Four Thoughts on Team USA’s Collapse and the 2023 FIBA World Cup

Dillon Brooks dropped 39 points and elicited MVP chants in a victory that should serve as a wake-up call for the United States men’s basketball hierarchy. While it’s easy to say that the U.S. would have steamrolled the competition if it had sent its best players to the 2023 FIBA World Cup, the reality is that there was still enough talent on this year’s Team USA squad to have secured gold, let alone any medal, and it came up embarrassingly empty.

It’s difficult to lay the blame solely on the players when the roster, strategy, and lineups were crafted by a formidable trio in head coach Steve Kerr, managing director Grant Hill, and team director Sean Ford.

Jaren Jackson Jr., for instance, was criticized throughout the tournament for his rebounding shortcomings, which is somewhat valid given his 6-foot-11 frame. However, it’s been clear for years that he’s essentially a shot-blocking wing in a big man’s body, so he was obviously miscast as USA’s starting center. Jackson is best used as a roaming power forward, seeking to block shots on defense and spacing the floor on offense while a beefier teammate handles the interior work at center. Steven Adams fills this role perfectly for the Grizzlies, yet Walker Kessler was the lone traditional center on this year’s team. Not that Kessler was going to be a savior anyway, but Kerr didn’t try even a single lineup featuring Kessler and Jackson. When Kessler did get on the floor, he was teamed with Paolo Banchero, another small-ball center option, and Bobby Portis, who is a solid rotation player for the Bucks but inferior to a plethora of American big men who were noticeably absent.

Given the tournament’s emphasis on physicality, it’s strange that Kerr continually trotted out small lineups, including a five-guard lineup in the team’s overtime loss to Canada. The U.S. just didn’t have enough players who handle the dirty work, limiting lineup diversity. While Austin Reaves was being hunted on defense, where were defensive stalwarts like Herb Jones and Jaden McDaniels? Were hustlers like Tari Eason and Immanuel Quickley unavailable? The U.S. had plenty of scoring, but it didn’t have much else.

The responsibility for these decisions falls on the United States brain trust. And perhaps, if tryouts were mandated, a more balanced roster could have been assembled. Instead, it was overloaded with ball-dominant scorers like Anthony Edwards, Jalen Brunson, and Brandon Ingram.

It’s fair to criticize grassroots programs such as AAU for their impact on player development, but it’s inaccurate to claim that Americans universally lack a defensive mindset or willingness to do the game’s grunt work. There are plenty of American players who fit that description, including 2023 team members Mikal Bridges and Josh Hart, but this roster had too much redundancy overall.

The United States has won only two of the last six FIBA golds, compared with five of the last six Olympics. Top players often skip FIBA tournaments, regardless of country, but the U.S. is ceding ground on its claim to basketball dominance.

In the 2024 Paris Olympics, a lackluster performance would add another layer of urgency to the situation. But unlike at the World Cup, the U.S. should be able to field a team of stars. Shams Charania reported today that LeBron James wants to represent Team USA next summer and is recruiting other future Hall of Famers like Steph Curry and Kevin Durant to join him. Still, the fact that the U.S. might need its aging stars to carry it to gold is a telling sign of the times. Relying on veteran talent could yield immediate success but may also be only a stopgap solution that ignores underlying issues. It’s crucial for the U.S. to balance the allure of immediate victories with the need for sustainable success, which includes nurturing young talent and adapting to the evolving landscape of international basketball.

Most international teams, some with years of experience coming up together in a system emphasizing teamwork, will have better chemistry than the hastily assembled American squads. International stars who sat out this year’s World Cup, like Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jamal Murray, could also potentially represent their countries, further closing the gap of top-end talent between the U.S. and other countries. Joel Embiid could even join France, though he’s also being recruited by the United States after he gained citizenship last year. Regardless, gold is far from guaranteed for the United States.

If Team USA fails to take home Paris’s top prize, the U.S. players, coaches, and executives will need to confront uncomfortable truths about American basketball’s waning dominance. That kind of result would necessitate a serious reevaluation of the team’s leadership and philosophy. Hill’s suitability for roster construction and Kerr’s tactical rigidity will come under scrutiny. For American players contemplating whether to join the team for next year’s Olympics, the decision now also carries the pressure of reasserting their country’s global standing. If it gets anything less than gold, the U.S. risks losing not just the Games, but also its long-held identity as the epicenter of the basketball world.

And now, some quick-hit thoughts on the players and teams that did medal at the 2023 FIBA World Cup:

Franz Wagner Is on the Map

Germany’s undefeated run to World Cup gold was spearheaded by Dennis Schröder, but the breakout star was Wagner, the third-year Magic forward who missed four FIBA games but starred in four others. Wagner can do everything on the floor while standing at 6-foot-10. His potential ascent to stardom should help attract more fans to tune in to Orlando games next season.

