NFL 2023 Superlatives For the Offseason's Biggest Storylines Ahead of Week 1

It's NFL opening-night eve.

After a long, dramatic and highly entertaining offseason, real professional football is about to return with Thursday night's 2023 regular-season opener between the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs.

Before we dive into the legit action, though, let's take a final look at the twists and turns of a memorable offseason with superlatives that could impact how the remainder of 2023 plays out.

This time, the anti-running-back movement peaked to such a level that some key veterans at that position held a Zoom call as somewhat of a summit regarding the lack of financial commitments associated with the role.

Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Tony Pollard expressed various degrees of frustration about their franchise tags, and 2022 touchdown king Austin Ekeler protested his pay ahead of a walk year with the Chargers.

Veterans Derrick Henry, Christian McCaffrey and Najee Harris also voiced their displeasure regarding pay for running backs.

Ultimately, though, nobody should be surprised. This has been a mighty trend for well over a decade as teams realize backs don't often back Super Bowl-level differences, usually can't be relied upon in the long term and are frequently found well outside of the first round of the draft on the cheap.

Le'Veon Bell peaked at around 24-25 years old. Ditto for Todd Gurley. Chris Johnson faded after his All-Pro age-24 campaign, and Maurice Jones-Drew pretty much disappeared beyond his age-26 season.

It's increasingly likely that Derrick Henry's best season came at age 26, while Dalvin Cook's top performance came at 25. Ezekiel Elliott tore up the league in his first three NFL seasons, signed a six-year, $90 million contract with more than $50 million guaranteed at the beginning of year four, and has since averaged just 4.2 yards per carry while earning just one Pro Bowl nod over a four-year span.

With those cautionary tales, don't expect backs to start getting paid big money again anytime soon.

The New York Jets have the talent to succeed in 2023. Their mistake was putting all of the eggs dedicated to the quarterback position into Aaron Rodgers' basket.

The Jets are now realistically married to the veteran for the next three years (they'd have to pay him $49 million to walk away in 2025, according to Spotrac), despite the fact that the soon-to-be 40-year-old is rapidly declining in form.

In his final season with the Green Bay Packers, Rodgers' passer rating plummeted by more than 20 points, with his yards-per-attempt average dropping by nearly a full yard and his QBR sinking astronomically from 69.1 to 39.3.

He had a subpar 86.1 passer rating in the second half of one-score games, a mediocre 88.7 rating on deep pass attempts and a woeful 76.2 rating on third down. And he ranked well below the league median in completed air yards per attempt even though he was one of the least-pressured quarterbacks in the NFL last season.

Quarterbacks almost never excel beyond Rodgers' current age, though Tom Brady was a major exception to that rule.

The Jets would have been better off investing in a less-established QB in his prime, such as Derek Carr or Jimmy Garoppolo—potentially with a non-premium draft pick for cover while not forgetting about Zach Wilson.

All offseason, I couldn't believe how sure San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan seemed to be that 2022 seventh-round draft pick Brock Purdy was destined to be the answer at quarterback.

The icing on the cake came when the team traded 2021 No. 3 pick Trey Lance to the Dallas Cowboys at the end of August, leaving Purdy and Sam Darnold as the only realistic options under center for a prime Super Bowl contender.

The whole thing indicates Shanahan is extremely confident that Purdy can become something special. And yes, the 49ers won all five of his regular-season starts in 2022, but that's five starts, with a lot of support and against defenses that were unfamiliar with him.

That last dynamic won't exist in 2023, and he's coming off a major shoulder injury as well. So, it's entirely possible we'll soon find out why he was the 262nd player selected in last year's draft.

Meanwhile, Shanahan and Co. bailed on Lance based on a four-start sample at the age of 23. It's a hell of a bold move.

It's entirely possible Daniel Jones will become a franchise quarterback for the New York Giants, but at $40 million per year with $92 million guaranteed?

For a guy who has averaged 15 touchdown passes per season in four NFL campaigns and never been close to a Pro Bowl or considerable playoff success?

