Everything to Know on MLB Playoff 2023 Races, Tiebreakers, Best Matchups, More

It's all come down to one last week. The end of Major League Baseball's 2023 regular season arrives this Sunday, and then it will be on to the postseason.

Here is everything you need to know, plus a few things you perhaps didn't realize you wanted to know.

On the agenda are rundowns of where the playoff races in the American League and National League stand, as well as which teams hold tiebreakers, which players and clubs are hot and the big question looming over the playoffs.

To spice things up, there are also matchup wish lists for the AL and NL brackets and the World Series. Because, why not?

Matchups if the Season Ended Today

First-round byes: Baltimore Orioles (1)^ and Texas Rangers (2)

Wild Card Series 1: Toronto Blue Jays (5) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (4)^

Wild Card Series 2: Houston Astros (6) vs. Minnesota Twins (3)*

*Clinched division

^Clinched playoffs

What's Still Up for Grabs?

No. 1 Seed and AL East: Orioles (97-59) lead Rays (95-62) by 2.5 G

AL West: Rangers (87-68) lead Astros (85-71) by 2.5 G and Seattle Mariners (84-71) by 3.0 G

Wild-Card Standings

1. Rays (95-62): +9.5 G
2. Blue Jays (87-69): +2.0 G
3. Astros (85-71): -- G
4. Mariners (84-71): 0.5 GB

The Orioles haven't won the AL East or claimed the No. 1 seed in the AL playoffs just yet, but least they're done with games against other winning teams. The Rays have three more against a Blue Jays squad that just took two of three from them this past weekend.

Meanwhile, to say that the AL West has a lot riding on this week would be underselling it.

The Astros and Mariners will play a three-game set at T-Mobile Park from Monday to Wednesday, and then the Rangers come to Seattle for four. Unless the Blue Jays fall flat, these games will determine which two of the Astros, Mariners and Rangers will move on and which one will go home.

How It Works

When the MLB playoffs expanded from 10 to 12 teams last season, the so-called "Game 163" became a thing of the past. Any necessary tiebreakers are now determined by the following:

1. Head-to-head records
2. Intra-division records
3. Inter-division records
4. Last half of intra-league games
5. Last half of intra-league games, plus X number of games until the tie is broken

Key Head-to-Head Records

• Orioles: 8-5 vs. Rays
• Rangers: 8-1 vs. Mariners, 6-1 vs. Blue Jays
  
• Blue Jays: 4-3 vs. Astros
• Astros: 9-4 vs. Rangers
  
• Mariners: 8-2 vs. Astros, 4-3 vs. Twins
• Twins: 4-2 vs. Astros, 5-2 vs. Rangers
  

The season series between the Rangers and Mariners isn't finished, but Texas clinched it by sweeping Seattle over the weekend. The bright side for the Mariners is that they've likewise already claimed victory in their season series against Houston.

Season series that ended in 3-3 ties include Orioles vs. Astros, Blue Jays vs. Mariners and Rays vs. Astros. In the event of ties between those teams, the tiebreakers would go to Baltimore, Seattle and Houston by way of their intra-division records.

Hottest Hitters

CF Julio Rodríguez, Seattle Mariners

Even if he's hit the skids in the last week or so, J-Rod has still been the best player in the American League since the All-Star break by way of a .332 average, 18 home runs and 14 stolen bases.

DH Yordan Álvarez and 2B Jose Altuve, Houston Astros

The Astros have been up and down in September, but it's been all up for their two best hitters. Their combined output for the month consists of a 1.043 OPS and 13 home runs.

Hottest Pitchers

RHP Kyle Bradish and RHP Grayson Rodriguez, Baltimore Orioles

It's the Orioles' offense that gets the bulk of the press, but these two have been nails in the second half. Put together, they have a 2.66 ERA with 148 strikeouts against 39 walks.

RHP Bryan Abreu, Houston Astros

With Ryan Pressly suddenly looking vulnerable, Dusty Baker may have to think about sending more save opportunities Abreu's way. He hasn't been scored on in his last 24 outings.

Hottest Teams

Baltimore Orioles

In addition to having the AL's best record, the Orioles are on a league-best 43-24 run in the second half and holding firm with a 14-9 showing in September.

Texas Rangers

The Rangers went through the grinder between Aug. 16 and Sep. 8, losing 16 out of 20 to put their playoff chances in real danger. But they are now leading the AL West on the strength of an 11-4 run.

1. Orioles vs. Rays

As of now, these clubs could meet in the division series if the Rays survive the wild-card series. If that does happen, it wouldn't merely be a showdown between the two best teams in the American League.