Wagner is a versatile playmaker who has the ability to create out of pick-and-rolls, isolations, and post-ups, which is compounded by his selflessness as a screener, cutter, and passer. On defense, he’s switchable across positions. Kerr must have been ruing the day the Warriors opted for the raw Jonathan Kuminga over Wagner, especially after Wagner’s performance against Team USA, which helped Germany to advance to the title game.

I’ve been high on Wagner for quite some time now. Last season, I told my Mismatch cohost, Chris Vernon, that Wagner could someday become a top-20 player. In a 2021 redraft, he could easily go first—ahead of even Cade Cunningham, Evan Mobley, and Scottie Barnes. That’s no shade to them; it just speaks to his ceiling and all the things he can do. And it’s legitimate to debate whether you’d take Wagner or his no. 1 pick teammate Banchero for the next 10 years. Banchero is an inferior shooter and defender at this stage, and he’s only 15 months younger than Wagner. Both are excellent players. But Wagner’s World Cup performance should finally help him get the attention he deserves.

Did Nikola Jovic’s Value Increase?

Trade talks involving Damian Lillard have gone quiet of late, with the Trail Blazers seemingly holding out hope for a better offer than what the Heat currently have on the table. One of the players likely involved in those negotiations is Jovic, a second-year Heat forward who impressed during Serbia’s silver-medal run.

Jovic stands at 6-foot-10 and logged 21 assists and only eight turnovers over the tournament; he made immediate reads off closeouts, cuts, and transition plays. Jovic grew up playing guard, so it was encouraging to see his knack for quick decision-making translate to a big stage.

His shot from behind the arc has always been a question with Jovic. Although he made 42.3 percent of his 3s, this was skewed by two hot shooting games. He made all five tries in one game, 60 percent in another, and then only three of 16 in his other five games (including one of four in the final).

No matter who the 20-year-old Jovic is playing for next season, consistent shooting will be crucial for him. Still, his FIBA performance should encourage Miami fans and Serbians. If Nikola Jokic joins the Serbian national team for the Olympics, the synergy between him and Jovic could produce some electrifying plays—and more medals.

Dillon Brooks’s 3-Point Surge: Fluke or Future?

Canada won its first medal in 87 years in part because Brooks had the game of his life against the U.S., missing only one of his eight attempts from behind the arc on his way to a game-high 39 points. That completed a scorching World Cup performance for him in which he made 59 percent of his 34 3-point attempts. After he made only 32.1 percent of his 3s over his last two regular seasons with the Grizzlies (and just 30.7 percent in the playoffs), has Brooks turned a corner, or was this just a ridiculous hot streak?

From what I can tell, Brooks’s mechanics don’t look any different from before. He has the same wide stance. Perhaps there’s a minor difference in his hands or where his eyes are focused. The safe bet, though, is that this was just another stretch in which he couldn’t miss—he’s had them before in his career.

However, if this performance indicates genuine progress, it could significantly alter his career trajectory, especially as he joins the Rockets this season. With Houston, he’ll be sharing the floor with a bunch of players who can generate offense in different ways: Fred VanVleet and Jalen Green use pick-and-rolls, Alperen Sengun has handoffs, and second-year forward Jabari Smith and rookie guard Amen Thompson make a myriad of other plays. It’s vital for Brooks to be an effective floor spacer, in addition to providing his vise-grip defense.

I’ve been as critical of Brooks as anyone. Before he signed his four-year, $86 million contract with the Rockets, I said that I wouldn’t even want him for the veteran minimum based on his shoddy selection and terrible 3-point shooting with the Grizzlies. But if this World Cup performance is a sign of progress, I will soon find myself eating those words.

SGA for MVP?

After Canada beat the United States in Saturday’s bronze-medal game, Reaves said that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who scored 31 points in the clash, will one day “be in the race for MVP.”

But SGA already finished fifth in last season’s MVP voting and was first-team All-NBA—and he looks even better now. We already knew him as a devastating downhill attacker who can finish creatively around the basket and live at the free throw line. And he’s a midrange savant—the step-through teardrop he had against the United States was godly, and then in overtime, he made Bridges fall with his stepback. Gilgeous-Alexander was so dominant that the U.S. began doubling, trapping, or blitzing him every time he got a touch. But it wasn’t just the scoring; it was his playmaking that looks more advanced.

In his last game alone, he logged 12 assists, including a whipped left-handed cross-court bull’s-eye, a fake jumper to draw a defender midair, and multiple composed finds out of pressure.

The Thunder had one of the best young cores in basketball last season, and now Chet Holmgren is set to return. If SGA makes any progress in building on what he accomplished with Team Canada, then the Thunder will be one of the big surprises of the year.