Why, especially with the franchise tag in play? The Giants used that instead on Saquon Barkley, but they'd have been better off tagging Jones for a prove-it year and caving or bailing with Barkley, who is naturally both less effectual and expensive as a running back.

Only six qualified passers completed fewer air yards per attempt than Jones in 2022, but he's now the ninth-highest-paid quarterback in the NFL.

That just doesn't add up.

This storyline battled the Aaron Rodgers saga for "storyline of the offseason" and found its resolution when Lamar Jackson hit the jackpot with one of the richest deals in NFL history.

On one hand, the Baltimore Ravens would have been taking a risk letting him walk considering he's a 26-year-old quarterback with an MVP on his resume. But there was a middle ground, which would have been to slow-play him using the franchise tag.

It's quite difficult to hold out for long in today's NFL, and Baltimore might have been better off forcing Jackson to prove he could get back to where he was when he won that MVP in 2019.

Since then, he has a mere 92.5 passer rating and has failed to complete the last two seasons due to injury.

It's possible Jackson peaked early in his career and will never be the same, in which case the Ravens will rue handing him a contract that will cost them a minimum of $156 million even if they bail three years from now.

While it was a razor's edge gamble for the Ravens, we have more than enough evidence to indicate the Carolina Panthers were foolish to cough up a second-round pick in 2023, first- and second-round selections in 2024 and standout wide receiver D.J. Moore to move up eight spots for the right to draft Bryce Young first overall.

Only 11 of the 30 quarterbacks drafted in the top five this century have made multiple Pro Bowls. And in modern NFL history, a team has never traded into the top five and landed a QB who became its primary starter for more than six years.

Young could overcome questions about his size and durability to excel in the NFL, but first-round quarterbacks are a crapshoot. Falling in love with one and trading away future assets to land him not only heightens the risk, but it also hinders the player by leaving him with less tools in his first few seasons.

The Panthers are extremely likely to regret this blockbuster draft move.

If we're sleeping on anybody coming off the 2023 offseason, it has to be a Cleveland Browns team that is now finally led from Day 1 by the third-highest-rated qualified passer in NFL history and is only a couple years removed from an 11-win season with a much less skilled signal-caller.

Cleveland also rather quietly improved in some important ways this offseason. Incoming veterans Za'Darius Smith and Dalvin Tomlinson should give superstar edge Myles Garrett a lot more help up front, Juan Thornhill should bolster the secondary, and defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz should help that unit across the board.

Meanwhile, new wide receiver Elijah Moore could become a key weapon for Deshaun Watson and the offense.

The Cincinnati Bengals have had more success in recent years, the Baltimore Ravens have bigger names and the Pittsburgh Steelers are always a hit, but we may be overlooking the Browns in the AFC North because of that.

Sean Payton and Russell Wilson might make sweet offensive music in Denver, but there's a chance the quarterback really is toast following a brutal debut season with the Broncos.

The 34-year-old will also have high expectations right off the bat, so the leash is likely shorter than in other cases.

Frank Reich has a shiny No. 1 pick at quarterback in Carolina, but we just talked about how the Panthers leveraged their future to land him.

Shane Steichen also has an intriguing rookie signal-caller to work with in Indianapolis, but Anthony Richardson has a lot of developing to do for a fairly weak Colts team.

Jonathan Gannon, meanwhile, is taking over objectively the league's worst team. The only exciting thing about the Arizona Cardinals is quarterback Kyler Murray, whose status is up in the air for 2023 as he recovers from knee surgery.

But DeMeco Ryans find himself in a potential sweet spot with the much-improved Houston Texans, who may have landed long-term stars early in the draft with C.J. Stroud and Will Anderson Jr. And because of the Deshaun Watson trade with Cleveland, they still have a first-round pick next year.

Houston might not be on the brink of contending, but that also takes some pressure off of Ryans as he works on developing a young but talented roster with a high ceiling. It's a good spot, and the 39-year-old appears to have what it takes to be a superb NFL head coach.