The season series between the Orioles and Rays was shockingly balanced despite the former's 8-5 record. Both sides scored exactly 48 runs against each other.

2. Mariners vs. Astros

The Astros may have swept the Mariners in the division series last year, but Seattle made them work for it. All three games were decided by two runs or fewer, and the last of them wasn't decided until the 18th inning.

The Mariners have played the Astros in 2023 as if they want revenge, not only winning eight out of 10 but also outscoring them 53-27. It would be fascinating to see if they could carry that over to October to properly dethrone the World Series champs.

3. Blue Jays vs. Rangers

José Bautista and Rougned Odor are long gone, but memories of the times these clubs met in the division series in 2015 and 2016 still linger.

A rematch in 2023 would have the potential for similar drama, if for no other reason than neither the Blue Jays nor the Rangers lack star power. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Matt Chapman, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis García all on the same field? Yeah, sounds good.

Matchups if the Season Ended Today

First-round byes: Atlanta (1)* and Los Angeles Dodgers (2)*

Wild Card Series 1: Arizona Diamondbacks (5) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (4)

Wild Card Series 2: Chicago Cubs (6) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (3)^

*Clinched division

^Clinched playoffs

What's Still Up for Grabs?

No. 1 Seed: Atlanta (100-56) leads Dodgers (96-59) by 3.5 G

NL Central: Brewers (88-68) lead Cubs (82-74) by 6.0 G

Wild-Card Standings

1. Phillies (87-69): +5.0 G
2. Diamondbacks (82-73): +0.5 G
3. Cubs (82-74): -- G
4. Miami Marlins (81-75): 1.0 GB
5. Cincinnati Reds (80-77): 2.5 GB
6. San Francisco Giants, San Diego Padres (77-79): 5.0 GB

One more win or one more Cubs loss is all the Brewers need to clinch the NL Central, so the real drama in the National League is pretty much all in the wild-card race.

The Phillies are relatively safe in the top spot, especially with six games opposite the Pirates and Mets to close out their season. The Marlins also end their season against those two clubs. Albeit on the road, the Reds are in for a similar soft landing with five against the Guardians and Cardinals.

The Diamondbacks and Cubs aren't so lucky. The former will close their year with three against Houston at Chase Field, while the Cubs finish on the road with six against Atlanta and Milwaukee.

The Giants and Padres, meanwhile, will face each other for three games at Oracle Park to start the week. After that, the Giants host the Dodgers for three, and the Padres will wrap up their season with three more on the road against the White Sox.

Key Head-to-Head Records

• Atlanta: 4-3 vs. LAD
• Brewers: 4-2 vs. PHI
  
• Phillies: 5-1 vs. CHC, 4-3 vs. ARI
  
• Diamondbacks: 7-6 vs. SFG, 7-6 vs. SDP, 6-1 vs. CHC
  
• Cubs: 5-1 vs. SFG, 4-3 vs. SDP
  
• Marlins: 7-6 vs. PHI, 4-2 vs. CHC, 4-2 vs. ARI
  
• Reds: 7-6 vs. CHC, 4-3 vs. ARI
  
• Giants: 4-3 vs. CIN
  
• Padres: 4-2 vs. MIA

Relevant season series that remain unfinished involve the Brewers and Cubs, and the Giants and Padres. The former is tied at five wins apiece. The latter is in favor of the Padres, who have won six out of 10 heading into this week's showdown.

As for head-to-head ties, the Marlins split their season series against both the Reds and the Giants. Their 25-24 intra-division record would give them a tiebreaker over the Reds (20-29) but not the Giants (24-22).

The Reds also tied their season series against the Padres and would lose an intra-division tiebreaker by way of San Diego's 25-24 record in the NL West.

Hottest Hitters

RF Mookie Betts and 1B Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers

Though Betts has slowed somewhat in September, these two have had the Dodgers firmly on their backs throughout the second half with a combined 1.020 OPS.

RF Ronald Acuña Jr. and 1B Matt Olson, Atlanta

Not to be outdone, these two have been even hotter in the second half to the tune of a 1.060 OPS and 43 long balls.

RF Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs

It hasn't been all smooth sailing for the Cubs in September, but they'd probably be a lot worse off without Suzuki. He's greeted the season's final month with a 1.162 OPS and seven homers.

Hottest Pitchers

RHP Freddy Peralta and RHP Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

Think Corbin Burnes is Milwaukee's best pitcher? Not these days. Peralta has a 2.46 ERA over his last 11 starts and Woodruff's last six outings have yielded a 1.85 ERA.

