bad coach with a great roster. They just paid that quarterback, and if they don't win now, Justin Herbert isn't getting any younger. It blows my mind that they don't win. If Jerry Jones had Justin Herbert, that head coach would have been fired two years ago. Guaranteed. What's the difference between Herbert and Troy Aikman? Nothing, in my opinion. They're smart, accurate, big arm, great guys and leaders off the field. They should be rolling, but they haven't been."

The Chargers do have a loaded team. The addition of rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston gives Herbert one of the better cadres of passing-game talent in the league. They have a solid offensive line, and the addition of veteran linebacker Eric Kendricks shored up the team's biggest weakness on that side of the ball. In theory, L.A. has the talent to compete with the Chiefs in the AFC West.

Staley is 19-15 as the head coach in Los Angeles, but the Chargers have come up short in the biggest moments. That's not entirely his fault, of course, but he's likely to take the blame and lose his job if it happens again in 2023.

Make the Postseason

Of the coaches in this piece, Ron Rivera of the Washington Commanders is easily the most accomplished—he has led a team to a Super Bowl and been named Coach of the Year twice.

But while the 61-year-old told Matthew Paras of the Washington Times that he's proud of the roster he's helped assemble over the last three years, even he understands that his time in D.C. could be running out.

"I could be gone in a year. That's football," Rivera said. "I understand that. But what I want to do is when I leave, I want everybody to go and say, 'Boy the roster's in a good place.' … That's great. I want to walk away saying that's what I did. I'm good with it. I understand it."

Unfortunately, Rivera is also in a tough spot. The Commanders aren't a bad team despite finishing in last place in 2022. They just happen to play in an NFC East that put three teams in the playoffs a year ago.

There's talent on both sides of the ball in Washington, but second-year quarterback Sam Howell is a major question mark.

There's also the matter of the new ownership group in Washington. By the time the sale went through, it was effectively too late for a coaching change. But more often than not, new owners like to bring in new coaches.

So, unless Rivera can give Josh Harris a reason to keep him around by getting the Commanders into the playoffs, he's probably right—this is it.

Win 10 Games and Make the Playoffs

Given that Todd Bowles made the postseason in his first year as head coach of the Buccaneers, it might seem odd to see him on this list.

But the 59-year-old is also one of the more likely coaches in this piece to be fired after the 2023 season.

For starters, that "playoff" team last year won just eight games and ranked 25th in the league in scoring in Tom Brady's final season before being drilled at home by the Dallas Cowboys in the Wild Card Round.

Now, Brady is gone, and when Week 1 rolls around, it will either be Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask under center. And ESPN's Booger McFarland doesn't expect things to go especially well for the team.

"That just shows you that they don't feel like they have—to me—the long-term solution, however you want to phrase it," the former NFL star said, per Bucs Gameday. "I think the best thing for the Buccaneers right now is to be entertainingly bad."

It's not just the quarterback situation, either—a number of players who played key roles on Tampa's Super Bowl team like wide receiver Mike Evans, edge-rusher Shaquil Barrett and linebacker Lavonte David will be 30 or older when the season begins.

Long story short, whether they want to admit it or not, the Buccaneers are headed toward a rebuild.

And rebuilds usually mean new coaches.

Post a Winning Record

Since going 10-6 in 2017, the Atlanta Falcons have posted five straight losing seasons, including 7-10 seasons in each of Arthur Smith's first two years as head coach.

Expectations are higher in 2023, though. The Falcons spent a fortune on defense in the offseason, adding multiple new starters like defensive end Calais Campbell, linebacker Kaden Elliss and safety Jessie Bates. They also added a wildly talented young running back in the draft's first round in Bijan Robinson. This is a team that is expected to be improved in 2023.

How improved the Falcons are will depend on how Desmond Ridder fares, but Smith has faith in the 23-year-old.

"(He needs to) keep working on all the little things, but his command's been really, really good," the coach told reporters.

The quarterback has weapons in Robinson, wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts. The new-look defense should be better than last year's 27th-ranked unit. And the NFC South isn't exactly loaded with great teams.

Smith may not need to win the division or even make the playoffs. But there can't be a sixth straight losing season.