RHP Spencer Strider, Atlanta

Strider only has a 3.99 ERA since the start of August, but two six-run duds skew that number a tad. More telling is that he's struck out 75 batters and allowed only 42 hits in 58.2 innings.

RHP Ryan Brasier and RHP Brusdar Graterol, Los Angeles Dodgers

It's largely thanks to these two that the Dodgers bullpen has a 2.22 ERA in the second half. Combined, they've made 55 appearances and allowed two earned runs in 53.2 innings.

Hottest Teams

Los Angeles Dodgers

At 44-21, they've been the best team in the National League since the break and it's not especially close. They've also won seven of nine since a rough start to September.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers were in danger of falling behind in the NL Central for a second there in early August, but so much for that. They've won 27 out of 41, putting up a 2.96 ERA in the process.

1. Phillies vs. Atlanta

The regular-season series between these two doesn't look that great on paper, as Atlanta won eight of 13 and outscored the Phillies by 16 runs.

Off paper, though, the beef between these two teams is spicy indeed. And as we all know, the only thing better than a playoff showdown is one between two teams that can't stand each other.

2. Brewers vs. Dodgers

There isn't a whole lot of connective tissue between these two teams and the clubs that met in the Championship Series in 2018, but a rematch is a rematch is a rematch.

Even better, this is the best bet for a pitching extravaganza in this year's playoffs. The Brewers and Dodgers rank first and second in ERA since the All-Star break, with the former getting buoyed by ace starters and the latter relying on its shutdown bullpen.

3. Cubs vs. Diamondbacks

The relationship between these two teams is akin to one between some guy and your father's, brother's, nephew's, cousin's former roommate. Absolutely nothing, in other words.

Yet the Diamondbacks and Cubs play similar fun brands of baseball that could make for a good clash. It's less about sluggers and power pitchers and more about putting the ball in play, running the bases and playing defense. Basically, this would be the "New Rules Bowl."

Speaking of the new rules, there can be no doubt that the pitch timer, the bigger bases and the shift ban have made an impact on baseball in 2023.

Hits and stolen bases are up, and the average time of games is way down. Fans have even had to introduce a whole new term into their lexicons: Timer violation.

Now the question becomes: How will the new rules impact the playoffs?

Perhaps the biggest point of intrigue is whether home runs will still be king. Any team that outhomered the opposition within a given playoff game won the game itself more often than not between 2015 and 2022. But that marked a departure from the norm between 2007 and 2014, hinting that the long ball doesn't necessarily need to be king in October.

There's otherwise the question of whether the pitch timer will impact any games, specifically whether it will do so in a negative way. Suffice it to say the last thing MLB wants is a game ending because of an ill-timed pitch timer strikeout.

Who Will Have Home-Field Advantage?

The team had the highest winning percentage in the regular season will have home-field advantage in the World Series. Atlanta is at the the top of the heap right now, but Baltimore (3.0 GB) and Los Angeles (3.5 GB) are within striking distance.

What Are the Current Odds?

Here's how DraftKings sees the favorites to win the World Series:

1. Atlanta: +310
2. Dodgers: +400
3. Orioles: +650
4. Rangers: +700
5. Rays: +950
6. Phillies: +1300
7. Astros: +1500
8. Blue Jays: +1600
9. Twins: +1800
10. Brewers: +1900
11. Mariners: +2000
12. Diamondbacks: +3500
13. Marlins: +5000
14. Cubs: +5500
15. Reds: +50000
16. Padres: +60000
17. Giants: +100000

Matchup Wish List

1. Orioles vs. Atlanta

This would pit the best of the American League against the best of the National League. Isn't that the whole idea?

2. Mariners vs. Anyone

Seriously, whoever. So long as the Mariners are playing in the World Series. It's something they've yet to do in their 47 years of existence, making them the only MLB franchise that's never appeared in the Fall Classic.

3. Rangers vs. Brewers

The Brewers have been around since 1969; the Rangers, since 1961. But while both have made it as far as the Fall Classic, neither has won it.

4. Astros vs. Dodgers

Fans outside of Houston and Los Angeles might be sick of the Astros and Dodgers always being in the championship mix, but it's about time there was a grudge match to settle old scores from 2017.

5. Rays vs. Phillies

Since it was forever ago, the matchup between these two clubs in the 2008 World Series is barely worth mentioning. It's more so on the wish list because both are fun teams to watch.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs.